The Great Recession had a severe impact on employment in Illinois, with non-farm employment declining by 337,000 jobs. While unemployment has fallen since 2010, employment has yet to return to pre-recession levels and remains higher than the national average. Certain sectors like manufacturing, retail, and construction were hit hard, while others like healthcare and education grew. Metropolitan areas dependent on manufacturing struggled most, though areas like Chicago have seen stronger recovery. Future job growth is projected in sectors like professional services, healthcare, transportation, and replacing retiring manufacturing workers.

1. The Great Recession and
Illinois Employment Trends
Presented by
Brian Harger, M.S., EDFP
Center for Governmental Studies
Northern Illinois University
DeKalb, Illinois
August, 2013

2. Background
• The recession that began in January 2008 was the steepest
economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It has
been referred to as “The Great Recession” because of its severity
and the length of its duration.
• Although the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009,
employment in Illinois has yet to return to the levels achieved
before it began.
• In many areas of the State unemployment remains at record levels
despite gains in employment.
• This presentation explores Illinois employment trends during the
Great Recession and since. It also looks at the relationship between
recent employment trends and the State’s industrial structure.
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3. Unemployment Trends
Monthly Rate 1980 ‐ 2013
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
UnemploymentRate
Illinois
U.S.
Note: Data is not seasonally adjusted.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2013.
Recession
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4. Still Waiting for Recovery?
• Since peaking in the first quarter of 2010 the Illinois
unemployment rate has declined steadily, but remains higher
the national average.
• Some of this can be attributed to a contraction in the labor
force. Since the end of the recent recession, the labor force
has declined by 130,000.
• Non‐farm employment declined 337,000 during the recession.
Since the recession ended in June 2009 it has remained
relatively stable, but has yet to experience sustained growth.
• The number of unemployed has fallen by 128,000 since the
recession ended, but is still nearly twice the average of the
past decade.
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5. Still Waiting for Recovery?
• Employment has not yet returned to
pre‐recession levels despite
moderate growth in State and
national GDP.
• The employment decline
experienced during the recent
recession was similar to the 1981‐82
recession and, so far, is following a
slow path to recovery.
• For example, 47 months after the
end of the 1981‐82 recession,
employment had increased 7.6%.
• In contrast, 47 months after the end
of the recent recession employment
is essentially unchanged.
7
17
9
9
19
17
58
34
62
0 20 40 60 80
January 1980 to July 1980
July 1981 to November 1982
July 1990 to March 1991
March 2001 to November 2001
December 2007 to June 2009
Months
The Duration of Past Recessions and
Recovery Periods in Illinois
Return to Pre-Recession Level
Duration of Recession*
* The duration of recessions are determined by the Business Cycle Dating Committee
at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,
2013.
47 & counting…
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6. Employment Changes in Illinois
Comparison of Industry Sectors
• More than three‐fourths of the
jobs lost during the recession were
in the manufacturing, professional
and business services, and retail
trade sectors.
• While manufacturing and business
and professional services have
made a significant recovery, retail
and other sectors remain weak.
• The educational services, health
care and social assistance and
leisure and hospitality sectors were
the only ones that added
employment during the recession
and are continuing to do so.
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-5.7%
0.0%
-13.7%
-15.2%
-6.6%
-10.4%
3.4%
-9.5%
-8.0%
-5.9%
-7.4%
-10.1%
0.5%
2.8%
3.2%
0.4%
-0.6%
2.7%
9.3%
-14.3%
2.0%
4.4%
-0.6%
-0.4%
7.1%
-6.1%
1.2%
-2.2%
13.1%
11.2%
6.8%
5.0%
-2.0%
-4.5%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Total Non-Farm Employment
Mining and Logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Utilities
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Professional and Business Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Percent Change in Employment
June 2009 - June 2013
Dec. 2007 - June 2009
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2013.

