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Vietnam--
an Emerging Tiger?
    November 9, 2011
Geography


• Extending 1,650 km north
  to south, Vietnam is only 50
  km across at its narrowest
  point
• Low, flat delta in south and
  north; central highlands;
  hilly, mountainous in far
  north and northwest
CC


• Ho Chi Minh City 6 million

• HANOI (capital) 2.7 million

• Haiphong 1.9 million

• Da Nang 807,000 (2009)
Population

•    1   China       1.341
•    2   India       1.195
•    3   U.S.          311
•    4   Indonesia     238
•    5   Brazil        191
•    6   Pakistan      175
•    7   Nigeria       158
•    8   Bangladesh 150
•    9   Russia        142
•   10   Japan         127
•   11   Mexico       112
•   12   Philippines    94
•   13   Vietnam        90
The People


• Age Structure: 25% 14 and
  under ; 75% born after
  1975
• Median Age: 27.8 years
• Ethnic Viet 86%
• Religion—Buddhist 9.3%,
  Catholic 6.7%, none
  80.8%, but……
Labor Force


•   46.21 million (2010 est*.)
•   Agriculture: 54%
•   Industry: 20%
•   Services: 26% (2009)
•   Country comparison to the
    world: 13

           *CIA World Factbook 2011
System of Government


• Communist State
• Party Congress 1/11
• Prime Minister Nguyen Tan
  DUNG (since 27 June
  2006) will continue
• CPV will continue with its
  grip on power
Looking toward the future


         • “Vietnam is one of the best-
           performing developing
           economies in the world. It is
           going through a far-reaching
           transformation from an inward-
           looking planned economy to
           one that is globalized and
           market-based. It has the
           potential to be one of the great
           success stories in
           development.” World Bank
Growth!


• Real income has grown an
  average of 7.2 percent per year
  over the last decade

•   GDP per capita has gone from
    $189 in 1993 to $1,113 in 2010.

• Vietnam’s poverty rate has
  fallen from 58 percent in 1993
  to 10.6 percent in 2010.
Economic Milestones


• 1986 Doi Moi reforms proclaimed
• 1995 U.S. and Vietnam reestablish diplomatic relations;
  Vietnam joins ASEAN
• 2001 Vietnam and U.S. sign BTA
• 2005 PM. Phan Van Khai visits the U.S.
• 2007 Vietnam becomes the 150th member of the WTO,
  Commerce Secretary leads trade mission to Vietnam
• 2008 PM Nguyen Tan Dung visits the U.S.
• 2010 Vietnam becomes full member of TPP negotiations
Economy


• GDP—6.7% (2010)

• 7-7.5% (2011-15 target)

• GDP -- $102 billion (2010)

• GE -- $156 billion (2009)
Growth vs. Inflation
Macroeconomic Instability


The GVN has favored economic growth over macro
stability.

• Growing inflation (12% in December 2010)

• Weakening currency/ Low foreign currency reserves

• SOE Reform (Vinashin)
State Owned Enterprises




Ownership Component of GDP
     about 34%!
Challenges


• Infrastructure (ports,
  airports, roads, power,
  and HR)
• Inflation
• Human rights
• Corruption
• Red tape
• Environment
Transparency International   Rank   Confidence
Corruption Perception
Index 2010
Singapore                    1      9.3
Hong Kong                    13     8.4
U.S.                         22     7.1
Taiwan                       33     5.8
South Korea                  39     5.4
Malaysia                     56     4.4
Thailand                     78     3.5
Indonesia                    110    2.8
Vietnam                      116    2.7
Philippines                  134    2.4
Education reform may be the
 biggest and most important
    structural challenge.
Trading Partner


• The GVN is committed to deepening its trade relations with
  the United States.

• Engaged partner in Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) talks
  and our bilateral Trade and Investment Framework
  Agreement (TIFA) negotiations.

