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Construction Vital Statistics February 2015
at a Glance
Unemployment Rate
(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
12.8%5.5%
Overall
Current Month Year-over-Year
Construction
6.7% 10.6%
Housing Permits & Starts
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
TOTAL PERMITS
Current Month:
3.0% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: 7.7%
TOTAL STARTS
Current Month:
-17.0% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: -3.3%
Nonresidential Construction Material Prices (Producer Price Index)
By the
Numbers: Current Month: 0.4%
Nonresidential Construction Spending (U.S. Census Bureau)
Construction Backlog
Indicator
(Associated Builders & Contractors/4th Quarter 2014)
8.7 vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 8.3
Construction Owner
Confidence Index
(Associated Builders & Contractors/1st Half of 2014)
Readings above 50 indicate growth
SALES EXPECTATIONS
rose from 63.2 to 68.2
PROFIT MARGIN
EXPECTATIONS
expanded from 57.5 to 60.0
STAFFING LEVEL
INTENTIONS
moved higher from 62.2 to 65.0
Year-over-year change: -4.9%
January 2015: -2.0% Year-over-year change: 4.8%
vs.
vs.
February 2015 at a Glance
Construction Backlog Indicator (Months)
Current Backlog
Backlog from a year ago
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
Construction Owner Confidence Index
Sales Expectations
Profit Margin Expectations
Staffing Level Intentions
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
National Unemployment Rate
Overall current month
Overall year over year
Construction current month
Construction year over year
(Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS)
Housing Permits and Starts
National
Permits - Total
Permits - Total from twelve months earlier
1 - Family - change from previous month
1 - Family - change year over year
5 + Units - change from previous month
5 + Units - change year over year
Starts - Total
Starts - Total from twelve months earlier
1 - Family - change from previous month
1 - Family - change year over year
5 + Units - change from previous month
5 + Units - change year over year
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
Nonresidential Construction Material Prices
Current Month
Change year over year
(Producer Price Index - PPI)
Nonresidential Construction Spending
Previous Month
Change year over year
(U.S. Census Bureau)
AIA - Architecture Billing Index
Dodge Momentum Index - Commercial Building
Interest Rates
I-Month LIBOR
WSJ Prime Rate
5 Year US Treasury Rate
10 Year US Treasury Rate
Oct. ‘14
8.8
8.2
5.8%
7.2%
6.4%
9.0%
4.8%
1.2%
1.4%
2.4%
8.0%
-1.5%
-2.8%
7.8%
4.2%
15.4%
-15.5%
-6.8%
-1.1%
0.5%
-1.0%
4.2%
53.7
130.2
0.1535%
3.25%
1.66%
2.63%
Nov. ‘14
5.8%
7.0%
7.5%
8.6%
-5.2%
-0.2%
-1.2%
-0.9%
-11.1%
0.5%
-1.6%
-7.0%
-5.4%
-4.6%
7.6%
-11.9%
-1.1%
-0.6%
1.0%
4.3%
50.9
132.6
0.1548%
3.25%
1.55%
2.12%
Dec. ‘14
5.6%
6.7%
8.3%
11.4%
-1.9%
1.0%
4.5%
8.1%
-12.4%
-9.9%
4.4%
5.3%
7.2%
7.9%
-4.2%
0.3%
-1.7%
-1.9%
-1.0%
4.0%
52.2
138.0
0.1635%
3.25%
1.28%
1.76%
Jan. ‘15
8.7
8.3
5.7%
6.6%
9.8%
12.3%
-0.7%
8.1%
-3.1%
5.8%
3.3%
13.8%
-2.0%
18.7%
-6.7%
16.3%
12.1%
24.5%
-2.1%
-4.6%
0.4%
5.9%
49.9
134.3
0.1682%
3.25%
1.48%
2.00%
Feb. ‘15
5.5%
6.7%
10.6%
12.8%
3.0%
7.7%
-6.2%
2.8%
19.9%
15.0%
-17.0%
-3.3%
-14.9%
0.7%
-21.6%
-9.5%
0.4%
-4.9%
-2.0%
4.8%
50.4
138.0
0.1721%
3.25%
1.41%
1.93%
Reading above 50 indicate growth, while readings below 50 are unfavorable.
Any Architecture Billing Index Score above 50 signifies growth - it is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to 12 month glimpse into the
future of nonresidential construction spending activity.
It is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for
nonresidential buildings by a full year. Since reaching bottom in July 2011 at a level of 77.1 (2000=100), the index has been trending up.
Rates as of mid month.
