SRDC seminar

SMUT EPIDEMIOLOGY SRDC-funded project Rob Magarey BSES Limited, Tully

Epidemiology ,[object Object],[object Object]

Smut epidemic in Queensland ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Smut epidemics: what we knew! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Smut: what we knew! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Smut epidemics: what we didn’t know ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Project (farmer) questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Epidemic J curve Slow start Fast finish Epidemics

Epidemiology methods ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Smut spread ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Predicted smut spread Bundaberg

Smut farms reported December 2006 April 2008 100% infestation October 2008

Mackay November 2006 April 2008 February 2009 100% infestation

Bundaberg-Isis 100% infestation April 2009 April 2008 June 2006

Smut build up ‘in-crop’ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Crop build up conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Yield losses ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Quantifying losses ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Yield losses ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Q157 Yield loss Smut severity vs cane yield

Yield losses ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Yield losses

Strong field variety effects Herbert Variety # crops Variety # crops Q158 154 Q220 3 Q174 151 Q233 3 Q157 67 Q115 3 Q204 18 Q152 3 Q186 14 Q164 3 Q194 14 Q216 3 Q162 13 Q172 2 Q166 10 Q127 2 Q195 10 Q138 2 Q200 5 Q99 1 Argos 5 KQ228 1 Q179 5 Q219 1 Q190 3 Q183 1

What level of resistance is needed? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Mackay natural spread – April 2009

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Field resistance

Q208: a major variety! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

When will the epidemic pass? Epidemic modelling

Epidemic modelling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Epidemic modelling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Important management points ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Overall conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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