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India’s Steel Industry
Markus Hyvonen and Sean Langcake*

Indian steel production has grown strongly in recent decades and India is now the world’s fourth-
largest steel producer. Nevertheless, India’s consumption of steel relative to the size of its economy
is very low by international standards. As the economy develops further, steel consumption is
likely to increase. Indeed, Indian steelmakers have plans to expand capacity substantially in
order to meet the anticipated increase in demand. While India has relatively large reserves of iron
ore, its steelmakers import most of the coking coal they require. As Australia is a major supplier
of coking coal to India, these exports from Australia are likely to expand further.




Introduction                                                                                 Graph 1
                                                                         Global Crude Steel Production
Steel production in India has expanded rapidly in                                                 2011
recent decades and, as a result, India has become         Mt                                                                      Mt

the world’s fourth-largest producer of crude steel
(having been the 10th largest in 1995; Graph 1).          600                                                                     600
Relative to the size of its economy, India’s steel
consumption, however, remains low; with large
                                                          400                                                                     400
additions to steelmaking capacity planned to meet
expected growth in steel demand, the nation’s steel
industry is expected to expand as India develops          200                                                                     200
further.
While India has large reserves of relatively               0                                                                      0
high-quality iron ore, its reserves of coking coal                  China         Japan            US          India   Russia
                                                                Source: World Steel Association (worldsteel)
are limited and mostly unsuitable for steelmaking;
accordingly, Indian steelmakers import much of the         firms. India’s first Five Year Plan, introduced in 1952,
coal required for producing steel. Australia is a major    imposed a number of restrictions and effectively
source of India’s coking coal imports, and given its       placed the sector under state control. Large-scale
proximity to India, these exports are likely to grow       expansions in steelmaking capacity were reserved
as Indian steel production expands. This article           for public sector enterprises, the Indian Government
discusses the Indian steel industry, focusing on its       set the price of steel sold by large producers and
structure, the production technologies used and the        quantitative restrictions and tariffs were imposed on
sources of its steelmaking commodities.                    imports of inputs and finished steel. Sizeable public
                                                           sector investment in steelmaking capacity since the
History and Structure                                      first Five Year Plan helped steel production grow
Prior to independence in 1947, India had a small           strongly in the decades following independence,
steel industry comprised entirely of private sector        with average annual growth exceeding 8 per cent
                                                           between 1950 and 1970 (Joint Plant Committee nd).
*	 The authors are from Economic Group.




                                                                                    B u l l e tin | m a r c h Q ua r t e r 2012        29
I ndi a’s STEEL INDUST RY


          Steel production continued to expand during the                                 However, more recent estimates suggest that India’s
          1970s and 1980s, though slowed somewhat from                                    steelmaking capacity will exceed 100 million tonnes
          the pace of the preceding decades, consistent with                              by as early as 2013 (Ministry of Steel 2011).
          lower rates of growth in per capita incomes over this                           The legacy of earlier public sector involvement is
          period (Baker and Cagliarini 2010). A new industrial                            reflected in the current structure of the Indian steel
          policy introduced in the wake of the early 1990s                                industry, with the state-owned Steel Authority of
          balance of payments crisis removed many of the                                  India Limited and Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited
          restrictions on the steel industry and tariff barriers                          still accounting for around a quarter of total crude
          were reduced; furthermore, foreign investment in                                steel production in 2009/10 (Ministry of Steel 2011).
          the sector was permitted, with the steel industry                               Including the two largest private steelmakers, TATA
          included on the list of ‘high priority’ industries for                          Steel and JSW Steel, these producers operate a
          automatic approval of up to 51 per cent foreign                                 handful of integrated steel plants that account for
          equity investment. Private sector firms, in particular,                         the majority of steel made in India using the blast
          took advantage of their ability to expand, and steel                            furnace/basic oxygen converter method (Table 1).
          production accelerated. Growth in steel production                              This method of steelmaking uses coking coal and
          in the 1990s averaged around 10 per cent (Graph 2).                             iron ore as primary inputs, though scrap steel can be
                                                                                          substituted for iron ore.
                                        Graph 2
                 India – Steel Production Growth*                                         Private firms dominate the production of steel
     %                                                                             %
                                                                                          using the two electric furnace methods; three large
                                           Decade average
                                                                                          producers account for roughly half of all electric
     20                                                                            20
                                                                                          arc furnace steelmaking, while electric induction
                                                                                          furnace steelmaking is very decentralised, with over
     10                                                                            10
                                                                                          a thousand plants operating in 2009/10 (Table 1).
                                                                                          Electric furnace steelmaking can utilise both scrap
     0                                                                             0
                                                                                          steel and direct-reduced iron – made from iron ore
                                                                                          – as inputs, without requiring the addition of coking
 -10                                                                                -10
                                                                                          coal.2

