The document analyzes the effect of managerial changes on team performance in several top European football leagues. It finds that home team performance improved significantly in all leagues except Serie A after a new manager was appointed. Away performances gradually improved over two months in the Premier League, Bundesliga and Serie A, but saw no change in La Liga. Overall, all leagues saw performance increase with a new manager, with average points per game more than doubling to 1.214 in the first 30 days.
1. Changing the manager – football analysis
There are many changes in managerial roles in football. We will focus in this
analysis on how recent managerial changes in huge football leagues changed
the results of the team.
From the data we are focused on:
1. Home team performance change
2. Away team performance change
3. Overall performance change
Leagues considered:
1. English Premier League
2. German Bundesliga
3. Spanish La Liga
4. Italian Serie A
2. Changing the manager – football analysis
Year considered: 2014/2015 season changes on managerial post
Metrics considered:
1. Points per game (PPG) 30 days before manager appointed
2. Points per game (PPG) of first 30 days new manager is in the club
3. Points per game (PPG) of first 60 days new manager is in the club,
to underline/ deny the trend
By comparing the metrics values for each of the league and in total we
will generalize the results and gain knowledge.
3. Base data – manager changes (www.betviz.com )
Team Manager Appoitment League
QPR Chris Ramsey 2015-02-13 Premier League
Newcastle Utd. John Carver 2015-01-26 Premier League
Sunderland AFC Dick Advocaat 2015-03-17 Premier League
Aston Villa Tim Sherwood 2015-02-16 Premier League
West Brom Tony Pulis 2015-01-01 Premier League
Crystal Palace Alan Pardew 2015-01-03 Premier League
VfB Stuttgart Huub Stevens 2014-11-25 1.Bundesliga
Hannover 96 Michael Frontzeck 2015-04-20 1.Bundesliga
Hamburger SV Bruno Labbadia 2015-04-15 1.Bundesliga
Hertha BSC Pál Dárdai 2015-02-05 1.Bundesliga
1.FSV Mainz 05 Martin Schmidt 2015-02-17 1.Bundesliga
Werder Bremen Viktor Skripnik 2014-10-26 1.Bundesliga
FC Schalke 04 Roberto Di Matteo 2014-10-07 1.Bundesliga
Córdoba CF José Antonio Romero 2015-03-16 La Liga
Dep. La Coruña Víctor Sánchez 2015-04-09 La Liga
UD Almería Sergi Barjuán 2015-04-06 La Liga
Levante UD Lucas Alcaraz 2014-10-22 La Liga
Real Sociedad David Moyes 2014-11-10 La Liga
AC Cesena Domenico Di Carlo 2014-12-08 Serie A
Atalanta Edoardo Reja 2015-03-04 Serie A
Chievo Rolando Maran 2014-10-19 Serie A
Inter Roberto Mancini 2014-11-14 Serie A
4. Changing the manager – HOME TEAM
In home team performance we gained nice knowledge:
- In all leagues except for Italian Serie A we gained tremendous
improvement of PPG in Home Games.
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
Home - month before Home First 30 days Home First 60 days
Home Performance
Premier League 1.Bundesliga La Liga Serie A
WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT!
5. Changing the manager – AWAY TEAM
In away team performance we gained nice knowledge:
- In Spanish La Liga there was no change even after 2 months. In
remaining 3 leagues teams were slowly gaining confidence and grab
points.
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
A A+1 A+2
Away Performance
Premier League 1.Bundesliga La Liga Serie A
6. Changing the manager – OVERALL
In OVERALL performance:
- ALL leagues proven that results went UP!
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
T T+1 T+2
Total Performance
Premier League 1.Bundesliga La Liga Serie A
7. Changing the manager – key figures
Before managerial change, average PPG was 0.604.
Within the first 30 days of new manager, this figure was more
than doubled and achieved an impressive level: 1.214
(+101%)
Taking the first 60 days of new manager into account did not
change the results drastically (compared to the first 30 days),
so after first month trend was rather stabilized: 1.30 (+115%)
8. WRAP-UP of knowledge gained
It appears after a new manager comes, it is fine to believe
the team IMMEDIATELY
Even better is to believe when team is playing at home,
except for Serie A
The best performers were in Germany: in Bundesliga change
of manager works.
In Spanish La Liga the teams are not doing well playing away
from home even after 2 months.