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Growth Report Bangladesh - February 2013
1. www.BRACEPL.com
Bangladesh Growth Report 2013
Prepared by
Sajid Huq Amit : Director - Strategic Sales : sajid.huq@bracepl.com
Research support by
Saleh Chowdhury : Assistant Manager - Strategic Sales : saleh.chowdhury@bracepl.com
February 2013
2. www.BRACEPL.com
All cross-country data are obtained from the databases of development agencies including the World Bank and Asian
Development Bank unless otherwise mentioned. Data for domestic and external sectors of Bangladesh are primarily obtained
from the Bangladesh Bank database.
Estimates and projections herein are conducted by BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage Limited (hereafter “BESL”) officers and are
based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable.
Data on market size and growth rates have been obtained from sources we believe to be authoritative and almost in all cases,
cross-checked with secondary sources and theoretical analysis. Nevertheless, with regard to all numerical estimates contained
herein, we are not able to guarantee either to their accuracy or completeness.
This presentation is intended for those this is sent to via electronic, air or hand-delivered mail. No part of this material may,
without BESL’s prior written consent, be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) distributed to any
person that is not an employee, officer, director, or authorized agent of the recipient.
2
Disclaimer
3. www.BRACEPL.com
Glossary
ACU Asian Clearing Union
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian
Nations
BDT Bangladesh Taka
BERC Bangladesh Energy Regulatory
Commission
BPDB Bangladesh Power Development
Board
BSEC Bangladesh Securities Exchange
Commission (Note: SEC is more
frequently used)
DESCO Dhaka Electric Supply Company
DGEN DSE General Index
DSE Dhaka Stock Exchange
EU European Union
FDI Foreign Direct Investments
FX Foreign Exchange
GCC Gulf Cooperation Council
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GNI Gross National Income
IPP Independent Power Producers
JICA Japan International Cooperation
Agnecy
kWh Kilo Watt-Hour
mmcfd Million Cubic Feet per Day
MSCI Morgan Stanley Capital International
MT Million Tons
MW Mega Watt
MWh Mega Watt-Hour
NAFTA North American Free Trade
Agreement
NBR National Board of Revenue
OIC Organisation of Islamic Cooperation
OPEC Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries
PPP Purchase Power Parity
RMG Ready Made Garments
S&P Standard & Poor's
SAARC South Asian Association for Regional
Cooperation
SIPP Small Independent Power Producers
USD United States Dollar
YTD Year till Date
4. www.BRACEPL.com
Note to Investors
Greetings!
It is with great pleasure that we share with you our inaugural
Bangladesh Growth Report.
Bangladesh’s sustained ~6.0% growth since 2004 appeared to
have caught worldwide media attention not too long ago. Of
course, if you are reading this, you are likely to have been
ahead of the curve.
Growth, while not being an end in itself, has certainly
transformed the lives of tens of millions, lifting them out of
poverty, inspiring ambitions, empowering the middle-class,
and setting the stage for what appears to be even higher
growth. Growth, we believe, is a necessary condition for over-
arching development, if not sufficient.
The story of ready-made garments is rather unique and
deserves the attention it has attracted. However, a less-told
story that is increasingly significant is that of the Bangladeshi
consumer. As per latest income per capita estimates,
Bangladeshis earn US$1,940 per year.
Now, according to the S-curve of consumption (or product
adoption), that is not an arbitrary number, but one that
indicates an inflexion point after which, consumption increases
at an increasing rate.
Considering a middle-class base of ~60 million, a working-age
population of ~100 million, and 30 million more below the age
of 14, the growth dynamism that awaits us may catch a few by
surprise. Of course, demographic dividend in Bangladesh’s
case is one of many growth engines.
We believe, therefore, this is an opportune time to collate data,
analysis and estimates on economic growth; monetary, fiscal,
and FX policies; trade; migration; demography; consumption;
manufacturing; and equity market trends while acknowledging
the challenges that lie ahead and opportunities lurking
underneath. Infrastructural development or lack thereof
constitutes a significant challenge to and an opportunity for
higher growth. Effective planning to orchestrate investment
decisions and operations is essential. In lieu of it, the country’s
economic potential will be unrealized.
We hope that you will find this report useful and even
insightful, and welcome you to share any feedback or
question, in relation to or independent of your investment
priorities.
Thanking you,
Sajid Huq Amit
Feb 27, 2013
4
6. www.BRACEPL.com
Growth Dimensions
3.4 x
29.9 x
83.7 x
5.1 x
33.5 x
22 x
6.4 x
DSE MCAP Growth in ‘02-’12
DSE Turnover Growth in ’02-’12
Bangladesh GDP Growth in ’02-’12
Mobile Subscribers Growth in ‘02-’12
Motorcycle Sales Growth in ‘00-’10
Remittances Growth in ’02-’12
Garments Exports Growth in ’02-’12
7. www.BRACEPL.com
Bangladesh : A Blurb
7
Bangladesh is the eight largest country in the world
population-wise: 150.49 million as of 2011. At 130,170 sq.
km., it is about the size of Iowa.
Despite a low GNI/capita (PPP, current) of $1,940 the growth
fundamentals of the economy has received widespread
international attention, e.g., Goldman Sachs’ inclusion in “the
next eleven” or N-11 economies as well as JP Morgan’s
“Frontier Five.” Guardian has enlisted Bangladesh among the
economies that have the potential of overtaking the west by
2050.
Located between China and India, two of the largest and
fastest engines of global growth, not to mention nearness to
South-east Asia, Bangladesh offers unique diplomatic and
commercial opportunities.
The Bay of Bengal and the planned deep sea port in the
south-east; the extensive riverine network; a large and
youthful population, fertile land, and a 99% mobile network
coverage have set the stage for speedier flows of capital,
people, tradable products and services, and ideas.
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Growth Path : Beginnings
Bangladesh’s steady and in fact rising growth rate over a 25-
year horizon surpasses in various country clusters (as
defined by the World Bank).
Despite concerns regarding connectedness to US and
Eurozone markets via trade – the BD economy was resilient
through the 2008-09 financial crisis and 2011 Eurozone debt
crisis.
In 2010, GDP GR peaked at 6.7%, and in 2011, it was at
6.5%.
8
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Real GDP Growth (%) Low income Middle income World Bangladesh
For 2012, provisional estimates are in the 5.5-6.0% range,
notwithstanding a methodological revision expected to
indicate ~6.0% GR.
While exports have sustained, other pillars of growth have
been inward remittances, consumption, SME growth and
development, and agricultural self-sufficiency.
The outlook indicates more of the same plus increasing
manufacturing output, export diversification, and increased
connectivity internally and regionally via air, road, rail, and
maritime links.
