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Relationship Forecasting by Caroline Stockmann - CFO -Save the Children International
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! JWI 531 Financial Management II Week Four | Lecture Two ! ! Please note that this basic version of the lecture is provided as a convenience for the student, and may be missing interactive materials throughout. Students are still responsible for reviewing the missing materials - including audio, video, and interactive widgets - that are found in the full lecture. - Page -1 ADDITIONAL VALUATION TECHNIQUES: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AND DECISION TREES ! In the digital age, businesses are deluged with data. Sophisticated tools are abundant. Until recently, however, the financial world’s wizardry seemed invincible. Recent events have significantly changed that perception. But a few complex techniques still remain unblemished. Sensitivity analysis and decision trees, in particular, can help you manage uncertainty about the future. And businesses today have learned to live with a high degree of uncertainty. The assets companies own will eventually reveal their full, productive capacity. The key word is eventually. You won’t know just how valuable an entity or a project is until that time comes. Since you know you’re going to be wrong at some point, what can you do about it? Not much, except to minimize the damage and incorporate uncertainty into your decision-making processes. - Page -2 HOW TO BE GOOD AT BEING WRONG The greatest value of sensitivity analysis is that it quickly shows you just how wrong your valuation estimate can be and still be OK. When you’re investing precious resources into a project or a business, you’ll definitely want to know what will happen should things turn out worse or better than expected. Simply stated, sensitivity analysis studies multiple scenarios. You create a range of excessively negative and positive situations (including the most likely scenario in between) and adjust a limited number of key variables like discount and growth rates. You then compare all these scenarios. The purpose is to reveal how sensitive a model is to fluctuations in one direction or another. Because valuation is an imperfect science, financial decision-makers desperately want to know the margin of error they have if something goes wrong. The most basic approach in the sensitivity-analysis tool kit is simple data entry—substituting different figures into your formulas and models and seeing what you get. When doing your analysis of discounted cash flow, net present value, or internal rate of return, the easiest way to incorporate sensitivity analysis is to make a table with long-term growth figures as column values and various discount rates as row values. (You can select other relevant inputs, - Page -3 but whichever you choose, make sure you’re focusing on those that have the most influence over the outcome.) Changing these variables can show you how a small movement can vastly alter the expected intrinsic value of an investment. L ...
!JWI 531 Financial Management II Week Four Lec.docx
!JWI 531 Financial Management II Week Four Lec.docx
katherncarlyle
Courseware from my course on Project Management that I taught in 2010 at St. Joseph\'s College of Business Administration
Project Management 08
Project Management 08
Tathagat Varma
STAT4610 Project 5 “So You Want to be an Entrepreneur?” INTRODUCTION Starting a new business can be an exciting adventure! Who doesn’t want to find themselves at the top of the next Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Myspace, Instagram, Beanie Babies, Pet Rocks, Roto-Rooter, Enron, WorldCom, (OK, you get the point!)? The problem with starting a new business is it carries an inherent amount of risk. (OK, a considerable amount of risk!) One-third of businesses fail within the first two years, and over half are gone in five years. That’s a waste of a significant amount of toil, sweat, intellectual effort, creativity, and—oh yes—capital! Failed businesses have stripped entrepreneurs of their life savings (and the savings of others) for millennia, but the successes have also lined the pockets of a lot of savvy investors. Since most people can’t afford to fund their own startups, a popular strategy involves convincing others to get behind your great idea. Venture capital funds are always willing to chase the next big thing, but unfortunately there is a limit to the patience of the world’s check-writers, and most of them didn’t get rich without recognizing when it is time to cut losses. There is hope, however! Analytics can help every new business set realistic expectations for their investors, and in fact are essential in the formulation of a business plan. Because of the uncertainties involved with startups (in terms of costs, timelines, returns, rates of success, etc.) it is often difficult to forecast the progression of a new venture, but with a sufficient knowledge of the field and the tasks required, a simulation can frequently get an entrepreneur into the right ballpark. Sometimes this is enough to start the money flowing! PROJECT OVERVIEW In this project you will develop a business plan for an Angel Investor in order to secure funding for your new startup. You will require funding until the point that your company generates a profit and is actually able to return capital (or positive equity) to its investors. Expenses may include payroll for developers or designers, facilities and infrastructure, marketing and sales, purchasing or collecting data, research, and a variety of other costs that you may want to identify. Obviously, you will have to identify a viable product around which to build your company, and if you’re stuck without an idea, feel free to go back to your Gateway Course and build a business around app development. Finally, you will need to determine the cost of executing your business plan across this timeline in order to secure sufficient funding. [As an aside, the particular product or service is not essential to this project—you may use something developed in another course, some cool idea that you might have in mind, or something entirely fictional.] You may make any assumptions you want concerning the availability of personnel (whether you will be required to hire them or if they are already onboard as part .