 -20                                                                              -20     Strong growth in private sector steelmaking, which
                  85/86       90/91        95/96        00/01     05/06       10/11       tends to use smaller capacity plants, together with
          * Refers to Indian fiscal years (1 April to 31 March)
          Sources: CEIC; RBA                                                              broadly stable public sector capacity means that
                                                                                          the electric furnace methods now account for
          The sector continued to expand at a relatively
                                                                                          the majority of India’s steel production. As a result,
          rapid pace in the early 2000s, and the government
                                                                                          steelmaking in India is less commodity intensive
          announced India’s first National Steel Policy in
                                                                                          than elsewhere; the share of crude steel produced
          November 2005 to guide the future development
                                                                                          using the blast furnace/basic oxygen converter
          and growth of the sector. The policy’s stated
                                                                                          method in India is half that of China and the lowest
          long-term goal was that ‘India should have a
                                                                                          among the major steel-producing countries (World
          modern and efficient steel industry of world
                                                                                          Steel Association 2011). Even so, much of the steel
          standard, catering to diversified steel demand’
                                                                                          produced by electric furnaces in India uses direct-
          (Ministry of Steel 2005). The policy projected that
                                                                                          reduced iron rather than scrap metal, so iron ore
          India’s domestic steel production would grow in line
          with GDP to reach 100 million tonnes by 2019/20.1
                                                                                          2	 Direct-reduced iron is made by reducing iron ore to iron by heating it
          1	 All mentions of fiscal years in this article refer to Indian fiscal years,      in the presence of gas containing hydrogen and carbon monoxide. It
             which run from 1 April to 31 March.                                             is also known as sponge iron.




30        R es erv e b a n k o f Aus t ra l i a
In dia’s STEEL INDUSTRY


                             Table 1: India – Crude Steel Production by Process
                                                                        2009/10

     Process                                    Number of plants                                Production                       Production
                                                                                               Megatonnes                  Share of total (%)
     Blast furnace/basic
     oxygen converter                                                  13(a)                                   29                              45
     Electric arc furnace                                              39                                      16                              24
     Electric induction
     furnace                                                       1 114                                       20                              31
     Total                                                             na                                      65                           100
     (a)	Refers to the number of integrated steel plants with at least one blast furnace; some plants have multiple blast furnaces or a 	
     	 combination of both blast and electric furnaces
     Sources: Ministry of Steel (2011); authors’ calculations; company websites


is still used as an input for most of the crude steel                                                          Graph 3
produced in India.3                                                                                   India – Steel Trade
                                                                               Mt               Exports                           Imports              Mt

Steel Demand and Trade                                                          8                                                                     8
The production of finished steel in India is fairly
                                                                                                                                         Total
evenly split between ‘long products’ (bars, rods,                               6                                                                     6
wires, etc), which are typically used in construction,
and ‘flat products’ (steel strips, plates, sheets, etc),                        4                                                                     4
which are used in manufacturing. Construction and
infrastructure are estimated to account for roughly                             2                                                                     2
40 per cent of steel consumption, and manufacturing
(including automobile production) for around 30 per                             0                                                                      0
                                                                                           1996       2003          2010     1996       2003        2010
cent of consumption (Indicus Analytics 2009).
                                                                                        Semi-finished steel     Long products  Flat products
                                                                                                                Tubes and pipes
While domestic steel production has historically                                    Sources: RBA; United Nations COMTRADE database; World Steel
been sufficient to satisfy domestic demand, India has                                        Association (worldsteel)


recently become a net importer of steel, reflecting                            and tubes). Nonetheless, steel remains an important
strong growth in Indian steel consumption                                      source of export revenue, accounting for around
(Graph 3). Imports of flat products have grown                                 4 per cent of the total value of India’s exports in 2010.
particularly strongly in recent years, as manufacturing
                                                                               Most of India’s imports of steel come from other
production grew strongly in the years leading up to
                                                                               large steel-producing countries. Imports from China
the global financial crisis and has recovered strongly
                                                                               have grown strongly over the past five years or so,
subsequently. At the same time, India’s steel exports
                                                                               with China now accounting for around one-third of
have fallen (with the exception of shipments of pipes
                                                                               the value of India’s steel imports (Table 2). Sizeable
                                                                               steel imports from advanced economies suggest
3	 The Ministry of Steel (2011) estimates that steel generated from ship
   recycling accounts for 1 to 2 per cent of total Indian steel demand.
                                                                               that there are certain types of products that are
   Furthermore, imports of steel scrap were equal to around 7 per cent         either not produced in India or for which domestic
   of the production of finished steel in 2009/10. These figures suggest
   that scrap is used as an input for at least 8 per cent of the finished
                                                                               capacity is insufficient to meet demand; for example,
   steel produced in India, though the actual figure is likely to be higher    Indian automakers import much of the high-grade
   once other sources of scrap, such as the recycling of durable goods,
                                                                               steel used for manufacturing outer panels of cars
   are taken into account.




