This presentation discusses the Potential Global Warming and Sea Level Rise; Impact of Climate Change on Energy Use, Water and Water Quality and Availability

1. PhD IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
PRESENTED
BY
JACK ONYISI ABEBE
CDM/H/205/12

2. 
Document analysis: various policy and research
documents and reports on global warming,
climate change, water and energy use were
analysed.
Organisation of this paper:
 Section 1:- a discussion of global warming and
causes
 Section 2:- a discussion of sea level rise and its
interaction with climate change;
 Section 3: Impacts of climate change on energy
use
 Section 4: Impacts of climate change on water
use

3. 
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Global warming is the rise in the average
temperature of Earth's atmosphere and
oceans since the late 19th century and its
projected continuation.
Since the early 20th century, Earth's mean
surface temperature has increased by about
0.8 °C (1.4 °F), with about two-thirds of the
increase occurring since 1980.

4. 
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Warming is believed to be caused by
increasing concentrations of greenhouse
gases produced by human activities such as
the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.
The effects of an increase in global
temperature include a rise in sea levels and
a change in the amount and pattern of
precipitation, as well a probable expansion
of subtropical deserts.

5. 
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Other likely effects of the warming include a
more frequent occurrence of extremeweather events including heat waves,
droughts and heavy rainfall, ocean
acidification and species extinctions due to
shifting temperature regimes.
Effects significant to humans include the
threat to food security from decreasing crop
yields and the loss of habitat from
inundation.

6. 
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The climate system can respond to
changes in external forcing. External
forcing can "push" the climate in the
direction of warming or cooling.
Examples of external forcings include ;
changes in atmospheric composition (e.g.,
increased concentrations of greenhouse
gases),
solar luminosity,
volcanic eruptions,
and variations in Earth's orbit around the
Sun

7. 
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Natural Causes-of methane gas from
arctic tundra and wetlands. Methane is a
greenhouse gas. A greenhouse gas is a gas
that traps heat in the earth's atmosphere.
The Greenhouse Effect- keeps the earth
warm
Water Vapor- through positive feedback
loop
Man-made Causes-Pollution is one of the
biggest man-made problems. Include such
things like burning of fossil fuels

8. 
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Population- More people means more
food, and more methods of
transportation, right? That means more
methane because there will be more
burning of fossil fuels, and more
agriculture.
Since CO2 contributes to global warming,
the increase in population makes the
problem worse because we breathe out
CO2.

9. 
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Sea levels around the world are rising.
Current sea-level rise potentially affects
human populations (e.g., those living in
coastal regions and on islands) and the
natural environment (e.g., marine
ecosystems).
Between 1870 and 2004, global average
sea levels rose 195 mm (7.7 in).
From 1950 to 2009, measurements show
an average annual rise in sea level of 1.7
± 0.3 mm per year, with satellite data
showing a rise of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm per year
from 1993 to 2009, a faster rate of
increase than previously estimated.
It is unclear whether the increased rate
reflects an increase in the underlying
long-term trend.

10. 
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The first is thermal expansion: as ocean
water warms, it expands.
The second is from the contribution of
land-based ice due to increased melting.
The major store of water on land is found
in glaciers and ice sheets.
Sea level rise is one of several lines of
evidence that support the view that the
climate has recently warmed.
It is very likely that human-induced
(anthropogenic) warming contributed to
the sea level rise observed in the latter
half of the 20th century.

11. 
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In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) projected that
during the 21st century, sea level will rise
another 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23 in), but
these numbers do not include
"uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle
feedbacks nor do they include the full
effects of changes in ice sheet flow".
On the timescale of centuries to
millennia, the melting of ice sheets could
result in even higher sea level rise. Partial
deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet,
and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet,
could contribute 4 to 6 m (13 to 20 ft) or
more to sea level rise.

12. 
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Various factors affect the volume or
mass of the ocean, leading to longterm changes in eustatic sea level.
Include
Temperature
And the mass of water locked up on
land and sea as fresh water in rivers,
lakes, glaciers, polar ice caps, and
sea ice.

13. 
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After the last ice age, the rapid melting of
glaciers rapidly raised sea level.
The warming of the atmosphere caused by
increases in greenhouse gases is melting
glaciers and causing ocean water to warm
and expand thermally. Both effects increase
the volume of the ocean, raising its surface
level.

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Linked to three things
Thermal expansion: When water heats up, it
expands. About half of the past century's rise
in sea level is attributable to warmer oceans
simply occupying more space.
Melting of glaciers and polar ice caps-Large ice
formations, like glaciers and the polar ice caps,
naturally melt back a bit each summer.
Ice loss from Greenland and West
Antarctica- higher sea temperatures are
causing the massive ice shelves that extend
out from Antarctica to melt from below,
weaken, and break off.

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May include;
increased coastal erosion,
higher storm-surge flooding,
inhibition of primary production
processes,
more extensive coastal inundation,
changes in surface water quality and
groundwater characteristics,
increased loss of property and coastal
habitats,
increased flood risk and potential loss of
life,

16. 
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May include;
loss of non-monetary cultural resources
and values,
impacts on agriculture and aquaculture
through decline in soil and water quality,
and loss of tourism, recreation, and
transportation functions.

