7. Bill McBride
Calculated Risk
A decline in existing home sales doesn't
mean the housing recovery is over. Far from
it! We need to look at the composition of
sales (distressed vs. conventional).
The percent of conventional
sales are increasing.
That is a positive sign.
8. Total Sales Year-Over-Year: 12 Month Sum
% increase or decrease in current 12 months of
total sales over the prior 12 months of total sales
13. Has your interest in purchasing a
home increased over the last year?
Millennial Buyers
Yes – 59%
Move-up Buyers
Yes – 45%
Pulte 5/2014
14. Americans still aspire to buy second homes
and have contributed to the growth of the
market consistently since its bottom in 2009...
As the population continues to age, we expect
people to continue to use their savings to buy
second homes, thereby contributing to a
segment of the mortgage market that will
continue to grow in the years to come.
FannieMae
19. Best Long Term Investment
By Income Category
28%
26%
38%
31%
26%
18%
13%
25%
30%
17%
16%
7%7%
6%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Less than $30K $30K-$74,999 $75K and over
Real Estate Gold
Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs
Bonds
Gallup 4/2014
21. “We leave our 2014
projections for home
prices (up 5-7% for the
year) unchanged.”
Morgan Stanley
“Our base case
projection for 2014 US
home price appreciation
is unchanged at 7%.”
Barclays
HousingWire 4/2014
Home Prices
Going Forward
27. 10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
14%
21%
NAR 4/2014
34. 4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months =
Normal Market
Inventory
NAR 4/2014
36. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Jan Feb Mar
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 4/2014
41. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
2 Total Economic Impact of a Home Sale http://www.realtor.org/reports/state-by-state-economic-impact-of-real-estate-activity
5,6,9,27,
33,34,35,
36
Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales,
12,575 Homes Sell, % Distressed Property, Year-
over-Year Inventory, Months Inventory, Homes for
Sale,
http://www.realtor.org/
7 Bill McBride Quote http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/04/comments-on-housing-and-existing-home.html
8,28,29, 30
Total Sales Year-Over-Year, Foreclosure
Inventory, Months Shadow Inventory, Share of
Mortgages
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx#
10,11,12 Freddie Mac Data
http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140410_springforward_housingforecast.htm
13 Interest in Purchasing - Pulte Homes Survey
http://pultegroupinc.com/investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2014/PulteGroup-Home-Index-S
14 Fannie Mac Quote http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/datanotes/pdf/housing-insights-040714.pdf
15 – 19, 49 Best Long Term Investment - Gallup Poll Slides http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx
21 Morgan Stanley & Barclays Quotes
http://www.housingwire.com/articles/29815-wall-street-home-price-appreciation-still-expected-to-hit-7
22, 23, Corelogic Quote, Prices Compared to Peak http://www.corelogic.com/research/hpi/corelogic-hpi-february-2014.pdf
24, 25
% Reported Appraisal Problems, Appraisal Issues
March 2014
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/MARCH-2014-RCI.pdf
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
42. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
32 Return on Investment
http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
http://money.msn.com/
37,38 Year-over-Year Change in Price, Case-Shiller HPI
https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-
assets/resources/public/documents/83930_cshomeprice-release-0325.pdf?
force_download=true
39 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
40 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011314.pdf
http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/docs/Jan_2014_public_outlook.pdf
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/86783_.pdf
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-12-30-illtratatb/forecast-
1-2014-us-economic-outlook-12-30-2013.pdf
44,47 Guy Kawasaki & Seth Godin Quote LeadingRE Conference 2014
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
43.
44. To provide value, real estate
agents must not only provide
information but also insights
into that information.
Guy Kawasaki
Silicon Valley Author, Speaker,
Investor and Business Advisor
45.
46.
47. It not about having the dots.
It’s about connecting
the dots!!
Seth Godin
Author, Entrepreneur,
Marketer and Public Speaker