1. ENV 3620
Italy and Climate
Change
By:Armando Calderon
Spring2012
4/23/2012

2. Italy and Climate Change
Global Climate change isproblemfacingeverynationinthe worldandwitheachyearthere is
more researchbeingdone thatdeterminesthatthe climate ischangingandwill have economicand
environmental consequences.Italyisaware of the problemandin recentyearstheyhave beenworking
on waysto combat the problem andhave analyzedthe alternativesforfossil fuelstohelpalleviate the
problemof global climate change.Italyisaware thatglobal climate change willbringmanyproblemsin
the future includingeconomiclosstotourisminthe alpine regions,lossof forest,desertification,lossof
revenue inthe wine industry,andinincrease infloodingincitieslike Venice.Witheconomicand
environmental issuesatrisk,Italyhasjoinedforceswith otherleadingnationsandhassignedthe Kyoto
Protocol to dotheirpart and create a sustainablesolutionforthe future. Severalenvironmentalissues
are analyzedsuchaslossof forest,increase floodinginVeniceandthe threatof the wine industryalong
withhowItalywill findsolutionsforthe growingissueof global climate change.
Italy and the Kyoto Protocol andPublic Opinion
Since Italyjoinedforceswithotherleadingnationstoagree underthe termsof the Kyoto
Protocol onFebruary16, 2005, Italyhas successful mettheirgoalsandhave made some extraordinary
mitigationmeasurestoface the challengesof the future regardingclimate change. Commitmentunder
the KyotoProtocol throughthe first period(2008-2012) involves atargetlevel of 60% below year2000
levelsof CO₂emissionsby2050, achievedviacontinuousannual reductionperyearbeyondthe first
Kyotocommitmentperiod..Accordingtothe International CouncilforCapital Formation,astudywas
done to projectItaly’sfuture basedonthe currentconditionsasof 2005 such as economicandstability
conditions.Basedonthe data,it wasprojected thatreal GDP in Italyisexpectedtoincrease by39%by
2025 basedon the year2000 emission levels.Energyuse isprojectedtoincrease 27.6% in2025 which
will consistof depletingrelianceonoil andan increase use of natural gas and renewablesourcesof
energy,(InternationalCouncil forCapital Formation,2005).

3. To achieve the goalsof the KyotoProtocol and to exceedthe goalsof the expectedreductionsof
emissionsinthe future,Italyhasseveral optionsfor achievingtheirgoal fora more sustainable future.
First,reducingenergyconsumptionand the reliance onoil willhelpinreducinggreenhousegases.While
Italydoesa good jobat conserving,there are still some improvementsthatcanbe workedonsothat
Italycan become more independentandreduce theirgreenhousegases.Anexample wouldbe toinvest
innuclearenergyandutilize electriccars.Because Italyhasthe technologyandcapacityto expandtheir
technologies,itisrealisticthattheycan utilize the technologytoreacha sustainable future. The
International Council forCapital Formationclaimsthat,if Italywere tomeetthe standardsof the Kyoto
Protocol,gasoline anddiesel priceswouldrise 11-16%,while powersectorwouldbe impactedbycoal
decliningandthenshiftingtowards natural gasandnuclearpower,(2005). Withthe stringenteffortsto
meetthe goalsof the KyotoProtocol,Italywill atfirstbe negativelyimpacteddue toa decrease in
employmentandGDPbut will eventuallybecome stable andwill tendtoamore positive outlookon
reachingthe goal.At first,itisexpectedthatthe people of Italywilldisagreewiththe stringent
regulationsthatwill be setinplace,butwithachange inthinking,itwill leadtoa growingsustainable
nationthat will worktogethertomeetthe goals of the KyotoProtocol.Asclimate change continuesto
grow as a challengingglobalissue,the people of Italywillworktogethertokeeptheir countrysafe and
minimize theircontributiontodesertification,sea-level rise,andtemperature increase within their
nation.
The theorythat citizensinItalywill eventuallyadapttothe strict regulationssetforthbythe
KyotoProtocol can be supportedbyresearchthat wasconductedbythe Centre forEnvironmental Risk
and Tyndall Centre forClimate Change Research. The researchevaluatedseveral surveysthatwere
conductedworldwideregardingclimate change.Accordingtoa Galluppoll conductedin2002, 86%
respondedtothe poll “ veryworried”or“quieta lotworried”onhow concern theywere onclimate
change.SimilarfigureswereevidentinotherEuropeancountries.The studyalsoshowedthatthe

