Future goggles changes and challenges in waste and resources

Adam Read (AEA) April 2012

My presentation in 20 minutes

+ Acknowledgements
Future Goggles: changes & challenges
+ A personal welcome
in UK waste & resource management
+ The Timeline
+ Looking Back - 1982
+ Making predictions – science or art?
+ Looking Forward – 2042
Dr Adam Read
+ The future resource management sector …
Director
+ A role for the CIWM?
AEA 20th April 2012
+ Closure …
2
Presented @ the CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event (20th April 2012, Exeter)

CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 1


The 3 wise men
A personal welcome
+ Chris Coggins
+ Ernie Sharp
+ Lewis Herbert
+ Thank you for your ‘memories’

3



My sponsor - www.aeat.co.uk Why me?
+ Practice Director @ AEA
- Waste Management & Resource Efficiency
+ Heavily involved with all things CIWM
- Chartered Waste Manager (and Environmentalist)
- Member of CIWM East Anglia Council
- Member of CIWM Education & Training Committee
- Former Chair of CIWM Midlands Centre Council
- Former London CIWM NGG Co-ordinator
+ Former Research Fellow @ Kingston Uni
- PhD in waste policy & strategy delivery
+ 18 years of waste sector experience
+ Self confessed Sci-Fi geek!
6



Some caveats …
+ I can not ‘see the future’
- But I spent 3 hours last
Saturday thinking about it….
+ I am using the past to help
predict the future
+ This is not ‘real science’
+ These are my opinions
- and mine only
+ Humour me… you can disagree
over lunch later!
+ And don’t quote me!! This is not about the beer goggles
7 8



The Timeline in question ….

2042
2012
1982

A 30 year horizon seems sensible
9 Aged 8 Aged 38 Aged 68 10



So what happened in 1982?
Looking back to 1982
+ Michael Jackson’s Thriller Album released
+ Falklands war rages
+ Dallas was the most watched TV show
+ World Cup football tournament in Spain
+ The Satellite Channel launched - now Sky1
+ Channel 4 started broadcasting
+ Knight Rider reaches the UK

11 12



@ the movies ….. And more importantly ….
+ The launch of the Commodore 64
- Home computing for the masses!!

13 14



So what about waste management … Steptoe and son losing ground ….
+ UK was dominated by dustbins and black sacks
- some bottle banks (even less can banks)
- a few council run door to door paper (and
textile) collections
+ Still a few rag and bone men …
+ UK household waste recycling average was < 2%
+ London was leading the way in 1982
- first Recycling Committee / Environment Panel
created by GLC
- first HWRC created at Victoria Road - Hillingdon
- first UK recycling officer Jeff Cooper appointed!
15 16



London’s first recycling officer Waste composition trends ….

100%

90%

80%

70%

Percentage % (by weight)
60%

50%
Plastic Textile Metal Glass Paper Food/Garden Ash/Dust
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
17 1966 1978 1982 1993 2004



So what’s changed in 30 years? The speed of change?
+ Waste Management + Can we predict the future?
- Rise of the large waste management companies - If so, how far into the future?
- Kerbside collections are now the norm
- Dustbins replaced by wheelie bins
- Waste arisings per head have increased + Which model should we believe?
- Recycling rates have soared (by over 40%) - Today = the technology revolution
- Focus is now on organic materials
- Speed of change increases year on year
- Increasing concerns about climate and resources

+ Society - Pre 20th Century = the slow burn
- Technology has come on leaps and bounds (IPads etc.) - Was Roman Britain so different from the
- We are recycling TVs and movies from 1982 18th Century ?
- We are still @ war (resources will always create conflict)

+ Some of us are still here ….. trying to adjust to all things new! 19 20



30 years seems like a lifetime …. Is there any certainty in modelling ?

+ 2015 – 90% accuracy

+ 2025 – 80% accuracy

+ 2040 – 40% accuracy

+ 2080…. God help us….

21 22



Today will shape tomorrow …

23 24



Reality check!

25 26



Much will change in the next 8 years….
+ This is just MSW, what about C&I ?

60

50

Millions tonnes per annum
40 Non-biodegradable
Municipal Waste

30

20 Biodegradable Municipal Waste
Requiring Diversion

10
Biodegradable Municipal
Waste Allowed to Landfill
0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020
28



The urban fabric …. Not so different!
Modern Waste Management … very
different in some ways to 1982 ….

But in others, not so different at all! 30



Hindsight is a good thing …. Looking ahead ….

112 years later and we might be ready to deliver!
31



New Partnerships … Heat mapping: supply & demand

Energy Suppliers Electrical &
• Technology Skills Heat Users
• Grid Backup • Contracts
• Grid Inputs
• Regulatory Risk • Locations
• Infrastructure • Economic Role
in Communities
• Carbon CSR
Agenda
• Forward Price
Uncertainty

Technology Waste & Resource
Suppliers Logistics
• Rising Gate Fees
• Process Technology
• Conditioning Technology
• Supply Chain
• Strong Balance Sheets
34



However, we have the 80-20 rule…
+ The low hanging fruit has been picked …
- Post consumer recycling
- Recycled content

+ But 20% remains
- Producer responsibility
- Local services and systems
- Closed loop systems
- Renting (not buying)

+ What is the cost effectiveness of the remaining 20%?
+ What is the social acceptability of the remaining 20%?
+ Are we (as a society and as individuals) ready for this …..
What will happen next ….…
35 36



Global trends in resource use …. Future resource use ?