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Comparative : Frontier Markets
9
3.2
4.2 3.7
2.2
5.9
3.3
4.6
4.9 5.4
5.9
5.3
4.4
6.3
6.6
6.2
5.7
6.7
-5
0
5
10
15
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Bangladesh Kenya Lao PDR Nigeria Pakistan
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Bangladesh Indonesia
Malaysia Thailand
Vietnam
Looking at specific high-growth economies in Africa, South
Asia and South East Asia that are grouped with Bangladesh
on account of similar investment risk profiles and comparable
income levels - Bangladesh’s economic output has enjoyed a
steadier and more resilient trajectory. Certain high-growth
countries have had higher “high’s” but also 300-500 bp
variations in two years or less.
Bangladesh’s economic stability fares well even in
comparison with the “Emerging Asia,” i.e., more mature high-
growth South East Asian countries such as Thailand,
Malaysia, and Indonesia, whose growth rates plunged
500-1000 bp in two years.
11. www.BRACEPL.com
Growth, Inflation & Monetary Aggregates
11
12.1
13.7
15.5
12.6
12.9
14.8
19.3
17.1 17.6
19.2
22.4
21.3
7.2 7.2
9.9
6.7 7.3
8.8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Broad Money
Growth
Nominal GDP
Growth
Average Annual
Inflation
3.8X 4.7X 5.9X 7.7X 8.4X 9.6X 12.4X 13.0X
39.8X
61.9X
109.0X
Thailand
Malaysia
Philippines
Kenya
Pakistan
SriLanka
Bangladesh
Indonesia
Nigeria
Vietnam
Ghana
M2 Growth 1995-2011
Central banks around the world try to keep M2 GR in line with
nominal GDP GR and an optimal inflation level. In Bangladesh,
Broad Money grew 12.4X in 1995-2011. In the same time period,
GDP on PPP basis grew ~3X from US$90.7bn to US$267.4bn.
The above growth multiples are line with other economies’ that
have enjoyed sustained growth and those in which the banking
sector growth had internal liquidity generation had a relatively
slower start.
In 2006-2012, bank deposits (excluding inter-bank) grew at an
average 19.4% per year. During the same period, total advances
(excluding inter-bank) grew by 20.0% on an average.
After a slowdown in 2007-08 on political impasse, M2
growth rate picked up in 2009. There was excess liquidity
in the money market, which eventually entered the stock
market, leading to 2010’s rally.
In 2011, the Bangladesh Bank (BB) turned a corner and
put in place a contractionary monetary policy. Since 2011,
repo and reverse repo rates have been hiked by 225bp.
Meanwhile, M2 GR which had peaked at 21.7% in Dec’10
fell to 13.7% in May’12, in line contractionary targets.
Other than mopping up the excess liquidity and correction
of asset prices consequently raised – BB’s monetary policy
has also aligned closely with stipulations of a US$1.0bn
Extended Credit Facility (ECF) loan that the IMF approved
for BoP support.
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Stipulations for disbursements of successive tranches of the loan,
included sustaining single-digit inflation and re-classification of
asset quality measurement guidelines as per best practices. In
line with inflation control, the ECF also stipulated curbing public
sector borrowing from banks to finance subsidies. The prevalent
fiscal policy of financing subsidies via bank borrowing was
discouraged, and rightly so, given it’s crowding out effect on
private sector credit was quite evident.
Subsidizing energy costs enabled lower pricing of
electricity. However, given limited revenue and absence of
a secondary market for treasuries – subsidy financing via
treasury sales to primary-dealer banks and NBFI’s had the
unintended consequence of raising bank rates. Increased
lending rates i.e., higher cost of capital economy-wide
naturally pushed up consumer prices.
In 2012, lending and deposit rates were higher than five-
year averages – peaking at 13.8% and 8.2%, respectively.
On time deposits, leading private commercial banks
(PCB’s) double-digit rates.
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12
Total Domestic Credit
Growth (YoY)
Pvt. Sector Credit Growth
(YoY)
Public Sector Credit Growth
(YoY)
Fiscal-Monetary Nexus
12.8
12.3
11.9
11.3 12.4
13.8
6.9 7.0 7.0
6.0
7.3
8.2
0
5
10
15
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Commercial Lending Rate
Bank Deposit Rate
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Trade & Exports
14
65.0%! 64.2%! 67.3%! 68.1%! 66.1%! 71.1%! 67.6%!
27.2%! 28.4%! 25.4%! 25.1%! 27.8%! 24.4%! 27.7%!
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Breakdown of Export by Commodity
RMG! Fish! Leather! Jute! Others!
In 2012, and 1H in particular. the ready-made garments (RMG)
“export power-house,” as Bangladesh was referred to by a recent
New York Times article, experienced a lagged slowdown on
reduced demand from the US and the EU. However, trade deficits
were lowered from 2011-levels thanks in part to the monetary
austerity program in place, one of the consequences of which was
a curbing of non-essential imports.
Exports grew 8.0% in 2012, which is respectable and also higher
than in countries with comparable export industries, e.g., Pakistan
and Vietnam. In fact, in 2012, Bangladesh became the second-
largest exporter of garments and textiles products after China.
Diversification of export destinations sustained growth rates in
2012, especially in 2H, during which which the newer destinations
contributed ~US$1.0bn of US$9.94bn exports. The US is,
however, likely to remain an attractive destination for Bangladesh
exports. India is also expected to become a larger export
destination.
To be sure, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, China,
Turkey, Australia, Mexico, Russia as well as several countries in
the MENA region are expected to become larger export markets
for Bangladesh. Another trend worth a mention is the steady
growth of high-value products (HVPs). Their share in the
garments export basket rose from 7-8% to 15-16% in 2012.
-1750
-750
250
1250
2250
3250
Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
Trade Balance in USD mn Export in USD mn (fob)
Import in USD mn (foB)
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Imports & Outlook
15
11.5% 12.8% 12.2% 12.0% 10.9% 10.2%
11.9%
68.1% 66.6% 65.6% 65.6% 70.0% 71.0% 64.5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Breakdown of Import by Commodity
Textile and Articles Capital Machinery
Petroleum and Products Food Grains
Others
The largest category in imports comprises miscellaneous products
including dairy, spices, oil and oil seeds, pulses, sugar, clinker,
chemical and pharmaceutical products, fertilizers, dying and
tanning materials, cotton, yarn, staple fibers, and iron and steel.
As for import markets - India, China, Vietnam, Turkey, Poland and
Egypt are expected to contribute significantly in the future., This is
in addition to the traditional raw material suppliers in the OIC
(Singapore, Malaysia and Kuwait for minerals, fuels, and oils;
Indonesia for animal and vegetable fat oils; Pakistan, India, China
and Uzbekistan for cotton (India also for vehicle and China for
machinery); Saudi Arabia for plastic articles and Korea for iron,
steel, and floating structures.
2,894.5
1,975.4
1,270.4
1,250.8
1,384.3
748.2
533.7
299.3
182.3
Regional Import 2012 Q2 (USD)
Other Asian Countries
OIC
Asian Clearing Union (ACU)
SAARC
ASEAN
OPEC
EU
NAFTA
Other European Countries
In FY 2012, Bangladesh spent US$6.17 billion on import of liquid fuels,
more than twice FY 2011 levels, primarily to run quick-rental power
plants set up to address interim electricity generation gaps.
