Project Management and Peacekeeping by Chris Hache'

1. 1
Managing Catastrophe
Observations Of
A Canadian Peacekeeper In Haiti On 12 January 2010
And Potential Application Towards Project Management
Chris Haché, MSM, CD, PMP
Lieutenant Commander
Canadian Forces Maritime Warfare Centre

2. 2
Learning Objectives
• Creating a risk matrix that is
truly reflective of your risk
environment
• Adapting to immediate
changes in the triple
constraints
• Managing increases to
project complexity

3. 3
Disclaimer
• The views and opinions
expressed herein are my own
based on my personal
observations and perspectives
• My views are not necessarily
reflective of or are endorsed by
the Royal Canadian Navy, the
Canadian Forces, the
Government of Canada, the
United Nations or my spouse

4. 4
Online Resources
• Public Safety Canada
• A guide to business
continuity planning
• Nova Scotia Emergency
Management Office
• Business Continuity
Management

5. 55
Creating A Risk Matrix That
Is Truly Reflective Of Your
Risk Environment

6. 6
Risk Environment
• Understanding your
physical environment
• Team impacts
• Security / emergency
services
• Infrastructure

7. 7
Understand Your Environment
• Emergency services
• Much applicable across
industry
• How it can affect you
• Personally
• Entering an affected
area

8. 8
Team Impact
• Loss of critical members
• Loss of critical mass
• Effect on team efficiency
• Family loss, disabilities, injuries,
trauma, etc.
• Environmental effects
• Breathing, drinking, eating,
sanitation
• Acclimatization for new
members

9. 9
Security / Emergency Services
• Requirements
• Police, fire, medical,
military
• Damage to prisons & jails
• Impact on security levels
• Civil disobedience
• Civil unrest
• Internal conflict
• External conflict

10. 10
Infrastructure
• Requirements
• Power, water, fuel, heat,
etc.
• New products, repairs,
spares, etc.
• Effects to transportation
• Vehicles, roads, rail, air,
seaports, etc.
• Debris

11. 11
Risk Matrix
• UN knew of risk
• Hotel (HQ) was a known risk
entity
• Executives concentrated in
one location
• Earthquake caused by
undiscovered fault
• How detailed is your matrix?
• Interrelationships of risk
matrices

12. 1212
Adapting To Immediate
Changes In The Triple
Constraints

13. 13
Adapting The Triple Constraints
• (Integration / Communications)
• Scope
• Time
• Cost

14. 14
Project Charter
• Originally UNSC Resolution 1529 (2004)
• Originally 8,322 military and police
• UNSC Resolution 1908 (2010)
• Military – from 6,940 to 8,940 (+2,000)
• UNPOL – from 2,211 to 3,711 (+1,500)
• Ensure safe and secure environment
• Implied task – provide relief

15. 15
Stakeholder Analysis
• Citizens!
• UN Organizations
• OCHA, UNICEF, WFP,
UNHCR, etc.
• International Military
• Over 20
• Integrated / arms length
• International NGOs / Charities
• Dozens / Hundreds

16. 16
Requirements
• Maintain secure environment
• Integration with foreign security
partners
• Integration with NGOs - security
and distribution
• Responding to debris concerns
• Responding to sanitation
concerns - IDP camps, mass
burials
• Responding to stakeholder
concerns (e.g., UNESCO)

17. 17
Time
• ASAP!
• Three main period identified
• Emergency/Rescue
• Recovery
• Improvement
• Determining activity
resources/durations

18. 18
Cost
• Initially not a significant
concern
• Opportunity
• Land owners
• Trades industries
• Employment Programs
• Cash For Work
• Cash For Food And
Work

19. 1919
Managing Increases To
Project Complexity

20. 20
Managing Increased Complexity
• Quality
• HR
• Communications
• Risk
• Procurement
• DATA!!!

21. 21
Quality
• Measuring effects
• Rioting levels
• Security incidents
• Personnel
migration

22. 22
Human Resources
• 2000 troops / 1500 police
• Composition / requirements
matrix
• Security? Engineering?
Specialists? Optimal ratio?
• Rapid indoctrination
• Modifications to other
documents

23. 23
Communications
• Communications matrix
is key
• Appropriate method for
each stakeholder
• Radio
• Cell phone (SMS)
• Television
• Web
• Manage expectations

24. 24
Risk
• Re-evaluate risk matrix
• New items may be present
• Severity / impact may have
changed
• Not all risk events are bad
• Extra attention / assistance
• More health projects
(water, medical)
• Economic development
• Innovative business
opportunities

25. 25
Procurement
• Land
• Extra footprint of
incoming troops
• IDP
• Debris
• Logistical Issues
• Ready-use stores
• Ramp-up of
suppliers
• Landing areas

26. 26
Data!!!
• Significant Impact
• Loss of computer
servers on same site
• Infrequent backups
• Even offsite
susceptible
• Could be equally
affected)