STAT4610 Project 5So You Want to be an Entrepreneur”INTROD.docx
STAT4610 Project 5So You Want to be an Entrepreneur”INTROD.docx
mckellarhastings
http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/business-stat/opre/partIX.htm Tools for Decision Analysis: Analysis of Risky Decisions If you will begin with certainties, you shall end in doubts, but if you will content to begin with doubts, you shall end in almost certainties. -- Francis Bacon Making decisions is certainly the most important task of a manager and it is often a very difficult one. This site offers a decision making procedure for solving complex problems step by step.It presents the decision-analysis process for both public and private decision-making, using different decision criteria, different types of information, and information of varying quality. It describes the elements in the analysis of decision alternatives and choices, as well as the goals and objectives that guide decision-making. The key issues related to a decision-maker's preferences regarding alternatives, criteria for choice, and choice modes, together with the risk assessment tools are also presented. Professor Hossein Arsham MENU 1. Introduction & Summary 2. Probabilistic Modeling: From Data to a Decisive Knowledge 3. Decision Analysis: Making Justifiable, Defensible Decisions 4. Elements of Decision Analysis Models 5. Decision Making Under Pure Uncertainty: Materials are presented in the context of Financial Portfolio Selections. 6. Limitations of Decision Making under Pure Uncertainty 7. Coping with Uncertainties 8. Decision Making Under Risk: Presentation is in the context of Financial Portfolio Selections under risk. 9. Making a Better Decision by Buying Reliable Information: Applications are drawn from Marketing a New Product. 10. Decision Tree and Influence Diagram 11. Why Managers Seek the Advice From Consulting Firms 12. Revising Your Expectation and its Risk 13. Determination of the Decision-Maker's Utility 14. Utility Function Representations with Applications 15. A Classification of Decision Maker's Relative Attitudes Toward Risk and Its Impact 16. The Discovery and Management of Losses 17. Risk: The Four Letters Word 18. Decision's Factors-Prioritization & Stability Analysis 19. Optimal Decision Making Process 20. JavaScript E-labs Learning Objects 21. A Critical Panoramic View of Classical Decision Analysis 22. Exercise Your Knowledge to Enhance What You Have Learned (PDF) 23. Appendex: A Collection of Keywords and Phrases Companion Sites: · Business Statistics · Success Science · Leadership Decision Making · Linear Programming (LP) and Goal-Seeking Strategy · Linear Optimization Software to Download · Artificial-variable Free LP Solution Algorithms · Integer Optimization and the Network Models · Tools for LP Modeling Validation · The Classical Simplex Method · Zero-Sum Games with Applications · Computer-assisted Learning Concepts and Techniques · Linear Algebra and LP Connections · From Linear to Nonlinear Optimization with Business Applications · Construction of the Sensitivity Region for LP Models · Zero Sagas in Four Dimensions · Systems Simulation · B.