4. people inItalyfoundthatenvironmentalissueswere inthe toppriorityof issuestoindividualsalong
withsocial andpersonal issues. The statisticsshow that peopleinItalyhave adifferentview ontheir
wayof life andtheirrelationtothe environmentcomparedtothe UnitedStates,wasenvironmental
concernrankedlowregardingprioritiestocitizens. Whilethe poll hascontributedtomanyfactors,the
Galluppoll can serve asan example of how the general publicfeelsaboutclimate change.The current
factors thatserve as a potential forpeople beingconcernedaboutclimate change canbe seen inseveral
ways.First,theirhighgas pricescan serve asa tool on understandingclimatechange andhow high
pricescan be correlatedwitha diminishingsupply.ByItalyhavingstrictcarbonemissionstandards,itis
likelythatpeopleare more aware of the consequencesof havinghighCO₂emissions.Secondly,Italy
beinga more openmindedcountryandhavingbetteraccesstoglobal issuescanalsoserve as a tool to
understandingclimatechange andhowotherEuropeancountriesare dealingwiththe issue.Finally,
althoughthe Galluppoll wasconductedin2002 and the Italylaterjoinedthe KyotoProtocol,itislikely
that withall the Italianmediainforming the publicaboutthe stringentregulations of the protocol,
people are more likelytochange andadapt their lifestyles tohelp alleviateclimate change andmake the
Italya more sustainableplace tolive.
It isbecomingmore evidenttothe peopleof Italythatthe problemof climate change is
affectingtheminseveral ways.The environmental andeconomicaspectscanbe seeninseveral ways.
In recentyearsthe lossof forestand woodlandsare occurringdue tothe warmingof the Mediterranean
have beenstudiedandshowthatthe problemwill onlygetworse if nothingisdone.Otherregionssuch
as Tuscany andVenice are seeingthe effectsof climate change due tothe shorteningof the grape
growingseasonforwine andthe increase stormsurgesinVenice.

5. Italy’s Woodlands, Venice and Tuscany
Italy’swoodlandsare beingimpactedbyglobal climate change accordingtoanarticle writtenby
Michael Day in2007. The article waswrittenin2007 from the Telegraphandstatesthatsouthern
Europe and the Mediterraneanare the areasthat are mostseverelyimpactedbyclimate change.A
reportrepresentedtothe Italiangovernmentsaidthateightoutof 10 treesacrossItaly's varied
ecosystemswere alreadysufferingfromthe effectsof risingtemperaturesanddiminishingrainfall asof
2007. ProfessorCarloBlasi of the Inter-universityCentre forBio-diversityatRome'sLa Sapienza
Universitysaidthe researchshowedthatathirdof the country'swoodlandwasseriouslythreatened,
and that 60 percent waslikelytosufferpermanentdamage.Also,because the Mediterraneanhasa
diverse arrayof animal and plantspecies,thisareaismostvulnerabletoclimate change andaccording
to ClimatologistDrFilippoGiorgi of the UN'sIntergovernmental Panel onClimate Change,“The
Mediterraneanwaswarmingupfasterthanthe rest of the world”.Of the six majordroughtsto occur in
Italyinthe last60 years,fourhave occurred since 1990. The average temperature hasincreasedby
0.4ºC inthe northin20 yearsand by0.7ºC in the south.Earlier reporthave suggestedthat10m hectares
were "at riskof desertification”.Whatthe increase temperaturesmeanforItaly’stree speciesisthat
only40 percentof the treesalongthe Mediterraneanare equippedtosurvive inhotteranddrier
conditionswhile the remaining60percentwill likelysufferfromincreasinglyhotandaridconditions.
Regionslike Tuscany,Umbria,Abruzzo,Puglia,andthe Islandsof SicilyandSardiniawouldbe the area’s
mostlikelytobe undera severe threatbecause of the lackof rainfall,(Day2007).
In response tothe rapidtemperature changes,EnvironmentministerAlfonsoPecoraro
Scaniosaid:"Fewerwoodlandsmean,amongotherthings,reducedcapacitytoabsorbcarbondioxide
releasedintothe atmosphere,andthatthe governmenthadsetaside £110m to tackle degradationof
forestandwoodlands.NotonlyhasincreasingtemperaturesaffectedItaly’sforestbutthe fallingcold

