Presentation delivered by Dr. Fentahun Mengistu (Director General of the EIAR, Ethiopia) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico. http://www.borlaug100.org

1. Wheat for Africa
Fentahun Mengistu (PhD)
DG, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research
Borlaug 100, 25-28 March 2014, Ciudad, Obregon,Mexico

2. Wheat for Africa - Facts
• Wheat has been regarded a non- African crop
• Africa Food staples : Maize, beans, root crops,
indigenous crops, etc
• Its production was restricted in SA, NA, and
HLs of Ethiopia and Kenya;
• But with the development of new varieties
(under irrigation) – expanded in the savanna
region such as Nigeria

3. Wheat for Africa - Facts
Wheat producing countries (000 tonnes, 2010)
Major wheat
producing
countries in Africa
exceeding 500 000
tonnes (2010)
• Algeria
• Egypt
• Ethiopia
• Kenya
• Morocco
• South Africa
• Tunisia

4. Wheat for Africa - Facts
• Demand for wheat is growing faster than for any other food crop
 Urban population growth; 300% by 2050
• In 2011: Africa spent >14 b US$ to import 40 m tons
• By 2050:
 Africa spends >$24 b for importing 60 Mt
 North Africa : 25 Mt; SSA: 35 Mt
• Several countries could achieve wheat yields exceeding
6 t/ha (compared to global average of 3t/ha)

5. Wheat for Africa - Facts
Per capita wheat production (1990-2010)
Africa has
the lowest
Per capita
wheat
production
Source: Statistics Division (FAOSTAT, 2012)

6. Widening gap between wheat production and
consumption in Africa
0
5
10
15
20
25
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
Milliontons
Demand Production
Gap
Africa’s farmers produce only 44 percent of the wheat consumed on the continent
All Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

7. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Africa Wheat Import Cost (billion US$)
Import Cost (billion US$)
Rising Cost of Imports
African wheat import constitutes
about a third of Africa’s total food
import expenditures (ca USD 50B)
Source: FAOSTAT

8. Source: Weigand, US Wheat Associates, 2011
Wheat in Africa
Imports and Rising Demand
Slide Credit: Dr. Tom Lumpkin, CIMMYT

9. Challenges of reliance on import markets
• Weather induced supply disruptions
(Key exporters to Africa rely on rainfed production)
• Price spikes and price volatility in food markets
• Land diversion to maize(biofuel); pressure on food prices
• Speculative selling and buying behaviors
• Wheat export restrictions by exporting countries
• Foreign exchange shortages by SSA countries
• Would African policy makers afford taking these risks?
• Can import dependence be reduced through domestic
production in SS Africa?

10. What is Africa’s wheat potential?
Is it worth the investment?
• 2012 Joint CIMMYT / IFPRI
(HarvestChoice) study
(Shiferaw et al., 2012)
• 12 SSA countries study
• Sub-Saharan Africa now
grows less than 10% of the
wheat that it could

11. Country Average
NER
(US$/ha)
Pixels with
positive
NERs (%)
Angola 275 32
Burundi 1061 100
Ethiopia 771 90
Kenya 931 92
Madagascar 731 76
Mozambique 145 21
Rwanda 1461 96
Tanzania 384 71
DRC 302 76
Uganda 994 100
Zambia 444 86
Zimbabwe 309 76
Net Economic Return under High
intensification (for pixels NER>0)
20-100% land economically
profitable for rainfed wheat
production
Source: Shiferaw et al., 2012

12. Conclusions of Shiferaw et al. Study
• Strong evidence that there is large potential for
economically profitable wheat production in SSA
• Results are generally robust to plausible shocks.
Low world prices of wheat and high fertilizer costs will
reduce the relative competitiveness of domestic production
Fall in domestic yield will reduce competitiveness
 investment in R&D to increase yields
reduce production and marketing costs
• The limiting factors are not agro-ecological, they are rather
socio-cultural, institutional and policy impediments.

13. Why isn’t Africa already growing more wheat?
• African Governments are subsidizing wheat imports;
not stimulating domestic production
• Many infrastructure bottlenecks exist in the wheat
VC; prevent farmers access to inputs, markets, and
consumers; grain marketing costs are high
• Wheat production potential varies within and across
countries, depending on agro-ecological and
socioeconomic conditions. There is no “one size fits all”
solution.