httphome.ubalt.eduntsbarshbusiness-statoprepartIX.htmTool.docx
httphome.ubalt.eduntsbarshbusiness-statoprepartIX.htmTool.docx
adampcarr67227
Pereira diamond benefits management model - Questions and answer
Pereira diamond benefits management model - Q&A
Pereira diamond benefits management model - Q&A
Association for Project Management
Agile budget v1.01
Agile budget v1.01
Johan Oskarsson
This is the speech delivered by Ignacio Velez Pareja at Moscow Business Valuation Conference 2008
Ignacio Velez-Pareja : From the Slide Rule to the Black Berry
Ignacio Velez-Pareja : From the Slide Rule to the Black Berry
Futurum2
As Solventure we proud ourselves of being experts in designing and implementing Sales, Inventory and Operations Planning. Companies that have a good SiOP process can’t imagine how to live without it. It is the key instrument for the CEO to navigate the business along the budget towards its strategic targets. Demand Planning plays an important role in every SiOP process and is key to to make it successful. This white paper, Effective Demand Planning, summarizes the vision we have distilled from the many projects we have done over the last 10 years.
Effective demand planning - our vision at Solventure
Effective demand planning - our vision at Solventure
Solventure
Aliado risk management presentation v3a
Aliado risk management presentation v3a
Jody Keyser
Learn how you can conduct an accurate risk analysis to properly identify and manage the risks that your organization may possibly face.
Risk Analysis & Risk Management
Risk Analysis & Risk Management
Grafic.guru
MinRiskPub
MinRiskPub
Marty Grogan, Wisdom Advocate
Step-by-Step Guide How to Write Narrative Essay (2023 Update). Tips on How to Write a Narrative Essay: Expert Advice at KingEssays©. FREE 6+ Narrative Writing Samples and Templates in PDF. Personal Narrative Essay Examples.
Essay Narrative Example. Narrative Essay PDF Essays Narrative
Essay Narrative Example. Narrative Essay PDF Essays Narrative
Elizabeth Pardue
Appendix A Business Plan Assignment The Business Plan will be about health organization thinking about buying MRI. One of the ways that organizations prosper is through the introduction of new programs, projects, and other ventures. A business plan is a document that provides the information needed to determine whether the venture is likely to fail or to succeed. A business plan should help you assess whether the proposed venture is sensible, whether it fits the organizational mission, and whether it will be financially viable. WHY DEVELOP A BUSINESS PLAN The more time and effort managers put into a project, the more committed they become to it, and the harder it becomes to recognize the project’s limitations. So the first and foremost reason for developing a business plan is to discover weaknesses and eliminate bad proposals at an early stage. If the plan provides evidence that the proposed venture is a good one, then the plan becomes a vital tool in a number of ways. It provides the details of why the idea is a good one, supporting the idea with evidence instead of merely opinion. It helps to clarify what we do and don’t know about the venture. It provides a basis to identify and analyze elementary tools for convincing others (e.g., our boss or investors) that the idea is a good one, worthy of financial support. A business plan also serves other purposes. First, it communicates the purpose of the project to everyone throughout the organization. The plan also provides a road map for the future, laying out the steps that will be needed to fully implement the new venture. It should include a formal statement of both financial and nonfinancial goals for the project, and forecasts of what resources will be needed and how they will be obtained. These resources are not only financial, but also include elements such as management talent that will be needed to implement and run the new program. Finally, we prepare a plan so that we will have a basis for assessing and controlling organizational performance once the venture is fully operational. QUESTIONS THAT DRIVE A BUSINESS PLAN A business plan document represents an effort to provide answers to many questions: · What is the venture that is being proposed? · Why would our organization want to do it? · Who will we provide products or services for? · How much will potential customers pay? · How many potential customers are there? · What will our share of the market be? We must be as clear as possible in defining the business concept. To make an evaluation of a project, we need to know whether we are responding to an opportunity or a competitive threat, or simply following the next logical step in achieving the organization’s mission. We must clearly identify the customer for the products or services that will be provided. Understanding the likely possible pricing and demand for the product or service is critical. Similarly, we must address questions related to marketing approaches. There .
