Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Epic research daily special report 26 dec 2014.pdf
1. DAILY REPORT
26
th
DECEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
Global markets at a glance
The 7.7 % jump in Smith & Nephew allowed Britain's blue-
chip FTSE 100 index to end 0.2% higher at 6,609.93pts. CAC
ended down 0.4% as data showing another set of record
unemployment figures in France weighed on the Paris mar-
ket. Spain's IBEX equity index was flat, while the cash mar-
kets for both Milan and Frankfurt's DAX were closed. The
DAX was up 4 % in 2014, beating a 2 % dip on the FTSE 100
and a flat performance on France's CAC.
Wall Street Update
U.S. stocks were little changed as indexes erased gains in
the final minutes of trading, after a five-day rally in equities
that sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 18,000
for the first time. The S&P’s 500 Index fell less than 1 point
to 2,081.88 at 1 p.m. in New York, wiping out an earlier
gain of 0.3 %. The Dow rose 6.04 points, or less than 0.1 %,
to 18,030.21. The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap compa-
nies jumped 0.4 %, briefly climbing above its previous clos-
ing record. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index rebounded
after a two-day selloff.
Previous day Roundup
After a choppy trade, equity benchmarks saw huge profit
booking in last hour of trade on Wednesday, Indian stocks
tumbled the most in a week, led by industrials and energy
companies, after data showed foreigners sold local shares
for a 10th day and as monthly derivatives contracts ex-
pired. the expiry day of derivative contracts of December
month. Frontline indices lost one % each but the broader
markets outperformed benchmarks. The 50-share NSE
Nifty closed below the 8200 level, down 92.90 points at
8174.10 and the 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 297.85pts to
27208.61, continuing decline for the second consecutive
session. However, the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices
closed flat with a positive bias. For the series, the Sensex
shed 4.3 % and the Nifty lost 3.6 % weighed by oil & gas,
banks, technology, capital goods and metals stocks. The
equity and currency markets remained shut on Thursday
for Christmas holiday.
Index stats
The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial
indices performed as follow; Consumer Durables [down
76.52pts], Capital Goods [down 115.42pts], PSU [down
93.68pts], FMCG [down 79.83pts], Realty [up 17.12pts],
Power [down 18.06pts], Auto [down 123.14Pts], Healthcare
[down 146.60pts], IT [down 144.77pts], Metals [down
48.84Pts], TECK [up 62.04pts], Oil& Gas [down 136.50pts].
World Indices
Index Value % Change
D J l 18030.21 +0.03
S&P 500 2081.88 -0.01
NASDAQ 4773.47 +0.17
EURO STO 3184.66 -0.24
FTSE 100 6609.93 +0.18
Nikkei 225 17808.75 -0.25
Hong Kong 23349.34 +0.07
Top Gainers
Company CMP Change % Chg
ULTRACEMCO 2,615.85 71.35 2.80
SSLT 206.00 1.75 0.86
ACC 1,391.55 9.95 0.72
ZEEL 381.50 2.65 0.70
BANKBARODA 1,065.40 6. 0.58
Top Losers
Company CMP Change % Chg
GAIL 431.50 15.85 -3.54
DRREDDY 3,138.05 68.30 -2.13
HDFC 1,101.00 23.35 -2.08
NTPC 140.05 2.90 -2.03
INFY 1,932.00 39.65 -2.01
Stocks at 52 Week’s High
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
RCOM 79.85 0.75 0.95
MASTEK 331.90 6.70 2.06
PFS 58.20 -1.00 -1.69
SHREYAS 206.65 9.80 4.98
Indian Indices
Company CMP Change % Chg
NIFTY 8174.10 -92.90 -1.12
SENSEX 27208.61 -297.85 -1.08
Stocks at 52 Week’s Low
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
IGL 456.60 2.85 0.63
CENTRALBK 88.85 0.70 0.79
MASTEK 410.60 5.45 1.35
VENKEYS 412.00 -16.80 -3.92
2. DAILY REPORT
26
th
DECEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
1. ANDHRA BANK [FUTURE]
ANDHRA BANK is looking strong on charts, we may see
more upside, if it sustains above 87 levels. We advise buy-
ing around 87 levels with strict stop loss of 83.5 for the tar-
gets of 89.5-92 levels.
2. BPCL [FUTURE]
BPCL FUTURE is looking weak on charts, short build up has
been seen, we may see more downside, if it sustains below
636 levels. We advise selling around 636-635 levels with
strict stop loss of 684 for the targets of 600-560.