6. currentsand risingwatertemperaturesare exacerbatingperiodicflooding - andthisiscausingmassive
erosionalongItaly'sAdriaticcoastaccordingto Italy’sScientist,(Day2007).
Notonlyis Italy’swoodlandsdyingtoa response inglobal climatechange butcitieslikeVenice
will experience more severe weatherasresponse toincrease oceantemperaturesandashiftinwind
currents. Because of the geographical locationof Venice,the cityhasbeenextremelyvulnerable tothe
effectsof climate change.The cityisbuiltatsea-levelhasseeninincrease infrequencyof stormsurges
withadditiontoseafloodinginthe city.A studydone bythe National ResearchCouncil Institute,
Institute of AtmosphericSciencesandClimate in Italy haddone astudyin 2003 that evaluatedthe
factors leadingtoseafloodinginVenice.The purposeof the studywasto determinewhether ornotthe
citywas inthreat of beingsubmergeddue tothe response of oceanicwaterexpansiontoglobal
warming.Basedonthe current conditions,Venice isexposedtofloodtides,locallycalledacquaalta
(highwater) andthat floodtidesare a factorof several conditions.First,thereispressure patternwitha
lowon the westernorcentral Mediterranean.The low generatestwowinds:aSiroccowind,whichdrags
waterfrom the SE alongthe AdriaticSeaand a Bora windinthe Venice area,whichdragswaterfromthe
NE. Second,the barometriceffect,whichraisesthe sealevel where the atmosphericpressure islower.
Finally,there isthe rapidchange inatmosphericpressurewhichgeneratesafree oscillationinthe
AdriaticSea,(seiche),( Camuffo&Sturaro, 2003, p. 95). Withincreasingtemperaturesinthe
Mediterranean,the potential forhigherevaporationincreasesalongwithashiftinwindpatterns.Over
the past couple of yearsthe Mediterraneanbasinhasseenareductioninprecipitationandbringsless
potential forwateraccumulationatthe surface andan alterationof the hydrological cycle,whichresults
inmore withdrawal of groundwater.
Groundwaterwithdrawal isanotherproblemfacingVenice.Byhavingbothexpected
sea-level rise andthe sinkingof ground,due tothe extractionof waterfromsubsoil,inadditionto

