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The End of an Era
The Abandonment of the PSTN
Mark J. Fletcher, ENP
Chief Architect
Worldwide Public Safety Solutions
March 2014
© 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 2
Brief History of the Bell System
1875
Alexander Bell forms American Bell
1876
Bell Telephone Patent #174,465
1878
1st Telephone Exchange – New Haven, CT
1st Switchboard / Operator – New Haven, CT
1st Telephone in the Whitehouse
1882
American Bell buys Western Electric
1884
AT&T is formed as a subsidiary
Long Distance Connection (NY  CHI)
1899
AT&T Buys out American Bell assets
© 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 3
Brief History of the Bell System
1899
Bell competitor Brown Telephone forms
1949
U.S> Anti-Trust Lawsuit against AT&T
1956
AT&T not allowed to enter computer and
information services
AT&T allowed to keep Western Electric
AT&T Long Distance formed
Bell Labs became „research‟
1st Trans-Atlantic Telephone cable run (TAT-1)
1968
Microwave Communications of America, Inc.
(MCI) was formed
© 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 4
Brief History of the Bell System
1968
Microwave Communications of America, Inc. (MCI) formed
1971
MCI receives Government approval to compete with AT&T
for long distance services
1974
Department of Justice files Anti-Trust Lawsuit
© 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 5
Brief History of the Bell System
1982
The FCC allows AT&T to get into the computer and information
systems business, provided:
AT&T leaves the local-exchange market
Divests itself of all Bell Telephone assets except phone system
manufacturing facilities
Converts the 22 separate Bell Operating Carriers into 7
Regional Bell Operating Carriers (RBOC)
Ameritech
Bell Atlantic
BellSouth Corporation
NYNEX
Pacific Telesis Group
Southwestern Bell Corporation
US West
The RBOCs are barred from competing in long distance
© 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 66
2012 FCC Technical Advisory Council Report States:
[T]he FCC should set a date after which the circuit-switched
voice elements of the PSTN would no longer constitute the
network of record in the United States.
© 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 77
Verizon is filing Tarrifs to quietly step away
© 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 88
Decreasing Equipment Lifecycles
Based on simple math alone, if you
bought a “box” to provide a service to
your customers, and the life expectancy
of that box was 20 years, you could
easily calculate your cost per month per
customer. If, because of new
technology, the life expectancy were
reduced to five years, your monthly-
amortized cost would increase by four
times to compensate for that event.
0
10
20
30
40
5 Years
10 Years
20 Years
Monthly Cost Over Lifespan
5 Years
10 Years
20 Years
© 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 99
Diminishing Customer Base
Based on simple math alone, if you
bought a “box” to provide a service to
your customers, and your customer
base diminishes by 50%, based on the
above “20 year model”, your annual
amortized expense would double per
customer.
0
10
20
30
40
Cost Per Customer
50% Reduction
Full Customer Base
© 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 1010
Decreased Support Cost For New Equipment
The legacy network required a trained workforce, roving
around in specialized vehicles, full of expensive test
equipment.
New modern networks can reside in “dark centers” where
access to programming and diagnostics is all
accomplished remotely through a data connection.
While this does nothing to reduce the expense of a
trained workforce, but it does remove the requirement to
have that workforce out in the streets in vehicles.
© 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 1111
The Perfect Storm: SANDY
Late in the fall of 2012, Hurricane Sandy barreled its way
up the East Coast causing significant damage to our
telecommunications infrastructure from Washington DC to
New England.
It was a classic example of the 100 year storm, and in
addition to causing several outages, much of the
infrastructure became destroyed.
This poses a unique problem to telecommunications
carriers like AT&T, Verizon and Century Link. Do they
rebuild their aging infrastructure that was just recently
amortized off the books, or was just about to be?
If they do, they have to start the “20 year clock” all over
again, but they are faced with statements that the PSTN
will start to go away in five short years.
© 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 1212
Services that are dependent on POTS
 Credit Card Machines
 Modems
 TTY/TDD
 ATM Machines
 Alarm Lines
 Point to Point Special Circuits
© 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 13
A new analysis of data released by the
U.S. Federal Communications
Commission (FCC) shows that nearly half
of all calls received by 9-1-1 emergency
centers in North Carolina from wireless
phones in June 2013 did not include the
accurate location information necessary to
find a caller in crisis.
The problem has worsened over the past
year, as the percent of calls lacking such
information has risen from 36% in June
2012 to 47% in June of this year.
What about 911 service?
© 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 1414
How will it affect YOUR business?
PSTN Abandonment:
Clearly, it‟s happening
Even more clearer, is the fact that we
ARE NOT READY!