                                                                                                      B u l l e tin | m a r c h Q ua r t e r 2012           31
I ndi a’s STEEL INDUST RY



                                                    Table 2: India’s Trade in Steel
                                                                      Per cent
                                     Exports                                                               Imports
                     2010                                   2000                               2010                     2000
         Destination             Share         Destination          Share             Origin           Share Origin         Share
                                of total(a)                        of total(a)                        of total(b)          of total(b)
         United States             14.0        United States          28.3            China             29.8   Japan           15.8
                                               United Arab                            South
         Saudi Arabia                9.4       Emirates                 6.6           Korea             13.9   Russia          13.9
         United Arab
         Emirates                    7.9       Italy                    5.8           Japan             11.7   Germany          9.4
                                                                                                               South
         Belgium                     7.7       Canada                   5.6           Russia             5.3   Korea            8.9
         Iran                        7.0       Sri Lanka                4.2           Germany            4.9   Ukraine          7.2
         (a)	Share of the total value of India’s steel exports
         (b)	Share of the total value of India’s steel imports
         Source: United Nations COMTRADE database


     (Mazumdar 2010). While the United States is the                             suggests that India’s steel consumption per capita
     largest destination for Indian steel exports, around                        will continue to grow, although the speed of this
     one-third of exports go to oil-producing countries                          increase will largely be determined by the rate at
     in the Middle East (Table 2). Detailed export data                          which India urbanises and industrialises (Graph 4).
     reveal that a large share of the shipments to the                           To cater for increases in domestic steel demand, the
     Middle East consists of steel pipes suitable for oil                        Indian steel industry has expansion plans which,
     and gas pipelines. India was the world’s largest                            if fully realised, would see capacity expand to over
     exporter of steel pipes for oil and gas pipelines in                        275 million tonnes – a more than threefold increase
     2010, and lower shipping costs (owing to the relative                       in capacity (Ministry of Steel 2011). As much as
     proximity of India to the Middle East) are reflected                        30 million tonnes of additional capacity is expected
     in the region’s oil-producing countries sourcing the                        to come online during 2011/12 and 2012/13,
     majority of their imports of pipelines from India.                          which should see productive capacity increase by
     Consistent with India’s low income per capita, its                          roughly 40 per cent. The Indian authorities are also
     steel consumption per capita is currently very low                          optimistic about the medium-term prospects for
     relative to other large economies. In 2010, India’s                         steel production, with the Ministry of Steel (2011)
     consumption of steel (in crude steel equivalent                             expecting that India will overtake Japan and the
     terms) was 49 kg per capita, compared with 539 kg                           United States to become the world’s second-largest
     in Japan, 445 kg in China, 292 kg in the United States                      producer of crude steel by 2015/16.
     and a world average of around 220 kg (World Steel
     Association 2011). India’s low steel consumption                            Demand for Iron Ore and
     partly reflects its relatively limited urbanisation to                      Coking Coal
     date; in 2010, only 30 per cent of India’s population
                                                                                 India’s demand for iron ore is currently met largely
     lived in urban areas (compared with an average of
                                                                                 through extraction of high-quality hematite reserves
     42 per cent across Asia) having risen from under
                                                                                 located in the eastern states of Odisha, Jharkhand
     20 per cent in 1970 (United Nations 2010). The
                                                                                 and Chhattisgarh and the south-western states of
     pattern of development in other major economies




32   R es erv e b a n k o f Aus t ra l i a
In dia’s STEEL INDUSTRY


                                                                        Graph 4                                         iron ore has grown (Graph 5). Part of this decline in
                                                 Steel Consumption and Economic                                         exports is attributable to the desire of policymakers
                                                           Development*                                                 to make more use of India’s iron reserves for
                                                                                                                        domestic steel production, which has been actively
                                                                                                   Japan**              pursued through the use of export duties on iron ore.
Steel consumption per capita – kg




                                                                                                 (1954–2011)
                                    600                                                                                 Through 2009 and 2010, export duties were raised
                                                   China
                                               (1971–2011)
                                                                                                                        from 0 to 5 per cent on fines, and from 5 to 15 per
                                                                                                                        cent on lumps. Duties for both were raised to 20 per
                                    400
                                                                                                                        cent in the 2011/12 budget, and then again to 30 per
                                                                                           US                           cent at the beginning of 2012. These higher duties
                                                                                      (1904–2011)
                                    200                                                                                 are reducing India’s contribution to the seaborne iron
                                                                                                                        ore market and shifting demand for iron ore to other
                                                         India
                                                     (1971–2011)                                                        major exporters such as Australia and Brazil.
                                     0
                                          0                10        20          30                 40
                                                            Real GDP per capita – US$’000                                                                Graph 5
                                              * 2011 prices using 2005 PPP exchange rates; 5-year moving averages
                                              ** Japanese fiscal years prior to 2009                                                      China – Iron Ore Imports
                                              Sources: Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics; CEIC; Conference        Mt                                                                        %
                                                       Board; IMF; Japan Iron and Steel Federation; Maddison (2009);                                              India’s share of total
                                                       Thomson Reuters; US Geological Survey; World Steel Association
                                                       (worldsteel)

                                                                                                                        60                                                                        30
                                          Karnataka and Goa. Extraction and crushing of the                                            Total
                                          iron ore processed from these reserves leaves it in
                                          the form of lumps (56 per cent of iron ore), fines                            40                                                                        20

                                          (21 per cent), and a mix of lumps and fines (13 per                                                Australia
                                          cent).4 Lumps are ready for use in steel production,
                                                                                                                        20                                                                        10
                                          whereas fines are smaller in size and are required                                                      Brazil

