2. ‘within the region a sophisticated view of future
demographic trends on the region economic development
strategy and other strategies is required. This understanding
does not appear to exist at the moment, and is needed.
….. it is possible that the population declines in absolute
numbers and that it grows older at the same time. If that
were the case, then this would have repercussions for the
labour market, the housing market, the social and physical
infrastructure of the region, and the current knowledge
based growth strategy.
A population which is shrinking and ageing has implications
for private, public and voluntary sector actors, and needs to
be anticipated in time so as to meet the challenges and grasp
the opportunities’
OECD (2006) Territorial Review of Newcastle in the North East

3. Basics
• Births / Deaths
• People who leave to go to other parts of the UK
• People who come here from other parts of the UK
• People who leave to go to other parts of the world
• People who come here from other parts of the
world

4. Why Bother?
• Council Tax / Planning provision of public services
• Duty to promote ‘good relations’
• Spatial planning; making most effective use of natural
resources & public infrastructures
• Labour Supply / Customers
• Marginal investment decisions (private and public)
• Building size/diversity and agglomeration
• Our competitors are growing – no matter what we do

5. Which Population?
• District boundary or wider? Or more local?
• Day time / night time (workers, shoppers)
• Permanent / Temporary / Seasonal (winter /
summer e.g tourists)
• Students?
• How to define a migrant?
• Can we count people?

6. Problems of Counting
• No specific administrative system outside (inherently
inaccurate) Census
• Role of UK (especially London) in international economy
and travel routes
• Membership of EU – ‘freedom of movement’
• Estimates of international migration are just that – based
on small International Passenger Survey
• How to count internal migration?
• How to count illegal migrants?

7. Population
19
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
19 81
19 82
19 83
19 84
19 85
19 86
19 87
19 88
19 89
19 90
19 91
19 92
19 93
19 94
19 95
19 96
19 97
19 98
20 99
20 00
20 01
20 02
20 03
20 04
ONS Estimates of Population
20 05
20 06
20 07
08
Gateshead
New castle upon Tyne

8. Population Change in Newcastle since 1996
285,000
280,000
275,000
270,000
265,000
260,000
255,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

9. NI Registrations to non UK Nationals 02/03 - 08/09
5
5
4
4
3
T h ou san ds
Gateshead
3 Newcastle upon Tyne
2
2
1
1
0
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09

10. Thousand
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Mar 99-Feb 00
Mar 00-Feb 01
Mar 01-Feb 02
Mar 02-Feb 03
Mar 03-Feb 04
Jan 04-Dec 04
Apr 04-Mar 05
Oct 04-Sep 05
Jan 05-Dec 05
Apr 05-Mar 06
Jul 05-Jun 06
Oct 05-Sep 06
Jan 06-Dec 06
Apr 06-Mar 07
Jul 06-Jun 07
Oct 06-Sep 07
Jan 07-Dec 07
Apr 07-Mar 08
Jul 07-Jun 08
Oct 07-Sep 08
Jan 08-Dec 08
Number of People Economically Active
Apr 08-Mar 09
New castle
Gateshead

11. Flag 4 Registrations
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
Number
Gateshead
Newcastle upon Tyne
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08

12. Thousand
Ne G
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
at
wc es
as he
tl e ad
Ne up
wc on
as Ty
tl e ne
Ga
t es
No he
ad
r th
Ty
ne
So sid
u th e
Ty
ne
s id
Su e
n de
rla
Ha nd
r tl
ep
M oo
id lU
dle
Re
sb A
dc
ar ro
ug
an
d h
2002/03 - 2008/09
Cl UA
St ev
o ck
el
an
t on d
-o UA
n-
Te
es
Da UA
r li
Co ng
to
un n
ty UA
Du
Total Number of NI Registrations to non UK Nationals
No rh
r th am
um UA
be
rl a
nd
UA

13. Total Number of Jobs
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
Newcastle upon Tyne
Gateshead
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

14. Numbers Claiming Unemployment Benefit
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
Newcastle upon Tyne
8,000
Gateshead
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