• In 2010, Vietnam moved forward on its commitment to WTO
  obligations by implementing laws and regulations to increase
  compliance of local industries.
TPP


• In November 2010, Vietnam joined the United
  States, Peru, Chile, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei,
  New Zealand, and Australia to participate as a full
  member in the Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership

• TPP is a high-standard, 21st century Asia-Pacific
  free trade agreement.
Best Prospects
                      Country Commercial Guide Vietnam
                                    2011

•   Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution
•   Telecommunications Equipment and Services
•   Oil and Gas Machinery and Services
•   Information Technology (IT) Hardware and Software
•   Airport, Ground Support Equipment, ATM Systems, etc.
•   Environmental and Pollution Control Equipment and Services
•   Medical Equipment
•   Safety and Security
•   Education and Training
•   Franchising
•   Plastic Materials, Equipment and Machinery
•   Architecture, Construction and Engineering
How to contact us


  U.S. Commercial Service Vietnam
         Tel: {64 4 3850-5199}
 Email Hanoi: Sarah.kemp@trade.gov
Email HCMC: James.mayfield@trade.gov
       www.buyusa.gov/vietnam


            www.export.gov
Myanmar   Brunei   Laos Cambodia
  1%        1%      2%     4%
                              Singapore
                                 7%


Vietnam
  35%                   Malaysia
                          8%

                        Philippines
                           12%


                   Thailand
      Indonesia
                     12%
         18%
U.S. Exports to Vietnam
                   Grow by 19% in 2010!

•   Vehicles:     445,968
•   Machinery:    368,391
•   Iron/Steel:   236,820
•   Meat:         221,340
•   Cotton:       171,770
•   Plastics:     150,012
•   Feed:         134,180
Environmental Issues


• Logging and slash-and-burn
  agricultural
• Water pollution and over fishing
  threaten marine life populations
• Groundwater contamination
• Growing urban industrialization
  and population migration are
  rapidly degrading environment
  in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City
Opportunities: Energy

       • Double-digit increases in
         consumption
       • State owned EVN
         monopoly
       • Growing potential for
         private sector involvement
       • Renewables…
Opportunities: Waste


• Production and
  consumption growth
• Need U.S. tech and
  expertise
• Modernization goals for
  2025 and 2050
Opportunities: Water


• Key issue, growing
  challenge
• USTDA grants
• Measurement, monitoring,
  flood remediation and
  control
• Treatment and purification,
  water resource
  management
Opportunities:
    Green Building,
Architecture and Design

        • Crane-spotting
        • If it ain’t broke, knock it
          down
        • Short time horizon
        • Green is coming
        • Internationally driven
Summary Points on the
                  Environment Sector

• Vietnam has environmental issues, but awareness is
  growing

• Difficult business environment, but opportunities
  abound
U.S./Vietnam Collaboration

        • Science and technology
        • Technical assistance and
          capacity building
        • Water management
        • Climate change
        • Nuclear safety
        • HIV/AIDS, AI, etc.
Financing


•   ODA
•   World Bank
•   Asian Development Bank
•   Emerging Private Sector
•   Ex-Im Bank and OPIC…
Imports from Vietnam 2009


