This document describes a 160-year systems experiment conducted in Australia to test different agricultural management practices and their effects over long periods of time. It discusses using a "systems methodology" approach of testing two broad treatments - a control and a "best-bet" treatment that utilizes whatever practices are needed. The treatments are not individual interventions but rather combinations of adopted practices and decision-making approaches. The document suggests Africa RISING, an initiative in the Ethiopian Highlands, has adopted this design. It presents diagrams mapping the trajectory of systems from degraded to improved states based on increasing soil carbon, plant available water capacity, and other factors. It raises the question of whether a similar long-term study could achieve comparable results in 30 years in

1. 160-year systems experiment in Australia
Kirkegaard and Hunt, 2010
Is this where we
are in Sub Saharan
Africa?
Nationalaveragewheat
Can we
reach
here?

2. Systems methodology
1.Control
2.Best-bet (whatever it takes)
2 treatments
• NOT multi-factorial, statistical design – not possible!
• Treatments are not individual interventions
• The treatments are how/what is adopted, in what
combinations and how decisions made
• Follow trajectories
• Africa RISING – Ethiopian Highlands adopting this design
• Other reactions – hahahahaha!! Haha ha!

3. A
Soil water
management
Business
Skills
Information and
knowledge
High soil carbon
Degraded
Current
Greater PAWC
Stock management
Organic residue
Deeper-rooted species
Fallow
Zero till
Reduced tillage
System
improvement
trajectory
C
B
W
I
B
Ellis (unpublished)
WIB-space
PAWC = Plant
Available Water
Capacity

4. +
A
Degraded/poor
use of resources
Current practice
C
B
W
I
B
Ellis (unpublished)
WIB-space
Irrigated
Rain fed
Ag. Wat.
Man.
Land use
design
High water
productivity

6. 100 years
(Australia)
v
30 years?
(West Africa?)
v