                                          to go through an agglomeration process (typically
                                                                                                                                                India
                                          either sintering or pelletisation) before they can                             0                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                        2008               2012         2008               2012
                                          be used in steel production.5 Additional domestic                                  Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; RBA
                                          demand is met by the country’s deposits of lower
                                          grade magnetite reserves, extracted as fines (Indian                          Indian policymakers are also seeking to increase
                                          Bureau of Mines 2011a).                                                       domestic agglomeration of iron ore fines, which
                                                                                                                        will further limit India’s contribution to the seaborne
                                          India is currently the world’s third-largest exporter of
                                                                                                                        market. In 2009/10, 90 per cent of Indian iron
                                          iron ore behind Australia and Brazil. In recent years,
                                                                                                                        ore exports were in the form of fines (equivalent
                                          however, India’s exports as a share of total production
                                                                                                                        to over 70 per cent of total fines production). As
                                          have been declining (World Steel Association 2011).
                                                                                                                        agglomeration procedures are capital intensive
                                          Shipments to China, which account for over 85 per
                                                                                                                        to start up, the bulk of these facilities in India are
                                          cent of Indian exports of iron ore, have fallen over the
                                                                                                                        operated by integrated steel plants. India’s iron
                                          past few years, even as China’s demand for imported
                                                                                                                        ore industry has many participants (319 reported
                                          4 	 The remaining 10 per cent are processed as black iron ore, other or       mines in 2009/10), but is highly concentrated, with
                                              unknown grades.
                                                                                                                        18 per cent of mines producing 72 per cent of
                                          5 	 Iron ore fines cannot be used directly in blast furnaces as they block
                                              the flow of air around the raw materials. Agglomeration is the process    total output (Indian Bureau of Mines 2011a). The
                                              of converting fines into lumpier aggregates, either with or without       National Steel Policy has recognised the need to
                                              additives such as limestone or dolomite. Sinters are made of coarser
                                              iron ore fines and are the preferred input in blast furnaces, whereas
                                                                                                                        increase agglomeration capacity and encourage
                                              pellets are made from very fine iron ore.                                 the formation of consortiums among smaller mines



                                                                                                                                               B u l l e tin | m a r c h Q ua r t e r 2012             33
I ndi a’s STEEL INDUST RY


     in order to pool their fines and make greater use of                               Graph 6
     this resource domestically (Indian Bureau of Mines                   Australia – Coking Coal Exports
                                                               Mt                                                           Mt
     2011b).
     Over the next 15 to 20 years, existing high-grade         50                                                           50
                                                                                        Japan
     hematite reserves are expected to be depleted
                                                               40                                                           40
     (Indian Bureau of Mines 2011b). However, India
     expects to remain self-sufficient in its supply of iron   30                                                           30
     ore for the foreseeable future. Advances in drilling                                           India
     technology are expected to allow access to more           20                                                           20

     reserves beyond the current attainable depth in iron                                        South Korea
                                                               10                                                           10
     ore mining areas. Additionally, exploration in some                                                       China
     known hematite-bearing regions has not been                0                                                          0
                                                                               1999       2003         2007            2011
     exhaustive; as this exploration continues, estimates           Sources: ABS; RBA
     of hematite reserves are expected to increase.
     Furthermore, greater domestic consumption of fines        Conclusion
     and the restriction of supply to the global market will
                                                               Indian steel production has grown strongly in
     help to ensure a sufficient supply of local resources.
                                                               recent decades and is likely to continue to expand
     By contrast, Indian coking coal reserves are quite        as domestic producers increase their capacity to
     small and tend to be of low quality, needing to be        meet anticipated demand. Given its relatively large
     blended with higher-grade imported coal for use in        reserves of iron ore, India is likely to remain self-
     steel production. To meet rising demand from steel        sufficient in its supply of iron ore for the foreseeable
     production, India has become an increasingly large        future. In contrast, Indian steelmakers rely heavily on
     purchaser in the global coking coal market. India is      imports for their coking coal needs. As Australia is
     now the third-largest importer of coking coal in the      a major supplier of coking coal to India, growth in
     world (World Coal Association 2011). Since the early      Indian steel production is likely to see these exports
     2000s, Australia’s coking coal exports to India have      from Australia expand further. R
     risen steadily, and India is now the second most
     important destination of these exports behind Japan       References
     (Graph 6). Coal now comprises around one-third of
                                                               Baker M and Cagliarini A (2010), ‘Economic Change in
     the value of Australian exports to India, with almost     India’, RBA Bulletin, September, pp 19–24.
     all of coal exports made up of coking coal.
                                                               Indian Bureau of Mines (2011a), ‘Indian Minerals
     India’s National Steel Policy has identified the need     Yearbook 2010’. Available at <http://ibm.nic.in/imyb2010.
     to further develop non-coking coal methods of steel       htm>.
     production, such as the use of electric arc furnaces      Indian Bureau of Mines (2011b), ‘Iron & Steel – Vision
     (Ministry of Steel 2005). However, given existing blast   2020’. Available at <http://ibm.nic.in/vision2020.htm>.
     furnace production capacity, this technology is likely
                                                               Indicus Analytics (2009), ‘Indian Steel Industry: Final
     to continue to play a role in the development of the
                                                               Report Prepared for the Competition Commission of India’,
     local steel industry and drive further demand for         January. Available at <http://www.cci.gov.in/images/
     Australian coking coal in the future.                     media/completed/Indicussteel_20090420151842.pdf>.