37 38



Global commodities …. The recession ‘bites’
+ Metals prices

39 40



Addressing the strategic imperative AEA currently working in this space ….

“ The robust international trade in illegally mined, quota-
busting rare-earth metals highlights China’s near monopoly
on the raw materials for environmental technology –
a 95% dominance of world supply that is likely to

”
become more widely noticed as China tightens its grip

The Times, 28 May 2009

Question:
How will UK plc respond to
this challenge and address
this risk while maintaining
it’s competitiveness?

42



Materials identified @ risk US risk matrix
+ Antimony
+ Cobalt
+ Indium
+ Lithium
+ Niobium
+ Platinum
+ Rare earth metals
+ Tin
+ Tungsten

43 44



Future limited resources – UK focus … Boom in demand for technology metals
+ Critical for our technological way of life ….
Neodymium Lithium Palm Oil

Policy: Policy: Policy:
• UK aim of additional • CCC aim of 1.7 million • Sustainable Production
21GW wind power by electric cars on UK
2020 roads by 2020 Issue:
Issue: • Palm oil is used in many
• Use Neodymium in high Issue: products, including food and
efficiency magnets • Used in lithium ion cosmetics. Also used as a
• 600 – 1000kg per batteries biofuel
3-5MW turbine
• High growth in demand • Reputational risks
• 20,000 tonnes required, expected globally as EV associated with palm oil
world production 7,000 uptake increases production in SE Asia and
tonnes/annum S America
• China accounts for 90% • Uncertainty in long term
production supply – requires • Global palm oil demand
development in Bolivia expected to double by 2030,
• China are restricting
supply especially triple by 2050 – pressure for
sustainable sources

45 46



Global end of life recycling rates China’s dominance – a worrying sign
+ Precious metals + China is a leading producer of:
- Rare earths (97%)
- Antimony (91%)
- Tungsten (81%)
- Magnesium (77%)
- Graphite (71%)
- Germanium (71%)
- Flourspar (59%)
- Indium (50%)
- Gallium (32%)
+ Other leading producers:
- Brazil – Niobium (92%), US – Berylium (86%)
- South Africa – Platinum (61%), Congo – Cobalt (40%)
47 48



Price trends for rare earth oxides Prices of critical raw materials
+ Expensive commodities!!!

49 50



Forecasts to 2020 Media attention ….

51 52



The Government acts …. New approaches ….
+ Challenges businesses to see + Re-design
risks as opportunities for - Make recovery of these materials easier
change and improvement
- Design products that are less reliant on at risk materials
+ Focuses on specific scarce + Materials substitution
metals and minerals
+ New product engineering
- those recognised as critical
by businesses - University of Tokyo has developed an electric motor that can
- especially in the hi tech, be used with Lithium batteries for electric vehicles on campus
defence and environment but which does not use rare earth elements in the lithium
sectors battery production
+ Recycling
http://www.defra.gov.uk/publications/f + Innovation Challenge Fund (Defra & TSB)
iles/pb13719-resource-security-
action-plan.pdf. 53 - Develop local economy closed loop projects 54



Poor Eco-Design! Why design differently?
+ 80% of the cost of a product is
determined at the design stage

+ 93% of production materials not used in
the final product

+ 80% of products discarded after a single
use

+ Design decisions will affect the whole
lifecycle from the manufacture and use
to the disposal of a product
56



Design for recyclability Design for recycled content
+ Focus on ease of segregation + Aluminum – 95% less energy use

+ Use simple materials + Switch from PET to recycled PET
- saving of 1.5 to 2 tonnes CO2 equivalent per tonne

+ Must link to infrastructure in country of choice
+ Card – can put up weight by 25%

57 58



Future solutions? Business will need to act …
+ Out of adversity often comes innovation
+ Recycling will continue to grow
+ Repair, maintenance and re-use will take off
+ New business models are already emerging
- Suppliers retain ownership
- Suppliers incentivise take back of products for re-use or
remanufacture
- Leasing
- Buying what you need (heat and light not energy)
- Buying an output not a product (amount of metal cleaned not
amount o f solvent used)
59 + Closed Loop systems in EU (and UK) 60



And how far could it go? Urban mining offers rewards ….
+ Lets stop exporting raw materials worth money! + Primary mining
- Rare earth metals - 5g per tonne of gold in ore
- Recyclables
- SRD / RDF + Urban Mining
+ Lets look at this holistically - 250g per tonne of gold in PFC
circuit boards
- We have an energy crisis
- 350g per tonne of gold in cell
- We need to generate jobs phones
- We have potentially valuable raw materials that we export
+ Lets think UK and lets make it happen + Recycling makes sense!
- Needs strong Government leadership
+ And what about landfill mining for
- Needs brave industrialists old resource ‘reserves’?
- Needs a fully engaged waste management sector 61 62