Appendix ABusiness Plan AssignmentThe Business Plan will be ab.docx
Appendix ABusiness Plan AssignmentThe Business Plan will be ab.docx
justine1simpson78276
Risk management is essential for the success of any significant project. Information about key project cost, performance, and schedule attributes is often unknown until the project is underway. Risks that can be identified early in the project that impacts the project later are often termed “known unknowns.” These risks can be mitigated, reduced, or retired with a comprehensive risk management process. For risks that are beyond the vision of the project team a properly implemented risk management process can be used to rapidly quantify the risks impact and provide sound plans for mitigating its affect.
Risk management (final review)
Risk management (final review)
Glen Alleman
Spry organizations need to have the option to quickly change on all fronts, including Marketing. Organizations are keen on advertising that is light-footed on the grounds that they trust it will assist them with conveying the correct components of the promoting blend at the perfect chance to impact the particular result they need to accomplish.
Situations and marketing interface
Situations and marketing interface
Farooq Omar
The Top 4 risks in P4P (Pay for Performance) 20120611
The Top 4 risks in P4P (Pay for Performance) 20120611
PERFORMENSATION
CBA Analysis
Cost-Benefit Analysis_ What It Is & How to Do It _ HBS Online.pdf
Cost-Benefit Analysis_ What It Is & How to Do It _ HBS Online.pdf
K T Vigneswara Rao
Presention shared by Dr. Robert Wiltbank at FiBAN's business angel training in Helsinki, 3rd of November. All the presentations and videos are gathered here: https://www.fiban.org/robertwiltbank Presentations given: 1. Comparison of Finnish and US angel activity https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKdmr... - Slides: 2. Angel Returns: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juuAK... - Slides: 3. Effective business angel strategies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsZQd... - Slides: 4. Effectuation in Venture investing - Do experts make decisions differently?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miWap... - Slides For additional details and questions: https://www.fiban.org/robertwiltbank
FiBAN's business angel training "Effectuation in Venture investing - Do exper...
FiBAN's business angel training "Effectuation in Venture investing - Do exper...
FiBAN
The Systems Development Life Cycle Moderate and large firms with unique information needs often develop information systems in-house. That is to say that information technology (IT) professional within the firm design and program the systems. A greater number of smaller companies and large firms with relatively standardized information needs opt to purchase information systems from software vendors. Both approaches represent significant financial and operational risks. a model for reducing this risk through careful planning, execution, control, and documentation of key activities. The five phases of this model are: 1) Business Needs and Strategy Systems Strategy –Assess Strategic Information Needs –Develop a Strategic Systems Plan –Create an Action Plan 2) Project Initiation – Systems Analysis –Conceptualization of Alternative Designs –Systems Evaluation and Selection 3.) In-House Systems Development –Construct the System –Deliver the System 4). Commercial Packages –Trends in Commercial Packages –Choosing a Package 5) Maintenance and Support The participants in systems development can be classified into three broad groups: systems professionals, end users, and stakeholders. Systems professionals are systems analysts, systems designers, and programmers. These individuals actually build the system. They gather facts about problems with the current system, analyze these facts, and formulate a solution to solve the problems. The product of their efforts is a new system. End users are those for whom the system is built. Many users exist at all levels in an organization. These include managers, operations personnel, accountants, and internal auditors. In some organizations, it is difficult to find someone who is not a user. During systems development, systems professionals work with the primary users to obtain an understanding of the users’ problems and a clear statement of their needs. As defined in Chapter 1, stakeholders are individuals either within or outside the organization who have an interest in the system but are not end users. These include accountants, internal auditors, external auditors, and the internal steering committee that oversees systems development. Cost/Time Analysis: As stated before, the cost/time analysis is an attempt to calculate to what degree the project and system will meet the objectives. The SDLC must address two topics in its support of this area: the scope of the analysis and the algorithm for doing it. Cost/Benefit Scope The benefit side of the analysis should be expressed in quantitative terms wherever possible. Qualitative or intangible benefits usually are reflections of poorly analyzed tangible benefits. The SDLC should support the process of quantifying all benefits. On the costs side, the SDLC must address development costs, installation costs and ongoing operational costs. In doing these calculations it should differentiate between capital costs and expense costs. Cost/Benefit Algorithm The method of calcu.