                                                               Joint Plant Committee (nd), ‘Steel Frame: Profile of
                                                               the Indian Iron and Steel Industry’. Available at <http://
                                                               jpcindiansteel.nic.in/profile.asp>.




34   R es erv e b a n k o f Aus t ra l i a
In dia’s STEEL INDUSTRY


Maddison A (2009), ‘Statistics on World Population, GDP     United Nations (United Nations Department of
and Per Capita GDP, 1-2008 AD’. Available at <http://www.   Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division)
ggdc.net/MADDISON/Historical_Statistics/horizontal-         (2010), World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision,
file_02-2010.xls>.                                          United Nations, New York.

Mazumdar R (2010), ‘Emerging Hub for Automotive Steel’,     World Coal Association (2011), ‘Coal & Steel Facts 2011’,
www.economictimes.com, 28 May. Available at <http://        August. Available at <http://www.worldcoal.org/bin/pdf/
articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2010-05-28/           original_pdf_file/coal_and_steel_facts_2011(17_08_2011).
news/27593564_1_nippon-steel-auto-steel-automotive-         pdf>.
steel>.
                                                            World Steel Association (2011), Steel Statistical
Ministry of Steel (Ministry of Steel, Government of         Yearbook 2011, World Steel Association, Brussels, pp
India) (2005), ‘National Steel Policy – 2005’, November.    24–25. Available at <http://www.worldsteel.org/dms/
Available at <http://steel.nic.in/nspolicy2005.pdf>.        internetDocumentList/statistics-archive/yearbook-archive/
                                                            Steel-statistical-yearbook-2011/document/Steel%20
Ministry of Steel (2011), Annual Report 2010–11.
                                                            statistical%20yearbook%202011.pdf>.
Available at <http://steel.nic.in/Annual%20Report%20
(2010-11)/English/Annual%20Report%20(2010-11).pdf>.




