This presentation by Michiel van Eupen from Wageningen University explains what ROBIN is and what role land use modeling plays in ROBIN.

1. Land Use Change Modelling
in the ROBIN project;
a multi-scale idea
Michiel van Eupen,
Alterra Wageningen University
Technical & Networking Session 1.1
Supporting landscape scale planning for REDD+;
How useful are land use change models?
UNEP, WCMC, IIASA, Warsaw, 16 November 2013

2. What is ROBIN?
Climate Change
Mitigation
Land Use Change
Biodiversity

3. Role of Land Use Modelling in
ROBIN
Continental
 Main Objective:
 further use by vegetation
models like LPJm /JULES
 + ESS modelling at
continental scale
 Entire South- + Meso-America:
 1km scale resolution, limited
amount of land use classes
equal in each country
 Based on available (world )
datasets
 Focussing on major (generic) socio-
economic pathways+ knowledge
 Using CLUE-s land use change
model
Regional (=landscape?)
 Main Objective:
 regional policy evaluation
 Finding relevant thresholds at
regional scale  policies
 to see to what level up- and
downscaling is relevant
 Different regional scales: Amazone,
country (Mexico), detailed case stud.
 extended land use classes,
regionally specific
 Using regional, specific data
 Specific regional policy scenarios
 Using CLUE –s/Dinamica & Participative
modelling tools

4. Continental: CLUE model structure
CLUE will provide:
• yearly output maps of
future land use and
hence, ageing
Y Xβ  ε ,  ~ N(0, 2 )

5. Bolivia: CLUE-Continental 2005

6. Bolivia: CLUE-Continental 2005

7. QUICKScan participatory approach
for creating maps + rules
Y Xβ  ε ,  ~ N(0, 2 )

8. Workflow combining Maps & Rules
Map and compare alternatives
Output Map
Rules used
Trace back to
Rules used
Statistics
per adm.unit

9. QUICKScan changes land cover Pantanal
Effects of floodings due to
upstream erosion & climate conditions

10. How useful are land use change
models on the land scape scale?”
 Focus on policy development
 current limiting factors land-use planning?
 CLUE approach is „needed‟  generic method to translate
demands/changes in to patterns.  link with existing models
etc.
 On the land scape scale models like CLUE needs to be linked to
the policy + planning issues  not easy
 Policies are made by people (policy makers....not modellers):
“Useful for who?” The Policy maker or the scientist?
 The policymaker needs to TRUST the model output.
 Model s should be transparent enough to judge the effect of
the assumptions