EQUITY CASH & FUTURE
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
1. HDIL
HDIL is looking strong on charts, we may see more upside,
if it sustains above 70 levels. We advise buying around 70-
70.5 levels with strict stop loss of 64 for the targets of 74 -
78 levels.
MACRO NEWS
The government on Wednesday approved 100 % foreign
direct investment in medical devices via the automatic
route. Currently FDI in pharma exists, albeit with certain
riders. This comes as a major positive for Indian compa-
nies as India currently imports over 70 % of medical de-
vices. The 100 % FDI, it added, will be permitted under
the automatic route, meaning a foreign investor will not
have to seek the permission of FIPB to acquire an exist-
ing company or set up a new manufacturing unit in the
medical devices sector.
India's poultry sector is likely to see double-digit growth
in 2015 because of stable feed prices and encouraging
rural demand, notwithstanding local and global chal-
lenges.
MCX To Launch Mini Crude Oil Futures Next Year
Reliance Industries Ltd signs shipping deal with Japan's
Mitsui
Healthcare budget may face 16-17% cut
8 apparel manufacturing centers to be set up in North-
east
3. DAILY REPORT
26
th
DECEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
FUTURE & OPTION
MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol Op-
tion
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
NIFTY PE 8,200 25.85 33,40,902 12,62,125
NIFTY PE 8,250 76 17,10,832 3,34,675
NIFTY PE 8,300 122.15 9,46,928 4,38,675
BANKNIFTY PE 18,500 0.1 2,43,924 5,26,775
AMTEKAUTO PE 150 0.05 5,070 71,48,000
TATASTEEL PE 390 0.05 3,105 5,37,000
SBIN PE 300 0.05 2,807 20,02,500
TCS PE 2,500 16 2,739 1,07,000
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol Op-
tion
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
NIFTY CE 8,300 0.05 32,67,395 1,05,28,025
NIFTY CE 8,250 0.05 21,07,033 42,72,425
NIFTY CE 8,200 0.05 14,16,926 42,11,150
BANKNIFTY CE 18,700 0.05 2,35,471 3,59,925
RELCAP CE 500 0.05 9,725 6,58,000
SBIN CE 310 0.05 5,524 16,60,000
TATASTEEL CE 400 0.05 5,521 7,13,500
RELAINCE CE 900 0.05 5,192 6,43,750
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAYSELL
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES 151786 3462.45 214156 4765.62 619000 13930.42 -1303.16
INDEX OPTIONS 896741 22867.77 850731 21831.40 1454107 37709.50 1036.36
STOCK FUTURES 488934 13967.45 545889 15613.63 1677142 47767.64 -1646.18
STOCK OPTIONS 14414 437.72 12570 382.89 3244 78.86 54.83
TOTAL -1858.14
STOCKS IN NEWS
UltraTech Cement Gains After Agreeing to Buy Jaip-
rakash Units.
Govt may give ONGC, RIL disputed gas sites to de-
velop
Oil India commissions 5 MW solar power plant in Ra-
jasthan
Reliance Capital ropes in Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui to
open a new bank in India
Reliance Industries Ltd signs shipping deal with Ja-
pan's Mitsui
Tata Chemicals plans expansion of nutrition, wellness
business
NIFTY FUTURE
Nifty Future closed downside in the last trading session.
We advise selling around 8160-8150 with strict stop loss
8210 for the targets of 8100-8050
INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2
NIFTY 8,336.40 8,255.25 8,205.25 8,124.10 8,074.10
BANK NIFTY 18,795.12 18,665.23 18,579.27 18,449.38 18,363.42
4. DAILY REPORT
26
th
DECEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
NCDEX
RECOMMENDATIONS
SILVER
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY SILVER MAR ABOVE 36750 TGTS 36950,37250 SL BE-
LOW 36450
SELL SILVER MAR BELOW 36200 TGTS 36000,35700 SL
ABOVE 36500
GOLD
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GOLD FEB ABOVE 26750 TGTS 26830,26930 SL BE-
LOW 26660
SELL GOLD FEB BELOW 26500 TGTS 26420,26320 SL
ABOVE 26590
COMMODITY ROUNDUP
Iron ore producers have cancelled or suspended
22 mining projects since July as prices plunged to a five-
year low, which will help to curb or even eliminate a sup-
ply surplus, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The cu-
mulative cuts mean 140 million tonnes of extra capacity
will not now hit the global market over the next few
years. About 95 per cent of new supply over the next five
years is slated to come from Brazil and Australia, where
the infrastructure is already in place, production costs
are low and the ore quality is among the best.
