Tyson Smith Dr. Robert Burchell The presenters will provide commentary on the shift from broadbased funding mechanisms (like property taxes) to user fees and special assessments (private or quasi-private mechanisms) as the principal means of funding new infrastructure. This shiftslow economic recovery and an anti-tax and anti-government resurgence. Planners will be facing an environment where infrastructure increasingly is provided by either private parties (think development agreements) or subsets of the jurisdiction who can afford it (think special assessments). This session discusses what this trend means for planners and for society.

1. 2011 APA Florida Annual Conference Robert Burchell, PhD, PPCenter for Urban Policy Research, Rutgers UniversityTyson Smith, Esq., AICPWhite & Smith | Planning and Law Group

2. Presentation Overview Background (TS) The Recovery: US & Florida (BB) The New Normal (BB) Infrastructure Need (BB) Revenue Response (BB) Why it Matters (TS) Conclusion

3. Municipal Trends ‘67 to ‘07 Per capita Revenues $819 to $1,747 (up 113%) Municipal /capita Expenditures $819 to $1,679 (up 105%) Operations increased at greater rate than Capital Background

4. Florida Impact Fee Collections, ‘93 to ‘09 Background State of Florida, Department of Financial Services

5. Florida Impact Fee Collections, ‘00 to ‘09 Background State of Florida, Department of Financial Services

6. Special Assessment Collections, ‘93 to ‘09 Background State of Florida, Department of Financial Services

7. Ad valorem Collections, ‘93 to ‘09 Background State of Florida, Department of Financial Services

8. Capital Expenditures, ‘93 to ‘09 Background State of Florida, Department of Financial Services

10. Until debt ceiling crisis, more markets were recovering value; Fewer cities were experiencing decline.

11. Nationally, inventories stabilizing; reduced amount of new net inventory entering markets. DCC shook confidence.

12. Nationally, foreclosures, short sales, and other distressed transactions account for 31% of sales.

13. Nevada (68%), Arizona (59%), California (53%) and Florida (40%) have the highest percent of sales in the above category.9

15. 2003–2007: 7–20% annual increase or more

16. 2007–2011: 0–10% annual decrease(2005 High)

17. 2012:Beginning 2% increase

18. No significant real estate investment since January 2007; beginning to see some comeback nationally; coastal.

19. Luxury markets coming back the most; higher median prices experiencing lower decreases or slightly faster increases.

20. Yet 10 states, as of July 2011, had discounted prices reflective of foreclosure of at least 40% (OH, KY, TN, CA, PA, IL, NJ, MI, GA, WI). (Florida not represented in this group.)10

22. Washington, D.C., Boston, Raleigh and Silicon Valley have done well in recession and have actually picked-up.

23. Florida falls within a group of states where prices remain depressed and have not yet stabilized (Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada). Georgia could be worst.

24. Yet, Miami, FL and Orange County CA are experiencing significant activity due to the presence of foreign buyers.11

26. The healthiest of housing markets is multifamily where net absorption nationally has been positive for two years.

27. The pool of single-family housing buyers has thinned due to the tightening of underwriting standards by lenders/GSEs.

28. The inventory of unsold new homes nationally is less than 165,000 units – the lowest level on record – 9.3 months supply.

29. The inventory of unsold existing S.F. homes nationally is 3.77 million – 9.5 months of supply.12

31. Debt limit will lead to large cuts in federal and state subsidies to local governments.

32. This will occur in worst year of fiscal solvency for states.

33. This will involve cuts to both new infrastructure finance and regular repair of infrastructure.

34. States will have less than 25% of revenues currently spent for infrastructure.13

36. INFRASTRUCTURE NEED – The summation of what is necessary, what is done, and what remains by category of infrastructure.

37. INFRASTRUCTURE NEED TALLIES – This is usually compiled by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). ASCE assigned a D grade for U.S. $0.375 trillion – 1 year; $7.5 trillion – 20 years infrastructure need costs.14

38. U.S. Infrastructure Need Totals in Billions ($) 1-Year 20-Year Need Spent Gap Need Spent Gap Aviation $ 17.4 $ 9.3 $ 8.1 $ 348 $ 186 $ 162 Bridges $ 17.0 $ 10.5 $ 6.5 $ 340 $ 210 $ 130 Dams $ 2.5 $ 1.0 $ 1.5 $ 50 $ 20 $ 30 Drinking Water $ 15.0 $ 6.9 $ 8.1 $ 300 $ 138 $ 161 Energy $ 15.0 $ 7.1 $ 7.9 $ 300 $ 142 $ 158 Levees $ 5.0 $ 1.1 $ 3.9 $ 100 $ 22 $ 78 Parks/Recreation $ 17.0 $ 7.4 $ 9.6 $ 340 $ 148 $ 192 Rail $ 12.6 $ 10.3 $ 2.3 $ 252 $ 206 $ 46 Roads $170.0 $ 66.0 $104.0 $3,400 $1,320 $2,080 Sewer/Wastewater $ 36.0 $ 22.4 $ 13.6 $ 720 $ 448 $ 272 Solid Waste $ 15.4 $ 6.7 $ 8.7 $ 308 $ 134 $ 174 Transit $ 53.0 $ 15.0 $ 38.0 $1,060 $ 300 $ 760 TOTAL $375.9 $163.7 $212.2 $7,518 $3,274 $4,243 ($0.375 trillion) ($7.5 trillion) 15

