1. Food Nutrition in Eastern and Southern
Africa
Agriculture Productivity Drivers
Christopher Auricht
Australian International Food Security Centre (AIFSC)
10th September 2012, Nairobi

2. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People
1. Agriculture Productivity Drivers
in 1998/99, Based on District Data
Cattle
Pigs
Buffalo
Characteristics of the region
Resources
Population, crops and livestock

3. 3
Hunger, Poverty & Productivity
Spatial Covariates/Proxies & Analytical Flow
Terrain,
Production Production Interventions/ Linkage to
Demography,
Environment & Systems & Responses Macro
Infrastructure,
Constraints Performance Models
Admin Units
7
Maize
Yield
Potential 6
t[DM]/ha
5
4
3
2
40
1 30
20
0 10
Irrigation
0
100 Threshold
80 NA % of Available
60
40
Fertilizer Application Rate 20 Soil Water
0
kg[N]/ha
Settlements, ports,costs & Diseases Value of Distribution Rainfed
Slope, travel times markets
Port travel times & PestsAgroecological& Crop Suitability: & Yieldssmall of Welfare Benefits
MarketAdministrativenetworks extent ZonesProductionSystems of of Nutrientsirrigation
Road, rail, river, ICTCroplandIncidence intensityBorer) Quantity Person
Elevation
aspect, drainage
& Units
Drought RunoffCrop Farming per Rural Management, CC
costs (MaizeYield Responses Distribution scale Removed
& Severity
Stem Profitability
to Inputs, Aggregate to FPUs
Fertilizer Profitability
Wheat
Source: HarvestChoice 2010

4. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People
2. Broad directions and drivers
in 1998/99, Based on District Data
Cattle
Pigs
Buffalo
OPPORTUNITY COSTS of resources
(especially land) and labour shape farm
household decision making and evolution of
systems (Binswanger, Pingali)
In turn these are influenced by:
• population, hunger and poverty
• natural resources and climate
• technology and science
• energy
• markets and trade
• information and human capital
• institutions and policies

5. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People
Drivers – population, hunger, poverty
in 1998/99, Based on District Data
Cattle
Pigs
Buffalo
Gradual increase of population for
centuries, until 1950, then rapid increase; +
30 percent over past decade (with shocks
from disease and famine)
Urbanisation
Distribution of hunger and poverty (maps)
Incomes/livelihood portfolios
Gender

6. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People
Driver – natural resources, climate
in 1998/99, Based on District Data
Cattle
Pigs
Buffalo
Claims of ample resources, but
Limited water so far exploited
Degradation
Closing of quality land frontier
Rapid deforestation
Climate change – precipitation,
temperature; variability/risk)

7. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People
Driver – energy
in 1998/99, Based on District Data
Cattle
Pigs
Buffalo
Limited growth in energy inputs (refer
Binswanger, Pingali; McIntyre)
Linkages/correlations oil, fertilizer and food
prices
Intensification requires energy
Local/renewable options?

8. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People
Drivers – markets, trade
in 1998/99, Based on District Data
Cattle
Pigs
Buffalo
Spread of agricultural markets/infrastructure
Poor but improving market integration
Vertical integration especially in high potential
Foreign capital
Past focus on exports; growing potential for
regional trade

9. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People
Driver – information, human capital
in 1998/99, Based on District Data
Cattle
Pigs
Buffalo
New knowledge is essential for households to make good
decisions on adoption, marketing adjustments, ...
(capacity building)
Good example, Kenya ...

10. Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 People
3. Farming systems - informed interventions
in 1998/99, Based on District Data
Cattle
Pigs
Buffalo
 Many assessments of African resource
management, commodity and agricultural
sector, but …
 Low productivity and rural food insecurity
and poverty persist
 Strong differentiation of farming systems
and farm-households’ potentials and needs
 Understanding farm-household decision
making for essential for fostering innovation
and accelerating adoption/adjustment
(Source: Dixon 2005)