Airport Forecasting - Traffic, It including , Sana Airport, Arab Airports and International Airports

1. AIRPORTS Forecasting
"The easiest way to predict the future is to invent it."
Immanuel Kant - German Philosopher
Airport Forecasting1
Forecasts of airport aviation activity have become an integral part of
Immanuel Kant
transportation planning. Most airport-specific forecasts are prepared on behalf
of airport sponsors and state or regional agencies. The type and method of forecasting
can depend importantly on the purpose for which the forecast is being made.
The primary statistical methods used in airport aviation activity forecasting include
market share analysis, econometric modeling, and time series modeling. These
methods can be used to create forecasts of future airport activity over time. Simulation
models are a separate method of analysis used to provide snapshot estimates of traffic
flows across a network or through an airport.
The main measuring performance factors for airports are traffic passengers, aircraft
movements and freight. And consequently these factors are breakdown to sublevels in
term of departures, arrivals and transit activities.
Forecasting Methods
The majority of airport and regional and state aviation activity studies use fairly
simple methods to produce forecasts, and address forecast uncertainty only in
informal and nonsystematic ways. Figure ( 1 ). Summary of Recommended
Forecasting Methods
Historical Data Availability
Purpose of Increasing Data Requirements
Activity
Forecast Stable Relationship with:
Stable Trend
External Forecasts Causal Variables
Time series trend
Short-Term Operational extrapolation, or
Planning: Annual smoothing/Box-Jenkins Market Share Forecasting Econometric Modeling
Budgeting if complex time
dependencies
Identify Long-Term
Capacity Needs: Market share
Financial Planning to forecasting or Market Share Forecasting Econometric Modeling
Support Facility econometric modeling
Expansion
Examine Alternative
Environment:
Compare Alternative Econometric Modeling
Policies
Obtain High-Fidelity
Estimates of of Activity
Purpose Travel Time
and DelaysForecast Simulation Modeling
(Aircraft or Passengers)
Figure ( 1 ). Recommended Forecasting Methods
1
Reference: Aviation Forecasting – FAA / Mohammed Salem Awad – Research Scholar

2. AIRPORTS Forecasting YEMEN Airports: SANA'A
Airport
Airports Forecasting:
Airport forecasting is an important issue in
Aviation industry. It becomes an integral parts of
transportation planning. It sets targets and goals
for the airports, either for long term or medium
term planning. The primary statistical methods
used in airport aviation activity forecasting are
market share approach, econometric modeling,
and time series modeling.
Model Used:
Based on a historical data of the airports, (3 years
on monthly bases) the mathematical model is
developed where its fairness and goodness of fit
can be defined by two important factors:
R2 (Coeff. Of Determination) > 80%
S. T (Signal Tracking) ..(- 4  S.T.  4)
Airport Performances:
There are many factors that may measure the
airport performance, mainly:
1) Number of Passengers.
2) Aircraft Movement and
3) Freight
SANA'A Airport:
Sana'a International Airport or El Rahaba
Airport (Sana'a International) (IATA:
SAH, ICAO: OYSN) is an international airport
located in Sana'a, the capital of Yemen. Recently
Yemen passes in a transition phase, as results a
democracy. This situation effects on 2011 data
base.
So the basic analysis addressing 2008, 2009, and
2010. And the forecasted period are 2011 and
2012.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 2,048,088 Pax
Peak Periods: Jul =210,230 Aug =206,205
Annual Growth : 3 %
The Model is good as R = 78%
Aircraft Movement Forecasting 2012 = 39,606
Peak Periods: Jul =3540 Aug =3361
Annual Growth : 16%.
The Model is fairly fitted as R = 94%
And reflects the recent data
Freights &Mails Forecasting 2012 = 23493 Tone.
Peak Periods: May =2205 Tone.
Annual Growth: 2.4%.
The Model reflects a lot of discrepancies as
R = 38% while its signal tracking = -3.02, so
results should take in caution.