39. 16 Infrastructure Need in Context GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES, 2010-2030 (Woods and Poole-2010) 2010-2030 2010 2030 (in millions) Population 65.00 310.00 375.00 Employment 46.65 181.63 228.28 Households 28.10 120.15 148.2 Annual Infrastructure Need ($0.375T) = $1,210 /capita (2010) The above is: 2/3 times the average per capita municipal expenditure ($1,700); it is equivalent to average per capita county expenditures ($1,200); and is 40% of average per capita state expenditures ($3,025).

41. 13% of Florida’s major roads are in poor or mediocre condition; nearly 50% of Florida’s major highways are considered congested.

42. 18% of Florida’s bridges are structurally deficient or functionally obsolete.

43. 72 high hazard dams (can cause loss of life; significant property losses by bursting) exist in Florida.

44. Florida’s drinking water needs $14 billion investment (20 years).

45. Florida has $9.0 billion in wastewater infrastructure needs; it has $8.3 million in unmet needs for outdoor recreation and parkland acquisition.17

46. U.S. Versus Florida Infra. Ratings 18

48. Bridges – Increase personal income/gasoline tax and devote portion to transportation/bridges.

49. Dams/Levees – Look to increased state sources of revenue (increased state income tax / real estate transfer tax) to cover some of the costs.

50. Drinking Water – Create Water Infrastructure Trust Fund at federal level; user fees (impact fees); G.O. bonds.

52. Rail – Increase farebox revenues (passenger) and user charges (freight).

53. Roads – Increase fuel taxes significantly.

54. Sewer/Wastewater – Create Water Infrastructure Trust Fund at federal level; user fees (impact fees); G.O. bonds; public-private partnerships.

55. Solid Waste – Encourage methane gas-to-energy conversion at landfill sites; increase user fees; encourage recycling.

57. The Foreclosure Problem (Jul 11) Why It Matters from Realtytrac.com

58. The Foreclosure Problem (Jul 11) Why It Matters from Realtytrac.com

59. Florida Trend (Aug 10 to Jul 11) Why It Matters from Realtytrac.com

60. National Trend (Aug 10 to Jul 11) Why It Matters from Realtytrac.com

61. Foreclosure Fallout Why It Matters Partially-built out Subdivisions Empty Houses: Tax Revenues Upkeep/Deterioration/trash removal Abandoned Pools Code Enforcement Costs Up Crime Squatting or Reuse

62. Pasco’s Registry Program Why It Matters Registration required Code Enforcement Officer visits each property Compliance evaluated for: Debris accumulation Overgrown conditions Public safety violations Code Enf. Officer and lot clearing funding set aside

63. Federal Response Why It Matters Administration’s I-Bank American Infrastructure Finance Authority: Kerry (D-Mass) Warner (D-WVa) Graham (R-SC) Hutchinson (R-TX)

64. Administration’s I-Bank (until last night?) Why It Matters $30 Billion Start-Up (6 years) Loans (& Guarantees) and Grants Transportation (Road and Rail) Under U.S. DOT Local Gov’t Eligible

65. BUILD Act Why It Matters $10 Billion Start-Up Loans & Guarantees (No Grants) Transportation, Water, & Energy New Federal Entity Local Gov’t Eligible Extends Alt. Min. Tax Exemption

66. Trends in Tuition/Fees at Public, 4-year Colleges Why It Matters Trends in College Pricing 2010

67. Trends in State Appropriations Why It Matters Trends in College Pricing 2010

68. Chapter 9? Why It Matters Jefferson County, Alabama Harrisburg, Pennsylvania Vallejo, California Central Falls, Rhode Island

69. What to Expect: Conclusion Home prices to drop until ~ 12/2012 ~ 9-10 mo. Inventory of new & existing housing Luxury Markets to rebound first Housing-start recovery ~ 2015 Positive MF Absorption Innovative Fee/Charges

70. What to Expect (cont’d): Conclusion Lower Levels/Quality of Service Potential Problems with Local/State Debt Infill interest A Federal Response “Meritocracies” to Thrive Sorting by class, education, politics Pay-to-Play

71. We go to San Diego… “Funding the New Normal” October 26-28 growthandinfrastructure.org