                                                                             B u l l e tin | m a r c h Q ua r t e r 2012   35

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Bu 0312-4

  • 1. India’s Steel Industry Markus Hyvonen and Sean Langcake* Indian steel production has grown strongly in recent decades and India is now the world’s fourth- largest steel producer. Nevertheless, India’s consumption of steel relative to the size of its economy is very low by international standards. As the economy develops further, steel consumption is likely to increase. Indeed, Indian steelmakers have plans to expand capacity substantially in order to meet the anticipated increase in demand. While India has relatively large reserves of iron ore, its steelmakers import most of the coking coal they require. As Australia is a major supplier of coking coal to India, these exports from Australia are likely to expand further. Introduction Graph 1 Global Crude Steel Production Steel production in India has expanded rapidly in 2011 recent decades and, as a result, India has become Mt Mt the world’s fourth-largest producer of crude steel (having been the 10th largest in 1995; Graph 1). 600 600 Relative to the size of its economy, India’s steel consumption, however, remains low; with large 400 400 additions to steelmaking capacity planned to meet expected growth in steel demand, the nation’s steel industry is expected to expand as India develops 200 200 further. While India has large reserves of relatively 0 0 high-quality iron ore, its reserves of coking coal China Japan US India Russia Source: World Steel Association (worldsteel) are limited and mostly unsuitable for steelmaking; accordingly, Indian steelmakers import much of the firms. India’s first Five Year Plan, introduced in 1952, coal required for producing steel. Australia is a major imposed a number of restrictions and effectively source of India’s coking coal imports, and given its placed the sector under state control. Large-scale proximity to India, these exports are likely to grow expansions in steelmaking capacity were reserved as Indian steel production expands. This article for public sector enterprises, the Indian Government discusses the Indian steel industry, focusing on its set the price of steel sold by large producers and structure, the production technologies used and the quantitative restrictions and tariffs were imposed on sources of its steelmaking commodities. imports of inputs and finished steel. Sizeable public sector investment in steelmaking capacity since the History and Structure first Five Year Plan helped steel production grow Prior to independence in 1947, India had a small strongly in the decades following independence, steel industry comprised entirely of private sector with average annual growth exceeding 8 per cent between 1950 and 1970 (Joint Plant Committee nd). * The authors are from Economic Group. B u l l e tin | m a r c h Q ua r t e r 2012 29
  • 2. I ndi a’s STEEL INDUST RY Steel production continued to expand during the However, more recent estimates suggest that India’s 1970s and 1980s, though slowed somewhat from steelmaking capacity will exceed 100 million tonnes the pace of the preceding decades, consistent with by as early as 2013 (Ministry of Steel 2011). lower rates of growth in per capita incomes over this The legacy of earlier public sector involvement is period (Baker and Cagliarini 2010). A new industrial reflected in the current structure of the Indian steel policy introduced in the wake of the early 1990s industry, with the state-owned Steel Authority of balance of payments crisis removed many of the India Limited and Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited restrictions on the steel industry and tariff barriers still accounting for around a quarter of total crude were reduced; furthermore, foreign investment in steel production in 2009/10 (Ministry of Steel 2011). the sector was permitted, with the steel industry Including the two largest private steelmakers, TATA included on the list of ‘high priority’ industries for Steel and JSW Steel, these producers operate a automatic approval of up to 51 per cent foreign handful of integrated steel plants that account for equity investment. Private sector firms, in particular, the majority of steel made in India using the blast took advantage of their ability to expand, and steel furnace/basic oxygen converter method (Table 1). production accelerated. Growth in steel production This method of steelmaking uses coking coal and in the 1990s averaged around 10 per cent (Graph 2). iron ore as primary inputs, though scrap steel can be substituted for iron ore. Graph 2 India – Steel Production Growth* Private firms dominate the production of steel % % using the two electric furnace methods; three large Decade average producers account for roughly half of all electric 20 20 arc furnace steelmaking, while electric induction furnace steelmaking is very decentralised, with over 10 10 a thousand plants operating in 2009/10 (Table 1). Electric furnace steelmaking can utilise both scrap 0 0 steel and direct-reduced iron – made from iron ore – as inputs, without requiring the addition of coking -10 -10 coal.2 -20 -20 Strong growth in private sector steelmaking, which 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 tends to use smaller capacity plants, together with * Refers to Indian fiscal years (1 April to 31 March) Sources: CEIC; RBA broadly stable public sector capacity means that the electric furnace methods now account for The sector continued to expand at a relatively the majority of India’s steel production. As a result, rapid pace in the early 2000s, and the government steelmaking in India is less commodity intensive announced India’s first National Steel Policy in than elsewhere; the share of crude steel produced November 2005 to guide the future development using the blast furnace/basic oxygen converter and growth of the sector. The policy’s stated method in India is half that of China and the lowest long-term goal was that ‘India should have a among the major steel-producing countries (World modern and efficient steel industry of world Steel Association 2011). Even so, much of the steel standard, catering to diversified steel demand’ produced by electric furnaces in India uses direct- (Ministry of Steel 2005). The policy projected that reduced iron rather than scrap metal, so iron ore India’s domestic steel production would grow in line with GDP to reach 100 million tonnes by 2019/20.1 2 Direct-reduced iron is made by reducing iron ore to iron by heating it 1 All mentions of fiscal years in this article refer to Indian fiscal years, in the presence of gas containing hydrogen and carbon monoxide. It which run from 1 April to 31 March. is also known as sponge iron. 30 R es erv e b a n k o f Aus t ra l i a