However, monetary austerity, weak demand for exports in the EU and
US, not to mention bumper harvest of food grains, saw liquid fuel
imports decline in 2H 2012. New L/C opening for petroleum imports fell
22.4% in July-October 2012.
Monetary tightening also led to a decline in import of consumer goods,
industrial raw materials and capital machinery. In July-November 2012,
import GR was -6.9% compared to 21.6% in the same period in 2011.
16. www.BRACEPL.com
Remittance & Other inflows
16
The Bangladeshi expatriate population estimated at around eight
million remitted back US$14.2bn in 2012, marking a 16.5% YoY
GR. This was noteworthy given the high base remittance dollar
volumes had achieved in 2011, and surpassed man-power
exporting countries that had higher volumes until 2011.
Estimated at ~US$405.0bn in 2012, remittance to developing
countries are expected to grow ~7.9%, 10.1% and 10.7% in 2013,
‘14, and ‘15, respectively, reaching US$534.0bn. Even if
Bangladesh maintains average growth rates for developing
countries, it could reach US$19.6bn in 2015.
564
391 376
276
800
743
793
650
961
913
768
995
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Foreign direct investment (FDI) picked up 2009-
onwards and in 2012, reached US$909mn. In
2005-08 and 2001-04, average FDI-levels were US
$747.0mn and US$402.0mn, respectively.
Attracting FDI is particularly important for a growing
economy like Bangladesh as it involves transfer of
technical and managerial knowledge.
However, other frontier economies like Vietnam and
Cambodia have still higher average FDI levels both in
absolute dollar volume as well as share of GDP (~5%
for the two countries).
The year 2012 also saw foreign-currency term loans
of US$1.49bn, about 82% higher YoY and 393%
higher than in 2010.
1,089
1,475 1,706 1,882
3,062
3,848
4,802
5,978
7,915
9,689
10,987
11,650
12,843
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1993-94 1996-97 1999-00 2002-03 2005-06 2008-09 2011-12
No. of persons left for abroad
Remittances (Million US. $)
FDI (US$mn)
17. www.BRACEPL.com
FX Reserves & Exchange Rate
17
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
0
5
10
15
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
Reserve (USD bn) BDT-USD (End of Period)
In January 2013, the Bangladesh Bank’s foreign
exchange reserve surpassed the US$13bn threshold
for the first time. Strong remittance inflow, negative
import growth, quicker collection of export proceeds,
FDI growth, and other foreign currency inflows were
the primary drivers.
As of January 08, foreign exchange reserves stood at
US$13.1bn, up from US$9.6bn in December 2011.
Current reserves are equivalent tofour-month import
bill coverage.
On escalating FX reserves, the dollar rate, which had
been stable in March-November 2012 around the
BDT 81.0-82.0 range, dropped below the BDT 80.0
level in December. BDT appreciated thereafter.
After the free fall of 2011, when BDT depreciated
12.8% against the dollar, the 2.6% appreciation since
December is commendable, and is presently at a
level where it retains export competitiveness without
importing inflation into the economy.
19. www.BRACEPL.com
Bangladesh : The Next Emerging Consumer Market
19
15,650
8,360
5,520
4,500
4,140
3,250
2,870
2,580
2,290
1,940
1,810
1,710
Malaysia
Thailand
Sri Lanka
Indonesia
Philippines
Vietnam
Pakistan
Lao PDR
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Ghana
Kenya
GNIperCapitain2011
(PPPCurrentUSD)
Bangladesh’s per capita income, although higher than Kenya’s
and closer to Nigeria’s, is still much lower than in Lao PDR,
Thailand and less than 20% of Malaysia’s per capita income.
However, at US$1,940, Bangladesh’s per capita on the verge
of the US$2,000-2,500 inflexion range on the S-curve of
consumption.
Experience from South Asian, South East Asian and African
countries with similar economic fundamentals indicates that
GDP/GNI per capita accelerate around the time it reaches US
$2,000.
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bangladesh Ghana
Indonesia Kenya
Lao P.D.R. Malaysia
Nigeria Pakistan
Philippines Sri Lanka
Thailand Vietnam
US$2,000 income/capita line
Even modest assumptions on GR indicate Bangladesh is
about the enter a high-growth threshold for consumption.
The consumer market in the offing is significant when one
realizes that 57% if the population or about 92.0 million are
under 25 years.
20. www.BRACEPL.com
Discretionary Spend : Mobile Phones & Durables
20
Mobile subscription doubled in the past five years. Drivers
for subscription growth have been increasing per capita
income, migration to cities and overseas, delays in availing
land line connections, and so on.
Bangladesh at present has ~62% mobile penetration, which
is certainly a larger market than its frontier market peers
such as Ghana, Kenya, Lao PDR, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sri
Lanka and Vietnam. However, penetration is higher for the
other frontier markets, especially for Ghana at 85%, Sri
Lanka 87%, Lao PDR at 87% and Vietnam XYZ%. Only
Nigeria and Pakistan have similar levels of penetration. 798,571
1,000,000
100,000
55,000
- 400,000 800,000 1,200,000
Electronic Goods Sales (Units)
2009
2010
2011
Microwaves
Air Conditioners
Televisions
Refrigerators
45
24
90
62
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mobile Phone Subscribers (mn) Mobile Penetration (%)
Mobile Phones, 2008-12
The market for discretionary consumer products in
Bangladesh is approximately ~95.000 for air conditioners,
50,000 for microwaves, about 900,000-1.0mn for televisions,
and ~800,000 for refrigerators. Refrigerator sales are
increasing at ~25% a year, television sales at 10-12% a year,
while air conditioners and microwave consumption growth
rates are still in high single-digits.
Growth rates for refrigerators and televisions for India and
China were similar in the 1990s, ie the first decade of high
discretionary spending, following which consumer spend
increased further. The case for Bangladesh ought to be
similar in the coming decade.
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Bikes, Cars, and Internet Penetration
21
To continue on consumer discretionary spend, there is a
136 percent duty on refrigerators and 189 percent on
imported air-conditioners. It makes sense therefore to
buy locally-manufactured refrigerators. This is borne out
by growing sales of refrigerators assembled or
manufactured by local names.
199,000
303,000
2000
2010
Number of Tourists
The travel and tourism sector raked in BDT182.5 billion,
about 2.2. percent of the gross domestic product (GDP)
in 2011. The sectors contribution to overall GDP is
forecasted to rise by 7.3% in 2012 and on an average
6.1% annually until 2022, according to the WTCC study.
The Lonely Planet ranked Bangladesh number one in
2011 in its value-for-money tourist destination rankings.