The Systems Development Life Cycle Moderate and large firms with uni.pdf
The Systems Development Life Cycle Moderate and large firms with uni.pdf
arwholesalelors
Similar a Relationship Forecasting
(20)
5 steps for better risk assessment
5 steps for better risk assessment
!JWI 531 Financial Management II Week Four Lec.docx
!JWI 531 Financial Management II Week Four Lec.docx
Project Management 08
Project Management 08
STAT4610 Project 5So You Want to be an Entrepreneur”INTROD.docx
STAT4610 Project 5So You Want to be an Entrepreneur”INTROD.docx
httphome.ubalt.eduntsbarshbusiness-statoprepartIX.htmTool.docx
httphome.ubalt.eduntsbarshbusiness-statoprepartIX.htmTool.docx
Pereira diamond benefits management model - Q&A
Pereira diamond benefits management model - Q&A
Agile budget v1.01
Agile budget v1.01
Ignacio Velez-Pareja : From the Slide Rule to the Black Berry
Ignacio Velez-Pareja : From the Slide Rule to the Black Berry
Effective demand planning - our vision at Solventure
Effective demand planning - our vision at Solventure
Aliado risk management presentation v3a
Aliado risk management presentation v3a
Risk Analysis & Risk Management
Risk Analysis & Risk Management
MinRiskPub
MinRiskPub
Essay Narrative Example. Narrative Essay PDF Essays Narrative
Essay Narrative Example. Narrative Essay PDF Essays Narrative
Appendix ABusiness Plan AssignmentThe Business Plan will be ab.docx
Appendix ABusiness Plan AssignmentThe Business Plan will be ab.docx
Risk management (final review)
Risk management (final review)
Situations and marketing interface
Situations and marketing interface
The Top 4 risks in P4P (Pay for Performance) 20120611
The Top 4 risks in P4P (Pay for Performance) 20120611
Cost-Benefit Analysis_ What It Is & How to Do It _ HBS Online.pdf
Cost-Benefit Analysis_ What It Is & How to Do It _ HBS Online.pdf
FiBAN's business angel training "Effectuation in Venture investing - Do exper...
FiBAN's business angel training "Effectuation in Venture investing - Do exper...
The Systems Development Life Cycle Moderate and large firms with uni.pdf
The Systems Development Life Cycle Moderate and large firms with uni.pdf
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Richard Davies CIO Deutsche Post DHL
Global Business Events - the Heart of your Network.
Discussions on “Mobile” are everywhere right now, from the street to the boardroom, and it provides a two-sided challenge for forward-thinking businesses. On one side, how can the organisation open up new ways of generating engagement and revenue from its customer base? On the other, how can it open up new ways of working for its employees that increase their productivity and improve retention of the best and brightest? Both of these potentially positive changes must be held up against increasing expectations of the protection of both customer and employee information and identity. Derek O’Carroll from Symantec will host this workshop by first presenting a viewpoint and leading a discussion into how this is being addressed today and possible forward-looking strategies.
Mobile – Adoption and Adaption in 2012
Mobile – Adoption and Adaption in 2012
Global Business Events - the Heart of your Network.
Caroline - CIO - Save the Children presentation at the CIO Event for more information click here http://bit.ly/oR262i
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The Communicating Information Officer
Global Business Events - the Heart of your Network.
Presentation by Imad Choucair, CIO , Tecom Investments - at the CIO Event for more information click here http://bit.ly/oR262i
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Role of the Cio
Global Business Events - the Heart of your Network.
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Tecom role of the cio
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Vincent Richardson CIO Concern Worldwide present at the CIO Event. For more information Click here http://bit.ly/oR262i
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ICT in developing world
Global Business Events - the Heart of your Network.
Jennifer Rigby CIO and Karen Dell Head of Sustainability DECC present at the CIO Event. For more information Click here http://bit.ly/oR262i
Greening DECC - The CIO as Champion
Greening DECC - The CIO as Champion
Global Business Events - the Heart of your Network.
