1. ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES AND MIGRANTS API CEFS 2010 1/14/2011 Waseda University Naho Kawashima, Satomi Hyakuya, Hitomi Koike

2. Introduction: what is “environmental refugee”? Linkage between environment and human settlement Present Action Prospects for future environmental refugees Contents

3. Introduction: what is environmental refugee? Emergence of “environmental refugees” Estimated number in future Migration as possible adaptation strategy Why “environmental refugees” seen as a minor problem

4. Emergence of “environmental refugee" The International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) addressing the issue in the mid-1980s. El-Hinnawi (1985): “People who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeoparadize their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life.”

5. Emergence of “environmental refugee" Norman Mayers (1995): “Persons who no longer gain a secure livelihood in their traditional homelands because of what are primarily environmental factors of unusual scope.” International Organization For Migration (2007): “Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversly affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habicual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad.”

6. The former head of the UNEP, Klaus Toepfer, talking of 22-24 million environmental migrants. Mayers suggesting up to 200 million people will be on the move due to environmental factors by 2050. Also noting that the migration impacts would be felt especially in the African southern Sahara, China, Central America and South Asia. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) posited as early as 1990 that “the gravest effects of climate change may be those on human migration”. Estimated number in future

7. Migration as possible adaptation strategy Migration having been an adaptation strategy for interaction of humans with their environment. Transfer of knowledge and skills through migrations contributing to strengthening of livelihoods facing future environmental challenges upon return. Two motivations for migration: government’s inability to react to natural catastrophes: fear that the impacted area may experience more natural disasters in the near future.

8. UN Convention of 1951 referring to any person having a “well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, and nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion” as refugees.. United nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR): environmentally vulnerable people usually enjoy the protection of their governments, and therefore cannot be defined as “refugee” in the strict sense of the refugee right. Why “environmental refugees” seen as a minor problem

9. Linkage between environment and human settlement Impacts and outcomes Climate change as accelerating driver Sudden disasters (storms, floods) Drought and impacts on fresh water and food production The increase in sea level

10. Natural disasters (earthquakes, floods, tropical storms, ect) tend to cause large-scale movement and result in long term migration. (ex. Harricane Katrina in 2005) Environmental degradation at early and intermediate stages often leading to temporal migration, causing secondary social, economic, and other problems. (ex. Soil erosion in Tambacounda, an area of Senegal) Impacts and outcomes

11. http://www.scienceclarified.com/El-Ex/Erosion.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senegal http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/project/projects_in_depth/conservation_program2/

12. When environmental degradation becomes severe or irreversible, resulting migration can become permanent and may require relocation of affected populations.(ex. Droughts in the Sertao region in the northeast of Brazil) Gradual environmental degradation is expected to cause the marjority of environmental migration. (ex. Desertification in Africa) Impacts and outcomes

13. http://sites.google.com/site/piauibrazil/the-backlands---sertao http://www.clir.org/pubs/reports/pub86/contents.html http://www.voyagesphotosmanu.com/clima_do_brasil.html

14. When environmental degradation becomes severe or irreversible, resulting migration can become permanent and may require relocation of affected populations.(ex. Droughts in the Sertao region in the northeast of Brazil) Gradual environmental degradation is expected to cause the majority of environmental migration. (ex. Desertification in Africa) Impacts and outcomes

15. Impacts and outcomes Least developed countries with low adaptive capacity, and countries with particularly susceptible geographies (small island states) are most vulnerable to the effects of environmental degradation and climate change. (ex. Papua New Guinea’s Carteret Islands) http://www.earthweek.com/2009/ew090515/ew090515a.html

16. http://pngtourismnews.blogspot.com/2009/04/effect-of-global-warming-in-papua-new.html http://planetgreen.discovery.com/travel-outdoors/8-countries-about-to-go-underwater-literally.html http://blogs.oxfamamerica.org/index.php/tag/global-warming/

17. Climate change as accelerating driver Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC (2007)

18. Sudden disasters (storms, floods, etc) Number of people reported affected by natural disasters 1975–2006 According to the database EM-DAT, more than 900people killed and more than 115million affected by floods on average every year. 96% of the affected living in Asia. Climate change resulting in sea level rise, intensive storms, heavy precipitation. EM−DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database − www.em−dat.net − UniversitéCatholique de Louvain, Brussels − Belgium

19. Sudden disasters (storms, floods, etc) Great Natural Disasters (1950-2006): Number of Events Source: Munich Re (2007). © 2007 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE (reproduced with permission)

20. Drought and impacts on freshwater and food production The IPCC predicting a decrease of rain, increasing evaporation, rising sea levels resulting in salinization of coastal groundwater, and glaciers melting away. Water problems could affect 74 to 250 million people in Africa by 2020 and more than a billion people in Asia by the 2050s. Most vulnerable are developing countries where large population live directly from agriculture.

