This document provides an overview of the Florida real estate market and opportunities for investment. It notes that property values have declined significantly since 2006, with some properties available for 25 cents on the dollar of their 2006 prices. It highlights several South Florida communities as areas with growing populations and limited developable land remaining, suggesting future price appreciation. Examples are given of specific investment properties purchased through short sales and foreclosures that have yielded high capitalization rates and projected returns.
2. US values have declined 50% since the peak of 2006 Short Sales and Foreclosures sliced this another 50%!!! That means that there is an opportunity to purchase real estate for 25 cents on the dollar!! Opportunity
3. The US dollar has also dropped significantly against many foreign currencies. Today, in Canadian currency, you are buying at less than 25 cents on the dollar compared to 2006/2007 sales prices !!! You are now buying property at the equivalent of 1987 prices.
4. Think of the boom/bust cycle as a pendulum. In 2002, Florida prices started to escalate quickly and peaked in 2006. Prices then started to drop as rapidly as they went up so that by 2008 they were back to 2002 values. The problem is that the DROP did not stop!!! In 2010, property further decreased from 2002 values all the way down to 1987 values!!This is unnatural behavior for real estate in the USA and has created a very lucrative investment opportunity The Values are now 25 cents or less on the dollar (much further than they should have gone). A simple return to a balanced market offers significant capital gains. Boom / Bust – Why Now is the Time!
5. In the last 40 years, Florida has doubled in population and continues to grow. US census records show from 2000-2010 increase in population has been 17.6%. Florida is not like Michigan, Ohio and other Northwest and Midwest states where population is decreasing due to the declining industrial base Florida has a broad service/tourism and technology based economy. It is not subject to international manufacturing pressure. Historical price appreciation of real estate in Florida from 1960-2005 averaged 5-7% per year. This is more than twice the national average. South Florida has an added advantage over its competitors; ie Vegas and Arizona. Think of South Florida like a Hamburger…. There is water on the East and the Everglades on the West – there is hardly any land left to build!!! As population increases, this will further stimulate demand as supply is naturally limited. Vegas is a prime example where there is too much inventory due to buildings being built outwards away from the core into vast dessert lands that don’t seem to end. Why Florida???
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7. The most popular areas in the US for foreign investment are Florida, Texas, California and Arizona Out of these states, Florida had the highest rate of foreign investment with 23% of the market Out of all Florida regions, the Miami/Fort Lauderdale region had the highest overall market share with 27% of all purchases in the state This study also showed Florida as the top choice for Canadian buyers (35.4%), European buyers (32.6%), UK Buyers (46.8%), and Latin America (45%) Want the article? go to http://www.cheapfloridarealty.com/wp-content/uploads/A_world_of_opportunities.pdf According to a recent study by Lawrence Yun, PHD Senior V.P. and chief economist for the National Association of Realtors:
8. ** Notice below that the sales price is $220,000 in 2006! The sales price on this property is now only $40,000!!!
9. John Smith purchases a Condo at $45,000 all in (repairs, closing, etc). Rent is $1200 per month Maintenance, taxes and property management = $561 per month (this include a price reduction on taxes from 2010 in the past slide to $1096 [yes, we appeal taxes too!]) NOI = Income ($1200) – Expenses (561) = $639 $639 per month or $7668 per year Cap Rate (measures purchase price to net operating income). In South Florida 7-8% is good. Cap rate – $7668/ $45,000 = 17% Cap Rate Cap Rate
10. IRR (Internal Rate of Return) is used to calculate the true rate of return over the life of the investment. It starts where NOI and cap rate ends. Take the NOI of the prior example (7668 pa), now assume we will hold the property for five years and sell for $90,000 . Assume further there is no increase in net operating income (of course there will be). IRR = the profit from all cash flow streams during the life of the investment. As a simplified example, lets take the following cash flows: 5 years x 7668(NOI) + $90,000 - $45000 = $83,340/5 years = $16668 per year = 16668/45,000 = 37% IRR. In effect, this means a 37% annual return on your investment in total! By the way, we are being conservative with a sales price of only $90,000 – remember this sold for $220,000 only a couple years back! Total Profit
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12. Due to a major drop in supply and increase for demand, The market is correcting itself
13. This is raw data from the previous chart and shows that the supply has dropped from 845 to 404. Furthermore, the months of inventory has dropped from 57 to 10. A balanced market is considered 5-10 months inventory. We are entering this phase and we are seeing price increases as a result.
