Mr. Harpal Singh's presentation

1. INDIA
A perspective on Growth
Harpal Singh
8th March 2012
Miami

2. A TRANSFORMING ELEPHANT

3. A MICROCOSM OF THE WORLD
…And OTHER S

4. BREATHTAKING DIVERSITY
People
Cuisine
Culture
Religion &
Festivals

5. PREVAILING WINDS – WARM & INSPIRING
TOTAL GDP (PPP, $ TRILLION)
GDP PER CAPITA (PPP, $)
CAGR 8.9%
4.46 Hope &
3,616
CAGR 7.4%
4.11 Positivity
3,419
Growth
3.76
3,134
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011
Innovation
Aspirations
Youth

6. PREVAILING WINDS – COLD & DISPARING
Coalition Politics
Parliamentary
Lethargy
Corruption
Health & Malnutrition
Bureaucracy

7. A (potentially) BREWING STORM ?
Human Rights - Ignored
Aspirations - Unsustainable

8. THE ONSET OF GOOD WEATHER

9. INDIA
Future
3 scenarios
1. Bolly-World
2. Atakta (Stuck) India
3. Pahale (First) India

10. SCENARIO 1
“BOLLYWORLD”
INDIA CHARACTERIZED BY EXCLUSION
Integration with the
world
BIRDS SCRAMBLING WOLVES PROWLING
Exclusive Inclusive
growth and growth and
development development
Isolation from
the world
- 10 -

11. SCENARIO 2
“ATAKTA BHARAT”
INDIA STUCK
Integration with the
world
Exclusive growth
and development
Inclusive growth
BUFFALOES WALLOWING and development
Isolation from
the world
- 11 -

12. SCENARIO 3
“PAHALE BHARAT”
INDIA FIRST
Integration FIREFLIES
with the ARISING
world
Exclusive Inclusive
growth and growth and
development development
Isolation for the
world
- 12 -

13. CHOICE IMPLICATIONS
Integration with
the world
I II
Exclusive growth
and development
Inclusive growth and
IV III development
Isolation from
the world
- 13 -

14. CHOICE IMPLICATIONS
2012
Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting, and the National Council for Applied Economic Research (India)
- 14 -

15. CHOICE IMPLICATIONS
In the balance of
poverty- 120 million
citizens
Source: Oxford Economic Forecasting, and the National Council for Applied Economic Research (India)
- 15 -

16. THE BIG QUESTION
CAN (WILL) INDIA TRANSFORM 1.5 BILLION LIVES ?

17. TO MAKE IT HAPPEN, INDIA MUST…
– Reform
– Build Infrastructure
– Educate its young population
– Meet Health needs
– Provide Livelihoods
ENSURE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH !

18. INDIA
Reasons to be POSITIVE
- Inherent Resilience

19. RESILIENCE THROUGH ENTREPRENEURSHIP
Confident, yet aware
of Situational Reality…
Flexible & ready to
change

20. RESILIENCE THROUGH INNOVATION

21. RESILIENCE THROUGH CONSERVATION

22. RESILIENCE THROUGH VALUE MAXIMIZATION

23. RESILIENCE THROUGH INSTITUTIONS
Democracy
Law & Order
Free Press
Civil Society

24. Hence, RESILIENT THROUGH CRISIS
India successfully weathered the Financial Crisis !
Over the past decade, Returns for Investors in
India - 400% - 500%
LSE – 100%
NASDAQ/ DJX – 10% - 20%

25. RESILIENT THROUGH STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
GDP Composition Labour Force
Services
Agriculture • GDP/ Workforce = $9,100
34%
18% • 34% of services workforce Agriculture
Services Industry driving 56% of the economy 52%
56% 26% • GDP/ Service Sector Industry
Workforce = $26,800 14%
TOTAL GDP (PPP, $ TRILLION) GDP PER CAPITA (PPP, $)
CAGR 8.9% CAGR 7.4%
4.46
3,616
4.11
3,419
3.76
3,134
Declining Rate of Population
growth, Rising per Capita Incomes
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011

26. “ I have travelled across the
length and breadth of India
and I have not seen one
person who is a beggar, who is
a thief. Such wealth I have
seen in this country, such high
moral values, people of such
caliber…. ”
- Lord Macaulay
Address to the British Parliament
2nd February, 1835

27. FUNDAMENTALS STRONG FOR LONG TERM
INVESTMENTS & GROWTH
FIREFLIES ARISING
Integration with
the world
Inclusive growth
Exclusive growth and development
and development
Isolation for
the world

28. INDIA
GROWING…
…AND READY FOR THE WORLD !!