Data: World Travel Tourism Council (WTTC)
Meanwhile, motor cycle sales increased ~8x in
2000-2013. As of 2012, motor cycle sales reached
290,000. Local manufacturers are increasingly
competitive and gaining market share on their importer
counterparts. Their quality continues to improve as well
as their capacity and are eventually expected to
produce sufficient surplus to enable export.
Growth of the consumer sector is also evident from the
rise in internet users and penetration of the internet
especially, recent growth rates. Between 2010 and
2011, internet penetration grew 8.7X, albeit from a low
base, according to the International Telecommunication
Union (ITU).
13,176
290,000
2006
2012
Motorcycle Sales
0%
4%
8%
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
2000 2011
Internet Users and Penetration
Internet Users
Internet Penetration
(% of Population)
22. www.BRACEPL.com
Manufacturing Pathways
At current prices, Bangladesh’s annual imported car market is
around 30,000 units. Imported cars constitute ~80% of the
small and medium motor vehicle market of which Toyota has
69% share.
The imported car market has altered however as duties have
escalated to 250% for 1600-2000 cc vehicles, 350% for
2750-4000 cc, and 821% for 4000 cc or larger. Meanwhile,
equity-loan ratio on car loans have risen ~6-8 times. With a
shrinking of the imported car market, opportunity is rife for low-
and medium-priced car manufacturers.
Automobile manufacturers entering the Bangladesh market
estimate an annual demand six to seven times larger for
locally manufactured cars. South Korean Tagaz and Indian
TATA are the other significant foreign players looking to enter
the lower-priced automobile segment.
Clearly, as borne by price differentials in refrigerator,
television, motor cycle and automobile markets between
imports and local manufactured products - consumerism is
driving an expansion of the manufacturing industry.
In fact, in the previous 50 years, countries that have sustained
periods of consistent 7 percent or higher growth over a horizon
of 25 years or longer, manufacturing and services were
dominant contributors. Of course, the agriculture sector does
not diminish in absolute policy importance given the scope for
increasing yields and high global food prices.
Agricultural yield will grow with dissemination among poor
farmers without access to information knowledge on optimal crop
rotation, usage of higher-yield varieties and hybrids, limited
experimentation with pesticides, increased urea-usage, and
education on weather and soil-quality-dependent farming.
Increasing agricultural yield will accelerate the growth of the
country’s industrial sector by freeing up workers for the factories.
Bangladesh has the sixth largest work force in the world after
Brazil, Indonesia, US, India and China. On top of gains in
employment generation for an estimated workforce of around
~80.0mn – Bangladesh also enjoys one of the most favorable
demographic dividends globally (Vietnam comes close) with
65.3% population bin the 15-64 age group and another 30.0%
below.
22
30.0 65.3Bangladesh
Ghana
Kenya
Lao PDR
Least developed
Low income
Middle income
Nigeria
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
World
Population ages
0-14 (% of total)
Population ages
15-64 (% of
total)
Population ages
above 64 (% of
total)
23. www.BRACEPL.com
Emerging Manufacturing Sectors
Bangladesh minimum wages are the lowest in Asia,
30-100% lower than in Vietnam, Sri Lanka and India,
according to the ILO. While wages have recently and
justifiably increased, the existing (and significant)
comparative differential has enabled development of labor-
intensive sectors, e.g., apparel, textiles, leather, footwear,
and up-and-coming ones such as furniture, toys, bi-cycles,
sports equipment, and ship building.
An example of how domestic manufacturing to meet a
growing consumer segment − has begun to make small
inroads in exports − is the furniture segment. The local
market is ~US$1.38bn with around 19% sales growth.
Meanwhile, export volume, albeit from a low base, has
picked up from US$27mn in FY 2012 to around US$40.0 in
FY 2013.
In addition to demand from overseas buyers, significant
market growth is expected on forward-linkage potential with
the domestic ship-building industry. A small ocean-going
vessel made in Bangladesh typically requires furniture of
~US$100,000, which are presently imported. Since
Bangladeshi ship-builders are increasingly competitive in
the global market for small- and medium-sized vessels,
labor-cost arbitrage is expected to benefit both ship building
and the furniture manufacture industries.
23
10
40
2010
2011
Shipbuilding Industry Sales (US$ million)
Labor-cost competitiveness is rather high for Bangladesh even
in comparison other low-cost manufacturers, e.g., Pakistan. As
of 2011, according to the World Bank, Bangladesh industry-
wide net profit margins averaged ~16% compared to 3% in
Pakistan.
Since this sector is likely to incur future costs from
environmental regulations, taxation, etc., Bangladesh’s cost-
advantage is expected to enable market share growth in the
~US$200bn global industry. Single-digit percentage share of
the global industry entails sizeable economic benefits.
In the coming years and decades, other sectors are likely to
catch policy-makers’ attention for their labor-cost
competitiveness. It is important, however, that sectors are not
identified only using a basic model of labor-cost arbitrage, but
determined in consideration of other factors as well, e.g.,
access to raw materials, leadership talent, low-cost energy,
reliable infrastructure, favorable regulation, trade policies, and
of course diplomatic imperatives.
25. www.BRACEPL.com
Energy Power
In 2012, peak electricity demand was 7,518MW/day, up from
6,500MW/day in 2011, up by 16%. Meanwhile, peak supply
was 6,350MW/day and total electricity generation grew by
12% to stand at ~35,000GWh (CAGR ~9.0% in 2001-2011).
The demand-supply gap came down to ~2,000MW to
~1,2000MW in 2012, reflecting reduced load-shedding.
25
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Per Capita Electricity Consumption (kWh)
Low income
Middle income
Bangladesh
Ghana
Electricity consumption in Bangladesh is one of the lowest
regionally and globally, as evident from the accompanying line
chart. Scarcity of power is possibly the most significant
infrastructural constraint inhibiting growth and development,
and unlocking possible double-digit growth.
However electricity prices are among the least expensive
regionally at US¢ 4.16-14.75/kWh for retail and US¢ 5.88/kWh
for bulk users as of Sep ’12 (Sri Lanka has highest retail tariff
at US¢ 28.35/kWh). These are prices post-adjustment to lower
subsidies on energy. The Bangladeshi Energy Regulatory
Commission (BERC) raised tariffs by 38.24% and 63.77%
between 4Q 2011 and 3Q 2012. Further upward price
revisions are expected: by 9% in 2013 and 30% in 2014.
8.6
12.2
18.6
12.4
11.512.1
11.1
9.5 9.4
12.7
0.2 0.1
0.9
5.4
6.9
11.2
12
6.6
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Load-shedding (as % of peak generation)
However, the reduction in power generation has been
driven by quick-rental power plants which require expensive
liquid fuels. A more cost-optimized energy mix, to take the
example of JICA’s proposed roadmap for 2030, “The Power
System Master Plan (2010).” recommends that 50%
generation be coal-based. As of 2012, coal-generated
power contributed ~2% of total power generated.
