1. Preparing for the future How can we anticipate, monitor and adapt to environmental change? Mark Reed Unvegetated dunes, Bokspits, southwest Botswana

2. “Where do we come from? What are we? Where are we going?”

3. Fortune Telling ?

4. Dreaming

5. Scenarios “The best way to predict the future is to invent it” Alan Kay “The future belongs to those who prepare for it today” Malcolm X

6. Farmer interview, Werda, southeast Botswana

7. Farmer interview, Boteti District, Botswana Peak District National Park

8. Plan How can draw on both local and scientific knowledge to: More effectively anticipate what the future might hold? Empower stakeholders to monitor changes as they unfold? Adapt rapidly and effectively to future change?

9. Grouse model, Peak District National Park 1. Anticipating Change Stakeholder workshop, Nidderdale AONB, Yorkshire Dales Site Visit, Peak District National Park

10. 1. Better understand stakeholders priorities and model social relationships through stakeholder analysis and social network analysis, and select working group

11. 2. Understand current/future challenges/opportunities: interviews & site visits with stakeholders/researchers

12. 3. Conceptual system model from interviews, site visits & literature; trace drivers to create scenarios

13. 4. Refine and prioritise scenarios for investigation

14. 5. Model possible futures: details, feedbacks, scenarios interactions, ES trade-offs for future planning

15. 6. Communicate model outputs through films that depict different likely futures

16. www.see.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands 7. Find innovative ways that people can respond and discuss ideas from literature (How would you respond if this happened?) Model innovative ideas: how likely to work? Use results to revise/refine ideas to ensure they work

18. All scenarios appear likely to compromise upland biodiversity

19. Already a source of conflict...Golden Plover

20. Recreation Hill Farming Water Companies Interview sub-sample of Moors for the Future partnership who communicate on a monthly or more frequent basis Sporting Interests Conservation

21. Recreation Hill Farming “At the moment there is a conflict between us [Natural England] and the people who manage fires, that we need to sort out. It’s a big thing - its probably the most important thing.” Water Companies Sporting Interests Conservation “I think perhaps the moors are over-burnt and not respected from the point that they are driven too hard and pushed too hard for the purpose of the grouse…they are looking for more and more and more…But it becomes like any mono-culture then – if you’re driven so single-mindedly by one thing, that tends to knacker nature – that’s the problem.”

22. “The heather moorlands… are there because of grouse shooting. Full-stop… Whether we like it or not, grouse shooting is the raison d’être.” “[They] want to paint by numbers. The problem is [they] can’t tell you what the numbers are. [They] can’t tell you what is going to happen.” Recreation Hill Farming Water Companies Sporting Interests Conservation “I’ve spent thirty years managing land and I’ve seen all these things come and go. So when you tell me as a very sincere young man with a great deal of credentials, that your prescription is right, you just listen to me: the guy who gave me 100% grant aid…to plough heather moorland also believed he was right because moorland was “waste”.”

24. Need to foster greater trust between some groups to avoid exacerbating conflict under future scenariosRecreation Water Companies Hill Farming Conservation Sporting Interests “A mix with people doing different things is our best hope of creating some semblance of balance.” Agent

25. Hydrological Monitoring, Guadalentin, Spain 2. Monitoring Change Plant ecology sampling, southwest Botswana

26. Fenced private rangeland next to communal area, southwest Botswana Indicators Examining a thorn bush, Bray farm, southeast Botswana Oral history, southeast Botswana

27. 1 10 20 yrs Yr 1 Yr 10 Yr 20 Thorny bush encroachment in the Kalahari, Botswana

28. Identifying indicators, southwest Botswana Ecological evaluation of indicators Evaluating indicators with communities using Multi-Criteria Evaluation

29. 3. Adapting to change 3. Adapting to Change Guadalentin, Spain Focus group with Kalahari innovators

30. Tunisia Spain Portugal China Lettuce farmer, Guadalentin, Spain Turkey Botswana

34. Business Informing Yorkshire Water, Premier Waste PLC and United Utilities about how they can reduce water treatment costs by reducing water colour inputs from upland management

35. Policy Findings included in NEA (DEFRA/UNEP) IUCN commissioned review on peatland policy options “Future of the Uplands” for Foresight Land Use Futures Commissioned input to CRC Inquiry into the Future of England’s Upland Communities Case study: Scottish Government Rural Land Use Study Invited to present to Scottish Government Pack Inquiry & Land Use Strategy teams Value for Money report for Public Accounts Committee “Making Space for Water” cross-Govt. programme Natural England Ecosystem Service Pilot

36. Questions What makes stakeholder participation deliver positive environmental outcomes in different contexts? How might the attitudes and behaviours that lead to positive environmental outcomes diffuse through society via social learning? British Academy and EU-funded ECOPAG

37. Questions What are the ingredients of successful knowledge exchange? How does knowledge from science and other sources get into policy and practice and vice versa, and how is it transformed or blocked along the way? RELU and EU-funded Ecocycles projects

38. Questions Does people’s engagement with the environment enhance their personal well-being? If so how, and does this lead them to engage in more sustainable behaviours? RCUK-funded Be-WEL project

39. Contact http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~lecmsr/ Follow me on: www.twitter.com/lecmsr Two films about the future of the uplands: http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~lecmsr/sustainableuplands/media.htm Email: m.reed@abdn.ac.uk Call or text on: 0753 8082343

40. Contact http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~lecmsr/ Follow me on: www.twitter.com/lecmsr Two films about the future of the uplands: http://homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk/~lecmsr/sustainableuplands/media.htm Email: m.reed@abdn.ac.uk Call or text on: 0753 8082343