14. It is very easy to state where Africa needs “more”
• More investment in research and development …
• More research infrastructure …
• More agricultural extensions & extension staff; capacity building
• More farmer associations and farmer training …
• More awareness and support …
• More affordable inputs …
• More quality assurance in seed, fertilizers, ag.chemicals, machinery
• More machinery and small farm implements …
• More storage …
 Overhauling the whole system in a transformative way

15. So what are the key issues for Africa?
• Developing suitable technologies and varieties
• Making affordable inputs available
• Building effective and sustainable wheat seed systems
• Make wheat extension systems more effective & efficient
• Increasing productivity among smallholders
• Making wheat more competitive and profitable
• Making wheat value chains work more effectively
• Fostering regional co-operation
• Putting in place appropriate policies that foster wheat
industry; Political will to realize Africa’s wheat potential

16. Wheat is labeled Africa’s strategic commodity

17. • Landmark international conference : 250 participants
• researchers, policymakers, farmers, seed Companies from Africa,
Asia, Europe, and the Americas, agriculture ministers, AUC, UNECA

18. Significant Outcomes
• Joint African Ministers of Agriculture and
Trade (CAMAT), 29-30 Nov. 2012, Addis Ababa:
endorsed wheat as one of Africa’s strategic
commodities for achieving food and nutrition
security
• High level FARA meeting, Accra, Ghana, July
2013 – developed a strategy for promoting
African wheat production

19. Significant Outcomes
A wheat revolution is in the making:
Positive trends from 3 African countries

20. Wheat sector progress: Ethiopia
• Ethiopia has surpassed the CAADP targets of 6% average
annual agricultural growth Rate
• Strong government commitment : Wheat a priority crop
for national food security (Growth &Transformation Plan)
• The largest producer in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Wheat production has increased 400% since 2000
• Current national average yield is 2.4t / ha
• A new record harvest of > 4MMT in 2013/14 despite the
rust menace

21. Ethiopia (Contd.)
Wheat Production trend in Ethiopia(1960-2014)
• Government commitment - R&D
• IARS- CGIARs
• International Community

22. Ethiopia (Contd.)
• Research in Ethiopia is helping the world to combat UG99
– International rust screening at EIAR Debre Zeit research center
• EIAR Kulumsa Research Center – Regional Center of
Excellence for wheat research (EAAPP)
• Ethiopia (EIAR) hosted the Wheat for Food Security in
Africa conference, in partnership with CIMMYT, ICARDA,
IFPRI and the African Union, in 2012 - widely regarded as
a huge success

23. African Wheat Research Benefits the World
Example: Wheat Stem Rust
• 2 Intn’l rust screening nurseries
KARI/CIMMYT Njoro, Kenya
(BW)
EIAR/CIMMYT DZt, Ethiopia
(DW+ BW)
• Global wheat germplasm
screened: stem rust (Ug99)
• East Africa a rust hotspot: Control
of wheat rusts in Africa benefits
the entire world
Njoro, Kenya - Lines evaluated (2005-2012)
250,000+ lines from 32 countries

24. Nigeria
• In 2012/2013 , Nigerian import is estimated at 4 m tonnes
• Annual amount spent on imports ≈ US$4 billion
• Demand for wheat is 4.1 million tons in 2012/2013
• It could produce a greater % of its wheat domestically
• A ban on wheat imports in 1987 - wheat production
increased from 50,000 to 600,000 tons on 215,000 ha.
• Nigerian Government is committed to increase local
production – the target is to reduce imports by 50%, in
2015 and meet annual demand by 2017

25. Rwanda
• Rwanda has highest wheat profitability potential
(Shiferaw et al. 2012)
• Four-fold increase in wheat production since 2006
(20,000 tons to 76,000 tons in 2012)
• Gains linked to 2007 government CIP program
(improved varieties & agronomic practices)
• CIP encourages crop consolidation and
synchronization into larger units
• 50% subsidies on inputs and extension services to
participating farmers

26. Conclusion
• Time to recognize the critical importance and role that
wheat plays for food security, economic development and
social and political stability in Africa
• Current trends of increasing reliance on imports are not
sustainable and threaten nutritional and economic
security
• Big potential for economically profitable wheat
production in SSA to meet the growing demand

27. Conclusion
• Limiting factors are not agro-ecological; rather
socio-cultural, institutional and policy
impediments
• Increased measures are needed to decisively
increase wheat production, productivity and self-
sufficiency in Africa
• Green/Wheat/ revolution is possible in Africa!

28. Thanks to:
• Bekele Abeyo: CIMMYT, Ethiopia
• Bedada Girma- DRRW Coordinator, Ethiopia
• Authors references are made to their work