26. www.BRACEPL.com
Sea Ports Maritime Transportation
26
With regard to maritime transport, Bangladesh’s sea ports are
perhaps the most crucial to growth-impact. The main
Chittagong port in the south handles about 80% of the
country’s imports and exports. It’s situated on the Karnaphuli,
is close to the Bay of Bengal, and last year, handled more
than US$47mn tons of cargo and containers of 1.4 million
TEU’s and given growth outlook, requires urgent capacity
expansion.
The Chittagong port is particular commercial significance to
the garments industry. Positive changes thus far include
allowing private berth operators to handle containers and
cargo. Turn-around-time for ships has lessened to two-and-a-
half days but still short of global benchmarks.
The deep sea port in south Chittagong is however the biggest
game-changer in the horizon which will enable manifold
increase in connectivity between countries east and west of
Bangladesh as well as trade routes to and from land-locked
Nepal and Bhutan. China, India, Myanmar, the UAE, and of
course, Nepal and Bhutan have shown interest in developing
the Chittagong port. Down the road, there will be competition
in the maritime transit business for Bangladesh; hence timely
action is paramount.
The Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has begun
coal and gas-fired base-load power plant projects, but risks of
implementation time-overrun and bureaucratic delays are
significant. Existing gas reserves (~2,250 mmcfd against demand
of ~2,700mmcfd) are under pressure for lack of new discoveries.
A possible silver lining may lie in gas exploration in the Bay of
Bengal, which, following an ITLOS verdict, allowed Bangladesh
access to four deep-water gas blocks and partial rights over three
blocks. Bidding and subsequent exploration by international oil
companies (IOC’s) are expected this year.
Another positive development is the approval by ECNEC,
Bangladesh’s highest policy-making institution, for a cross-border
US$196.0mn power transmission project. A US$252.5mn power
generation project dedicated for greater Chittagong is also
approved, of which US$172.0mn will be provided by Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait, the UAE, and OPEC. There are a few other power projects
in the pipeline.
Energy issues notwithstanding, there is also considerable
investments to be made to develop Bangladesh’s roads, railways,
bridge networks, airports, and waterways. The investment case for
roads, railways and bridges is of course quite patent for a
developing country, but in Bangladesh’s case, waterways and
aviation present relatively compelling cases as well, especially the
former and in the near-term.
27. www.BRACEPL.com
Aviation, Roads, Railways Bridges
Mongla is the second sea port in Bangladesh. It has three
container years of 35,752 sq. meters, and can
accommodate 2,180 TUES containers in a single high; five
transit sheds and two warehouses can store 33,258 m.t.
cargo. To develop Mongla, projects worth US$70.0mn for
equipment procurement and easier navigation of sea-going
vessels are in the pipeline.
Dredging will need to take place at a reasonably large scale
to deepen and widen riverine channels, which will
significantly reduce transportation time of goods and
services and reduce land traffic congestion. A developed
riverine transportation system will also enable renewable
energy generation from hydroelectricity. For purposes of
policy formulation, sophisticated synergies are possible
between policy programs aimed at sea port development
and riverine transportation.
To continue on transportation modes relatively
unconventional to most frontier emerging economies at
Bangladesh’s stage of growth – aviation also has
considerable potential for growth and hence rationale for
policy prioritization. The most obvious driver is
transportation of RMG exports and the market, several large
RMG manufacturers. Given the scale, growth rate, and
ambitions of Bangladesh’s garments industry, international
cargo flights ought to be a logical next step to lowering
costs for the industry and enhancing its competitiveness.
.
Another substantial market for aviation’s growth is the large
Bangladeshi expatriate population of mostly migrant workers, but
several NRB’s naturalized in countries such as the UK, US, Italy,
and so on, in total estimated at ~8.5 mn. Even by global standards,
this implies a a fairly large market for international passenger
flights. But the obvious bottle-necks to the sector’s growth are
technological know-how at various parts of the sector value chain
including policy design (e.g., pricing) as well as the scale of
investments to generate meaningful returns. Aviation’s sustained
growth may necessitate transfer of technical and operational
knowledge at levels comparable to those witnessed in the early-
stage Bangladesh telecommunications sector.
To return to most conventional infrastructure-growth priorities of
developing nations, i.e., the building of roads, railways and bridges,
the larger projects in the pipeline are as follows (dates of
completion inexact):
- ~US$3.75bn multi-purpose bridge about 6.15 km-long to connect
the south and south-east with the impoverished south-west (lower
initial estimates; may increase further with time)
- US$2.75bn Dhaka Mass Rapid Transit Development (DMRTD)
project for a 2.0 km-long metro-rail, of which JICA has pledged
85% funding
- US$2.0bn second Padma bridge to connect Dhaka with the west
and south-west as well as the main land port with Mongla port
- US$1.24bn elevated expressway about 26.0 km-long to connect
the primary airport, Shah Jalal International Airport, to the Dhaka-
Chittagong Highway
- US$400mn four-lane highway for Dhaka-Chittagong traffic
27
28. www.BRACEPL.com
Regional Connectivity : Sharing Costs Spoils
However, building ports, river networks, expressways, an
widening roads into multiple-lanes are very expensive
investments. The size of total investment capital required for
the list of large projects is close to US$10.0bn, which does
not include the many roads that need to be laid, unpaved
paths paved, smaller bridges to be built – to say nothing of
deep sea port development, investments in Chittagong and
Mongla ports, riverine network development, and aviation
industry development. The railway system also requires a
sizeable overhaul. The size of total investments required may
run into ~US$40-60.0 bn.
This is clearly untenable without foreign direct investment
and other shared financing programs with regional and
distant sovereigns that have expressed interest. Since the
commercial gains from greater connectivity are inevitably
shared, investments ought to be. Large scale commercially-
driven diplomacy is clearly the required ingredient to
actualize Bangladesh’s requisite transportation network
development.
A discernable benefits of the above is an inevitable
employment boom that results in construction and services
sectors from investing in infrastructure. The second and more
lasting benefit is increased connectivity between South Asian
countries, since trade between the neighbors are on the rise
and expected to accelerate. The travel time however
between capital cities in South Asia are presently 100-200%
higher. Optimizing travel time entails considerably higher
trade volumes for Bangladesh and its neighbors.
28
In fact, interest in developing Bangladesh’s transportation
system and various modes thereof involve business cases
for countries outside South Asia, and other than China, UAE,
and Japan, all of whom have shown actionable interest.
There is also the “Emerging Asia,” as represented by South
East Asia, Indochina, Korea, and even the CIS.
For instance, there is an organization known as BCIM
(Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar) that aims to
increase connectivity across the four countries which
constitutes around 40% of the world’s population. Very
recently, they organized the first four-nation joint-road survey
to accurately map road connectivity.
There is yet another group called The Bay of Bengal Initiative
for Multi-sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation
(BIMSTEC) formed in 1997 in Bangkok and includes
Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Bhutan
and Nepal. This consortium is intended to promote trade,
investment and connectivity between South and South East
Nations. Dhaka happens to be BIMSTEC’s head-quarters.
