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31-03-2011 Egyptian Revolution
What's next? And how would this affect the media industry?

2. 31-03-2011 2

3. 3
31-03-2011 Egypt Revolution 2011
• January 1st, 2011 12:30 am: As Egypt was celebrating New Year’s; a
massive explosion shook Alexandria infront of The Church of the Two
Saints, killing 23 people in a tragic start for 2011 in Egypt.
• January 1st-25th 2011: People blamed the corrupt regime for poverty,
hunger, misleading media and general deterioration in living conditions.
Thus leading to such a tragic event and a possible sectarian strife
amongst Muslims and Christians in Egypt. It was the straw that broke the
camel's back. A general agreement to go out and protest were announced
through Facebook and Twitter, mushrooming to the rest of the
population via word of mouth. The event attendees surpassed 500,000
Facebook users from Egypt.
• January 25th 2011: Huge protests bursted out in all of Egypt
governorates, asking for a change in regime..
• February 11th 2011: After 18 days of continuous protests, Egyptian
President; Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down from office.

4. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption
4
Short Term – 1st Few Days
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MEDIA RESPONSE CONSUMER RESPONSE ADVERTISING RESPONSE
 Broadcasters
suspend regular  TVviewing levels increase  Mostadvertisers immediately
programming dramatically cease all communication.
 Onlycertain niche cable  Viewing shifts to news coverage
networks and specialized
independent stations maintain  Print circulation rises.
schedules (OSN, Rotana
Cinema, Melody Aflam…etc)  Split
between governmental and
independent newspapers, due
 Sportsand cultural events to a major difference in news
canceled (Indefinite Suspension coverage and views.
of Egyptian League,
Cancellation of Cairo Int’l Book  Internet
use rises (for the first 3
Fair ) days, before the
communication blackout)
 Newspapers add extra coverage
of event; cancel/diminish other  Consumers' minds are on the
editorial event and nothing else
 No Magazines being published.
 Radiosuspends regular
programming and replaces with
patriotic songs and news
updates.

5. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption
5
Medium Term – Throughout the first month
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MEDIA RESPONSE CONSUMER RESPONSE ADVERTISING RESPONSE
 Broadcasters begin to get back  Viewing
levels are still high  Some advertisers reappear with
to regular programming though compared to normal ads geared to current events
they may interrupt for (patriotic messages)
occasional updates  Entertainment programming
ratings start getting back to  Other
advertising cautiously
 Satellite
News networks get normal, though some programs; resumes as time proceeds
increased ratings (Al Jazeera, Al mainly talkshows may seem to
Arabiya, BBC Arabic..etc) benefit (examples: El Ashera  Advertisers during the revolution
Masa’an, El Hayat El Yom, 90 particularly concerned about
 Sportsevents and cultural Dakika) News programming (we don't
events remain cancelled want to appear to be sponsoring
 Print
circulation higher than the protests)
 Clash
of views between normal.. More people reading
governmental and independent independent newspapers as their
newspapers views are neutral, not biased to
either party
 Onlysome Magazines have
produced their February issues  Internet
use stays higher than
(2 weeks after their scheduled normal. Twitter and Facebook
release date) new users skyrocket as users
want to get instant news updates.
 Radioreturns most of the
regular programming, with  Consumers' minds begin to focus
some additions (specialized on other things, the highlight
programs for the revolution) remains on the current events
though.

6. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption
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Long Term – After the first month
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MEDIA RESPONSE CONSUMER RESPONSE ADVERTISING RESPONSE
 Backto Regular  Viewing levels begin to return to A significant drop of advertising
programming. normal spends of 27% in Feb 2011 YOY
although Feb 2010 witnessed an
 Cablenews networks get  Talkshows score tremendously increase of 58% YOY
increased ratings (OSN for high
Al Qahera Al Yom)  Advertising messages split
 Print back to normal between:
 Culturalevents resume
normal schedules, Sports  Effect
on internet use 1.Patriotic messages (together to
Events still suspended (eg: undeterminable due to natural support Egypt…etc)
Egyptian League) growth patterns for medium 2.CSR Project announcements
3.Regular advertising (with least
 Magazinesand  Consumers'minds embrace the frequency)
newspapers resume more "new normal"--things different but
non-news editorial the same

7. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption
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TV Viewership (Total Population)
31-03-2011
300
250
200
Total Rating
150
100
50
0
Time segment
Feb.2011 Jan.11 Dec.10
Source: Mindshare MENA Mashhad 2011

8. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption
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Top Channels – Rating points
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160
140
120
Total Rating Point
100
80
60
40
20
0
Al Hayat Dream 2 Al Al Arabia Al Jazeera ESC1 Egypt Rotana Panorama Al Hayat
(GE)1 Mehwar Sat Channel Cinema Al Drama 2
TV 1
Dec.10 Jan.11 Feb.11
Source: Mindshare MENA Mashhad 2011

9. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption
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Top Channels – Daily Reach
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35
30
25
Daily Reach
20
15
10
5
0
Al Hayat Dream 2 Al Al Arabia ESC1 Al Jazeera Egypt Rotana Panorama Al Hayat
(GE)1 Mehwar Sat Channel Cinema Al Drama 2
TV 1
Dec.10 Jan.11 Feb.11
Source: Mindshare MENA Mashhad 2011

10. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption
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TV Viewership (by program genre)
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30
15 13.9 Week 6 (6-13 February 2011)
Week 3 (17-23 January 2011) 24.9
25
11.8
10.8 10.6 10.6 20.2
9.9 20 18.7
10 9.2
14.2
GRPs
15 12.9
GRPs
11.5
6.2 6.2 6.2 10.5
10 8.9 8.1 7.3
5
5
0
0
Program
30 28.4
Week 7 (14-20 February 2011) Program
25
20.2 Arabic Serial Dubbed Serial Religious Program
20
Talkshow News
16.0
14.3
GRPs
15
11.2
• Talkshows and News have prevailed as the most
viewed program genres..
10 8.3 7.9 7.7 7.7 6.9
5 • News was more commonly viewed during the
revolution events, however after the stepdown,
0 talkshows is becoming more popular as people look
forward to hearing politicians discuss the future of
Egypt rather than newsflashes and updates
Program Source: Mindshare MENA Mashhad 2011

11. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption
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TV Viewership (by program genre – cont’d)
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30 30
Week 8 (21-27 February 2011) Week 9 (28 February – 6 March 2011)
25 24.0 25 24.0
20 17.8 20 17.8
15.5 15.5
14.6 14.6
GRPs
GRPs
15 15
11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5
9.8 9.8
10 10
7.5 6.8 7.5 6.8
6.7 6.7
5 5
0 0
Programs
Programs
Arabic Serial Dubbed Serial Religious Program
Talkshow News
Source: Mindshare MENA Mashhad 2011

12. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption
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Online – Website Genres
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1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
Unique Browsers
800,000
600,000
Communication
400,000
Blackout
200,000
0
17-27 Jan 28 Jan - 1 Feb 2-12 Feb 12-20 Feb
Period
General Portals (including News) Sports Technology Women
Source: Effective Measure

13. Effects of Jan 25th revolution on media consumption
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Online (Social Networks)
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100%+ growth in traffic over a period of 2 weeks..
Egyptian youth is now online more than ever!
Source: Google Trends – Target Market Egypt

14. Expected implications on media vehicles
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Overall Advertising Market:
A predicted drop of 30-35% in advertising spends in CY2011
Due to the tough current market situation, media owners and representatives across all media vehicles are
imposing more strict payment terms that would hinder the spends on advertising even further.
TV:
1. Drop in advertising spends, only major players will be able to sustain the cost of TV advertising. Some
genres may notice an increase in spends over others (eg: Talkshows and Political Programs will witness
massive advertising support)
2. A notable decrease in the number of satellite channels (Cease of activity for deferred transmission
channels; Melody Drama +2..etc), as TV broadcasting groups will not be able to support the cost of
running a TV station if there is minimal cash inflow from advertisers.
Radio:
Increase in spending as cost of entry is relatively lower than other media, also because 2 strong radio
stations (Mega FM and Radio Hits) launched mid 2010 and have gained massive popularity and are less
cluttered than Nogoom FM (#1 station in terms of ad spends)
Newspaper:
Spends would remain more or less the same, however there is an expected shift across different newspapers
as government newspapers have extremely lost credibility after the revolution, thus their readership will
decrease. The difference in advertising spends will be compensated by the relatively new independent
newspapers which have gained the readers trust.

15. Expected implications on media vehicles
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Magazines:
Although we do expect advertising spends to remain the same on magazines (due to their very low cost of
entry; as well as specialization) we believe that only major established titles will prevail, smaller titles and
startups will suffer from the cut in overall advertising expenditure.
Online:
This will probably be the only medium that will walk out of this crisis as winner (due to the relatively low
cost of entry and very high reach).
Marketing staff have seen the impact that digital media (social media specifically) has had on the uprising
that eventually led to the revolution, therefore it is of high importance for brands to be present to where the
target audience is.

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To spend?? Or not to spend??

17. Effect of cutting on advertising budget on sales
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"If I stop advertising for two months, sales won't drop, but they will be hit three or
four months down the line. People tend to make this mistake in a recession. It is
31-03-2011
the wrong time to cut"
Vikram Mehra
CMO, Tata Sky(2)
Source: Advertising on the edge – The Economist - 2008

18. Why should brands continue to advertise?
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BMW increases its SOV by
sustaining/increasing
adspends during
recession/market slowdown
“Brands that increase advertising during a recession, when competitors are cutting back, can improve market
share and return on investment at lower costs during good economic times...”
Prof John Quelch
Harvard Business School
Source: Advertising on the edge – The Economist - 2008

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What should brands communicate?
Solidarity for Reform Special Offers/ Promotions
CSR Initiatives, Philanthropy projects Consumers become very price sensitive
for reform and rebuilding Egypt. during times of crisis as they know the
economy is not stable , thus they will be very
cautious about where and how they spend
their money.
Henkel hygiene initiative via
giving out free detergents
for volunteers
Jotun initiative for a more
beautiful and colorful Egypt
by offering volunteers free
paint and brushes

20. Do’s and Dont’s..
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- Too dramatic - Major value added to community
- Out of brand character - Shows brand as a responsible player in
- Wrong association of Pizza special the Egyptian society, thus raises brand
offer to corruption in Egypt. image and loyalty.

21. So after the revolution… where is the Egyptian advertising
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industry going?
• Major and quick reform required from all parties (clients, agencies and media
suppliers) to guarantee best interests for everyone..
• Planning: This is an ideal time to be more engaging
and move gradually from one way communication
• Buying: A drop in spend means it's an ideal time for clients
to improve their deals and lock them for 3 years
• Increased interest in digital post revolution results – however; the need of
proper education as to avoid over saturation of medium
• Most advertisers will wait for the political scene to come to a certain degree of
rest before investing into advertising again, especially categories that have
been affected the most (Real Estate, Finance/Banking and Automotive).
• In our speculation, the overall market will return back to normal at least 6-9
months post the election of the new president / government. This may not be
before Ramadan 2012.

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31-03-2011 Thank you!
For questions:
ahmed.emad@mindsharemena.com