15. Num ber of Children
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
19 2.5
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
Total Fertility Rates
04
20
06
20
08
Gateshead
New castle upon Tyne

16. Babies Born in NewcastleGateshead 2001-2008
6,000
5,000
4,000
New castle
3,000
Gateshead
2,000
1,000
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

17. Increases in Numbers of Births in UK Core Cities
2001-2008
20000
18000
16000
14000
2001
12000 2008
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
ol
d
s
le
ad
ol
r
am
m
d
el
te
ed
o
st
ea
ist
a
rp
he
es
fi
gh
gh
a
Le
ef
Br
h
ve
wc
ch
es
es
n
in
Sh
Li
tti
at
an
rm
Ne
at
No
G
G
M
Bi
le
st
a
wc
Ne

18. Percentage Increase
N
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
ew
ca
st
le
G
N at
ew es
he
ca ad
st
le
G
at
es
h ea
d
Sh
ef
fi el
d
M
an
ch
es
te
r
Br
is
to
l
Le
ed
UK Core Cities 2001-2008
s
Li
ve
rp
oo
Percentage Increase in Numbers of Births
l
N
ot
ti ng
ha
m
Bi
rm
in
g ha
m

19. Total Students in Higher Education (HESA)
60000
50000
40000
Northumbria Uinversity
30000
Newcastle University
20000
10000
0
2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008

20. Percentage of Empty Properties (Newcastle)
7.0
6.0
5.0
Percentage
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

21. Number of Empty Places in Primary & First Schools
in Newcastle
3500
3000
2500
T h o u san d
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Jan '02 Jan '04 Jan '06 Jan '08 Jan '09

22. C
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ea
s t as t
G le
os
fo
Pa rth
W r
e s k lan
tG d
os s
fo
rth
N D
or en
N
th e
or He
th at
o
So J es n
ut m
h o
Je n d
sm
on
Bl
ak d
el
a
Fa w
w
do
n
Ke
n
W ton
in
gr
ov
e
By
O ke
us r
So eb
ut ur
h n
H
ea
to
n
W
W al
a l ke r
ke
rg
at
e
D
en
Le ton
m
in
gt
N o
ew n
W b
Be e s urn
te
nw rh
ell Wo o
an ol pe
si
d ng
Sc to
ot n
sw
oo
Numnber of Emptry School Places by Ward 02-09
El d
sw
ic
Fe k
nh
W am
es
tg
at
e
Jan '02
Jan '04
Jan '06
Jan '08
Jan '09

23. Average Size of 'one teacher' classes in Newcastle
30
27.6
25.8
25
21.5
20.3
20
Num ber of P upils
Primary
15
Secondary
10
5
0
1997 2007
Year

24. Domestic Gas Consumption Gwh
4500
4000
3500
3000
Giga Watt Hours
2500 Gateshead
2000 Newcastle
1500
1000
500
0
2005 2006 2007

25. Numbers of Residents in Employment
250,000
200,000
150,000
Newcastle
Gateshead
100,000
50,000
0
Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
2004- 2004- 2004- 2005- 2005- 2005- 2005- 2006- 2006- 2006- 2006- 2007- 2007- 2007- 2007- 2008- 2008-
Dec Mar Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009

26. Economic Activity
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
Gateshead
50.0 Newcastle
UK
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
2004- 2004- 2004- 2005- 2005- 2005- 2005- 2006- 2006- 2006- 2006- 2007- 2007- 2007- 2007- 2008- 2008-
Dec Mar Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009

27. T h o u sa n d s
20
0
100
200
300
400
500
06 600
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
ONS Population Projections
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
New castle
Gateshead

28. ONS Projections Aged 20-64
350
300
250
200
T ho u san d
Gateshead
Newcastle
150
100
50
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

29. ONS Projections Numbers of Deaths
6.0
5.0
4.0
Thousand
Gateshead
3.0
New castle
2.0
1.0
0.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026