7. natural forces,e.g.tectonicmovement,soil compactionandsedimentload,Venice islikelyto
experience more stormsurgesinthe nearfuture.The studywascomposedbyusingbyusingboth
instrumental datai.e.measuringthe average hightide level,(AHTL),withinthe cityandby
reconstructingthe relative sealevelrise fromphotographicpaintings.Next,proxydocumentarydata
was observedbyanalyzingandobservingwrittendocumentsof the VeniceRepublicsuchasdiaries,
newspapers,journals, thatcoverone millenniumthatdescribesstormsurgesandalsometeorological
data fromthe time thatit beganbeingrecordedinthe 1830’s. Once all the data wascollected,itwas
combinedandthe resultsshowedthatinmostrecenttimes(1965-2000), the frequencyinfloodsurges
peryear has notablyincreased.Figure one showshow the dramaticincrease hasrisenoverthe last
several decades.Factorsforthe increase instormsurge can be correlatedtoincrease ingroundwater
withdrawal whichledtosubsidence,andthe overall shiftinwindpatternsthathas intensifiedthe storm
surge intothe city,( Camuffo& Sturaro,2005, P.99).
The increase inthe frequencyinstormsurgescan leadtohazards conditionstohumansandthe
environment.Increase watersinthe citywill eventuallydamage homes,businesses,andhistorical
buildings.The sealevel rise will continuetoaffectVenice andwillintensifythe damagesbroughttothe
city.With more serve weatherandashiftinwindpatterns,the problemwillonlygetworse andwill
have a positive feedback.Withmore greenhousegasesbeingintroducedintothe atmospherewillbring
a warmingof the earthwhichwill leadtowarmingandshiftof the ocean currents.Once the ocean
currentsare shiftedandhave increase intemperature,the chancesforthe SiroccoWindsandthe Bora
windswill intensifyandwillhave alongerrange of time forcausingmore damage to the cityof Venice.
Next,withahigherfrequencyinstormsurgeswill strengthenthe potential forsubsidencebecause of
the highamountof groundwaterwithdrawal.Finally,the leadingfactortothe highwithdrawal of
groundwaterisbecause the Mediterraneaniswarmingandisaccumulatinglessprecipitationeachyear
witha higherevaporationrate,whichwillleadtohigherandhigherwithdrawalseachyear.All inall,

8. witha notable increase inglobal temperatures,Venice willexperiencethe negativeeffectsassociated
withglobal climate change andwill have toundergomajorchangestoavoidthe city beingcompletely
submergedinthe future.
Figure 1- Increase in Storm Surges
Source: Camuffo& Shuraro (2004) P. 93-103
Notonlywill Urbanareas like Venice willbe impactedbyglobal climatechange butrural areas
usedforagriculture will alsobe affected. Accordingtoa studyfundedbythe Innovationand
Developmentinthe Agro-ForestrySectorof the TuscanyRegion,itwasdetermine thatthe agriculture
sectoris likelytobe particularlyexposedtoclimate change consideringthe factthat animal andcrop
growthare largelydeterminedbythe weatherconditionsduringtheirlifecycles.One of the crops that
will be mosteffectedinthe regionof Tuscanywill be the wineproductionbecause of the soil variety
equilibriumthathastobe maintainedforhigh-qualitywine production.The processof makingwine isa

9. resultof the interactionbetweenthe local climate,the soil,andmostimportantlythe developmentof a
highqualitywine isatemperature drivenprocess. Asaresultof the increasingtemperaturesinthe
region,the qualityof the wine maydecrease due toawarmer climate.The influencethatglobal climate
change has on the wine industryistherefore akeyinfluence andwill have the potential to affectthe
income of the region.Accordingtothe study,In the Tuscanyregion,grapevines are cultivatedon61,627
ha (representing10%of the overall Italiangrapevinecultivationarea) withanaverage annual wine
productionof 2,811,022 hectoliters.Sangiovese isthe mostcommonvarietyinthe region,beinggrown
on 65.8% of the total grapevine cultivationarea.The grossproductionof the sectoris 341 million
euros—correspondingto13% of the grossproductionof the entire agricultural sector,( Moriondoetal.,
2010, P.555). Obviously,withincreasingtemperatures,the Tuscanyregionshouldbe aware of the
potential effectsof warmingof the region.
To evaluate the effectsof climate change inthe region,agroupof scientistscreatedseveral
methodstoevaluate howthe regionwill be affecteddue toincreasinggreenhousegasesbasedontwo
differentscenarios. ScenarioA2are CO2 emissionsof 830ppm in2100, and B2 are CO2 emissionsof 550
ppm. Next,eachtime seriesfrom1975 to 2099 were spiltintofour-subdatasetsrespectivelycalled
PresentPeriod(PP,1975-2005), Future Period1( FP1, 2006-2037), Future Period2 (FP2,2038-2069), and
Future Period3 (FP3,2070-2099). There were several methodscombinedthatwere incorporatedinto
the study.Methodsof study includedusingGISdata to predictandmap future effectsof wind
production.Next,the syntheticmeteorological datasetforthe periodinthe future wasappliedusinga
GCM statistical downscalingprocedureviaLARS-WG,overanexistingmeteorological network.The
networkconsistsof 119 weatherstationsrecordingdailyvaluesof TminandTmax,( Moriondoet al.,
2010, P. 555). Figure 2 showsthe shorteningof the growingseasonforbothscenarioswithdarker
regionsbeingshorterdays.Notice shouldbe takenthatwithmore CO2 emissions, the lengthof the

