Presentation by Keynote speaker Mark Barry at the joint Cardiff Civic Society/Institute of Wales #CDF2026 event held at the Royal College of Music and Drama, Cardiff 8 October 2013. The event was organised to promote debate about Cardiff's Local Development Plan (LDP). Transcripts and videos from the event are available at http://www.cardiffcivicsociety.org. For details email vice-chair@cardiffcivicsociety.org

1. )(
#CDF2026
Final view of
Cardiff’s
LDP
Cardiff
Civic
Society
Cymdeithas
Ddinesig
Caerdydd
1Wednesday, 9 October 13

2. )(
#CDF2026
Mark Barry
Consultant
Transport for
Cardiff
2Wednesday, 9 October 13

3. Mark Barry
M&G Barry Consulting Ltd
Cardiff Civic Society 8th October 20137th October
V 1.0
The Metro Consortium
A Cardiff City Region Metro:
transform | regenerate | connect
3Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 1Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
Since then….
 Valley Lines Electrification
 GWML Wires to Swansea
 City Region Debate
 SEWTA Metro+
 Metro Discussions
 Task Forces
 Metro Consortium
Now, new report for Minister….
In 2011…
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
Background…
4Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 2Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
The Metro Consortium...
CAPITA SYMONDS
5Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 3Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
Cardiff/ValeGwent Valleys
Change in GVA by UK Nation and Region
70
90
110
130
150
170
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
East Midlands
East of England
London
North East
North West
Northern Ireland
Scotland
South East
South West
Wales
West Midlands
Yorkshire and the Humber
 GVA /head in Wales lowest in the UK at ~74% of UK average, the valleys <60%
 Aggregate figure for Cardiff City Region ~80%
 Cardiff falling behind cities across the UK (102& vs >120% in Belfast, Edinburgh, etc)
 Also, lowest levels of M&A, listed companies, exports, R&D......
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
The Economic Challenge...
Wales !
“It’s the economy
stupid…..”
6Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 4Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
The trend: Cardiff Vs Other UK cities, GVA 2001 – 2011
Cardiff lags behind the main regional centres
“It’s the economy
stupid…..”
7Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 5Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
Cardiff City Region, Snapshot – to inform Metro Planning…
Demographics
Employment
Commuting
Development Opportunities
8Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 6Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
Regional population over 1.4M…
 Cardiff rapid population rise >10% since 2001; most dense in region
 to ~430,000 by 2030 from 348,000 in 2012, only 310,000 in 2001
 More modest or zero growth elsewhere in region
9Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 7Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
Workplace employment…
 1/3 of region’s workforce (210,000) work in Cardiff (stats wales)
 80% net regional increase since 2001 from 180,000 to 210,000
 Small rise, no change or falls elsewhere in region
But…..
10Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 8Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
More jobs in Cardiff 2011 Vs 2001
But lower GVA/Capita …?
From 110% GVA/capita Vs UK average in 2001 to 102% in 2011
11Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 9Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
The Future: High Value Job Growth, 2012-2017
Cardiff lags behind the main regional centres
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Growthinhighvaluejobs,2012-2017
Source: Jones Lang LaSallle & Oxford Economics, 2013
12Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 10Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
 Increasing levels of commuting to/in Cardiff
-Expect 110,000 daily i/w commuters by 2026 Vs 80,000 today
-Expect >150,000 within the city today by 2026 Vs 120,000 today
 30,000 into Newport….but not to city centre!
 Commuting flows between all local authorities
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
Commuting…
13Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 11Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
Commuting Vs other UK cities/regions…
14Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 12Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
City Region
“Ideopolis”
Good
Transport
Connectivity
Access to
Capital
High Quality
Urban
Environment
Leading
University &
Skilled
Workforce
Entrepreneurs
Ideas &
Opportunities
Diverse,
Multicultural,
Critical Mass
Population
Leadership
&
Vision
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
Ingredients of a successful economy…
The Work Foundation, “Welcome to the Ideopolis”
Richard Florida, “Rise of the Creative Classes”
EU, “State of European Cities”
The Centre for Cities
15Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 13Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
Metro Phase 1: Valley Lines Electrification by 2020…
“phase 1” of Metro
is VLE and CASR
TBC…by 2020?
16Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 14Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
Only ~40% pop within 1.2Km of station post VLE/CASR…
An opportunity for Metro to connect the
most densely populated “unconnected”
parts of the region
Source: Capita Symonds, Metro Consortium
17Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 15Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
Road network experiences congestion at key times…
An opportunity for Metro to help
address peak time congestion?
Source: SEWTA, ARUP
18Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 16Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
Metro
What is it?
Connect more people,
to more places
and also to…
Enable Development
Stimulate Regeneration
Deliver Modal Shift
19Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 17Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
Metro – a catalyst for investment?
20Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 18Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
 Strategic Developments in Cardiff
-NW//N/NE Cardiff, St Mellons, Bay, City Centre, etc
-150,000 people with no rail access
-40,000+ new homes to 2026
 Ebbw Vale Enterprise Zone
 Regeneration/development in Pontypridd
 Newport City Centre
 Aggregate new valley housing in fewer higher density
locations near Metro stations
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
Some development opportunities…
21Wednesday, 9 October 13