7. Employment Changes in Illinois
Comparison of Metropolitan and Non‐Metropolitan Areas
• The Chicago and Rockford metro
areas lost the largest number of
jobs during the recession, but have
had strong growth since then.
• Although other downstate metro
and non‐metro areas experienced
fewer job losses, post‐recession
growth has been weaker.
• Areas with a greater dependence
on manufacturing and construction
industries seem to have struggled
the most during and after the
recession.
-5.7%
-6.2%
-3.7%
-2.9%
-8.3%
-7.0%
-4.3%
-4.3%
-4.4%
-6.0%
-11.5%
-0.2%
-4.0%
2.7%
3.6%
2.2%
3.3%
2.6%
0.0%
2.8%
-4.7%
1.4%
3.4%
3.9%
0.6%
0.0%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
State of Illinois
Chicago Metropolitan Division
Lake County-Kenosha County
Bloomington-Normal
Champaign-Urbana
Danville
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island
Decatur
Kankakee-Bradley
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
Non-Metro Areas
Percent Change in Employment
June 2009 - June 2013
Dec. 2007 - June 2009
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2013.
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8. Opportunities for Job Growth
Professional and Business Services
• Despite significant job losses during the recession, this sector
has rebounded strongly, adding 103,000 jobs since June 2009.
• Professional and business services currently represents 15%
of non‐farm employment in Illinois.
• Much of the employment growth in this sector is
concentrated in the Chicago metro area and several
downstate metro areas.
• The areas of the greatest projected job growth through 2020
include employment services (20,200 jobs), computer systems
design (19,900 jobs), management, scientific and technical
services (17,300 jobs) and services to buildings and dwellings
(14,300 jobs).
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9. Opportunities for Job Growth
Healthcare
• Healthcare was one of the few sectors that experienced
employment growth through the recession, adding 15,600
jobs (a 2.5% increase).
• The industry continued its strong performance, growing by
5.4% or 31,500 jobs since June, 2009 and it is projected to
add 56,000 jobs between 2013 and 2020.
• The Illinois population is aging rapidly and with life expectancy
of seniors increasing, the demand for healthcare services will
continue to grow creating more jobs opportunities.
• The effect of the Affordable Care Act passed in 2010 remains
to be seen, but its impact on employment will be dramatic.
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10. Opportunities for Job Growth
Manufacturing
• The recent trend toward “re‐shoring” of some manufacturing
activities holds significant job creation potential.
• The looming demand for workers to replace retiring “Baby
Boomers” will be the primary source of job openings in
manufacturing over the next decade.
• Over 8,500 new production workers per year will be needed
to replace retiring workers through 2020. The replacement
demand will also be strong for managerial, professional and
technical positions.
• However, a higher level of training and skills will be needed to
work with more complex production technologies (e.g.,
robotics, 3D printing and nanomanufacturing).
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11. Opportunities for Job Growth
Transportation and Warehousing
• Illinois is a central hub of the North American road, rail, inland
waterway and air transportation networks, giving it a
significant competitive advantage in transportation and
distribution activities.
• Transportation and warehousing accounts for a relatively
small share of total employment in the State, but has grown
steadily in the past two decades.
• Despite slow economic growth and fluctuating fuel costs,
employment has rebounded since the recession, growing by
7.1% or 16,200 jobs since June, 2009 and is projected to add
13,500 jobs between 2013 and 2020.
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12. Keys to Future Employment Growth
• Restore state and local government finances.
• Re‐shoring higher value‐added manufacturing activities.
• Demand for replacement workers as “Baby Boomers” retire
will be the primary source of job openings.
• Demand for healthcare and related services to the elderly
(especially housing, travel and recreation) will continue to
grow as the population ages.
• Continued growth in domestic energy production (especially
natural gas).
• Transportation and logistics infrastructure.
• Innovations in education and worker training.
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13. For More Information
Brian Harger, M.S., EDFP
Research Associate
Center for Governmental Studies
Northern Illinois University
DeKalb, Illinois
E‐mail: bharger@niu.edu
LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/brian‐harger/2/a47/705
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