Drivers of change in the Blue Nile Basin pose great challenges and opportunities for Ethiopia. Over 40% of Ethiopia's population lives in poverty and relies on subsistence farming vulnerable to climate variability. Population growth is 3.2% annually, increasing pressure on scarce land and water resources. Political changes have shifted to a more market-oriented economy, but land ownership remains with the state and water agreements with downstream countries are still pending. Technological innovations are improving access to information for farmers but infrastructure expansion is still needed nationwide.

1. Drivers of change in the Blue Nile Basin
by Matthew McCartney and Tilahun Amede
Water and agriculture are central to economic development and poverty
alleviation in Ethiopia. Drivers of change pose great challenges as well as
substantial opportunities for dynamic and sustained progress.
Current situation
In Ethiopia, 35 million people (40% of population) live in acute poverty
In Ethiopia 35 million people (40% of population) live in acute poverty
and 5‐6 million need food support annually
Locally:
• Rural poor are marginalized small holders Environment/Climate Change
• Reliant on rainfed agriculture
• Short of land (farm size, quality and security of access) Increased variability in climate increases vulnerability of the poor
• Lack access to reliable water supply (and other inputs)
• Low levels of agricultural productivity Locally:
• Extremely vulnerable to hydrological variability But significant water resources • Farmers choices more difficult
(125 Bm3 = 1,400 m3 per capita) • Increased vulnerability
Nationally: available to contribute to • Possible need to change livelihood strategies (e.g. croppers to livestock)
• Land degradation is excessive (1.9 Bt topsoil lost annually) development
• Low levels of hydraulic infrastructure Basin average irrigation requirement
• Low levels of irrigation (640 ha out of potential > 5 million) y
Nationally:
12,000 1983‐2012: 8,244
ation
2021‐2050: 8,491
Requirment (m 3ha ‐1 )
11,000
11 000 2071 2100: 9,726
2071‐2100: 9 726
Average annual irriga
• Hydrological variability costs economy 1/3 growth • Considerable uncertainty about the impacts of CC 10,000
9,000
• Area suitable for rainfed agriculture may decline 8,000
• Adaptation strategies are essential 7,000
6,000
• Investment in water infrastructure (e.g. storage) critical 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Simulated change in irrigation water
requirement in the Blue Nile Basin
under a mid‐range climate scenario
(A1B) (1983‐2100)
Demographic/Societal
Population growth in Ethiopia is 3.2% per year
Locally:
• More mouths to feed
• Increased fragmentation of land
• Expansion to increasingly marginal land Political/Institutional/Legal
• More competition for scarce water and other natural resources
• Impedes the economic well being of households Ethiopia Population
Since 1988, gradual shift from controlled to more market‐oriented economy
180
Population (millions)
Nationally: 160
140 Locally:
• Agricultural land is overcrowded and over-cultivated 120
• Considerable changes in prices of foods and consumer goods
100
• Health infrastructure is not keeping pace with pop. growth 80 • Increased opportunities for off-farm activities
Current population 90 million
• Energy demand is growing rapidly 60
40 • Land ownership vested entirely in the state; security of tenure unclear
• Economic and social indicators are declining 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
• Uptake of technologies and practices affected by tenure
Forecast
Nationally:
• Ethiopian state is dominating force in defining access, distribution and tenure of land
• Internal market liberalization and devaluation of currency y
• 10 years of negotiation have, so far, failed to deliver a comprehensive
agreement on managing Nile water (Egypt and Sudan yet to sign Nile pact)
• Unilateral development of upstream water resources (e.g. Renaissance Dam)
• Considerable uncertainty about future political direction
Economic/Trade (Globalization)
Ethiopia is increasingly interlinked to the rest of the World
Comparison of foreign & domestic
Locally:
ag investment in Oromia State
• Increased demand for agricultural products
Technological Innovations
• Employment opportunities Area (ha) Projects
• Disproportionately benefits those with assets Domestic 149,148, 2,750
,
• Benefits greatest in areas with infrastructure/communications Foreign 1,444,308 1,001
• Risk of increased marginalization of the poor The Information and communications revolution in Africa boosts growth
Voice coverage gaps in Ethiopia
Nationally: Locally:
• Greater opportunity for economic growth • Increasing access to telecommunications 5% 10%
• Ethiopia commodity exchange facilitates food trade and agricultural investment • Better informed farmers are able to make better choices
• Niche overseas markets (e.g. for teff/coffee/flowers) • Need to ensure information tailored to farmers needs
• Higher risks associated with fluctuations in global financial systems 85%
• Risk of domestic markets being flooded with world market commodities
• Foreign Direct Investment in land (and water) Nationally: Existing coverage Efficient market gap Coverage gap
• Voice services expanding rapidly but internet more slowly
• In Ethiopia on ly one provider so no competition and prices still relatively high
• Investment required for expansion of “backbone network” for internet