1. NNFCC
The Potential for Advanced Biofuels
Dr Jeremy Tomkinson
CEO NNFCC
February 2012
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

2. NNFCC
Advanced Biofuels in the UK: Key questions?
• Why next generation biofuels are needed in the UK
• UK strengths and why thermal routes are potentially more suited to the UK
situation
• When advanced fuels may emerge in the UK
• Potential build rate scenarios in the UK to 2020 and cost / benefit analysis
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

3. NNFCC
Advanced Biofuels: the potential for a UK industry
NNFCC Roadmap Project:
NNFCC have examined the potential costs and benefits of developing a UK
advanced biofuels industry, compiling data that will assist the DfT and DECC in
developing a business case to support the growth of an advanced biofuels
industry in the UK.
Project aims:
• Establish if there is a need for advanced biofuels in the UK in 2020
• Investigate the potential costs and benefits of developing a UK advanced
biofuels industry
– The revenue required to support the industry
– The cost of meeting the RED and FQD with advanced biofuels
– The overall value of a UK industry
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

4. NNFCC
Only in transport are UK emissions rising!
300
Energy Supply
250
Business
200 Industrial Processes
150 Transport
MTCO2eq
Public
100
Agriculture
50
Land Use, Land Use Change &
Forestry
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Waste Management
-50
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

5. NNFCC
UK Renewable Energy Targets
• Renewable Energy Strategy (RES)
– UK RED delivery plan
– 15% renewable energy by 2020
 10% transport fuels
 14% heat
 32% electricity
 Encourages use of wastes and residues
 Waste feedstocks have a zero LCA
reference value
 Biofuels made from wastes will count
double
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

6. NNFCC
UK Renewable Energy Targets
• In 2020 15% of the UK’s energy to be supplied from renewable sources
(10% of the UK’s road and rail transport energy from renewable sources)
Road petrol
39.9%
0.2% Road diesel
65 Mtoe transport fuel
demand in UK by 2020 Road LPG
67% mid distillates road diesel
excluding heat/power 1.3% Rail gas/diesel oil
32% petrol petrol 1.9%
1.2%
31.8% Shipping gas/diesel
Air oil
23.6% Shipping fuel oils
Aviation
© 2011 NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

7. NNFCC
Impact of 10% biofuel blending in petrol and diesel
Bioethanol Demand and Availability Biodiesel Demand and Availability
4.0 4.0
3.0 3.0
2.0 2.0
Mtoe
Mtoe
1.0 1.0
0.0 0.0
demand excluding heat
demand including heat
estimated availability
deficit
demand excluding heat and
estimated availability
deficit
-1.0 -1.0
and power
and power
power
-2.0 -2.0
© 2011 NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

8. NNFCC
Potential first generation bioethanol and first generation
biodiesel expansion
Bioethanol Diesel/mid-distillate
production potential demand
Biodiesel production
Petrol demand potential
• Options to increase the use of ethanol
• Options to increase the production of diesel and mid distillate fuels currently
limited on vegetable oil supply.
• Biomass and wastes can be employed to derive drop in biofuels for mid
distillates
– Such fuels are used across all transport modes including aviation and
their use is increasing year on year.
© 2011 NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

9. NNFCC
Estimated UK Bioenergy/Biofuel Resources
Sugar Beet
4,000
UK OSR
PJ/year Biomass Energy (food waste as methane)
3,500 UK and Imported Tallow
UK and Imported Waste Cooking Oil
3,000
UK Green Waste
2,500 UK Food Waste
Imported oils (all types)
2,000
UK Straw
1,500 Imported Agricultural Residues
UK and Imported Forestry Products
1,000
Wheat
500 UK Energy Crops
Solid Wastes (MSW/C&I/C&D bio
0 fractions including waste wood)
max reported max predicted min reported
© 2011 NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

10. NNFCC
Advanced bioenergy projects
• Bioethanol, power and heat from biowastes - Ineos Bio (Seal Sands)
• Aviation fuel from waste wood - British Airways / Solena (London)
• Air Products: Building a 49 MWe IGCC plant incorporating plasma gasification
of waste. Air Products have plans to develop hydrogen production on the back
of this project.
• NNFCC are working with at least two other potential UK XTL projects which are
client confidential.
• NNFCC have identified 750 MWe of potential gasification and pyrolysis projects
in the UK – most propose to use wastes.
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

11. NNFCC
Waste to fuels and Chemicals – Ineos Bio
Biocatalytic conversion from MSW
– Proprietary production of synthesis gas (CO & H2) from renewable waste
element.
– The use of natural bacteria through synthesis gas to clean renewable
transport fuel & valuable chemical intermediates such as ethylene
– A relatively low cost high throughput process that could drive the high
volume segregation of MSW and I&C wastes
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

12. NNFCC
Benefits of syngas fermentation to ethanol
• > 90% greenhouse gas savings vs. petrol / gasoline
• Potential for bioethanol to be cheaper than petrol
• Provides energy in addition to fuel
• High diversion of biodegradable wastes from landfill
• Wastes generated locally converted to clean fuel for local use
• Simple, energy-efficient process
• Platform to ethylene value chain
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

13. NNFCC
Aviation fuel: The requirement is for a “drop in” kerosene
• Expensive feedstock
• Limited feedstock availabilities
HRJ (HVO)
• Sustainability and poor yield/ha
• Emerging commercially
• Expensive process
• Not yet proven
Biomass to liquids
• Demo plants only now emerging
• Potential to convert solid wastes
• Shell/Virent
• Heterotrophic algae (e.g. Solazyme, BP/Martek)
Hydrocarbons from sugars • Expensive, need source of low cost waste sugars
• Sugars available from energy cane, starches and/or
LC biomass
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

14. NNFCC
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

15. NNFCC
BA/Solena waste to jet fuel plant
Gas cleaning /polishing and
conditioning
Syngas
Fischer Wax
Gasification cleaning &
Tropsch upgrading
conditioning
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

16. NNFCC
Impact of incentives on product choice
250
Product value, £/tonne dry biomass processed
200
150
100
50
0
power (direct power (gas engine power (IGCC) from road fuel (at aviation fuel
biomass firing) from syngas) syngas current approx.
RTFC price) - no
elec
fuel value RO value CCL value RTFO (2 certs where appropriate) EU ETS (from 2013)
© NNFCC 2011©
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

17. NNFCC
Economic Analysis of UK Advanced Biofuels
• Advanced Biofuel Cost vs Fuel Price Projections - 2020 ‘Snapshot’
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
p/l
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Ethanol Ethanol Synthetic Synthetic Synthetic Synthetic Synthetic
Cost Price Kerosene Kerosene Diesel Diesel Diesel Price
Cost Price (waste) (woodchip)
Cost Cost
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

18. NNFCC
Fuel GHG emissions
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials

19. NNFCC
The NNFCC provides high quality, industry leading consultancy
for more information contact us
www.nnfcc.co.uk
Email - enquiries@nnfcc.co.uk
Twitter - @NNFCC
+44 (0) 1904 435182
• Future Market Analysis • Technology evaluation & associated
• Feedstock Logistics Planning due diligence
• Sustainability Strategy • Project feasibility assessment
Development • Policy and regulatory support
The UK’s National Centre for Biorenewable Energy, Fuels and Materials