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
.rtQht4.rtQdr3
Sept. ‘14
68.2
60.0
65.0
5.9%
7.2%
7.0%
8.5%
1.5%
2.5%
-0.5%
1.1%
7.0%
6.3%
6.3%
17.8%
1.1%
11.0%
18.5%
30.3%
-0.2%
1.0%
-1.2%
6.0%
55.2
121.1
0.1541%
3.25%
1.38%
2.16%
1st 1/2 ‘14

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Construction Vital Statistics - February 2015

  • 1. 0 5 10 Construction Vital Statistics February 2015 at a Glance Unemployment Rate (Bureau of Labor Statistics) 12.8%5.5% Overall Current Month Year-over-Year Construction 6.7% 10.6% Housing Permits & Starts (U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.) TOTAL PERMITS Current Month: 3.0% vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 7.7% TOTAL STARTS Current Month: -17.0% vs. 1 yr. Earlier: -3.3% Nonresidential Construction Material Prices (Producer Price Index) By the Numbers: Current Month: 0.4% Nonresidential Construction Spending (U.S. Census Bureau) Construction Backlog Indicator (Associated Builders & Contractors/4th Quarter 2014) 8.7 vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 8.3 Construction Owner Confidence Index (Associated Builders & Contractors/1st Half of 2014) Readings above 50 indicate growth SALES EXPECTATIONS rose from 63.2 to 68.2 PROFIT MARGIN EXPECTATIONS expanded from 57.5 to 60.0 STAFFING LEVEL INTENTIONS moved higher from 62.2 to 65.0 Year-over-year change: -4.9% January 2015: -2.0% Year-over-year change: 4.8% vs. vs. February 2015 at a Glance Construction Backlog Indicator (Months) Current Backlog Backlog from a year ago (Associated Builders & Contractors) Construction Owner Confidence Index Sales Expectations Profit Margin Expectations Staffing Level Intentions (Associated Builders & Contractors) National Unemployment Rate Overall current month Overall year over year Construction current month Construction year over year (Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS) Housing Permits and Starts National Permits - Total Permits - Total from twelve months earlier 1 - Family - change from previous month 1 - Family - change year over year 5 + Units - change from previous month 5 + Units - change year over year Starts - Total Starts - Total from twelve months earlier 1 - Family - change from previous month 1 - Family - change year over year 5 + Units - change from previous month 5 + Units - change year over year (U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.) Nonresidential Construction Material Prices Current Month Change year over year (Producer Price Index - PPI) Nonresidential Construction Spending Previous Month Change year over year (U.S. Census Bureau) AIA - Architecture Billing Index Dodge Momentum Index - Commercial Building Interest Rates I-Month LIBOR WSJ Prime Rate 5 Year US Treasury Rate 10 Year US Treasury Rate Oct. ‘14 8.8 8.2 5.8% 7.2% 6.4% 9.0% 4.8% 1.2% 1.4% 2.4% 8.0% -1.5% -2.8% 7.8% 4.2% 15.4% -15.5% -6.8% -1.1% 0.5% -1.0% 4.2% 53.7 130.2 0.1535% 3.25% 1.66% 2.63% Nov. ‘14 5.8% 7.0% 7.5% 8.6% -5.2% -0.2% -1.2% -0.9% -11.1% 0.5% -1.6% -7.0% -5.4% -4.6% 7.6% -11.9% -1.1% -0.6% 1.0% 4.3% 50.9 132.6 0.1548% 3.25% 1.55% 2.12% Dec. ‘14 5.6% 6.7% 8.3% 11.4% -1.9% 1.0% 4.5% 8.1% -12.4% -9.9% 4.4% 5.3% 7.2% 7.9% -4.2% 0.3% -1.7% -1.9% -1.0% 4.0% 52.2 138.0 0.1635% 3.25% 1.28% 1.76% Jan. ‘15 8.7 8.3 5.7% 6.6% 9.8% 12.3% -0.7% 8.1% -3.1% 5.8% 3.3% 13.8% -2.0% 18.7% -6.7% 16.3% 12.1% 24.5% -2.1% -4.6% 0.4% 5.9% 49.9 134.3 0.1682% 3.25% 1.48% 2.00% Feb. ‘15 5.5% 6.7% 10.6% 12.8% 3.0% 7.7% -6.2% 2.8% 19.9% 15.0% -17.0% -3.3% -14.9% 0.7% -21.6% -9.5% 0.4% -4.9% -2.0% 4.8% 50.4 138.0 0.1721% 3.25% 1.41% 1.93% Reading above 50 indicate growth, while readings below 50 are unfavorable. Any Architecture Billing Index Score above 50 signifies growth - it is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to 12 month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. It is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. Since reaching bottom in July 2011 at a level of 77.1 (2000=100), the index has been trending up. Rates as of mid month. 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 .rtQht4.rtQdr3 Sept. ‘14 68.2 60.0 65.0 5.9% 7.2% 7.0% 8.5% 1.5% 2.5% -0.5% 1.1% 7.0% 6.3% 6.3% 17.8% 1.1% 11.0% 18.5% 30.3% -0.2% 1.0% -1.2% 6.0% 55.2 121.1 0.1541% 3.25% 1.38% 2.16% 1st 1/2 ‘14