The commercial and diplomatic opportunities for Bangladesh
as a result of its advantageous geographic location can
facilitate growth of various Bangladeshi service sectors. As
demonstrated by Singapore, the growth-impact of investing
in logistics and becoming a trading hub, can ensure
continued prosperity, especially given Bangladesh’s other
growth fundamentals.
29. www.BRACEPL.com
The Internet of Things
Internet penetration should also drive an increase in new
business activity. Particularly in a country like Bangladesh, the
Internet can help make up for shortages in other forms of
infrastructure, such as roads, by enabling people to transact
across large distances.
For starters, internet-based business can contribute to
agriculture. With small household farms in rural areas
dominating production, there is great scope to increase value
added using the internet. It can be a useful tool with which to
disseminate information on planting times, methods, use of
fertilizers, etc.
In Bangladesh, where urban centers are inhabited by 30% of
the population - the bank sector’s physical penetration is
limited by the country’s terrain, lack of road networks, energy
supply gaps and infrastructure bottle-necks.
Despite such challenges, banks have built up impressive
branch networks. The next mile for financial inclusion of the
unbanked hinges on mobile banking, which in turn requires a
cheapening of internet access as well as affordable 3G-
enabled mobile devices. The auction for 3G licenses is
expected to take place around mid-2013.
29
However, 3G will not immediately translate to increased
internet penetration because of licensing and CAPEX costs
involved for mobile operators (latter due to significant
network swap costs for 3G).
In the longer run, internet-based business are expected to
contribute significantly to the economy via sectors such as
agriculture, health, education, commerce, retail and a variety
of service-oriented sectors.
31. www.BRACEPL.com
DSE : Upside despite Macro-Financial Stability
31
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Jun-04 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12
Dhaka Stock Exchange MCAP and Liquidity
Total Volume (thousands)
Total Turnover in USD (thousands)
Total Market Cap. in USD (mn)
0
5,000
10,000
Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12
DSE General Index
After a brief impasse in economic and trading activities in
2007-8, pent-up liquidity entered the stock market via margin
loans and re-purposed bank debt, fueling record retail and
domestic institutional investor participation. In 2010 alone,
DGEN appreciated ~94%. In a densely-inhabited capital city
with scarce investible asset classes and rather early-stage
financial-literacy levels (among investors as well as licensed
intermediaries), speculation became rife which ultimately drove
DGEN’s relentless rally.
The bull market turned a corner in Dec 2010 as BB raised bank
cash-reserve ratios. A multi-phase correction set in, initially
quicker but slowing gradually, largely on investor panic,
downsizing of bank portfolios and drying up of trade thereof.
Retail investor confidence waned, as did dollar values of
average daily turnover. Regulatory changes turned a corner for
the better in 2012 after a phase of policy trial-and-error in 2011.
A series of policy initiatives were put in place aimed at curbing
manipulation and volatility risks; simultaneously strengthening
market fundamentals; in part on prescriptions from International
Financial Institutions.
The boldest policy initiative was setting in motion the de-
mutualization of the bourse. So far we understand, this involves an
overhaul of the bourses’ ownership structure – towards greater
representation of independent owners than stock-brokers; revenue
model changes; and overall, improved accountability and
governance. Thereafter, surveillance software was launched to
detect and deter fraud and manipulation. Regulators also pushed
through a new free-float adjusted market-capitalization-weighted
index.
In sum, the country’s primary bourse, the DSE has become a safer
market in which to invest. More importantly, it has become an
attractively valued market uncorrelated to macroeconomic results
or outlook; which is a good thing because the market would not be
what it is to value investors now, had it priced in economic
performance past or expected.
32. www.BRACEPL.com
Market Fundamentals: MCAP Growth
32
24.2
18.4
1.4
4.8
22.5
2.0
32.8
30.3
21.0
16.1
15.6
7.9
Sri Lanka
Kenya
Bangladesh
Nigeria
Pakistan
Ghana
Total Market Capitalization (% of GDP)
2011
1993
In 19 years, DGEN’s Market Capitalization to GDP ratio
increased 15x – surpassing MCAP growth rates of comparable
frontier markets. Although it is true that DGEN MCAP probably
had a far lower base in 1993 than its frontier market
counterparts, its MCAP GR is still indicative of the underlying
domestic investor interest in the stock market even at a
relatively early stage of its history.
In fact, the external drivers of the staggering rally of a hitherto
little-known market in 2009-10 are also reasons for DSE’s
double-digit multiple growth rate in market cap.
First, for the median retail investor, there is a dearth of
investable asset categories. Real estate is usually expensive.
In the more upscale parts of the capital city, real estate prices
are comparable to Mumbai, which is occasionally higher than
those in developed market capital cities. Prohibitively
expensive real estate, an under-developed fixed-income
market, and until recently, single-digit returns on deposits –
have fueled retail investor interest in the stock market through
time.
Dhaka’s high population density also lends to rapid
information flows. The dynamics are just right for high
multiplier effects of both positive and negative feedback on
investable securities. Lastly, high M2 growth rate also
Indicates high return-potential and high liquidity. Overall
market size is positively correlated with the ability to mobilize
capital and diversify risks across the economy.
33. www.BRACEPL.com
Market Fundamentals: Liquidity Ratios
33
92.6
1993 2002 2011
Total Turnover to Market Cap Ratio (%)
Least developed
countries
Low income
Middle income
World
Bangladesh
Liquid markets are naturally preferred because they are likelier
to have lower bid-ask spreads, enable more efficient price
discovery and are less prone to long-term bubbles and
corrections.
Liquidity also significantly predicts future returns. Moreover, a
lack of liquidity causes asset markets to dry up or render trades
difficult to execute when prices are falling, particularly when an
investor might want to exit.
1993 1999 2005 2011
Total Turnover to GDP Ratio (%)
Bangladesh Ghana
Kenya Nigeria
Sri LankaDespite Bangladesh’s equity markets’ relatively early stage of
development, dollar volume of turnover levels (as evident from
the adjacent pictorial) are generally higher than dollar volume
trends for the least developed, low-income and middle-income
country groups.
Turnover to Market Cap and Turnover to GDP are both useful
indicators of liquidity as the first represents the liquidity of the
market and the second of both the market and wider economy.
When liquidity risks of investing in markets are dispersed
systemically – it is easier to manage portfolio risks as long as an
economy’s financial services sector is well-governed and
regulated, as is turning out to be the case with Bangladesh’s
banking sector in light of asset quality and risk capital
adjustments underway.
34. www.BRACEPL.com
Indicators of an Under-valued Market?
34
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Monthly Imports and Stock Turnover
Stock Market Turnover (BDT bn) Import (USD mn)
17.8x
0x
5x
10x
15x
20x
25x
30x
35x
2003 2006 2009 2012
Market P/E
Market P/E Market P/E (Avg. 2003-2012)
Despite debates about its utility for valuation of an entire market –
historical P/E is a more useful indicator of an undervalued market than
an overvalued market. By this metric, DSE is under-valued given
current single-digit P/E ratios.