By ALAN MUMBY - GLOBAL CIO PRACTICE LEADER ODGERS BERNDTSON EXECUTIVE SEARCH. For more information
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GETTING PERSONAL - CIO CAREER MANAGEMENT
Global Business Events - the Heart of your Network.
Daniel Shepherd, Vice President, Frost & Sullivan presents at the CIO Event. For more information Click here http://bit.ly/oR262i
Throwing Light on the Future; Mega Trends That Will Shape the World
Throwing Light on the Future; Mega Trends That Will Shape the World
Global Business Events - the Heart of your Network.
The new UK Bribery Act 2010 and its “actual” impact by Neill Blundell Eversheds LLP www.cfoevent.com
The new UK Bribery Act 2010 and its “actual” impact
The new UK Bribery Act 2010 and its “actual” impact
Global Business Events - the Heart of your Network.
Capital Markets - What are they looking for from you and your company? by Scott Richardson Brown - CFO - Acsent Resources
Capital Markets - What are they looking for from you and your company?
Capital Markets - What are they looking for from you and your company?
Global Business Events - the Heart of your Network.
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Throwing Light on the Future; Mega Trends That Will Shape the World
The new UK Bribery Act 2010 and its “actual” impact
The new UK Bribery Act 2010 and its “actual” impact
Capital Markets - What are they looking for from you and your company?
Capital Markets - What are they looking for from you and your company?
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RaniT11
Title: Mastering Forex: Strategies for Success Description: "Mastering Forex: Strategies for Success" is your comprehensive guide to navigating the dynamic world of forex trading with confidence and expertise. Whether you're a novice trader seeking to understand the fundamentals or an experienced trader looking to refine your strategies, this ebook provides valuable insights, practical techniques, and proven strategies to help you succeed in the forex markets. Inside, you'll discover essential concepts such as fundamental and technical analysis, risk management principles, and advanced trading strategies, all presented in a clear and accessible manner. Learn how to interpret economic indicators, analyze price charts, and develop robust trading plans tailored to your goals and objectives. Explore the psychology of trading and gain valuable insights into managing emotions, maintaining discipline, and mastering the mindset of a successful trader. With a focus on practical application and real-world examples, "Mastering Forex: Strategies for Success" equips you with the knowledge, skills, and tools needed to thrive in today's fast-paced forex market. Whether you're interested in scalping, day trading, swing trading, or trading the news, you'll find valuable strategies and techniques to help you navigate the complexities of forex trading with confidence and precision. Written by experienced traders and forex experts, this ebook provides a roadmap to forex mastery, guiding you through every step of your trading journey. Plus, with insights into reputable brokers like Exness, known as the best trading platform in the globe, and a 50% bonus on your first-time deposit, you'll have everything you need to start your forex trading journey on the right foot. Don't miss out on this opportunity to unlock your full potential as a forex trader. Whether you're just starting or looking to take your trading to the next level, "Mastering Forex: Strategies for Success" is your ultimate resource for achieving success in the forex markets. Get your copy today and embark on the path to trading mastery.
MASTERING FOREX: STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS.pdf
MASTERING FOREX: STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS.pdf
Cocity Enterprises
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Q1 2024 Conference Call Presentation vF.pdf
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Adnet Communications
Business Principles, Tools, and Techniques in Participating in Various Types of Industries in the Locality
Business Principles, Tools, and Techniques in Participating in Various Types...
Business Principles, Tools, and Techniques in Participating in Various Types...
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TechFinland
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Introduced by W.D. Gann in the early 20th century, Gann Theory remains a timeless approach to trading that continues to fascinate traders and investors alike. With its unique blend of mathematical analysis and strategic forecasting, Gann Theory offers a comprehensive framework for understanding market movements and making informed trading decisions. Join us as we delve into the intricacies of Gann Theory and uncover the secrets behind its enduring relevance in the fast-paced world of trading.
W.D. Gann Theory Complete Information.pdf
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