14. For lower priced properties (under $100,000), we are already past the point of a balanced market (7 months inventory) and we are seeing multiple offers. You can also see that there is a much smaller supply of the lower priced condos in this example (100 vs 400). If you want to acquire highly discounted real estate in good to better areas, it requires fast and timelyexpertise knowledge (it is not uncommon to have 20+ offers the same day of listing in this market.
15. Let’s compare this date to Sep 2011 as it gets even more interesting……. Absorption rate has gone from 2% in 2008 to 10% in 2011 with only 2 months inventory left!! It is important to note this is based on present inventory. Also note that Property count went From 800 in 2008 down to 300 in 2011. Remember I said that 5-10 months of inventory is considered a healthy market; this is 2 months inventory – an incredibly healthy market.
20. ***Please note: I am not a tax advisor and in no way do I represent myself as a tax expert. Below is some common knowledge about taxes in the USA I believe are true but in no way do I warrant its accuracy. Please consult with your tax professional for information that applies to your particular situation. ITIN = Person EIN = LLC/Corporation Taxes for Canadians
21. Any individual who is not eligible to obtain a Social Security Number (SSN),must furnish an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number. This individual will need to apply for an ITIN on Form W-7 The ITIN is for federal tax purposes only. It does not entitle you to social security benefits and does not change your immigration status or your right to work in the United States. ITIN – Individual Taxpayer Identification Number
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23. An Employer Identification Number (EIN) is also known as a Federal Tax Identification Number, and is used to identify a business entity Having an EIN will allow you LLC/Corporation to open up a bank account, acquire business credit, file a tax return, etc. Applying for an EIN is a free service offered by the IRS. Beware of web sites on the internet that charge for this free service. If you apply online, your EIN will be issued immediately! Click here to apply online EIN – Employment Identification Number
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25. When you sell your property as a Canadian, you will be subject to FIRPTA tax. Also known as Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax, it is required that 10% of gross sales price is withheld for taxes. You can avoid paying this tax upfront by holding a withholding certificate Potentially avoid Firpta if you have LLC + EIN You must also report the capital gain, in Canadian dollars, on your Canadian tax return. Tax credits are usually issued under the Canada/USA tax treaty Canada/USA Tax Facts
26. U.S based rental income inccurs 30% withholding tax To get around this, KPMG recommends to file the U.S return with the election to pay tax on NET rental income You may be able to get around this with a withholding certificate or if you own a corporation. Rental Income
27. The maximum U.S tax rate on capital gains for assets held for more than 12 months is 15%. U.S. tax on the sale of U.S. property will generate a foreign tax credit that can be used to reduce the Canadian tax on the sale. Property Taxes are based on MARKET VALUE. You can apply for a reduction in taxes if you believe your property is above market value (from experience, Broward county is very fair, Miami/Dade county usually requires you to apply for a reduction). **** This reduction will PERMANENTLY reduce your tax rate as it will set the clock back and increase tentatively at a lower % increase throughout time. Capital Gains
28. Regular capital gain rates will be 15% This does not imply to tax write-offs! SHORT TERM gains (under 12 months) are taxed at your ordinary income rates. Example: Jason purchases a condo for $80,000 and sells for $140,000 3 years later. 60,000 Capital gains (c) – 30,000 depreciation (d) = 30,000(0.15 tax rate) + 30,000 (0.25 tax rate) = 4500 + 7500 = 12,000 Investment real-estate gains are tricky since they can be taxed in two different ways……
29. Own in your name – less fees/paperwork – liability insurance Own in LLC – separate entity/guard personal assets I love applying for an LLC and an EIN electronically online. You can literally go to www.sunbiz.org and file your own LLC in Florida and get your EIN number instantaneously! Own in Syndication/Structured entities – larger investors/economies of scale Ownership
32. Detail all the critical dates (inspection, title commitment, closing, etc).Due Diligence clauses: protect against unknown risks at time of contracting. Includes such things as lead based paint, mold, condo approval issues, structural and hidden repairs, title defects, protection of your deposit, undisclosed liens on the property and many other potential issues.