  • 3. In dia’s STEEL INDUSTRY Table 1: India – Crude Steel Production by Process 2009/10 Process Number of plants Production Production Megatonnes Share of total (%) Blast furnace/basic oxygen converter 13(a) 29 45 Electric arc furnace 39 16 24 Electric induction furnace 1 114 20 31 Total na 65 100 (a) Refers to the number of integrated steel plants with at least one blast furnace; some plants have multiple blast furnaces or a combination of both blast and electric furnaces Sources: Ministry of Steel (2011); authors’ calculations; company websites is still used as an input for most of the crude steel Graph 3 produced in India.3 India – Steel Trade Mt Exports Imports Mt Steel Demand and Trade 8 8 The production of finished steel in India is fairly Total evenly split between ‘long products’ (bars, rods, 6 6 wires, etc), which are typically used in construction, and ‘flat products’ (steel strips, plates, sheets, etc), 4 4 which are used in manufacturing. Construction and infrastructure are estimated to account for roughly 2 2 40 per cent of steel consumption, and manufacturing (including automobile production) for around 30 per 0 0 1996 2003 2010 1996 2003 2010 cent of consumption (Indicus Analytics 2009).  Semi-finished steel  Long products  Flat products  Tubes and pipes While domestic steel production has historically Sources: RBA; United Nations COMTRADE database; World Steel been sufficient to satisfy domestic demand, India has Association (worldsteel) recently become a net importer of steel, reflecting and tubes). Nonetheless, steel remains an important strong growth in Indian steel consumption source of export revenue, accounting for around (Graph 3). Imports of flat products have grown 4 per cent of the total value of India’s exports in 2010. particularly strongly in recent years, as manufacturing Most of India’s imports of steel come from other production grew strongly in the years leading up to large steel-producing countries. Imports from China the global financial crisis and has recovered strongly have grown strongly over the past five years or so, subsequently. At the same time, India’s steel exports with China now accounting for around one-third of have fallen (with the exception of shipments of pipes the value of India’s steel imports (Table 2). Sizeable steel imports from advanced economies suggest 3 The Ministry of Steel (2011) estimates that steel generated from ship recycling accounts for 1 to 2 per cent of total Indian steel demand. that there are certain types of products that are Furthermore, imports of steel scrap were equal to around 7 per cent either not produced in India or for which domestic of the production of finished steel in 2009/10. These figures suggest that scrap is used as an input for at least 8 per cent of the finished capacity is insufficient to meet demand; for example, steel produced in India, though the actual figure is likely to be higher Indian automakers import much of the high-grade once other sources of scrap, such as the recycling of durable goods, steel used for manufacturing outer panels of cars are taken into account. B u l l e tin | m a r c h Q ua r t e r 2012 31
  • 4. I ndi a’s STEEL INDUST RY Table 2: India’s Trade in Steel Per cent Exports Imports 2010 2000 2010 2000 Destination Share Destination Share Origin Share Origin Share of total(a) of total(a) of total(b) of total(b) United States 14.0 United States 28.3 China 29.8 Japan 15.8 United Arab South Saudi Arabia 9.4 Emirates 6.6 Korea 13.9 Russia 13.9 United Arab Emirates 7.9 Italy 5.8 Japan 11.7 Germany 9.4 South Belgium 7.7 Canada 5.6 Russia 5.3 Korea 8.9 Iran 7.0 Sri Lanka 4.2 Germany 4.9 Ukraine 7.2 (a) Share of the total value of India’s steel exports (b) Share of the total value of India’s steel imports Source: United Nations COMTRADE database (Mazumdar 2010). While the United States is the suggests that India’s steel consumption per capita largest destination for Indian steel exports, around will continue to grow, although the speed of this one-third of exports go to oil-producing countries increase will largely be determined by the rate at in the Middle East (Table 2). Detailed export data which India urbanises and industrialises (Graph 4). reveal that a large share of the shipments to the To cater for increases in domestic steel demand, the Middle East consists of steel pipes suitable for oil Indian steel industry has expansion plans which, and gas pipelines. India was the world’s largest if fully realised, would see capacity expand to over exporter of steel pipes for oil and gas pipelines in 275 million tonnes – a more than threefold increase 2010, and lower shipping costs (owing to the relative in capacity (Ministry of Steel 2011). As much as proximity of India to the Middle East) are reflected 30 million tonnes of additional capacity is expected in the region’s oil-producing countries sourcing the to come online during 2011/12 and 2012/13, majority of their imports of pipelines from India. which should see productive capacity increase by Consistent with India’s low income per capita, its roughly 40 per cent. The Indian authorities are also steel consumption per capita is currently very low optimistic about the medium-term prospects for relative to other large economies. In 2010, India’s steel production, with the Ministry of Steel (2011) consumption of steel (in crude steel equivalent expecting that India will overtake Japan and the terms) was 49 kg per capita, compared with 539 kg United States to become the world’s second-largest in Japan, 445 kg in China, 292 kg in the United States producer of crude steel by 2015/16. and a world average of around 220 kg (World Steel Association 2011). India’s low steel consumption Demand for Iron Ore and partly reflects its relatively limited urbanisation to Coking Coal date; in 2010, only 30 per cent of India’s population India’s demand for iron ore is currently met largely lived in urban areas (compared with an average of through extraction of high-quality hematite reserves 42 per cent across Asia) having risen from under located in the eastern states of Odisha, Jharkhand 20 per cent in 1970 (United Nations 2010). The and Chhattisgarh and the south-western states of pattern of development in other major economies 32 R es erv e b a n k o f Aus t ra l i a
  • 5. In dia’s STEEL INDUSTRY Graph 4 iron ore has grown (Graph 5). Part of this decline in Steel Consumption and Economic exports is attributable to the desire of policymakers Development* to make more use of India’s iron reserves for domestic steel production, which has been actively Japan** pursued through the use of export duties on iron ore. Steel consumption per capita – kg (1954–2011) 600 Through 2009 and 2010, export duties were raised China (1971–2011) from 0 to 5 per cent on fines, and from 5 to 15 per cent on lumps. Duties for both were raised to 20 per 400 cent in the 2011/12 budget, and then again to 30 per US cent at the beginning of 2012. These higher duties (1904–2011) 200 are reducing India’s contribution to the seaborne iron ore market and shifting demand for iron ore to other India (1971–2011) major exporters such as Australia and Brazil. 