WRAP are now leading the charge! 2042 will offer us new hope ….
+ Waste management becomes Resource Management
- Comprehensive collections, EU process loops, greater
efficiencies
+ We focus on quality and critical substances not tonnage
+ Traditional scrap merchants replaced by hi-tech segregation &
reprocessing operations
+ Business risks must be seen as an opportunity for change
- Leasing models
- Closed loop recycling
- Deposit systems
- Design for recycling
63 64



A futures perspective?
Looking forward to 2042
+ HG Wells (1898)– The Time Machine & War of the Worlds
+ Fritz Lang (1927) – Metropolis
+ Aldous Huxley (1932) – Brave New World
+ Isaac Asimov (1950s) – Robot Laws & Psychohistory
+ Gene Roddenberry (1960s) - Star Trek
+ Pierre Boule (1963) - Planet of the Apes
+ John Christopher (1967) - The Tripods
+ Harry Harrison (1968) – More Room! More Room!
+ Arthur C Clarke (1968) – 2001, 2010, 2064, 3001
+ George Lucas (1970s) - Star Wars
+ Philip K Dick (1972) - Bladerunner
+ Richard Fleischer (1973) - Soylent Green
+ Michael Anderson (1976) – Logans Run (set in 2274)
+ Terry Nation (1970s) – Blakes 7
+ Wachowski Brothers (1999) – The Matrix et al
65 66



Dystopian futures ….
+ High rise, pollution, overcrowding ….

+ Crime, famine, war, resource scarcity …. 67 68



"Soon they'll be breeding us like cattle! You've got to warn everyone
and tell them! Soylent Green is made of people!
69 You've got to tell them! Soylent Green is People!”
People!” 70



Utopia or Dystopia? What future?
+ Which future scenario do you want? + Accept that:
- Which do you believe will a become reality? - Waste is an inevitable by-product of society
+ No change - There will always be waste products from our way of life and
- Waste arisings stabilise, markets issues continue, our consumer choice
consumerism.... + However, we are facing daunting challenges:
+ Utopia - Climate change
- Modern, clean, waste free? - Sea level rise
+ Dystopia - Resource scarcity
- Revolution, apocalyptic, breakdown of social order - Population overcrowding
etc. - Social unrest
+ New systems will develop - They must develop ….
+ Sci-Fi favours dystopia....
71 72



So what will we be discussing in 2042?

Landfill bans, Energy concerns, Land values, Personal responsibility,
Resource scarcity, process efficiency, money, resource management …
73



HGV Drivers of the Future (MCIWM)

But only if it is efficient and offers value for money! 75 76



Strategy development in 2042
+ Defra and DECC align energy
security & resource
management policies
+ DCLG is ‘bought out’ by Defra
and local policies become local
+ BIS and DEFRA drive home their
Resource Security Action Plan
+ Rise of nationalist tendencies as
resource risks lead to a number
of regional wars
- Water, Rare earth metals, Plastics
+ UK Government replaced by pan
77 European policy agendas 78



Will Ernie get his answer – what is MSW? We have the technology…

+ This is an ‘engineering’ approach to our problems....
God bless global
warming..... - This is what we hear in classic Sci-Fi shows
I thought I would
be stuck on ice for + But Waste Management is not a purely engineering
another 30 years! discipline….
- It is far more complicated than building a rocket!

+ It is a inter-related economic, social and cultural issue,
complicated by emotions and media, that can only be
addressed by understanding and working with society…
- Understanding is the critical issue
- We must embrace this if we are to shape the future
79 80



Waste & Resource Management A role for the CIWM?
+ 2042 will witness a greater harmony between resource and + CIWM UK grows in importance
waste policy and practice - Membership numbers rising across the UK
- Eco-parks, Renewable energy & heat production - New sectors turning to CIWM for advice and
- Closed loop recycling, Landfill mining direction
+ There will still be a role for local authority waste managers and - UK Government listens (more often)
waste management companies - International agencies look to the UK for best
- Consultants too (decision-making will be hard and resource slim) practice
+ But industry is where the biggest changes will take place - A crop of new resource managers leave
University courses to take up critical roles in our
- Design for segregation & recycling new evolving sector …
- Repair and re-use programmes + CIWM SW still going strong
- Leasing programmes
- Terry March has retired once or twice more but
- Many new entrants to the sector – good news for CIWM! is still attending meetings
81 82



A new hope for civilisation? And finally ….

+ According to Arthur C. Clarke "any sufficiently advanced
“A lot has changed in the past 300 technology is indistinguishable from magic"
years. People are no longer
obsessed with the accumulation of - perhaps we have not found the solution to our social problem?
‘things.’ We have eliminated
hunger, want, the need for
possessions. We’ve grown out of our
infancy.”

Captain Jean Luc Picard
83 84



The last slide … promise!

Catch me over lunch …

Dr Adam Read
Global Practice Director
Waste Management & Resource
Efficiency

+44 (0) 7968 707 239
adam.read@aeat.co.uk
www.aeat.co.uk
85 86


Future goggles changes and challenges in waste and resources

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Future goggles changes and challenges in waste and resources