Country insights for China from BP's Energy Outlook 2035 published in 2014. We project that by 2035 China will become the world’s largest energy importer, exceeding that of Europe, as import dependence rises from 15% to 20%.

1. BP Energy Outlook 2035
China
We project that by 2035 China will become the world’s largest energy importer,
exceeding that of Europe, as import dependence rises from 15% to 20%. Here are
a few reasons why:
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China’s energy production rises by 61%
while consumption grows by 71%.
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China’s share in global demand rises from
22% to 27% in 2035, while it’s growth
contributes to 38% of the world’s net gains.
China’s energy production as a share of
consumption drops from 85% today to 80%
by 2035, making the country the world’s
largest net importer.
•
China’s energy mix continues to evolve
with coal’s dominance declining from 69%
today to 52% and natural gas doubling to
12% with oil unchanged around 18%.
China overtakes the US as the world’s
largest oil consumer by 2027 and Russia as
the world’s second largest gas consumer
by 2025 (trailing only the US).
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China’s fossil fuel output continues to rise
with increases in natural gas (+232%) and
coal (+34%) offsetting declines in oil (-2%).
Oil import dependence rises from 57% in
2012 to 76% in 2035, while gas
dependence rises from 25% to 41%.
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Energy consumed in transport grows by
120%, the fastest among the sectors. Oil
remains the dominant fuel but loses market
share, dropping from 90% to 82% in 2035.
Gas’ share increases from 5% to 12%
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Energy consumed in power generation will
rise by 95% and while coal remains the
dominant fuel source, its market share
drops from 77% today to 59% in 2035 as
renewables increase from 3% to 12%.
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Industry remains the largest energy
consumer of all sectors, but sees the
slowest growth (+53%), causing its share
of demand to drop from 51% to 46%.
Demand for all fossil fuels expands with oil
(+76%), gas (+322%), and coal (+30%)
covering 70% of demand growth, but
renewables in power (+768%), nuclear
(+1047%), and hydro (+57%) also grow
strongly.
China’s CO2 emissions increase by 47%
and by 2035 will account for 30% of world
total with per capita emissions surpassing
the OECD near the end of the outlook.
With the economy expanding by 247% to
2035, China’s energy intensity declines by
51%, compared to just 20% from 1990-10.
www.bp.com/energyoutlook