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American Recessional?  The Crisis of Globalization Ottawa, February 23, 2009
The end of the Age of Leverage
The end of the Age of Leverage ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Global imbalances
Fuelled a property bubble and bust
Not Great Depression 2.0 … Yet
Not Great Depression 2.0 … Yet ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
But a Great Recession … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The new policies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
(Out of the) ballpark figures ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Who pays? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The perils of protection ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Geopolitical implications?
1. Even faster Chinese catch-up?
2. Like £, $ to lose reserve status?
But God still watches over …
1. Crisis could  slow  catch-up
2. And dollar has rallied
Along with US Treasuries
Why? It’s not just a global crisis
It’s a crisis of globalization
And that hits others harder ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
But worse for allies than rivals? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
1. The indebted Anglosphere Canada Australia Britain USA
Canadian virtue: Its own reward ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2. A tale of two Asias ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
3. The centrifugal Eurozone ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Europe’s bank nightmare
4. Eastern Europe’s crisis
The political consequences … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The bluffer: Putin at Davos ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why he’s bluffing Russia will run out of reserves in just 14 months if it keeps spending them on currency intervention at current pace
The real challenge? Wen at Davos ,[object Object],[object Object]
Or maybe not ,[object Object]
The People’s Daily , Feb. 20, 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 

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