10. growingseasonwill decrease. Figure 3showsthe change in yieldingrowingseason.Inthisfigure,one
can see that there isa significantdecline inthe yieldasmore emissionsof CO2 are generated.
Figure 2- Change in growing season. Left to Right starting at A2 830 ppm FP1 ( 2206-2037), ( FP2 2038- 2069), (FP3 2070-
2099). Bottom is scenario B2 550 ppm.
Source:Moriondo Et. Al,2010, P.561

11. Figure 3- Change in grape yield over time Season Left to Right starting at A2 830 ppm FP1 ( 2206-2037), ( FP2 2038- 2069),
(FP3 2070-2099). Bottom is scenario B2 550 ppm.
Source::MoriondoEt. Al,2010, P.561
The resultsshowedthatinthe future a general andprogressive increase intemperature aswell
as temperature variabilitywilloccurfromPPto FP3, withthe increase more evidentthanB2. It wasalso
shownusingthe downscalingmodelsthatrainfall inthe springandsummerwilldecreaseoverthe years
due to the increase rise inCO2 emissions.All inall,the overall lengthof the grapevinegrowingseason(
time betweenbudbreakandmaturation) showedagradual decrease fromFP1to FP3, where the
greatestdecrease where athigherelevations. WhatthismeansforTuscany isthat that warmingof the
Earth will significantlyimpacttheiryieldsincrop.While there maybe otherareassuitable forgrape
production,the areaof Tuscany will be negativelyaffectedandwill have toundergoadifferentwayof
makingrevenue. The countryitself,will be greatlyaffectedbecause of the significantamountthatit
bringsto the country.With the findingsof the study,Italyshall recognize the effectsanduse the proper
mitigationtechniquestohelpcombatthe problem.

12. Sustainable Solutions
A wayto reduce the carbon emissionsandtohelpminimize the effectsof global climate change
isto introduce a carbon tax.As of 2012, Italyisattemptingtodo theirpart inreducinggreenhouse gases
emissionsbypenalizingthe use of fossil fuelsthatcan provide the revenueneededtosupporteconomic
developmentof renewable sources.Ina article writtenbyof Valere Gualerzinthe Repubblica,anonline
magazine inItaly,says that the carbon tax’sintentionwouldbe tohelpmeetthe requirementssetforth
by the KyotoProtocol.Foreach literof fuel,there wouldbe atax of 4 to 24 centswhichwouldbringa
reductionintransportemissionsbetween1.1and1.6 milliontonsand anincrease inrevenue between2
and 10 billion,( Gualerzi,2012).One sectorof the renewableenergyfieldthatisbeingfocusedissolar
energy.Withincome beinggenerated,itwill provide the Italiangovernmentwithanopportunityto
focusmore on solarenergyforthe countryand will helpminimize greenhouse gasemissions. Asof
2012, the bill wasinconference committee BudgetandFinance of the Senate andif passed,itwill
reconstructhowpeople will use fossilfuelsandprovide an economicincentiveonconservingfossilfuels
to reduce climate change.Finally,the if the bill goesintoeffect,the countrywill have the sources
neededtoinvestinalternative energyandwill serve asaleaderto othercountriesonhow alternative
energiescanbe developedfromthe use of fossil fuels.
Otherwaysto reduce carbon emissionscanbe achievedthroughthe increase use of nuclearand
or renewable energyforelectricity.Withincreasingprices,thismethodseemsmore economically
attractive. Switchingfromfossil fuelswithhighercarbonemissionrates(i.e.,coal,andpetroleum) to
those withloweremissionrates(i.e.natural gascan provide some reductionsneededtoreachthe
target of the KyotoProtocol.Although,switchingtoloweremittingfuelswill reduce the carbon
emissions,there needstobe otherstepsneededtomeetthe requirements.First,Investmentinenergy
efficientcapital isvital.Withthis,the governmentwill have the resourcesneededtoinvestinalternative
energy.Second,investmentinprocesschange willbe needed.Thiscanbe implementedbyeducation