27. 2727
Criteria For Success

28. 28
Criteria for Success (1)
• Robust risk analysis /
detailed planning
• Identification of reliance
& interdependency
• Potential partnerships
• Haiti had the world
• Measures to assess
catastrophe impact
• Adequate response
• Exercise the plan

29. 29
Criteria for Success (2)
• Empowerment
• Provide strategic
direction & let teams
work
• Lessens personal
impact (keeping people
busy)
• Capture identified lessons
• Generate lessons learned

30. 3030
Summary

31. 31
Learning Objectives
• Creating a risk
matrix that is truly
reflective of your risk
environment
• Adapting to
immediate changes
in the triple
constraints
• Managing increases
to project complexity

32. 32
Take-Away Tool

33. 33
Contact Information
Chris Haché, MSM, CD, PMP
Lieutenant Commander
Canadian Forces Maritime
Warfare Centre
(902) 721-8482 (w)
chris.hache@forces.gc.ca
chrishache@hotmail.com

34. 3434
Take-Away Tool
Bonus Material

35. 35
Calculating Risk
• Risk is the estimate of injury or gain/loss, defined
as a measure of the probability and severity of an
event
• Risk has two components
• Probability – the probability or frequency of the
event occurring
• Severity – the impact if the event occurs

36. 36
Risk Can Be Good!
Probability
Severity
Highest Risk
Lowest
Risk
Exploitation
Remainder
of
presentation
will focus
on negative
risk…

37. 37
“Traditional” Risk Matrix
Probability
Severity
Highest Risk
Lowest
Risk
Mitigation

38. 38
Risk Indices
• Probability
1. Improbable
2. Remote
3. Occasional
4. Probable
5. Frequent
• Consequences
1. Negligible
2. Marginal
3. Significant
4. Critical
5. Catastrophic

39. 39
Probability
Improbable So unlikely it may not be
experienced
Remote Unlikely, but could possibly
occur in the life of the project
Occasional Unlikely, but can be
reasonably expected to occur
in the life of the project
Probable Will occur several times in the
life of the project
Frequent Likely to occur regularly

40. 40
Consequences - Negligible
• Personnel
• Minor impact / minor first aid, no appreciable
change in productivity
• Infrastructure
• Minor damage, limited & temporary loss of
some non-critical resources
• Project
• Minor degradation / project continues as
scheduled

41. 41
Consequences - Marginal
• Personnel
• Single minor injury or temporary disability, emergency
medical treatment
• Infrastructure
• Moderate damage, moderate &/or longer loss of some
non-critical resources, possible minor/temporary
impact on critical resources
• Project
• Certain aspects of the project will be notably over on
time/scope/cost, project continues

42. 42
Consequences - Significant
• Personnel
• Single severe or permanent injury, multiple
minor injuries or disabilities
• Infrastructure
• Major damage, temporary loss of critical
resources, requires specialized repair teams
• Project
• Single significant project element failure but
with workarounds - may be unsuitable to
continue

43. 43
Consequences - Critical
• Personnel
• Single death / multiple severe injuries /
multiple permanent disabilities
• Infrastructure
• Severe damage, extended loss of critical
resources, requires specialized repair teams
• Project
• Multiple significant project element failures but
with workarounds, likely unsuitable to continue

44. 44
Consequences - Catastrophic
• Personnel
• Multiple deaths
• Infrastructure
• Damaged beyond repair
• Project
• Irrecoverable project failure and inability to
continue

45. 45
Risk Levels
•Acceptable (without review)
•No further action required
A
•Acceptable With Review
•Tolerable but must be reviewed by the
project team on a periodic basis
R
•Undesirable
•Should only be tolerated if risk
reduction is impractical
U
•Intolerable
•Intolerable – risk is to be reduced /
I

46. 46
Risk Matrix
5
4
3
2
1
Negligible Marginal Significant Critical Catastrophic
R U I I I
R R U I I
A R U U I
A A R U U
A A A R R
Probability
Consequences
1 2 4 5
Frequent
Probable
Occasional
Remote
Improbable
3

47. 47
Risk Mitigation / Controls
• To reduce risk levels, you must:
• Reduce the frequency and/or
• Reduce the severity
• Eliminate, reduce, transfer, share, etc.
• If risk level has not dropped, then inappropriate /
inadequate controls being used

48. 48
Example
• Risk – Documentation on the plan no longer
exists (server room collapsed)
• Probability: Remote
• Severity: Critical (Project)
• Risk Assessment ⇒ Undesirable

49. 49
Example (continued)
• Risk Mitigation/Controls:
• Off-site server backup, cloud
computing, DVD backups
• Probability: Remote
• Severity: Negligible (Project)
• Residual Risk Assessment
• ⇒ Acceptable

50. 50
Risk Posture After Controls
Frequent
Probable
Occasional
Remote
Improbable
Catastrophic
Critical
Marginal
Negligible
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Before Controls
Frequent
Probable
Occasional
Remote
Improbable
Catastrophic
Critical
Marginal
Negligible
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
After Controls
The number of risks have not changed,
but the risk levels have!