The next chart (top right-hand side) indicates the inverse relationship
between a high bank deposit rate and lower fund flows to the stock
market, which was clearly the case in 2011-12 as monetary tightening,
and provision growth led to higher deposit rates for fund mobilization.
Imports are a proxy for industrial production index. Clearly a leading
indicator for turnover, the widened gap in 2011-12 indicates the growth
in fuel imports viz-a-viz non-fuel imports, since the former’s effect on
the market is not discernible yet. However, an uptick in overall imports
in 2H 2012 bodes well for the market, as does the de-growth in
deposits after June 2012.
(100)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Monthly Deposits Flow and Stock Turnover
Change in Deposits (BDT bn)
Stock Market Turnover (BDT
bn)
36. www.BRACEPL.com
Tobacco Footwear
The Tobacco industry in Bangladesh has an annual market size
of ~135 billion. Tobacco spend/capita is BDT844/US$10.55 and
consumption 2.5 sticks/person per year. Market penetration in
Bangladesh is around 40%. Tobacco sales consist of 52%
filtered cigarettes and 48% unfiltered varieties (local term: bidi).
Bidi costs 1/6 the price of a low-end cigarette.
British American Tobacco (BATBC) is the only listed tobacco
manufacturer with about 99% market share in the high-end.
BATBC’s shareholding structure is as follows: 73% by the BAT
group; 11% by the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh
(majority government-owned NBFI); and 16% free-float. Other
players in the tobacco industry are domestic conglomerates of
significant size: Dhaka Tobacco (under Akij Group) and Abul
Khair Tobacco.
BATBC’s low-segment market share increased from 20% in
2006 to 60% in 2010. Net profits grew at double-digit rates in
2006-11. Excises are high and constitute 11% of the
government’s tax revenue. Future profitability expected to be
driven by consumers upgrading to higher segments. Segments
are classified as follows: high-end; medium end; low-medium;
and low-end. BATBC has significant cash balance with minimal
leverage.
Footwear industry generates annual sales of BDT 18.0bn or US
$225.0mn. Footwear consumption is 0.8 pairs per capita per year.
Bata Shoe and Apex Adelchi are the only large players in an
otherwise fragmented industry. Bata has the largest market share
of ~20% and Apex ~5-7%. Bata has two manufacturing plants in
Tongi and Dhamrai with production capacity of 110,000 pairs/day.
Apex has a production capacity of 15,000 pairs/day for export and
another 5000/day for domestic sales.
In Bata’s case, domestic sales contribute ~91% to revenue.
Meanwhile, Apex is export-oriented with ~80.0% revenue coming
from exports. Apex, however, plans to generate 40.0% from
domestic sales by 2015.
The footwear market is poised to surpass historical growth rates
as churn increases with higher disposable income of the
population. This bodes well for Apex’s re-purposing of export-
quality footwear for domestic consumption while Bata should
continue to do well with sustained focus on design and brand
building.
New entrants are also establishing operations encouraged by
industry’s growth prospects. Pou Hung Industrial (Bangladesh)
Limited owned by Pou Chen Group has set up a US$62.0mn
factory in the Karnaphuli Export Processing Zone (EPZ). Korea-
based giant Youngone group has also set up a US$110mn shoe
factory in the same EPZ with plans to increase their investment in
the coming years.
36
37. www.BRACEPL.com
Personal Care Pharmaceuticals
Marico Bangladesh Limited is the largest listed company in the
consumer and household products space. They have a “basket of
oils.” Parachute, their flagship hair oil brand, has 50% market
share of a total annual sales of a 100 million. Per capita
consumption of hair oil is 250 ml/year.
Marico has the ability to pass on a price increases, often by
packing lower volumes per unit of product sold. They are efficient
at building brands and developing distribution networks. Their
niche is the grooming, health and wellness space within the
consumer products space. Parachute, for example, is made of
100% herbal extracts whereas most of their competitors’ oils are
blended. Parachute coconut oil is sold in India, Sri Lanka, and
Indonesia.
Keya Cosmetics Limited is a key player in the cosmetics and
consumer products space. Its products include soap, shaving
cream, toothpaste, with their flagship brand, Keya Beauty Soap, is
one of the market leaders domestically. Keya Beauty Soap is also
exported to India, Bhutan and the Middle East. In 2007-2011,
Keya’s sales doubled, reaching US$30.0mn with increasing
operating margins (CAGR 28% in the said horizon).
Despite backward linkage via acquisition of Keya Soap Chemicals
in 2010, raw materials account for 30% of costs, while exports are
7.0% of revenue. In April 2012, Keya raised US$18.5mn through a
rights issue, to lower debt service obligations, which, until 2011,
constituted 46% of assets. Keya is a relatively liquid stock, among
the 20 most-traded of 2012 with an average daily turnover of US
$0.78mn. Keya has a market cap of US$60.0mn and 66% free
float.
Pharmaceuticals is one of the fastest growing and most
technologically-developed sectors in Bangladesh. The retail market
grew at 17.2% annually in 2007-11, reaching US$1.0bn in 2011. Of
drugs sold, generic to branded ratio is 85 to 15. Increasing life
expectancy, disposable income, information flow via mobile
connectivity and hospital sector penetration are growth drivers for the
pharmaceuticals industry. As of 2011, average pharmaceutical spend
was about 3.4% of GDP/capita. Pharmaceutical exports constitute a
small share of the sector’s business although it has increased from US
$3.7mn in 2001 to US$50.4mn in 2011.
Square Pharmaceuticals is the largest pharmaceuticals company with
a total revenue of BDT17.0bn and market share of 19.2% in 2010-11.
Their nearest competitors are Incepta Pharmaceuticals and Beximco
Pharmaceuticals with market shares of 9.1% and 8.6% respectively.
Leading players enjoy elastic demand and can pass through
incremental costs on FX and inflation to consumers. Beximco Pharma
sells its drugs to Southeast Asian and African countries and has
recently entered the highly-regulated EU market to sell ophthalmic
products. Renata, erstwhile Pfizer Bangladesh, and another leading
pharmaceutical player, exports to Sri Lanka.
The WTO’s agreement on trade-related aspects of intellectual property
rights (TRIPS) expires in 2016. Consequently, the 150-odd drugs
presently sold in the market without paying royalties may become
expensive. The medical profession and health care industry is then
likely to resort to a rationalizing of prescription trends. Older off-patent
drugs may be brought back, and in rare cases, large players will
sustain presence in export markets by sourcing domestically-produced
API. There is however, a possibility of TRIPS being extended, so as to
enable low-income countries like Bangladesh export of affordable
drugs to other low-income destinations in Africa.