3. AIRPORTS Forecasting ARABIC Airports
Dubai International Airport:
(IATA: DXB, ICAO: OMDB) is an international
airport serving Dubai. It is a major aviation hub
in the Middle East, and is the main airport of
Emirates States.
In 2011 DXB handled a record 50.98 million in
passenger traffic, a 8% increase over the 2010
fiscal year. This made it the 13th busiest airport
in the world by passenger traffic and the 4th
busiest airport in the world by international
passenger traffic.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 56,277,296 Pax
Peak Periods: Jul =5116686 Aug = 5109256
Annual Growth : 10.5 %
The Model is fairly good as R2 = 89 %.
Bahrain International Airport:
(IATA: BAH, ICAO: OBBI) is an international
airport located in Muharraq, an island on the
northern tip of Bahrain, about 7 km (4.3 mi)
northeast of the capital Manama. It is the primary
hub for Gulf Air and Bahrain Air.
The airport has a three star rating from Skytrax's
airport grading exercise. In 2010, Bahrain
Airport was named as the winner of the Best
Airport in the Middle East Award at the Skytrax
2010 World Airport Awards.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 9,287,978 Pax
Peak Periods: Jul = 903722 Aug = 912338
Annual Growth : 1.3 %
The Model is fair as R2 = 71 %.
Sharjah International Airport
(IATA: SHJ, ICAO: OMSJ) is located in
Sharjah, United Arab Emirates. Sharjah Airport is
the second largest Middle East Airfreight Hub in
terms of cargo tonnage, according to official 2009
statistics from Airports Council International.
Ground services company, Sharjah Aviation
Services, handled 421,398 tonnes in 2009 - a
16.1% increase year on year.
Sharjah International Airport is home base of the
low-cost carrier Air Arabia.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 6,863,141 Pax
Peak Periods: Jul = 903722 Aug = 912338
Annual Growth: 4.9 %
The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 89 %.

4. AIRPORTS Forecasting INTERNATIONALS Airports
Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International
Airport:
(IATA: ATL, ICAO: KATL, FAA LID: ATL),
known locally as Atlanta Airport, Hartsfield
Airport, and Hartsfield–Jackson. It has been the
world's busiest airport by passenger traffic and
number of landings and take-offs since 2005.
Hartsfield–Jackson held its ranking as the world's
busiest airport in 2010, both in terms of
passengers and number of flights, by
accommodating 89 million passengers (243,000
passengers daily) and 950,119 flights.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 94,030,596 Pax
Peak Periods: Jul = 9,028,647
Annual Growth: 2.2 %
The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 96 %.
Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA):
(IATA: HKG, ICAO: VHHH) is the main airport
in Hong Kong. It is colloquially known as Chek
Lap Kok Airport. The airport opened for
commercial operations in 1998, replacing Kai
Tak, and is an important regional trans-shipment
centre, passenger hub and gateway for
destinations in Mainland China and the rest of
Asia. Hong Kong International Airport has won
eight Skytrax World Airport Awards for customer
satisfaction in eleven years. HKIA ranked second
and third in 2009 and 2010 respectively for the
Skytrax World Airport Awards, and has also won
the Skytrax World Airport of the Year 2011.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 60,503,000 Pax
Peak Periods: Jul = 5165000 Aug = 5314000
Annual Growth : 6.4 %
The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 85%
Amsterdam Airport Schiphol
(IATA: AMS, ICAO: EHAM) is the Netherlands'
main international airport, The airport is the
primary hub for KLM, Martinair, Transavia and
Arkefly. Schiphol is an important European
airport, ranking as Europe’s 4th busiest and the
world's 12th busiest by total passenger traffic. It
also ranks as the world’s 6th busiest by
international passenger traffic and the world’s
17th largest for cargo tonnage. 45.3 million
passengers passed through the airport in 2010, a
4% increase compared with 2009.
Passenger Forecasting 2012 = 51,989,842 Pax
Peak Periods: Jul = 5440000 Aug = 5360000
Annual Growth : 6.1 %
The Model is fair fitted as R2 = 96%
© Mohammed Salem Awad - Consultant