Business & Tech Trends 2014 - Dan Arnold, Epistemy

1. Dan Arnold
Founder and CEO

2. Our Mission
Create outstanding software to help the oil industry
maximise oil recovery from existing fields

3. Best case
from an
experienced
BP engineer
Best case
from Raven
How do we create value?
Raven found an additional
3 million barrels of oil = $30 million
(From one application of Raven compared with an experienced engineer)

4. Average recoveries
from North sea fields
30%

5. Barrels oil. Proven UK
reserves under
development
7.4
billion

6. Value of additional 5%
recovery in oil
$16.75
billion

7. 0.3%UK’s proportion of
global oil reserves

8. Time
FieldOilProductionRate
Wells to
Maintain
Plateau
40 Wells to
Target Unswept Oil
and
Extend Field Life
+50
More from Mature Oil Fields
Optimisation History matching, uncertainty
and optimisation

9. New fields: smaller, more complex
Spends & Trends 2008-2017: Key Global Oil & Gas Markets – Summary, Scottish Enterprise and Scottish Development International
= bigger opportunity for Epistemy

10. Raven software
• What it does
– Computer software to accurately quantify uncertainty and risk in
oil field development then identify the optimal way to increase
value
• To Whom
– Oil companies (users = reservoir engineers)
• The value
– Improved handling of risk means better decision making,
increased production and more profit.

11. History Matching Forecasting under
uncertainty
Optimisation
One software – three functions
Production
Time
Shut in date
Likelihood
Production
$ Production
Time

12. Current status
• Incorporated in 2009
• Raven 1.0 was released in January 2012
• First sales April 2012 (JOGMEC)
• Repeat sales April 2013 and 2014 (total revenue £310K)
• Version 2.0 for release in Q3 2014
• Current version 1.5

13. “Raven 2 will introduce new stuff in the
oil industry, that will not be followed by
other companies, big ones, old ones”
Raven client

14. The Team: Founders
Mike
Christie
Dan
Arnold
Jack
Talbot
Global expert in reservoir
simulation and uncertainty
• 18 years at BP
• Heriot-Watt since 1999
• Founded and runs Uncertainty
Project
Co-founder and CEO
• PhD in uncertainty quantification
• RSE enterprise fellow 2009-10
• Expertise in geological uncertainty
Lead software developer
• MEng in computer software
engineering
• Expertise in human computer
interface design

15. The Team: Executive team
Alan
Faichney
Derek
Shepherd
Business leader and Non-Exec designate
• 33 years in oil and gas
• Co-founder of concept systems
• Former COO DEM solutions
• CEO Edinburgh instruments
Business leader and Chairman designate
• MD Taylor Woodrow (Nigeria)
• MD (UK) Aggreko
• International director (board) Aggreko
• Helped grow sales to $1billion over 11
years

16. Our Goal from investment
– Provide outstanding software to help the oil industry maximise
oil recovery from existing fields by rapidly building a
professional sales team
– build a company valued at £25-50 million in 5-10 years.

17. $30 million, one application
“The collaboration between Heriot-Watt and BP has resulted in a step-
forward in practical, multi-objective optimisation capability for the
industry”
Manager, Advanced Reservoir Performance Prediction, BP

18. Dan Arnold
dan.arnold@epistemy.com
0131 564 0230