Por Mauricio Sárdenas Santamaría Director para América Latina Brookings Intitution en el marco del XXIII Congreso Nacional de Exportadores 2011 - Colombia

1. Mauricio Cárdenas Bogotá, septiembre 8 de 2011 La Década de América Latina y el Caribe: Una Oportunidad Real

3. América Latina y China (2009) Población en millones PIB (billones de dólares actuales) Población PIB (USD) Fuente: World Bank, World Development Indicators (2009)

4. Fuente: Maddison (2009). ¿Comenzará América Latina a cerrar la brecha?

5. Siete países en la región poseen más del 80% de la población y del PIB Fuente: World Bank, World Development Indicators (2009) PIB (USD) LAC &LAC7 GDP (Billions current USD) Poblaciones LAC &LAC7 Population in Millions 3607

7. Importaciones de la China (miles de millones de dólares) Source: General Administration of Customs; CEIC Note: Top 6 products and sectors as of 2010 a Motor vehicles and chassis; b Parts of motor vehicles and tractors; c Mineral fuels, lubricants, and others; d Chemicals and allied products.

8. Comercio entre China y LAC8 (miles de millones US) Note: All numbers are in billions of USD. Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

9. Exportaciones a China (% del total exportado) Source: UN COMTRADE Note: LAC7 series is average the seven individual economies

10. Imports from Argentina Exports to Argentina (USD Millions) (USD Millions) Comercio con China: Argentina Source: General Administration of Customs; CEIC Note: 12-month rolling sums

11. Imports from Brazil Exports to Brazil (USD Millions) (USD Millions) Source: General Administration of Customs; CEIC Note: 12-month rolling sums Comercio con China: Brasil

12. Imports from Chile Exports to Chile (USD Millions) (USD Millions) Source: General Administration of Customs; CEIC Note: 12-month rolling sums Comercio con China: Chile

13. Cambios en las participaciones sectoriales en el producto y el empleo, 2005 vs. 1990 Source: Timmer and Vries (2009) a Agriculture, public utilities, construction

14. Crecimiento promedio anual en el producto por trabajador 1990-2005 Source: Timmer and Vries (2009) a Agriculture, public utilities, construction

15. Source: Timmer and Vries (2009) Producto por trabajador en la minería y la industria (relativo a los servicios)

16. Participación de la industria manufacturera en el PIB Source: Haver; National Official Statistics Note: Mexico, Peru, Uruguay not seasonally adjusted. Brazil based on nominal data .

17. LAC: Exportaciones manufactureras por clasificación tecnológica (% exportaciones manufactureras) Source: Comtrade and own calculation. Note: The technological classification in Resource Based (RB), Low Technology (LT), Medium Technology (MT) and High Technology (HT) comes from Lall (2000).

18. Políticas de Desarrollo Productivo

20. Una expansión importante de la clase media Fuente: C árdenas, Kharas , Henao (2011). “ Latin America’s Emerging Middle Class” Brookings Working Paper.

21. La brecha en la calidad educativa reproduce la desigualdad Fuente: Mathematics score from Pisa (2006). Expenditure per Student, primary (% GDP) is the most recent data available in WDI (2004 for most of the countries). Public expenditure per student is the public current spending on education divided by the total number of students in the primary level.

22. Educación privada vs. pública : Rendimiento y estatus socioeconómico Fuente: OECD (2006).

25. Latin America: mixed results

26. Graduation criteria: Growth

27. Graduation criteria: Policy track record LAC (avg)

28. Policy track record disaggregated: Cyclically Adjusted Primary Fiscal Balance LAC (avg)

29. Graduation criteria: Financial Resilience

30. Graduation criteria: Development

31. Development disaggregated: Gini LAC (avg)

32. Development disaggregated: Human Development

33. Development disaggregated: Governance

34. Worldwide Sample: WGI Overall Governance vs. GDP per capita Sources: WGI: A Summary of Data, Methodology and Analytical Issues,” by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, September 2010 – www.govindicators.org & World Bank WDI, 2011; Note: Countries in Latin America are identified. Green indicates changes between 2000 & 2009 of 0.25 or greater, red indicates changes of -0.25 or greater; five ovals reflect 5 different “governance performance” groups according to the level of the x-axis variable. From worst (left-most) to best (right-most) – performing, quasi-performing, potential performers, challenged and not performing r = 0.76

35. Latin America: WGI Overall Governance vs. GDP per capita Sources: WGI: A Summary of Data, Methodology and Analytical Issues,” by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, September 2010 – www.govindicators.org & World Bank WDI, 2011; Note: Bubble size is log of population; Green indicates changes between 2000 & 2009 of 0.25 or greater, red indicates changes of -0.25 or greater; five ovals reflect 5 different “governance performance” groups according to the level of the x-axis variable. From worst (left-most) to best (right-most) – performing, quasi-performing, potential performers, challenged and not performing r = 0.56