21. The increase in sea level Changes in Temperature, Sea level and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover According to one IPCC emission estimate, the sea level could increase by almost half a meter by 2100. Out of 600million people living in low-lying coastal zones, 438 million live in Asia and 246 million in the poorest countries of the world. A sea level rise of two meters would impact an additional 10.8million people and render at least 969 thousand more 969,000 more hectares of agricultual land unproductive. Source: Summary Policy Makers (PDF) File from the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report

22. 1. Displacement within a state 2.Displacement outside the country 3. Assisting program by existing organization III. Present Action

25. Bangladesh->India, Myanmar …Overpopulation in India …Myanmar’s economy and politic under the military regime falling apart Mexico and Central America: Migration in response to drought and disasters …for those who are better off or who have relatives abroad, migration is an option http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/sb30/press/application/pdf/climate_change_creates_article.pdf II.Displacement to outside the country

27. Tuvalua) from outer islands to Funafuti (intra-state migration) b) from Tuvalu to Fiji and New Zealand …Labor migration agreementswith New Zealand, but not explicit policies to accept Pacific Islanders II.Displacement to outside the country

31. Ex) The Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) , The Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) http://unfccc.int/cooperation_support/least_developed_countries_portal/ldc_fund/items/4723.php http://unfccc.int/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanism/adaptation_fund/items/3659.php http://unfccc.int/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanism/adaptation_fund/items/3659.php III. Assisting program by already existing organization

32. International organizations such as… United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) International Organization for Migration(IOM) United Nations Environment Program(UNEP) United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) III. Assisting program by already existing organization

33. Research institutes such as… European Commission project “Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios” (EACH-FOR project, ended in May 2009) Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies Refugee Study Centre of Oxford University Different levels of understanding, the lack of place for these organizations to collaborate III. Assisting program by already existing organization http://www.each-for.eu/index.php?module=main

34. Necessary approach to the issue A need for international framework Introduction and observation of 2 possible solutions Application into reality Motivation of the participants for operation Implication for future policies

35. No clear universal definition of the term No international binding laws and institutions specializing in environmental refugee issue Actions taken by existing institutions are individual and temporal Present attitude toward the issue http://www.tufs.ac.jp/common/fs/ase/cam/komado/camp/top.htm http://www.unhcr.or.jp/html/event.html

36. Prof. Janos Bogardi, UNU-EHS Science Awareness Legislation Humanitarian Aid Institutions Necessary approach to the issue http://www.ehs.unu.edu/article:154

37. Various reasons for the necessity of establishing an international framework the issue itself shifting from domestic to international refugees increasing globally sharing of information and technology for possible prevention and solution capability of risk communication necessarily decreasing illegal migration A need of international framework

39. “human security”-based2 choices for a step forward…

40. Observation 1 : Establishing new institution for environmental refugees Professional Relatively proactive Time-consuming before operation “shortcomings of available assessments point to the need for a systematic global monitoring program, leading to development of a scientifically credible, consistent baseline of the state of (…) desertification”. the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA, 2005b:101) Difficulty in establishing liability Insufficient fund Limitation on scale

41. Vague initial leader in the beginning Accumulating information Experiences from actual cases More possibility to receive fund from other branches Sharing the knowledge among institutions Observation 2: Introduction of the new idea to existing frameworks

43. UNFCCC IOM UNEP UNFPA GEF CEDEM UNU-EHS UNHCR EC

44. Categorization of institutions ・UNFCCC ・GEF ・UNEP ・IOM ・UNHCR ・EACH-FOR project ・UNU-EHS

47. Necessity to raise recognition and interest world wide Reanalysis of the old cases “The ability-to-pay” principle(UNFCCC) “The polluter pays” principle (UNFCCC) Motivation for participants

48. Afifi, T & Warner, K, The impact of environmental degradation on migration flows across countries, Working Paper No.5, UNU Institution for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, April 2008, from http://www.ehs.unu.edu/article/read/working-papers Kolmannskog, O. V, Future Floods of Refugees: A comment on climate change, conflict, and forced migration, Norwegian Refugee Council, Oslo, April 2008, from http://www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9268480.pdf Raenaud, F, Bogardi, J.J, Olivia Dun, Warner, K, Control, Adapt or Flee: How to Face Environmental Migration?, InterSecTions, Publications Series of UNU-EHS, No.5, Bonn, May 2007, from http://www.each-for.eu/documents/RENAUD%202007%20Control,%20Adapt%20or%20Flee%20How%20to%20Face%20Environmental%20Migration%20UNU-EHS.pdf Care, In Search of Shelter report: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement, May 2009, from http://www.care.org/getinvolved/advocacy/pdfs/Migration_Report.pdf International Organization for Migrants, MC/INF 288, Discussion Note: Migration and the Environment, 1 November, 2007, from http://www.iom.int/jahia/webdav/shared/shared/mainsite/about_iom/en/council/94/MC_INF_288.pdf International Organization for Migrants, Disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and environmental migration, 2009, from http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/free/DDR_CCA_report.pdf International Organization for Migrants, IOM Policy Brief: Migration, Climate Change and the Environment, May, 2009, from http://www.iom.int/jahia/webdav/shared/shared/mainsite/policy_and_research/policy_documents/policy_brief.pdf Reference

49. Thank you for your attention!