0 0 10 20 30 40 Real GDP per capita – US$’000 Graph 5 * 2011 prices using 2005 PPP exchange rates; 5-year moving averages ** Japanese fiscal years prior to 2009 China – Iron Ore Imports Sources: Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics; CEIC; Conference Mt % Board; IMF; Japan Iron and Steel Federation; Maddison (2009); India’s share of total Thomson Reuters; US Geological Survey; World Steel Association (worldsteel) 60 30 Karnataka and Goa. Extraction and crushing of the Total iron ore processed from these reserves leaves it in the form of lumps (56 per cent of iron ore), fines 40 20 (21 per cent), and a mix of lumps and fines (13 per Australia cent).4 Lumps are ready for use in steel production, 20 10 whereas fines are smaller in size and are required Brazil to go through an agglomeration process (typically India either sintering or pelletisation) before they can 0 0 2008 2012 2008 2012 be used in steel production.5 Additional domestic Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; RBA demand is met by the country’s deposits of lower grade magnetite reserves, extracted as fines (Indian Indian policymakers are also seeking to increase Bureau of Mines 2011a). domestic agglomeration of iron ore fines, which will further limit India’s contribution to the seaborne India is currently the world’s third-largest exporter of market. In 2009/10, 90 per cent of Indian iron iron ore behind Australia and Brazil. In recent years, ore exports were in the form of fines (equivalent however, India’s exports as a share of total production to over 70 per cent of total fines production). As have been declining (World Steel Association 2011). agglomeration procedures are capital intensive Shipments to China, which account for over 85 per to start up, the bulk of these facilities in India are cent of Indian exports of iron ore, have fallen over the operated by integrated steel plants. India’s iron past few years, even as China’s demand for imported ore industry has many participants (319 reported 4 The remaining 10 per cent are processed as black iron ore, other or mines in 2009/10), but is highly concentrated, with unknown grades. 18 per cent of mines producing 72 per cent of 5 Iron ore fines cannot be used directly in blast furnaces as they block the flow of air around the raw materials. Agglomeration is the process total output (Indian Bureau of Mines 2011a). The of converting fines into lumpier aggregates, either with or without National Steel Policy has recognised the need to additives such as limestone or dolomite. Sinters are made of coarser iron ore fines and are the preferred input in blast furnaces, whereas increase agglomeration capacity and encourage pellets are made from very fine iron ore. the formation of consortiums among smaller mines B u l l e tin | m a r c h Q ua r t e r 2012 33
  • 6. I ndi a’s STEEL INDUST RY in order to pool their fines and make greater use of Graph 6 this resource domestically (Indian Bureau of Mines Australia – Coking Coal Exports Mt Mt 2011b). Over the next 15 to 20 years, existing high-grade 50 50 Japan hematite reserves are expected to be depleted 40 40 (Indian Bureau of Mines 2011b). However, India expects to remain self-sufficient in its supply of iron 30 30 ore for the foreseeable future. Advances in drilling India technology are expected to allow access to more 20 20 reserves beyond the current attainable depth in iron South Korea 10 10 ore mining areas. Additionally, exploration in some China known hematite-bearing regions has not been 0 0 1999 2003 2007 2011 exhaustive; as this exploration continues, estimates Sources: ABS; RBA of hematite reserves are expected to increase. Furthermore, greater domestic consumption of fines Conclusion and the restriction of supply to the global market will Indian steel production has grown strongly in help to ensure a sufficient supply of local resources. recent decades and is likely to continue to expand By contrast, Indian coking coal reserves are quite as domestic producers increase their capacity to small and tend to be of low quality, needing to be meet anticipated demand. Given its relatively large blended with higher-grade imported coal for use in reserves of iron ore, India is likely to remain self- steel production. To meet rising demand from steel sufficient in its supply of iron ore for the foreseeable production, India has become an increasingly large future. In contrast, Indian steelmakers rely heavily on purchaser in the global coking coal market. India is imports for their coking coal needs. As Australia is now the third-largest importer of coking coal in the a major supplier of coking coal to India, growth in world (World Coal Association 2011). Since the early Indian steel production is likely to see these exports 2000s, Australia’s coking coal exports to India have from Australia expand further. R risen steadily, and India is now the second most important destination of these exports behind Japan References (Graph 6). Coal now comprises around one-third of Baker M and Cagliarini A (2010), ‘Economic Change in the value of Australian exports to India, with almost India’, RBA Bulletin, September, pp 19–24. all of coal exports made up of coking coal. Indian Bureau of Mines (2011a), ‘Indian Minerals India’s National Steel Policy has identified the need Yearbook 2010’. Available at <http://ibm.nic.in/imyb2010. to further develop non-coking coal methods of steel htm>. production, such as the use of electric arc furnaces Indian Bureau of Mines (2011b), ‘Iron & Steel – Vision (Ministry of Steel 2005). However, given existing blast 2020’. Available at <http://ibm.nic.in/vision2020.htm>. furnace production capacity, this technology is likely Indicus Analytics (2009), ‘Indian Steel Industry: Final to continue to play a role in the development of the Report Prepared for the Competition Commission of India’, local steel industry and drive further demand for January. Available at <http://www.cci.gov.in/images/ Australian coking coal in the future. media/completed/Indicussteel_20090420151842.pdf>. Joint Plant Committee (nd), ‘Steel Frame: Profile of the Indian Iron and Steel Industry’. Available at <http:// jpcindiansteel.nic.in/profile.asp>. 34 R es erv e b a n k o f Aus t ra l i a
  • 7. In dia’s STEEL INDUSTRY Maddison A (2009), ‘Statistics on World Population, GDP United Nations (United Nations Department of and Per Capita GDP, 1-2008 AD’. Available at <http://www. Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division) ggdc.net/MADDISON/Historical_Statistics/horizontal- (2010), World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision, file_02-2010.xls>. United Nations, New York. Mazumdar R (2010), ‘Emerging Hub for Automotive Steel’, World Coal Association (2011), ‘Coal & Steel Facts 2011’, www.economictimes.com, 28 May. Available at <http:// August. Available at <http://www.worldcoal.org/bin/pdf/ articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2010-05-28/ original_pdf_file/coal_and_steel_facts_2011(17_08_2011). news/27593564_1_nippon-steel-auto-steel-automotive- pdf>. steel>. World Steel Association (2011), Steel Statistical Ministry of Steel (Ministry of Steel, Government of Yearbook 2011, World Steel Association, Brussels, pp India) (2005), ‘National Steel Policy – 2005’, November. 24–25. Available at <http://www.worldsteel.org/dms/ Available at <http://steel.nic.in/nspolicy2005.pdf>. internetDocumentList/statistics-archive/yearbook-archive/ Steel-statistical-yearbook-2011/document/Steel%20 Ministry of Steel (2011), Annual Report 2010–11. statistical%20yearbook%202011.pdf>. Available at <http://steel.nic.in/Annual%20Report%20 (2010-11)/English/Annual%20Report%20(2010-11).pdf>. B u l l e tin | m a r c h Q ua r t e r 2012 35