1. Volta Storylines and Scenarios:
A mouthpiece for interventions
that enhance livelihoods
F. Kizito, J. Barron, L. Davelaar,
S. Douxchamps, O. Cofie, K. Minong , VBDC PLs
VBDC Science Workshop
July 2012

2. background
methods
project status
Study background
next steps
2

3. background
Study background
Study background
Project Objective:
To isolate storylines based on past and present research coupled with farmers
narratives, to identify common threads and interventions that could provide
various contexts for exploring AWMi for improved livelihoods of various
communities
Methodology:
oStudy is being conducted at multiple scales across the Volta Basin
oRelevant system drivers have been identified
oRisk, vulnerability and adaptive framework developed
Project Outcome:
oCompelling consistent threads of storylines and scenarios
oStorylines and scenarios yield innovative ideas which can be transformed into
realistic and viable interventions that enhance livelihoods across multiple scales
3

4. background
Study Sites
Study area covers 6 watersheds
within the Volta Basin with
some watersheds sharing the
border between with Ghana
and Burkina Faso. The chosen
watersheds currently have ongoing work within the VBDC.
(Note: Boura and Binaba are
not to scale)
Bougouriba (V4)
Boura (V3)
Binaba (V3)
4

5. background
Justification
 Drivers on the Basin are predicted to increase the frequency and severity of
extreme events such as droughts and flooding which in turn have various social
and environmental consequences
 Interventions that focus on integrated water resources management serve as
viable and promising adaptation mechanisms that reduce future risk and
vulnerability
 This calls for an assessment framework to characterize the risks associated with
the Volta Basin in order to evaluate viable options or interventions for reducing
vulnerability.
Evaluate onEvaluate ongoing projects
going projects
with associated
with associated
uncertainties
uncertainties
Characterize
Characterize
key risks and
key risks and
vulnerabilities
vulnerabilities
Evaluate viable
Evaluate viable
interventions
interventions
for reducing
for reducing
vulnerabilities
vulnerabilities
Robust
Robust
adaptive
adaptive
managemen
managemen
tt

6. background
Conceptual Framework
Determinants
Basin Drivers
Political, Economic,
Environmental,
Demographic,
Technological
External Internal
Global Drivers
Regional Drivers
Household
Level Drivers
V1
Scenarios
Worst case
Risks, Vulnerability
& Adaptation levels
Viable interventions
and modified storylines
Very high
V2
Markets
V2
Community
Drivers
Preliminary
Storylines
V3
V4
Policies
V2
Bearable
Institutions
Information
Technology
High
V3
V4
Best case
Moderate
Present case
(Status Quo)
V1
V3
V4
V5
Low
Resources
V5
VBDC Research Outcome
The process is not linear; highly depends on the drivers which yield
preliminary storylines. These are assessed against a set of
scenarios and evaluated for risk and vulnerability to yield viable
storylines and pertinent interventions
6

7. methods
Methodology
Hydrologically
corrected DEM
Spatial
Data
Database at
Watershed Level
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Gender Dimensions
Disease prevalence
Education/ literacy
Human Dev’t indicators
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Non Spatial
Data
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S
Protected Areas
Transportation/Roads
Population
Market Access
Poverty index
Arc
SWAT
Model
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B
Land Use/ Land Cover
Hydrology
Climatic data
Soils
Drought risk index
Erosion risk index
Flood exposure index
Slope
Aspect
Drainage
Weightage and Ranking
of each indicator, sub-indicator
and proxy indicator
XLRM
Framework
& Tradeoff
analysis
Combined Sensitivity index
Combined Adaptive Capability Index
Combined Risk/Exposure Index
Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping
Based on weightage accorded to Sensitivity,
Exposure and Adaptive Capability
Storylines and scenarios with
potential viable interventions
7

8. methods
The XLRM Framework
Framework structures
analysis around key
uncertainties,
adaptation options,
performance metrics,
and analytical
relationships
X: eXogenous factors (uncertain)/ Scenarios L: Levers
These are factors that are outside our control and form a
basis for “Scenarios”
These serve as management strategies or
response packages/options for example they
show:
- Current conditions
- Adaptation Options
R: Relationships
M: Performance Metrics
These are relationships or models that estimate
outcomes or performance metrics (M) for strategies or
interventions (L) under specific scenarios (X)
These are natural resources related outcomes of
interest e.g. evaluation criteria, supply reliability,
market access or environmental integrity
 The XLRM framework will aid in vulnerability assessment
8

9. methods
Tradeoff quadrant
VBDC Impact
Conducted during vulnerability assessment
High
Win-Win
Win-Lose
Low
Win-Lose
Lose-Lose
Low
Uncertainty
High