37
38. www.BRACEPL.com
Telecommunications
The Bangladesh telecom industry has six operators in a highly
competitive environment. Mobile subscriber penetration is at present
~57-58%. Pre-paid customers are 90% of the market and sector
ARPU is around US$2.0. New customers, outside of urban zones,
generate lower ARPUs. Drivers of industry growth will be increasing
dispensable income, spread of wealth, availability of inexpensive
mobile phones, and so forth.
Grameenphone (GP) is the largest listed company on the Dhaka
Stock Exchange and the only billion-dollar public company (Market
Capitalization of ~US$2.3bn). It has ~45% of market share counting
dual SIMs and 38% on single SIMs. Their network covers 99% of the
country.
GP is also the largest internet service provider (ISP) in the country,
owing to its “Edge” internet services on mobile phones. The next
stage of growth for GP will come from 3G-based business. However,
having paid market-share-determined 2G license renewal fees and
undergone network swap for 3G, the business case for 3G is not
imminent. It will depend on a cheapening of the internet, recouping
licensing fees over time and availability of low-cost of 3G-enabled
phones. GP has completed a year-long network swap to make it 3G-
enabled.
It’s primary competitors are gaining market share of late through
aggressive pricing, which is eroding the premium GP enjoyed on
ARPU. GP is presently focused on operational efficiency and
product diversification after the headwinds of 2012 in the form of 2G-
license-related payments, SIM-registration and 10-second pulse.
Bangladesh Submarine Cable Company (BSCCL), incorporated in
July 2008 and publicly listed in June 2012, operates the only
international submarine cable connectivity in Bangladesh. BSCCL
is 74% government-owned and has 26% free-float.
The cable is 20,000km-long and crosses 17 landing points in
Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka,
Pakistan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Tunisia, Italy, Algeria and
France. The Bangladesh landing station is at Cox’s Bazar. BSCCL
is mandated to handle the submarine cable connectivity as a
member of the SEA-ME-WE-4 (SMW-4) international submarine
cable consortium. BSCCL has earned membership to the SEA-
ME-WE-5 consortium as well which allow it to handle a second
submarine cable connectivity through the country, scheduled to
go live in 2014.
The company provides bandwidth access to all the telecom
operators (e.g. IIG, IGW, mobile operators, ISP etc.) and with non-
cash depreciation being the major expense item, it is able to
generate significant margins. In 2011, BSCCL’s EBITDA Margin,
Gross Margin, Operating Margin, and Profit Margin were 90%,
84%, 73%, and 36%, respectively. Their business will be volume
driven and with internet penetration growth rate increasing
exponentially, BSCCL is well poised to grow sustains high
margins.
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39. www.BRACEPL.com
Cement
Cement is a growth sector in Bangladesh growing at 88% in
2005-12 on low base of per capita consumption; multiplier effect
of GDP growth; annual development program (ADP) spend.
However, future growth rates ought to surpass historical
averages given larger scale and count of infrastructure projects
in the pipeline, as well as affordable housing projects. Double-
digit annual growth rates are in the offing 2013-21.
The sector’s current installed capacity is 22 mmt and actual
capacity ~17 mmt. The industry uses a 95% to 5% mix of
Portland Composite Cement (PCC) to Ordinary Portland Cement
(OPC). Per capita cement consumption is 78kg per capita,
compared with 150kg for India, world average of 260kg, and
China’s 1000kg per capita (highest globally).
As of 1H 2012, consumption breakdown by retail : real estate
developers : public sector is 45% : 25% : 30%. The unit price is
around US$5.5 per bag. Clinker, the primary raw material, is
~70% of production cost. Clinker imports exposes the sector to
FX-volatility while lowering capacity utilization. CAPEX additions
are anticipated 2014 onwards.
The top five players and respective market share are Shah
Cement (14%); Heidelberg (11%); Holcim (8%); Meghna (8%)
and Lafarge (~7%). *
*as of most recently available figure
Lafarge Surma Cement is the only exception to the sector in that
they have backward-linkage. They have a limestone quarry in
Meghalaya, India, from which they transfer limestone via a 17-km
conveyor belt to their production plant in Bangladesh. However,
following a legal petition filed on grounds of environmental
concerns, Lafarge was unable to access its limestone until the
Indian Supreme Court ruled in Lafarge’s favor, after 17 months.
Lafarge regained access to its quarry in Aug 2011. Other than
cost savings from in-house clinker production, backward-linkage
hedges Lafarge against oil price increases, which increases
import costs on depreciating BDT. Lafarge, prior to operational
disruption in most of 2010-11, earned 39% gross margins.
Heidelberg Cement is our top pick in the cement sector. It had
annual capacity of 2.1m tons as of 2011 with 30% additional
capacity expected in 2012. It’s flagship cement brands are Ruby
and ScanCem. In 9M 2011, due to dollar rate depreciation, raw
material import costs (~48% of sales over the last five years),
reduced gross margins by 7.2% YoY. However, Heidelberg was
able to pass through ~100% of the cost increase in 2012, and
prices have held even as taka has appreciated against the dollar –
driving our estimates of ~20% gross margins.
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Building Materials
Linde Bangladesh, erstwhile Bangladesh Oxygen Company
(BOC), is the leading industrial gas manufacturer in
Bangladesh. Linde’s BD operations reports to Singapore. The
company operates in three segments: are gases, wielding,
and electrode manufacturing. Linde’s “basket of gases”
contains bulk gas, processed gas, and medical gas. Despite
exchange rate exposure translating to raw-material-import
costs to sales ratio of 3:10, Linde’s gross margins grew 15% in
2011, reflecting their significant pricing power. Our estimates
indicate higher growth rate for 2012, on BDT appreciation and
sustained demand, and 190% growth by 2015. In the bulk,
processed and medical gas segments, Linde is a clear market
leader with 40%, 80% and 70% share, respectively. It’s
competitors are local ship-breakers. Linde’s gas prices are
35% higher than in other markets
Berger Paints, a 275-year-old company operating in South
Asia for 65 years, is considered the ‘pioneer of paint’ in
Bangladesh. Berger has a relatively stable market share of
52% despite competition from Asian Paints and local
manufacturers. Berger has a band of prices for products
depending on quality. On this band, grade A contributes 70%;
grade B 25%, and grades C and D ~5% to Berger’s revenue.
Berger’s products are popular in the retail segment (residential
use) and automobile workshops, although the industrial
segment at large is expected to drive future growth. Berger
also exports to the seven sister states in north-east India.
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Contact Us
Mohammed Rahmat Pasha Chief Executive Officer pasha@bracepl.com +88 01755 540040
Sajid Huq Amit
Director
Strategic Sales
sajid.huq@bracepl.com +88 01730 727949
Saleh Chowdhury
Assistant Manager
Strategic Sales
saleh.chowdhury@bracepl.co
m
+88 01730 727946
BRAC EPL Strategic Sales
121/B Gulshan Avenue
Gulshan-2, Dhaka
Bangladesh