• 49.7 % APPAREL

• 11.3% FURNITURE
                  http://www.stopfakes.gov/int_ipr_ap.asp

• 10.5% FOOTWEAR

•   Grand Total $12.3 billion

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Don nay

  • 1. Vietnam-- an Emerging Tiger? November 9, 2011
  • 2. Geography • Extending 1,650 km north to south, Vietnam is only 50 km across at its narrowest point • Low, flat delta in south and north; central highlands; hilly, mountainous in far north and northwest
  • 3. CC • Ho Chi Minh City 6 million • HANOI (capital) 2.7 million • Haiphong 1.9 million • Da Nang 807,000 (2009)
  • 4. Population • 1 China 1.341 • 2 India 1.195 • 3 U.S. 311 • 4 Indonesia 238 • 5 Brazil 191 • 6 Pakistan 175 • 7 Nigeria 158 • 8 Bangladesh 150 • 9 Russia 142 • 10 Japan 127 • 11 Mexico 112 • 12 Philippines 94 • 13 Vietnam 90
  • 5. The People • Age Structure: 25% 14 and under ; 75% born after 1975 • Median Age: 27.8 years • Ethnic Viet 86% • Religion—Buddhist 9.3%, Catholic 6.7%, none 80.8%, but……
  • 6. Labor Force • 46.21 million (2010 est*.) • Agriculture: 54% • Industry: 20% • Services: 26% (2009) • Country comparison to the world: 13 *CIA World Factbook 2011
  • 7. System of Government • Communist State • Party Congress 1/11 • Prime Minister Nguyen Tan DUNG (since 27 June 2006) will continue • CPV will continue with its grip on power
  • 8. Looking toward the future • “Vietnam is one of the best- performing developing economies in the world. It is going through a far-reaching transformation from an inward- looking planned economy to one that is globalized and market-based. It has the potential to be one of the great success stories in development.” World Bank
  • 9. Growth! • Real income has grown an average of 7.2 percent per year over the last decade • GDP per capita has gone from $189 in 1993 to $1,113 in 2010. • Vietnam’s poverty rate has fallen from 58 percent in 1993 to 10.6 percent in 2010.
  • 10. Economic Milestones • 1986 Doi Moi reforms proclaimed • 1995 U.S. and Vietnam reestablish diplomatic relations; Vietnam joins ASEAN • 2001 Vietnam and U.S. sign BTA • 2005 PM. Phan Van Khai visits the U.S. • 2007 Vietnam becomes the 150th member of the WTO, Commerce Secretary leads trade mission to Vietnam • 2008 PM Nguyen Tan Dung visits the U.S. • 2010 Vietnam becomes full member of TPP negotiations
  • 11. Economy • GDP—6.7% (2010) • 7-7.5% (2011-15 target) • GDP -- $102 billion (2010) • GE -- $156 billion (2009)
  • 13. Macroeconomic Instability The GVN has favored economic growth over macro stability. • Growing inflation (12% in December 2010) • Weakening currency/ Low foreign currency reserves • SOE Reform (Vinashin)
  • 14. State Owned Enterprises Ownership Component of GDP about 34%!
  • 15. Challenges • Infrastructure (ports, airports, roads, power, and HR) • Inflation • Human rights • Corruption • Red tape • Environment
  • 16.
  • 17. Transparency International Rank Confidence Corruption Perception Index 2010 Singapore 1 9.3 Hong Kong 13 8.4 U.S. 22 7.1 Taiwan 33 5.8 South Korea 39 5.4 Malaysia 56 4.4 Thailand 78 3.5 Indonesia 110 2.8 Vietnam 116 2.7 Philippines 134 2.4
  • 18. Education reform may be the biggest and most important structural challenge.
  • 19. Trading Partner • The GVN is committed to deepening its trade relations with the United States. • Engaged partner in Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) talks and our bilateral Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) negotiations. • In 2010, Vietnam moved forward on its commitment to WTO obligations by implementing laws and regulations to increase compliance of local industries.
  • 20. TPP • In November 2010, Vietnam joined the United States, Peru, Chile, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, New Zealand, and Australia to participate as a full member in the Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership • TPP is a high-standard, 21st century Asia-Pacific free trade agreement.
  • 21. Best Prospects Country Commercial Guide Vietnam 2011 • Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution • Telecommunications Equipment and Services • Oil and Gas Machinery and Services • Information Technology (IT) Hardware and Software • Airport, Ground Support Equipment, ATM Systems, etc. • Environmental and Pollution Control Equipment and Services • Medical Equipment • Safety and Security • Education and Training • Franchising • Plastic Materials, Equipment and Machinery • Architecture, Construction and Engineering
  • 22. How to contact us U.S. Commercial Service Vietnam Tel: {64 4 3850-5199} Email Hanoi: Sarah.kemp@trade.gov Email HCMC: James.mayfield@trade.gov www.buyusa.gov/vietnam www.export.gov
  • 23. Myanmar Brunei Laos Cambodia 1% 1% 2% 4% Singapore 7% Vietnam 35% Malaysia 8% Philippines 12% Thailand Indonesia 12% 18%
  • 24. U.S. Exports to Vietnam Grow by 19% in 2010! • Vehicles: 445,968 • Machinery: 368,391 • Iron/Steel: 236,820 • Meat: 221,340 • Cotton: 171,770 • Plastics: 150,012 • Feed: 134,180
  • 25.
  • 26. Environmental Issues • Logging and slash-and-burn agricultural • Water pollution and over fishing threaten marine life populations • Groundwater contamination • Growing urban industrialization and population migration are rapidly degrading environment in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City
  • 27. Opportunities: Energy • Double-digit increases in consumption • State owned EVN monopoly • Growing potential for private sector involvement • Renewables…
  • 28. Opportunities: Waste • Production and consumption growth • Need U.S. tech and expertise • Modernization goals for 2025 and 2050
  • 29. Opportunities: Water • Key issue, growing challenge • USTDA grants • Measurement, monitoring, flood remediation and control • Treatment and purification, water resource management
  • 30. Opportunities: Green Building, Architecture and Design • Crane-spotting • If it ain’t broke, knock it down • Short time horizon • Green is coming • Internationally driven
  • 31. Summary Points on the Environment Sector • Vietnam has environmental issues, but awareness is growing • Difficult business environment, but opportunities abound
  • 32. U.S./Vietnam Collaboration • Science and technology • Technical assistance and capacity building • Water management • Climate change • Nuclear safety • HIV/AIDS, AI, etc.
  • 33. Financing • ODA • World Bank • Asian Development Bank • Emerging Private Sector • Ex-Im Bank and OPIC…
  • 34. Imports from Vietnam 2009 • 49.7 % APPAREL • 11.3% FURNITURE http://www.stopfakes.gov/int_ipr_ap.asp • 10.5% FOOTWEAR • Grand Total $12.3 billion