The End of an Era: The Abandonment of the PSTN

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The End of an Era: The Abandonment of the PSTN

  • 1. The End of an Era The Abandonment of the PSTN Mark J. Fletcher, ENP Chief Architect Worldwide Public Safety Solutions March 2014
  • 2. © 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 2 Brief History of the Bell System 1875 Alexander Bell forms American Bell 1876 Bell Telephone Patent #174,465 1878 1st Telephone Exchange – New Haven, CT 1st Switchboard / Operator – New Haven, CT 1st Telephone in the Whitehouse 1882 American Bell buys Western Electric 1884 AT&T is formed as a subsidiary Long Distance Connection (NY  CHI) 1899 AT&T Buys out American Bell assets
  • 3. © 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 3 Brief History of the Bell System 1899 Bell competitor Brown Telephone forms 1949 U.S> Anti-Trust Lawsuit against AT&T 1956 AT&T not allowed to enter computer and information services AT&T allowed to keep Western Electric AT&T Long Distance formed Bell Labs became „research‟ 1st Trans-Atlantic Telephone cable run (TAT-1) 1968 Microwave Communications of America, Inc. (MCI) was formed
  • 4. © 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 4 Brief History of the Bell System 1968 Microwave Communications of America, Inc. (MCI) formed 1971 MCI receives Government approval to compete with AT&T for long distance services 1974 Department of Justice files Anti-Trust Lawsuit
  • 5. © 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 5 Brief History of the Bell System 1982 The FCC allows AT&T to get into the computer and information systems business, provided: AT&T leaves the local-exchange market Divests itself of all Bell Telephone assets except phone system manufacturing facilities Converts the 22 separate Bell Operating Carriers into 7 Regional Bell Operating Carriers (RBOC) Ameritech Bell Atlantic BellSouth Corporation NYNEX Pacific Telesis Group Southwestern Bell Corporation US West The RBOCs are barred from competing in long distance
  • 6. © 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 66 2012 FCC Technical Advisory Council Report States: [T]he FCC should set a date after which the circuit-switched voice elements of the PSTN would no longer constitute the network of record in the United States.
  • 7. © 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 77 Verizon is filing Tarrifs to quietly step away
  • 8. © 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 88 Decreasing Equipment Lifecycles Based on simple math alone, if you bought a “box” to provide a service to your customers, and the life expectancy of that box was 20 years, you could easily calculate your cost per month per customer. If, because of new technology, the life expectancy were reduced to five years, your monthly- amortized cost would increase by four times to compensate for that event. 0 10 20 30 40 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years Monthly Cost Over Lifespan 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years
  • 9. © 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 99 Diminishing Customer Base Based on simple math alone, if you bought a “box” to provide a service to your customers, and your customer base diminishes by 50%, based on the above “20 year model”, your annual amortized expense would double per customer. 0 10 20 30 40 Cost Per Customer 50% Reduction Full Customer Base
  • 10. © 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 1010 Decreased Support Cost For New Equipment The legacy network required a trained workforce, roving around in specialized vehicles, full of expensive test equipment. New modern networks can reside in “dark centers” where access to programming and diagnostics is all accomplished remotely through a data connection. While this does nothing to reduce the expense of a trained workforce, but it does remove the requirement to have that workforce out in the streets in vehicles.
  • 11. © 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 1111 The Perfect Storm: SANDY Late in the fall of 2012, Hurricane Sandy barreled its way up the East Coast causing significant damage to our telecommunications infrastructure from Washington DC to New England. It was a classic example of the 100 year storm, and in addition to causing several outages, much of the infrastructure became destroyed. This poses a unique problem to telecommunications carriers like AT&T, Verizon and Century Link. Do they rebuild their aging infrastructure that was just recently amortized off the books, or was just about to be? If they do, they have to start the “20 year clock” all over again, but they are faced with statements that the PSTN will start to go away in five short years.
  • 12. © 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 1212 Services that are dependent on POTS  Credit Card Machines  Modems  TTY/TDD  ATM Machines  Alarm Lines  Point to Point Special Circuits
  • 13. © 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 13 A new analysis of data released by the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) shows that nearly half of all calls received by 9-1-1 emergency centers in North Carolina from wireless phones in June 2013 did not include the accurate location information necessary to find a caller in crisis. The problem has worsened over the past year, as the percent of calls lacking such information has risen from 36% in June 2012 to 47% in June of this year. What about 911 service?
  • 14. © 2014 Avaya Inc. All rights reserved. 1414 How will it affect YOUR business? PSTN Abandonment: Clearly, it‟s happening Even more clearer, is the fact that we ARE NOT READY!