1. Anna Pollock, DestiCorp Keynote Presentation, Sydney, October 17 th , 2007

2. What do these men have in common?

3. An Age of Uncertainty ‘ Italy relies on external resources and the life of the Roman people is tossed daily on the uncertainties of sea and storm’ TACITUS

4. Predicting the Future “ There are many methods for predicting the future. For example, you can read horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards, or crystal balls. Collectively, these methods are known as “nutty methods”. Or you can put well-researched facts into sophisticated computer models, morecommonly referred to as “a complete waste of time”.

5. The Challenges of Forecasting

7. The Earth at Night

8. Internet Connections

9. Flight Connections

10. Economic Growth a function of Communication Economic Growth a function of Connectivity & Travel

11. It’s Not Size but Connections That Matter!

12. CONNECTIVITY INFORMATION and COMPLEXITY 1.5 billion Mobile phones 1.2 billion web users 108 million web sites 100 million blogs 6 billion people 9 billion people More Connectivity = More Complexity

14. More Complexity = More Uncertainty

15. CONNECTIVITY VOLATILITY & UNCERTAINTY TRENDS PARADIGMS DRIVERS Where Should leaders Focus Their Attention?

16. TRENDS DRIVERS PARADIGMS Or, Looked at Another Way

17. TRENDS DRIVERS PARADIGMS Most damage comes from from what you can’t see coming at you on the surface

18. Distinguishing Trends, Drivers and Paradigms

19. Distinguishing Trends, Drivers and Paradigms

20. Even the “Big Guys” can get It Wrong – for a while

21. Trends!

22. “ It was the Best of Times and the Worst of Times” Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

23. 1947-2007: Sixty years of MORE

24. More GDP US Data

25. More Tourists

27. More Access

28. More Media, More Traditional Channels * Before digital radio and podcasting, Not counting blogs, face book and myspace pages 1960 2003 * Radio Stations 4400 13,500 Magazine Titles 8,400 17,300 Channels per home 5.7 82.4

29. New Channels

30. 200,000,000 blogs 1.5 million residents >100,000,000 videos (65,000/day) www.ebay.com 21 Nov 2006 14,463,346 auctions Almost 4,000,000 articles (10 languages) 33,347,000 profiles 60 million members More New Channels

31. Having to Be Everywhere

32. 1947-2007: Sixty years of LESS

34. Less Comfort

36. Less Peace

37. Less Peace, Less ease 50% of UK buyers find holiday bookings stressful!

38. Everyone has Less Time

39. More Importantly, We have less Trust 76% of consumers don’t trust brands (Yankelovich) 80% of US shoppers place more trust in brands that offer ratings and reviews than those that don’t 75% of shoppers stated that it was extremely or very important to read customer reviews. Peer reviews are preferred over expert reviews by a 6 to 1 margin. Source: FutureLab

41. Blind Faith Collectivism Command Reasoned Faith Elective Collectivism Contract People are saying: “I can no longer rely on a single source of information. The omniscient, all-powerfull source – whether a news anchor, doctor, CEO or government official – is gone. Edelman Trust Barometer, 2006 While institutional trust is eroding Source: FutureLab

42. THERE IS STILL ONE TRUSTED MEDIUM LEFT IN THE WORLD MY FRIENDS – THEIR FRIENDS – AND ALL THOSE WE COLLECTIVELY RESPECT So Whom Do we Trust? Source: FutureLab

43. A person like yourself or a peer Edelman Trust Barometer 2006 When forming an opinion of a company, how credible would the information be from … People Trust People Source: FutureLab % Academic 62 Doctor or similar 62 Person like yourself/peer 61 Financial Analyst 58 NGO Rep 58 Accountant 53 Lawyer 36 Regular employee 33 CEO 29 Union 19 Entertainer 17 PR person 16 Blogger 15

44. This is not a “new hype” just an ignored reality Source: FutureLab 1955 Word-of-Mouth (WOM) is 7x more effective than newspaper advertising, 5x stronger than a personal sales pitch and 2x as effective as radio advertising 1967 36% of surveyed consumers reported learning of an innovation through word-of-mouth, while 48% reported being influenced by WOM when making a purchase decision 2001 Diffusion studies found that WOM is 10x more effective than media advertising 2006 61% trust other people like themselves (as media) - Edelman Trust Barometer, 2006

45. Good Experience I tell 4 people Anonymous Case: UK Consumer Electronics Bad Experience I tell 18 people Average Sale £ 230 WOM - It Works! Source: FutureLab Top 3 Purchase Influencers % In-store Sales Associate 49 In-store demonstration 36 Word-of-mouth from family & friends 33 Newspaper Coupons 25 Internet 21 Product/Company Information 16 Retailer information 14 Other 14 Magazines 4 TV 4 Radio 3

46. WOM Works! Source: Yahoo!

47. Based on: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2006 – attributes for building trust The key drivers for trust & closeness are “quality & service” Source: FutureLab UK FRA DEU ITA ESP Quality of products & services 2 1 1 1 1 Attentiveness to customer needs 1 1 2 2 2 Fair pricing for products & services 3 4 7 3 3 Good employee and labour relations 5 3 3 4 4 Strong financial performance 6 7 9 5 6 Socially responsible activities 7 5 5 5 6 Well-known corporate brand 4 6 8 7 5 Dialogue with all stakeholders 8 8 6 8 9 A visible CEO 9 8 4 9 8 Employee or CEO blogs 10 10 10 10 10

48. Drivers

49. 1. Open Source Technology Interoperability – software that talked Mix ‘n Match software From “web services” to widgets DestiCorp Paper – “Why web services will turn the industry on its head and why that’s a good thing!” 2002 Everyone can become an Intermediary

50. Boom Bust Echo 2. Generational Influences

53. Tribal and Communities

54. The Connected Individual Sits at the Centre of their Universe and Pulls!

56. Semi-amateurs start to “play for real” NEWS MEDIA BBC Newlsline Ticker 19,550 /million CNN 18,600 New York Times 8,740 Drudge Report 4,210 Washington Post 3,755 Reuters Online 3,680 Guardian Unlimited 2,985 Al Jazeera 2,925 Wall Street Journal 1,995 Le Monde 990 The Huffington Post 959 The Economist 740 Daily Kos (State of theNation) 722 Crooks&Liars (John Amato) 525 Xu Jing Lei 56,750/million 1,000-4,000 comments per article Blogs vs. Mainstream News Media : Early days, yet traffic is growing Every Citizen is a Reporter

57. 3. Power Shift We’ve talked about this for years Not done much to truly treat customer as king Technology now enables a change in approach

58. 2. Power Shift Intermediary Host Guest

59. 2. Power Shift Reviews Ratings Videos Blogs Syndication Blogs

60. Travel an Early Adopter of Social media

62. 4. Changing Demand Drivers & The Role of Brands

64. Paradigm

65. Old New

66. Old New

67. Recomm end ations

69. BEFORE DURING AFTER Virtual Virtual Real 2. Show Your CARE. Full Circle Marketing FANTASY EXPERIENCE MEMORY RETURN RECOMMEND

70. Full Circle Marketing, Dancing with the Customer!