13. and outreaching.Finally,areductioninpurchasesof energyandelectricitybybusinessesandconsumers
will needtobe implemented,(International CouncilforCapital Formation,2005 P.9).
AnotherstepthatItalyis takingwouldbe bypurchasinginternational creditsforcarbon
emissions.WiththisItalywill still have the opportunityforeconomicgrowthbutwill stillhave topayfor
carbon emissions.ForItaly,the allowance price thatwouldbe necessarytofullymeettheirKyototarget
in2010 through domesticactionsonlywouldexceedthe assumedprice forinternational credits.Thus,
domesticactionswouldmeet18%of theircommitment,andcompanieswouldpurchase international
creditsforthe remaining82%.
The total marketvalue of CO2 emissionallowancesinItalywouldbe nearly18billionEuros
(2004 €) in2010, risingtomore than24 billionEurosin2025 underCases1 and 2. In 2010, the market
value of CO2 emissioncreditspurchasedonthe international marketwouldbe 3.8 billionEuros(2004 €),
risingtobetween7.6billionand10.6 billionEurosin2025. If Italymeetsthe KyotoProtocol’semission
reductiontarget,pricesforindustrywouldrise dramatically.Italian industrieswouldpaymore than44%
more for natural gas and 13% more forelectricityunderthe assumptionthatthe KyotoProtocol’s
emissiontargetsare made evenmore stringentinthe post-2012 period,the impactonhousehold
heatingoil priceswouldrise tomore than15% above the baselineestimate by2025. Gasoline anddiesel
priceswouldrise substantially,between11-16% by 2025, (International CouncilforCapital Formation,
2005 P.15). All inall,the international creditsystemmaybe away to help alleviate the emissionsof
Italy,butit islikelythatthe companieswillpassonthe price of emittingcarbonto theirconsumers.
All inall,itis clearthat Italywill face manyproblemsinthe future asglobal climate change
continues.Withmore environmental andeconomicissuestooccur,the countryneedstodo theirpart in
reducingemissions.The bestmethodtoreduce emissionswouldbe touse the carbon tax.Because of
the highdemandof petroleum,the demandisnotlikelytodecrease;therefore itisrealistictocharge

14. people forthe use of fossil fuelssothatthe revenue made canbe appliedtorenewable sources.
Educationand awarenessislikelytoincrease inItalyinyearstocome withmore issuesbecomingmore
evident. WithEducation,governmentintervention,andcommunitycommitmentpeoplewill tendto
shifttheirviewonenergyandfocusonalternative sources.Withalternative sources,Italywilldotheir
part insavingtheirresourcesandprotecttheirsourcesof income suchas tourismand crop production.

15. References
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assessthe riskof factorsleadingtoseafloodinginVenice”. National ResearchCouncilforAtmospheric
SciencesandClimate Retrievedfromthe ScienceDirectDatabase on7 March 2012.
Day, Michael.(2007)” Italy'swoodlandsdyingdue toclimate change”The Telegraph:retrievedon20
March 2012 fromhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3318974/Italys-woodlands-dying-due-
to-climate-change.html
Gualerzi,Valere.(2012 March, 19) “ A Carbon Tax forRenewable TurningGreeninthe ProxyTax.”La
RebbulicaRetrievedon2012 April 18 from
http://www.repubblica.it/ambiente/2012/03/19/news/carbon_tax_pro_rinnovabili-31842766/
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November) “Frameworkforhigh- resolutionclimate change impactassessmentongrapevinesata
regional scale”. (PP.553-567) RetrievedfromSpringerAcademicDatabase on2012 17 March