U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly last month,
official data showed on Wednesday. Energy Information
Administration said that U.S. Crude Oil Inventories rose
to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.267M, from -
0.847M in the preceding month. Analysts had expected
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories to fall -2.280M last month.
MCX Crude oil futures stayed under stress on Wednesday
following yet another slide in world prices in electronic
moves. The commodity had failed last night after an im-
pressive U.S. crude oil inventories but succumbed to
heavy selloff yet again amid dollar strength and mixed
cues from world equities. The WTI Crude oil futures are
trading at $55.48 per barrel, down 0.35% on the day.
MCX Crude oil futures are trading at Rs 3568 per lot,
down Rs 59 on the day. Weakness in Indian Rupee kept
the losses against the US dollar.
Wednesday’s price action in the precious metals market
might seem perplexing for today's trading scenario, as
Gold saw downside, it moved total 115 points and made
low of 26555 It seems bearish further on technically
charts. In our opinion it may trade in 26500-26750 range.
So selling is advised from our side.
Silver saw downside, it moved total 280 points and made
low of 36319 It seems bearish further on technically
charts. In our opinion it may trade in 35900-36800
(range). So selling is advised from our side.
5. DAILY REPORT
26
th
DECEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
RECOMMENDATIONS
DHANIYA
BUY DHANIYA JAN ABOVE 12800 TGTS 12830,12880 SL
12750
SELL DHANIYA JAN BELOW 12650 TGTS 12620,12570 SL
12700
GUARSGUM
BUY GUARGUM JAN ABOVE 12450 TGTS 12500,12600 SL
12360
SELL GUARGUM JAN BELOW 12150 TGTS 12100,12000 SL
12240
NCDEX
NCDEX ROUNDUP
Coffee exporters have sought the commodity be routed to-
Russia under a rupee- rouble trade mechanism. Due to the
fall in demand from Russia, coffee prices in the international
market have softened. Prices of the arabica variety have
fallen about 20 per cent in two months. Exporters feel in an
environment when the currency is highly volatile, allowing
coffee shipment under the rupee-rouble route will be help-
ful, though the rate of the rouble has to be decided. Against
40/dollar six months ago, the rouble now stands at 60/
dollar. For Indian exporters, the Russian market is the third-
largest destination, after Italy and Germany. Annual exports
to Russia stand at 28,000-30,000 tonnes.
Mixed sentiment witnessed in Coriander market Higher
sowing area anticipated increasing production in current
year likely to put cap prices at higher levels At NCDEX
Dhaniya prices for delivery in January traded lower by Rs -
85, or -0.67%, to Rs 12668, as per the view of previous trad-
ing session price bounce with high volume signs price may
go upside.
At NCDEX Castor seed for delivery in January 2015 con-
tracts traded by +199, or 3.99%, to Rs 5198. As per the view
of past days price of Castor seed is continuing goes high
with heavy volume and yesterday also it hit the 3.99% up-
per circuit, it moved total +199 points and made high of
5198 and closed at high, expecting price may go upside.
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value % Change
CASTOR SEED 5198 +3.98
CHANA 3376 +1.35
CORIANDER 12732 -0.16
COTTON SEED 1417 -0.70
GAUR SEED 4610 +1.12
JEERA 14535 +3.97
MUSTARDSEED 4254 +0.16
SOYBEAN 3357 +0.39
SUGAR M GRADE 2674 -0.34
TURMERIC 8582 +2.63
6. DAILY REPORT
26
th
DECEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
EUR/INR
BUY EURINR DEC ABOVE 77.65 TGT 77.85,78.05 SL 77.45
SELL EURINR DEC BELOW 77.35 TGT 77.15,76.95 SL 77.55
GBP/INR
BUY GBPINR DEC ABOVE 98.90 TGT 99.10 ,99.30 SL 98.70
SELL GBPINR DEC BELOWE 98.60 TGT 98.40 ,98.20 SL 98.80
CURRENCY MARKET UPDATES:
The Indian rupee slipped in the early trade on Wednes-
day. It has opened lower by 15 paise at 63.43 per dollar
against 63.28 a dollar Tuesday. The dollar hovered at its
highest in nearly nine years against a basket of major cur-
rencies after stunningly strong US economic growth
spurred markets to bring forward the timing of a likely
hike in interest rates.
Then the rupee fell the most in a week and bonds
dropped after data showing the fastest U.S. economic
growth in more than a decade bolstered the case for
the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The world’s
largest economy expanded at a 5 % annual rate in the
third quarter, compared with the 4.3 % median forecast.