10. methods
Vulnerability Assessment Indicators
 Sensitivity Analysis: the degree to which a system is affected, either
adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli
 Exposure/Risk Analysis: the nature and degree to which a system is
exposed to significant climatic variations
 Adaptive Capacity Analysis: the ability of a system to adjust to
climate change
 Vulnerability = f (sensitivity, exposure, adaptive capacity)
10

11. methods
Watershed Sensitivity Assessment Indicators
Parameters
Direct indicators
Land Use and Land Cover (LULC)
Biophysical
Human
Soils
Proxy indicators
.
Protected area coverage
Topography (slope, aspect)
Drainage density
Dominant climate
Population
11

12. methods
Watershed Risk/Exposure Assessment Indicators
Parameters
Temperature and
rainfall
Flood
Drought/flood risk
index
Direct indicators
Mean seasonal temperature
trend
Mean seasonal rainfall trend
Death
Injured
Property loss
Occurrence
Positive annual rainfall trend
Daily precipitation
Food surplus and deficiency
Human ecology
Reproductive rate
Life expectancy
Physical ecology
Land cover density
Proxy indicators
Population pressure on
forest land
Human poverty index
Accessibility
Surface soil erosion
Landscape degradation
12

13. methods
Watershed Adaptive Capability Assessment Indicators
Parameters
Socioeconomic
Infrastructure*
Technology
Direct indicators
Proxy indicators
Human development index
Human poverty index
Gender development index
Human empowerment index
Road length
Cell phone
Electricity presence
Irrigated land area
Existence of soil and water
conservation interventions e.g.
terraced areas
 *Some of the socio-economic indicators take
into account infrastructure presence
13

14. methods
Example of XLRM Framework Applicability
Basin Drivers
Low soil fertility in
landscapes
Impacting V2, V3
and V4
communities
X L
Determinants
MoFA has
fertilizer
Subsidy and
Improved
Seed variety
arrangements
L
Emerging
Storylines
Degraded soil
and water
resources
Low crop
yields
Insufficient
livestock feed
R, M
Scenarios
Risks, Vulnerability
& Adaptation levels
Communities
embark on
Soil-water
conservation
Technologies,
receive subsidies
and improved
seed and embark
on interventions
Communities not
Taking part in
Initiatives or
Simply
opt for traditional
Low technology
methods
Less risk
and vulnerability
with higher adaptive
capacity and resilience
Increased risk and
vulnerability with
low adaptive capacity
M
Viable interventions
& Modified storylines
-Promising
outcomes:
improve soil
fertility, higher
crop yields and
sufficient livestock
feed
-Strategies that
enhance
livelihoods copied
or embraced
neighboring
communities
M
L, R, M
14

15. project status
Project Update and Status
 The VSS will continue enhancing VBDC project integration by framing research to
current project needs within the scope of the project
Last month, a field trip was conducted to capture farmers narratives in the
Northern region in the V2 sites
 The next sites to be visited include: V3 and V4 sites in Burkina Faso in July
Current work products:
 Functional Project Blog for information sharing
 Past and present literature sources on Volta Basin Research (posted on blog)
 Field photos, farmers videos with narratives/stories
 Continued research framing to current needs
15

16. project status
Emerging community dynamics
 Identified common drivers and determinants among the four
communities
o Demographic impact
o Role of technology
o Impact of climate and crop varieties
o Indigenous knowledge: e.g. use of inorganic Vs organic manures
 Identified differences in communities in terms of resources, market
access, cultural norms, coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies
16

17. project status
Conclusion
 Narratives from upcoming visit will complement on-going assessment
 Study will endeavor to incorporate essential elements of the XLRM
framework in order to ensure a holistic approach
 Vulnerability assessment maps are being developed to complement
emerging storylines and scenarios for each watershed dependent on
data availability
17

18. next steps
Identified gaps
 Emphasis should be placed on linkages between vulnerability and
resilience assessment an aspect critical for achieving the VBDC
 An integrated perspective that combines a top down and bottom up
approach should be sought to incorporate farmers narratives with other
policy and biophysical inputs
18

19. next steps
Next steps
Complete field visits for V3 and V4 sites
Continue conducting vulnerability assessment as a proxy for resilience
evaluation in the basin
 Relate resilience to emerging storylines an aspect that would help
VBDC project integration by framing research to current project needs
19

20. 20

21. background
Conceptual Framework
Global drivers
Determinants
• Farmers narrative
• Past research
• Literature
• VBDC research
STORYLINES
SCENARIOS
Vulnerability/
Resilience
assessment
• XLRM
• Trade-off analysis
• vulnerability maps
Priorities / viable interventions
evaluation
Robust adaptive management / VBDC outcomes