33. Buyer has the right, and it is the seller’s duty to provide the condominium documents/articles of incorporation/bylaws. A buyer has 3 days from receipt of these documents to review and cancel without penalty if they do not agree with them. When a buyer ASKS for these in a contract and the seller does not provide (95%+ sellers usually never do), the seller runs the risk that the buyer can cancel at anytime and the seller will not prevail in any action to keep the deposit. This will keep the possibility open in case of future dispute. This is an easily achieved advantage to the buyer due to the fast past nature of paperwork in distressed real estate, make sure you put this on your contract!
34. Many listing agents and Condo Associations will try to tag on fees. Make sure the contract is written properly! Avoid those fees… Hello X Thank you. However, I must say that the fees charged are not legal. The maximum for an application fee is $100/person and estoppel fee is $150. This is according to Florida Statutes, Ch. 718, The Statute governing Condominiums. You can consult an attorney who can easily look this up for you. This will be an issue with my buyer and needs to be resolved.
35. Hello Jesse, Per the seller's addendum the buyer had a 10 day inspection period from the acceptance date. The seller is stating that the inspection period had passed from time of written noticeand your buyer will not receive their EMD. Heartlessly yours, Mrs. Nasty She tried to keep my deposit…
36. Dear Ms. X WITHOUT PREDUJICE 1. I will be filing an EDO dispute with FREC if I do not receive a positive response tomorrow on the release of deposit to the buyer. 2. My attorney will be looking at contract for other issues as well. 3. The notice was provided to you , in writing, via email on Monday, May 24, 2011 at 2:27pm. Seller signed on May 19th, 2011. This is 5 days, much less than 10. They are incorrect. We respectfully request the request for cancellation be signed immediately to avoid legal action. Please remember, that in any legal proceeding on this issue, the prevailing party will be entitled to recover legal costs and damages. Please also remember that in Florida a broker is responsible for disclosing material defects known to them. It is clear the mold issue was known to you prior to our contract offer [since in my buyer’s due diligence, he had opportunity to talk to a prior offeror who backed out for the same reason]. An “AS IS” offer, does not relieve you of this duty of reasonable care. Please do not let this escalate significantly. It is a certainty that my buyer will sue and not walk away from the deposit as his case is extremely strong. Please have the release signed and returned immediately. Respectfully, Jesse Little did she know……
37. 300 Palm Circle W #203 Price w/closing cost = $61,000. Rented at $1,100/mo; taxes $77/mo.; maintenance dues $215/mo.; property management $110/mo thus NOI = $1,100 – Exp [$402] = $700/mo or $8,400/yr. Cap Rate = $8,400/$61,000 = 13.8% [double South Florida average]. IRR = 25%+ projected over five years. Real examples of properties we have purchased for clients….
230,000/1400 = 164 per square foot 50,000/1400 = 35 per square foot
This chart has three parts. Blue is the active count of properties for sale. Yellow = % absorption = % of inventory per month being sold.Red = Inventory level shown in months needed to sell all. -------”the red line is ‘assume we never sell another property’ – how many months it will take to sell the current inventory. For instance, if we have 845 in June 2008 and we are selling 15 properties per month, it will take 60 months to sell roughly. If we look at the yellow line, you can see 1% absorption rate in 2008 and in 2010 we are looking at 10% so we are absorbing the inventory 10 times faster. Absorption is a function of the number of properties for sale and how quickly they are selling. The supply is dropping and the demand is increasing!
This is the numbers we just spoke about. If we were to pick the starting point, the median price was $135k with absorption of only 1.75% which would take 57 months to inventory. If we now look at today, we are a median price of 55k and the average inventory is 10 months.
This is a graph of our target market in Florida. We are targeting properties under 100k. As you can see, the inventory is much lower and the asborption rate is ten times higher. This would be considered a balanced market and price increases are highly likely starting almost immediately. Now is defninently the time to get in at the absolute rock bottom.