1. Global SNCF Mobility Index
Edition 2012
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2. Context
• Global+5 Initiative
– This index is part of the Global+5 initiative to improve global and national policy-making
through a deeper understanding of crucial trends in relevant areas.
– To answer two powerful and important questions:
• what are the most important global issues when looking five years ahead? and
• which projects pursued today could make a real impact in five years’ time?
• Mobility as a Global Issue
– Mobility is the backbone of our globalized world by
• supporting the increasing demands of people to move around on urban, regional and global levels; and
• by supporting the global economy by allowing goods to be transported from production sites to the
locations of final use.
– Availability of mobility is becoming crucial to the future evolution of the world but it is also
becoming one of the crucial factors of negative impact on the world due to its rapid increase
and the resulting disruption, and due to its impact on the environment.
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3. The Index
An Introduction
• An On-going Effort
– This edition is the first approach to questions around the mobility.
– We are planning to continuously improve and develop this index over the coming years, and
hence have created an advisory board with prominent experts in the field of mobility to
advise and support us in this work.
• A Quality Approach
– We have only used data from global and quality data sources like the World Bank, OECD, and
UNCTAD.
• An Innovative Approach
– We have been using available data in an innovative, situational and holistic analysis; thus
helping to determine the stress points of mobility.
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4. Some Trends to Illustrate Our Approach
180.0 450 400
414 348
160.0 400 350
140.0
350 300
120.0
100.0 300
250
80.0 250 306 260
200
60.0 200
40.0 150
150
20.0
100
0.0 100 100
100
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
50 50
0 0
World Trade Volume Index World Real GDP Index 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Forecast of Passenger Transport Forecast of Freight Transport
350
294 Pas enger Trans
s port Surface Freight
300
70 70
250 60 60
200 50 50
226
40 40
150 2000
30 30
2050
100
100 20 20
50 10 10
0 0 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Cars + LT Buses Air Rail Other Trucks Rail Other
Forecast of Transport CO2 Emissions
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5. Objectives
• To reinforce information on sustainable economic development, in conjunction
with mobility, based on facts and trends.
• To raise awareness of the importance of the global mobility of goods on economic
development and the potential challenges in the coming years in regional and
urban mobility.
• To allow national policy- and decision-makers to benchmark their countries’
performance in mobility (global goods, and regional and urban mobility for people
and goods).
• To provide valuable insights into national policy for mobility strategies.
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6. The Index
What are we looking at?
• Goods Mobility Stress: How dependent is a country on the transport of goods for
its own economic development?
• Regional Urban Mobility Stress: How much will a country be exposed to system
stress for its regional and urban mobility—based on the future evolution of the
population, its demographic distribution and the urban population? Furthermore,
what is the current performance of this regional and urban mobility?
• Mobility Health Check: What is the impact of transport on the environment?
• Future Mobility Fitness: What is the future investment pattern, in view of the
modality of transport?
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12. Results and Insights
Goods Mobility Stress
• 21 of the 66 ranked countries have transport growth greater than GDP growth, but when we
look at the G20, we find more than half of them in this situation and three of the five BRICS
countries. For the European Union, one of them, Germany, is in this situation.
• Because of this significant number of countries exposed to the stress generated by goods
mobility, we can foresee a major impact in the coming years on world trade due to
saturation and overuse of transport infrastructure.
• This will also imply that the necessity to increase investment in transport infrastructure will
become crucial.
• When we put this in conjunction with the environmental impact, we can see that there are
the underpinnings of a major challenge to the sustainability of global goods mobility.
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13. Results and Insights
Regional Urban Mobility Stress
• Based on our innovative approach, we be able to understand the stress on mobility systems generated by
population and urbanization growth. Furthermore, the analysis of demographic evolution allows us to understand
elements of the future development of this stress on mobility systems.
• Countries fall in three distinct categories:
– Aging populations: Many developed countries in Europe and North America show significant stress due to a continued
significant growth of urbanization. This stress implies significant needs for mobility in urban centres and between them. This
implies that there is pressure to continuously develop these infrastructures, but given their aging populations, we can foresee a
reduction of mobility needs.
