This document provides a summary of global economic data and commodity prices from January 31, 2014. It includes key economic indicators such as the Core PCE Price Index, Employment Cost Index, Personal Spending, and Chicago PMI. Technical support and resistance levels are given for gold, silver, copper, and crude oil. Disclaimers about the information are also provided.

1. Global Research Limited
COMEX
Report
31st,January

2. 31st January ,2014
Global Research Limited
Global Economic Data
DATE
TIME: IST
DATA
PRV
EXP
IMPACT
31.01.14
7:00 P.M
Core PCE Price Index m/m
0.1%
0.1%
MEDIUM
31.01.14
7:00 P.M
Employment Cost Index q/q
0.4%
0.4%
MEDIUM
31.01.14
7:00 P.M
Personal Spending m/m
0.5%
0.2%
MEDIUM
31.01.14
8:14 P.M
Chicago PMI
59.1
59.8
MEDIUM
Core PCE Price Index m/m
Source
Measures
Usual Effect
Frequency
Next Release
FF Notes
Acro Expand
2
Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Mar 3, 2014
Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and
consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which
gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. This is rumored to be the Federal
Reserve's favorite inflation measure, but CPI is released about 15 days earlier and tends to
garner most of the attention;
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI);
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3. 31st January ,2014
Global Research Limited
Personal Spending m/m
Source
Measures
Usual Effect
Frequency
Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers;
Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release
Mar 3, 2014
FF Notes
This is significant data, though it tends to have a relatively mild impact because Retail Sales,
which also covers consumer spending, is released about 2 weeks earlier;
Why Traders
Care
Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. It's one of the most
important gauges of economic health due to the vast ripple effect consumer buying creates
in the economy;
Also Called
Consumer Spending, Personal Consumption Expenditures;
Chicago PMI
Source
Measures
Usual Effect
Frequency
Next Release
FF Notes
Why Traders
Care
Derived Via
3
MNI (latest release)
Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the Chicago area;
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month;
Feb 28, 2014
Data is given to MNI subscribers 3 minutes before the public release time listed on the
calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers.
Above 50.0 indicates expansion, below indicates contraction;
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions,
and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the
company's view of the economy;
Survey of around 200 purchasing managers in Chicago which asks respondents to rate the
relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices,
supplier deliveries, and inventories;
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4. 31st January ,2014
Gold

Global Research Limited
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery traded at USD1,244.00 a troy
ounce during Asian trading, up 0.03%.

On Thursday, gold saw a session low of USD1,243.20 and off a high of 1,244.80. The April contract settled at USD1,243.60
on Wednesday.

Futures were likely to find support at USD1,231.30 a troy ounce, the low from Jan. 23, and resistance at USD1,270.10,
Wednesday's high.

The dollar rallied after the Commerce Department said gross domestic product expanded 3.2% in the three months to
December, in line with most forecasts, even outpacing some, following a 4.1% rise in the third quarter.

Consumer spending rose by 3.3%, the strongest since the fourth quarter of 2010, exports grew by 11.4%, while government
consumption shrank, which drew praise from markets.

The data strengthened the dollar by keeping expectations firm for the Federal Reserve to continue trimming its monthly
bond-buying program, which weakens the greenback pushing down long-term interest rates, thus making gold an attractive
hedge.

Gold prices fluctuated between small gains and losses on Friday after robust U.S. gross domestic product data cemented
market expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue dismantling stimulus programs, which fueled demand for the
dollar.
Silver

Silver settled down -2.67% at 43220 poised to post its first weekly drop in six weeks on Friday as strong U.S. economic growth
boosted global equities and the dollar, hurting the metal's safe-haven appeal. Bullion was also under pressure due to the absence
of top buyer China, shut for the Lunar New Year holiday. The Fed said Wednesday that it would reduce its monthly bond buying
program by USD10 billion to a total of USD65 billion a month, in a widely anticipated decision. The U.S. central bank said growth
signals are encouraging, and the unemployment market shows improvement “on balance”.

The Fed left unchanged its statement that interest rates are likely to remain low even after the unemployment rate drops below
6.5%, the threshold at which the central bank has previously said it would start to consider rate increases. The Fed added it will
keep a close eye on economic indicators before deciding to wind down its stimulus program even further. The U.S. is to publish
preliminary data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data
on pending home sales. Also subdued demand from China, usually the biggest support for prices took the sheen off the metal's
safe-haven appeal, even as investors shied away from emerging markets and equities.

The data showed personal consumption grew 3.3% in the three months ended December 31, the biggest increase in three years.

4
Silver dropped after data showed that the U.S. economy expanded in line with expectations in the final three months of 2013

Fed said that it will keep a close eye on economic indicators before deciding to wind down its stimulus program even further.
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5. 31st January ,2014


Copper






Crude

Global Research Limited
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery fell to a session low of USD3.231 a
pound, the weakest since December 9, before trimming losses to trade at USD3.235 during European morning hours, down 0.15
The March copper contract settled down 0.38% on Wednesday to end at USD3.240 a pound. Copper futures were likely to find support
at USD3.217 a pound, the low from December 6 and resistance at USD3.269 a pound, the high from January 29.
China's final HSBC Purchasing Managers Index released earlier fell to a six-month low of 49.5 in January, down from a preliminary
reading of 49.6 and compared to 50.5 in December.
China is the world's largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Meanwhile, the Fed said Wednesday that it would reduce its monthly bond buying program by USD10 billion to a total of USD65 billion
a month, in a widely anticipated decision.
The U.S. central bank said growth signals are encouraging, and the unemployment market shows improvement "on balance".
The Fed left unchanged its statement that interest rates are likely to remain low even after the unemployment rate drops below 6.5%,
the threshold at which the central bank has previously said it would start to consider rate increases.
Copper futures fell to a seven-week low on Thursday, after data confirmed a contraction in China's manufacturing sector and following
the Federal Reserve's decision to taper its monthly bond-buying program by USD10 billion for the second consecutive meeting..
On Thursday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD97.91 a barrel and a high of USD98.15 a barrel. The March contract
settled at USD97.95 a barrel.
 Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD95.22 a barrel, Monday's low, and resistance at USD98.96 a barrel, the high from Jan. 2.

Oil prices gained after the Commerce Department said gross domestic product expanded 3.2% in the three months to December, in line
with most forecasts, even outpacing some, following a 4.1% rise in the third quarter.

Exports grew by 11.4%, while federal consumption decreased, which drew particular applause by fanning hopes the private sector will fuel
more growth going forward.
 The data showed personal consumption grew 3.3% in the three months ended Dec. 31, the biggest increase in three years.
 Oil traders shrugged off data confirming a contraction in China's manufacturing sector. China's final HSBC Purchasing Managers Index
released earlier fell to a six-month low of 49.5 in January from a preliminary reading of 49.6 and down from 50.5 in December.
 On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD98.07 a barrel during Asian
trading, up 0.13%.
5
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6. Global Research Limited
Technical levels
Support1
Support2
GOLD
1230
1218
1260
1280
SILVER
18.82
18.51
19.58
20.03
COPPER
3.2058
3.1851
3.2528
3.2791
CRUDE
97.51
96.79
98.77
99.31
Resistance1
Resistance2
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