17. 
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The energy sector is vulnerable to the effects
of climate change in several ways, as many
different aspects of the energy industry are
directly affected by environmental and
climatic conditions.
The effects include;
Seasonal and daily temperatures and
precipitation changes affect the timing of peak
electricity demands and the size of these
peaks;
Extended periods of drought lead to reduced
water availability for hydropower generation;

18. 
Changes in temperature and precipitation
affect water availability for cooling power
generators;
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Changes in cloud cover, temperature and pressure
patterns directly affect wind and solar resources
(affecting resource availability or productivity);
Increased intensity and frequency of severe
weather events impact design and safety
requirements of future energy infrastructure and
other capital investments;
Increased occurrence of blackouts may be
observed as a result of higher electricity demand
for cooling and refrigeration caused by higher
temperatures.
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19. 
Changes in precipitation cycles due to climate
change can alter river flow patterns, resulting
in longer periods of drought, thus causing
water levels to decrease and affecting
hydroelectric generation capacity.
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Another potential consequence of altered river
flow patterns is the increased incidence of
elevated flow rates and flooding that exceed the
safety margins of existing hydro plants.
On the other hand, increased flow rates, if timed
and managed correctly, may result in increased
hydropower generation.
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20. 
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Biofuels are among the most promising types of
biomass energy systems in place
For example, temperatures are linked with the
real evapo-transpiration of sugarcane plants in
semi-arid conditions (Fonseca, J. 1984),
(Carrera, Luis, A.; R.1995), therefore, an
increase in temperature and a decrease in
rainfall will cause increased evapotraspiration, resulting in lower production of
sugarcane and thus lower bio-fuel production.

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Wind energy is not affected by shifting water
supplies as opposed to fossil-fuel based power
systems or other alternative energy systems.
Nevertheless projected climate change impacts
are likely to have significant positive or
negative impacts on wind energy generation
given that it depends strongly on climatic and
environmental conditions at a particular site.
Wind is caused by the uneven heating of the
earth’s surface by the sun.

22. 
In order to ensure the sustainability of future
wind energy projects, the identification of
locations where deep changes in global
atmospheric circulation are expected is critical.

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Shifting air temperatures can affect
geothermal energy production in the same
manner they affect the efficiency of fossil-fuel
turbines.
Both energy generation processes are based on
the use of steam cycles, where the difference
between ambient and combustion temperature
have an impact on the overall efficiency of the
boiler or turbine.
Hydrologic changes driven by climate change
undoubtedly impact geothermal energy
production.

24. 
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Changes in water availability will depend
on changes in the volume, variability,
and seasonality of runoff, as modified by
the operation of existing water control
infrastructure and investments in new
infrastructure.
Changes in water quality and
temperature can also have substantial
impacts on urban, industrial, and
agricultural use values, as well as on
aquatic ecosystems.

25. 
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Changes in water quality and
temperature can also have substantial
impacts on urban, industrial, and
agricultural use values, as well as on
aquatic ecosystems.
For urban water uses, degraded water
quality can add substantially to
purification costs.

26. 
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Increased precipitation intensity may
periodically result in increased turbidity
and increased nutrient and pathogen
content
The water utility serving New York City
has identified heavy precipitation events
as one of its major climate-changerelated concerns because such events can
raise turbidity levels of surface water
sources.

27. 
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Sectoral water demands can be expected to
change over time in response to changes in
population, settlement patterns, wealth,
industrial activity, and technology.
climate change will probably alter the desired
uses of water (demands) as well as actual uses
(demands in each sector that are actually met).
If climate change results in greater water
scarcity relative to demand, adaptation may
include technical changes that improve wateruse efficiency, demand management (e.g.,
through metering and pricing), and institutional
changes that improve the tradability of water
rights.

28. 
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Of all ecosystems, freshwater ecosystems will have
the highest proportion of species threatened with
extinction due to climate change (Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment, 2005b).
In cold or snow-dominated river basins,
atmospheric temperature increases do not only
affect freshwater ecosystems via the warming of
water but also by causing water-flow alterations.
Where river discharges decrease seasonally,
negative impacts on both freshwater ecosystems
and coastal marine ecosystems can be expected.

29. 
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Climate change is likely to alter river discharge,
resulting in important impacts on water
availability for in-stream and out-of-stream uses.
In-stream uses include hydropower, navigation,
fisheries, and recreation.
Out-of-stream uses include irrigation, domestic,
municipal, and industrial withdrawals, including
cooling water for thermal electricity generation.
Safe access to drinking water depends more on the
level of technical water supply infrastructure than
on the level of runoff.

30. 
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However, the goal of improved safe access to
drinking water will be harder to achieve in regions
where runoff decreases as a result of climate
change.
Also, climate change leads to additional costs for
the water supply sector, e.g., due to changing
water levels affecting water supply infrastructure,
which might hamper the extension of water supply
services to more people.

31. 
Audun Fidje and Thomas Martinsen, 2006. Effects of climate change on
the utilization of solar cells in the Nordic region, European Conference on
Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources Reykjavik,
Iceland, June 5–9, 2006.

www.ife.no/departments/energy_systems/files/fidje2006/fss_download/
Attachmentfile

Barnett TP et al. 2005. Potential Impacts of a warming climate over
water availability in snow -dominated regions, Nature 438/17.

Bradley RS et al. 2006 Threats to Water Supply in the Tropical Andes.
Science: 312.

Burgos, Francisco, 2007, Concept paper, Energy Security in the Americas;
internal document DSD/OAS.

Carrera, Luis, A.; R.1995. Un modelo matemático para estimar la
evapotranspiración de la caña de azúcar bajo condiciones cubanas. Caña
de Azúcar (Venezuela) 13: 3-22.

32. END
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