Notas del editor

  1. Let me start with this slide, which gives the topography of Vietnam without political borders. Many of you will remember the pre-1975 maps of the two Vietnams—North and South, with a line in the middle at the Demilitarized Zone.. Now of course, there is one, united country.You’ll see in the North the green area which is the Red River delta where the capitol Hanoi is located. This area is where the Vietnamese have been growing and harvesting rice for centuries and is the area where the North Vietnamese culture was formed. Also note that the North borders China. After many wars and skirmishes, Northern Vietnam was occupied and ruled by the Chinese for a 1,000 years. Neither China nor Vietnam has forgotten this shared history to this day.Similarly, in the South, the green area is the Mekong River delta just North of which is Ho Chi Minh City, or Saigon as it is still called by many. The Mekong Delta area has been the rice growing area in the South for centuries , but in addition, Saigon has been the hub for domestic and interregional trade for centuries. Until today, HCMC remains the most vibrant trade and industrial center of Vietnam., though Hanoi and its adjacent provinces are also becoming increasingly industrialized.
  2. One thing to note about Vietnam is the demographics:As this slide notes, 75% of the population was born after 1975, the date the so called “American War” ended. Today, especially amongst the young, America and Americans are popular and respected. I am told that it is very rare for an American to get anything but a warm welcome in today’s Vietnam.As far as religion goes, though only a relatively small percentage are officially counted as Buddhists, Catholics, etc., a very high percentage of Vietnamese do follow traditional family and community religious and social rituals, as a legacy of long and deep influence of China on Vietnam.For example, the Lunar New Year holidays , called “Tet” in Vietnam, is taken much more seriously in Vietnam than in most places in China. Also, based on the influence of Confucius and Mandarins, Vietnam until today is a very hierarchical society where the decisions are often made at the top.