30. Thousands
20
0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
20 6
0
20 7
0
20 8
0
20 9
1
20 0
1
20 1
1
20 2
1
20 3
2014
1
20 5
1
20 6
1
20 7
1
20 8
1
20 9
2
20 0
2
20 1
2
20 2
2023
2
20 4
2025
2
20 6
2
20 7
2
ONS Projections Poeple Over 65
20 8
2
20 9
3
20 0
31
New castle
Gateshead

31. Thousands
20
0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
20 6
0
20 7
0
20 8
0
20 9
1
20 0
1
20 1
1
20 2
1
20 3
1
20 4
1
20 5
1
20 6
1
20 7
1
20 8
1
20 9
2
20 0
2
20 1
2
20 2
2
20 3
2
20 4
2
20 5
2
20 6
2
20 7
2
20 8
2
ONS Projections People Aged 85+
20 9
3
20 0
31
New castle
Gateshead

32. ONS Projections of Number of Births
7
6
5
T h o o u san d
4
Gateshead
New castle
3
2
1
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026

33. Internal Migration (Net)
1.0
0.5
0.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
-0.5
Thousand
Newcastle
-1.0
Gateshead
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0

34. Newcastle: Net Internal Migration
Annual Averages 05-08 by 5 Year Age Band
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
Thousand
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
-1.0
-1.5

35. Net Internal Migration to(+)/from(-) Newcastle:
Average Annual over 5 Years to 2008
Tees Valley
South Tyneside
Sunderland
400
Durham
200
0
-200
Number
-400
Northum berland
-600
Gateshead
-800
-1000
North Tyneside
-1200
Rest of UK
-1400

36. International Migration (Net)
3.0
2.5
2.0
Thousands
1.5
New castle
Gateshead
1.0
0.5
0.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
-0.5

37. New NI Numbers Issued in 2008
to non UK Nationals in Newcastle
N=4190
France
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Malaysia Slovak Rep
Poland
Romania
India
Nigeria
PRC

38. Citizenship Ceremonies in Newcastle
by Country of Origin May '04 - Aug '08
N=2296
Iran
India
Pakistan
Philippines
Iraq
Bangladesh
Children born in UK
Afghanistan

39. Babies Born In NewcastleGateshead to Mothers Born in UK
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
New castle
2,500
Gateshead
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

40. Babies Born in NewcastleGateshead to Mothers Not Born in UK
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
New castle
2,500
Gateshead
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

41. Country of Birth of Mother:
Babies Born in Newcastle 2008 N=960
(exluding England & Wales N=2333)
Bangladesh
China
Scotland
Poland
India
Pakistan
Nigeria

42. Percentage of Babies Born in NewcastleGateshead
to Mothers not born in UK
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0 Gateshead
New castle
10.0
5.0
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

43. The Proportion of Pupils in Newcastle Schools in 2008
with English as an Additional Language
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Nursery (1) Nursery (2) Reception 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
School Year

44. Be
nw
Births
e ll
an
d
Sc
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
ot
sw
Bl oo
ak d
e la
w
By
ke
Ca r
st
le
De
n
Ea De e
st n
G to n
os
fo
E l rt h
sw
F a ic k
wd
Fe on
nh
a
Ke m
L e n to
m n
in g
N to
No ew n
r bu
N o th H r n
r th e a
Ward
Je to n
sm
O on
us d
e
Pa bur
S o rkl n
u an
S o th H d s
ut
h e ato
Je
sm n
o
W nd
W a lk
al
k er
W e rg
es at
Births By Ward Newcastle upon Tyne 2004-2007
te e
rh
W o pe
W e
e s stg
t G a te
os
W fo rt
i h
W ng r
o o ov
ls i e
ng
to
n
2007
2006
2005
2004

45. Thousand
M
an
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
ch
es
te
r
Le
ed
s
Li
ve
rp
oo
l
Sh
ef
N fi el
ot d
ti ng
h am
Br
is UA
to
l,
C
it y
of
U
Bi A
N rm
ew in
ca g ha
st
le m
G
at
es
h ea
d
G
N at
ew es
ca he
st ad
le
up
o n
Ty
n e
New NI Registrations to non UK Nationals 2002/03 - 2008/09
Lo
nd
on