22. Central Cardiff EZ
22Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 20Metro Presentation
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V1.2 Sep 2013
Merthyr Tydfil – accessible housing?
23Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 21Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
Focussed economic interventions…
NW Cardiff /Lower RCT & St Mellons
Pontypridd Newport
 most accessible location in 1.4M City Region
 Best location for access to London/Heathrow
 Location for Corporate HQ, Financial Services, etc
Public sector economic interventions and support to focus on locations
most likely to engage private sector & create most jobs:
Ebbw Vale AirportBridgend
Cardiff Enterprise Zone & Bay…
24Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 22Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect
Benefits the whole region…
 Connected City Region
 Enable a coherent city region plan
 Catalyst for development & regeneration
 Reverse a long term decline
 Modal shift and CO2 reductions
 Plan out to 2030
New Metro report now with the Minister for consideration
25Wednesday, 9 October 13

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contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 23Metro Presentation
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V1.2 Sep 2013
Some challenges
Vision
Ambition
Realism
Governance
Organisation
Funding
26Wednesday, 9 October 13

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…not a new idea, from, “South Wales Needs a Plan”, by H A
Marquand published by George Allen & Unwin Ltd in 1936!
Seems even more appropriate today…!
“ … a more rapid movement of population up and down the valleys must be encouraged,
so as to save the inhabitants of the northern towns from economic isolation. How that
rapidity of movement can best be secured should be decided by an authority responsible
for a co-ordinated transport service throughout the Region. No such authority exists.
“With rapid transport, it should be no more difficult for workers from Aberdare or Ebbw
Vale to reach Cardiff or Newport than it is for clerks to travel to their daily work in the City
of London from Wimbledon or Ealing”
…” political and social institutions have failed to adopt themselves with sufficient rapidity
to the economic changes that have taken place. One small symptom of this is the
maintenance of local government boundaries which have long lost their significance and
of authorities which are inadequate to the larger tasks which need to be undertaken.”
27Wednesday, 9 October 13

28. This document contains company confidential and/or proprietary information. Do not copy, distribute or otherwise communicate the
contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 25Metro Presentation
CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting
V1.2 Sep 2013
For further information please contact:
Mark Barry
T: +44 (0)7771 893292
E: mark@mgbarryconsulting.com
W: www.mgbarryconsulting.com
Twitter: www.twitter.com/markdafyddbarry
M&G Barry Consulting Ltd
Contact Details
Mark Barry was born and grew up in Cardiff. He left in 1981 to study at Manchester
University where he graduated in Physics and The Analysis of Science and Technology in
1985 before working in London and overseas in the IT/Software industry. From 1997, Mark
spent five years in Management Consultancy working for the PA Consulting Group leading
projects for blue chip and government clients in both Europe and North America. In 2003 he
founded and was, until 2009, Chief Executive of Cardiff Biotech Company, Q Chip Ltd.
Mark now has his own consultancy business offering services including strategic economic
and transport policy development, programme management, business strategy, and fund
raising, especially for new technology companies.
Mark is the author of the paper, “A Metro for Wales’ Capital City Region – Connecting
Cardiff, Newport and The Valleys” published by the Cardiff Business Partnership and the
Institute of Welsh Affairs in February 2011. He also wrote “A Cardiff City Region Metro:
transform | regenerate | connect” with The Metro Consortium.
www.metroconsortium.com
28Wednesday, 9 October 13

29. )(
#CDF2026
For
information
contact
Cardiff
Civic
Society
Cymdeithas
Ddinesig
Caerdydd
www.cardiffcivicsociety.org
TW @cardiffcivicsoc
www.iwa.org.uk
TW @iwa
29Wednesday, 9 October 13