The rupee fell 0.4 % to close at 63.5275 a dollar in Mum-
bai. That’s the biggest drop since Dec. 16. The yield on
the 8.4 % notes due July 2024 rose four basis point to
7.96 %, according to the central bank’s trading system.
Three-month offshore non-deliverable forwards fell 0.3 %
to 64.56 a dollar.
Asian currencies could be in for a wild ride in 2015, with
central bank policy on track for further divergence as the
Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates The Fed-
eral Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates in
July after unwinding its quantitative easing program this
year
The world`s major central banks and economies are en-
tirely out of sync and the oil price collapse has added a
dramatic new geopolitical and economic twist to global
markets," Saxo`s head of foreign-exchange strategy John
Hardy said in a note last week.
RBI Reference Rate
Currency Rate Currency Rate
Rupee- $ 63.4614 Yen-100 52.7300
Euro 77.3087 GBP 98.5111
MCX COMMODITIES & CURRENCY
7. DAILY REPORT
26
th
DECEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
CALL REPORT
PERFORMANCE UPDATES
Date
Commodity/ Currency
Pairs
Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
24/12/14 MCX GOLD FEB. BUY 26750 26830-26930 26660 NOT EXECUTED
24/12/14 MCX GOLD FEB. SELL 26500 26420-26320 26590 NOT EXECUTED
24/12/14 MCX SILVER MAR. BUY 36750 36750-37250 36450 NOT EXECUTED
24/12/14 MCX SILVER MAR. SELL 36200 36000-35700 36500 NOT EXECUTED
24/12/14 NCDEX GUARGUM JAN BUY 12300 12350-12450 12210
BOOKED FULL
PROFIT
24/12/14 NCDEX GUARGUM JAN SELL 12000 11950-11850 12090 NOT EXECUTED
24/12/14 NCDEX DHANIYA JAN BUY 12800 12830-12880 12750
BOOKED FULL
PROFIT
24/12/14 NCDEX DHANIYA JAN SELL 12650 12620-12570 12700 SL TRIGGERED
24/12/14 USD/INR DEC. BUY 63.40 63.55-63.70 63.20 NOT EXECUTED
24/12/14 USD/INR DEC. SELL 63.30 63.15-63.00 63.50 NOT EXECUTED
24/12/14 JPY/INR DEC. BUY 52.85 53.05-53.20 52.65 NO PROFIT NO LOSS
24/12/14 JPY/INR DEC. SELL 52.70 52.50-52.30 52.90 NOT EXECUTED
Date Scrip
CASH/
FUTURE/
OPTION
Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
24/12/14 NIFTY FUTURE SELL 8240-8230 8190-8140 8290 NOT EXECUTED
24/12/14 REL CAPITAL FUTURE SELL 480-485 470-460 500 SL TRIGGERED
24/12/14 IGL FUTURE BUY 445-450 460-470 435 NOT EXECUTED
24/12/14 REPRO INDIA CASH BUY 310-315 325-340 300 CALL OPEN
23/12/14 NIFTY FUTURE BUY 8340-8350 8390-8440 8290 SL TRIGGERED
23/12/14 YESBANK FUTURE BUY 740-745 750-760 730 BOOKED PROFIT
22/12/14 NIFTY FUTURE BUY 8280-8290 8330-8380 8230 BOOKED PROFIT
22/12/14 KPIT TECH LTD. CASH BUY 202-205 214-224 192 CALL OPEN
16/12/14 EVERRON CASH BUY 38-40 42-45 35 SL TRIGGERED
8. DAILY REPORT
26
th
DECEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL
CONSENSUS
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
MONDAY, DEC. 22
10 AM EXISTING HOME SALES NOV. 5.18 MLN 5.26 MLN
TUESDAY, DEC. 23
8:30 AM GDP Q3 4.5% 3.9%
8:30 AM DURABLE GOODS ORDERS NOV. 43.4% 0.3%
9:55 AM CONSUMER SENTIMENT DEC. -- 93.8
10 AM PERSONAL INCOME NOV. 0.5% 0.2%
10 AM CONSUMER SPENDING NOV. 0.5% 0.2%
10 AM CORE INFLATION NOV. -- 0.2%
10 AM NEW HOME SALES NOV. 458,000 458,000
WEDNESDAY, DEC. 24
8:30 AM WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DEC. 20 N/A N/A
THURSDAY, DEC. 25
CHRISTMAS DAY
NONE SCHEDULED
FRIDAY, DEC. 26
NONE SCHEDULED