– Immediate stress: This second group of countries includes those that are currently exposed to Regional Urban Mobility Stress
and their demographic evolution shows that this will continue to be the case for the coming years. These countries are all
experiencing a combination of high population growth, which is mainly starting to decline, and high urban growth, either still
rising or reaching maturity.
– Stress in the coming five years: The third group includes countries with a high population growth and where stress will further
accentuate in the next few years due to demographic evolution. In all cases this growth will start to decline, though urban
growth is still rising for the majority. This implies the challenge to develop in a timely fashion transport infrastructure. Most
countries in this situation with the highest level of stress are also at the bottom of the Mobility Health Check Rating.
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14. Results and Insights
Mobility Health Check
• 58 of the 66 ranked countries have their CO2 emissions generated by transport increased in the
period 2000 to 2008.
• When we look at the European Union, only two countries have not had increases in CO2 emissions
due to transport.
• For the G20, only five have not had increased CO2 emissions generated by transport.
• Finally, when we look at BRICS, which are a motor of the global economy, all of them have
increased CO2 emissions generated by transport.
• In conclusion, we can easily see that the impact of transport on the environment will continue to
increase if we cannot address the increase in the demand for transport and better use the different
transport modalities to reduce that impact.
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15. Results and Insights
Future Mobility Fitness
• Looking at investment and maintenance decisions for the transport infrastructure in OECD
countries, we can see that only Austria is actually investing more in rail and waterways (we regroup
under waterways: inland waterways and seaport infrastructure) than in road and air.
• These investment choices will further contribute to the difficulty in reducing the environmental
impact of transport, as it is quite clear that rail and waterways have a much higher chance of
reducing the environmental impact than the other modalities.
• And a similar conclusion can be made when looking at the capacity to absorb significant increases
in the transport for goods. This analysis also shows the necessity to revisit the use and the
development of mobility infrastructure in a more holistic way.
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16. Rankings
European Union
Goods Mobility Stress Regional Urban Mobility Stress Mobility Health Check Future Mobility Fitness
1.Romania 2.21 1.Czech Republic 1.50 1.Germany 0.74 1.Austria 1.03
2.Czech Republic 1.41 Romania1.50 2.United Kingdom -0.05
Slovak Republic 1.50 2.France 0.32
3.Slovak Republic 1.35 3.Italy -0.05 3.Belgium -0.08
4.Hungary 1.14 2.Slovenia 1.00 4.Italy -0.27
3.Austria 0.00 4.United Kingdom -0.11
5.Greece 0.99 Finland 0.00 5.Portugal -0.24 5.Sweden -0.93
6.Slovenia 0.81 Greece 0.00 6.Finland -0.30 6.Germany -1.37
7.Ireland 0.72 Ireland 0.00 7.Netherlands -0.43 7.Finland -1.46
8.Austria 0.58 Italy 0.00 8.Denmark -1.58
8.Sweden -0.47
9.Denmark 0.45 4.Germany -1.00 9.Greece -1.64
Malta -1.00 9.Belgium -0.57
10.United Kingdom 0.37 10.Denmark -0.81 10.Czech Republic -1.82
5.Denmark -1.50
11.Italy 0.33 France -1.50 11.Greece -0.82 11.Slovak Republic -1.91
12.France 0.33 Hungary -1.50 12.Malta -0.89 12.France -2.41
13.Spain 0.32 Portugal -1.50 13.Austria -0.90 13.Portugal -2.43
14.Sweden 0.31 Spain -1.50 14.Spain -2.54
14.Spain -1.07
15.Netherlands 0.30 6.Belgium -2.00 15.Hungary -2.70
Sweden -2.00 15.Ireland -1.53
16.Finland 0.30 United Kingdom -2.00 16.Hungary -2.32 16.Romania -3.15
17.Portugal 0.17 7.Netherlands -3.00 17.Czech Republic -2.39 17.Slovenia -3.95
18.Belgium 0.10 18.Romania -2.87 18.Ireland -4.00
19.Malta 0.10 19.Slovenia -3.51 19.Malta NA
20.Germany -0.07 20.Slovak Republic -3.77 20.Netherlands NA
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