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Asia’s Water Future ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Asia’s Future: Critical Thinking for a Changing Environment Bangkok, March 30-April 1, 2009

FOCUS OF PRESENTATION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Source: Columbia University Asia: High Population Density Indo-Gangetic Plains

Water Scarcity 2000 1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

Source: Calculated on the basis of FAO 2006 Population of countries facing water stress or scarcity (billions) Water stress is projected to accelerate in intensity in several regions

Irrigated area expansion leads to 2.6 billion people living in water-scarce basins by 2050 Water-scarce basins in 2000 and 2050 Water-scarce basins in 2050 but not in 2000

Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005) Most hungry and poor people live where water challenges pose a constraint to food production

*Includes food and feed Source: Fraiture et. al., 2007 Food projections South Asia East Asia 2000 2050 % change 2000 2050 % change Wheat (mt) 96 205 114% 121 193 60% Maize (mt) 17 32 88% 184 341 85% Rice (mt) 113 202 79% 219 287 31% Total cereals*(mt 249 471 89% 529 935 77% Meat(mt) 8 32 300% 75 190 153% Milk(mlit) 114 382 235% 19 60 216%

DRIVERS OF WATER DEMAND ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Limits – reached or breached ,[object Object],[object Object]

Increasing groundwater usage is a water time bomb

Source: Tushaar Shah. 2009 Distribution of Groundwater Units in South Asia

Rising Energy Costs Impact Water Use ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],High Intensity Rainfall Floods Excessive Runoff Silted Rivers Increasing Flood Peaks Severe Erosion Landslides ?

Reduced Stream flow Declining Groundwater Level Insufficient Water for Irrigation Limiting Water Supply for Domestic & other Purposes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],High Temp & evaporation; Dry soils

Hotspots of Climatic Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Asia

Climate Change, Rural Vulnerabilities, and Migration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Migration: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What of the future? ,[object Object],[object Object],There are many adaptation measures that could be applied in many parts of Asia to minimize the impacts of climate change on water resources, several of which address the existing inefficiency in the use of water.

A Range of Ag Water Management Options Agenda 1 – Think differently about water

Agenda 2: Water Storage Mitigates Climate Variability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Agenda 3 – Reinvent irrigation

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Agenda 4 – Improve Water Productivity

Agenda 5 – Expand Policies to Upgrade Rainfed Agriculture ,[object Object],[object Object]

Agenda 6 Policy and Institutional reforms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What is needed ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

CONCLUDING REMARKS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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While some regions gain from better water management, much of the world’s population increasingly depend on water moved from one river basin to another. New options are explored to achieve this economically and with reduced socio-environmental damage. As part of the World in 2030 global open foresight project, this point of view shares some perspective on changes ahead. With climate change, increasing urbanisation, growing contamination, higher water consumption, more intensive farming and rising industrial use in many economies all having significant and combined impact, as the global population approaches 10 billion, but the net amount of water on the planet stays constant, concerns over water stress have been building. With 70% of water used for agriculture, a quarter of humanity is now facing a looming water crisis. A broadening range of urban areas need multiple innovations to provide water to cities throughout the year. Although better water management and the decreasing cost of desalination are having impact in some regions, in many others, and especially for fast-growing inland cities, the task of ensuring continued water access is mounting. Simply moving water from one river basin to another is not straightforward. It is fraught with technological, environmental, economic and socio-political challenge. There are however several developments underway to enable more effective long-distance movement of water – some focused on building new infrastructure at scale and others looking to imaginatively repurpose existing assets to help meet the inevitable future demand. Share your views @futureagenda

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Madar Samad's Presentation

3. Source: Columbia University Asia: High Population Density Indo-Gangetic Plains

4. ASIA: High Incidence of Poverty

5. Water Scarcity 2000 1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

6. Source: Calculated on the basis of FAO 2006 Population of countries facing water stress or scarcity (billions) Water stress is projected to accelerate in intensity in several regions

7. Irrigated area expansion leads to 2.6 billion people living in water-scarce basins by 2050 Water-scarce basins in 2000 and 2050 Water-scarce basins in 2050 but not in 2000

8. Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005) Most hungry and poor people live where water challenges pose a constraint to food production

9. *Includes food and feed Source: Fraiture et. al., 2007 Food projections South Asia East Asia 2000 2050 % change 2000 2050 % change Wheat (mt) 96 205 114% 121 193 60% Maize (mt) 17 32 88% 184 341 85% Rice (mt) 113 202 79% 219 287 31% Total cereals*(mt 249 471 89% 529 935 77% Meat(mt) 8 32 300% 75 190 153% Milk(mlit) 114 382 235% 19 60 216%

10.

11.

12.

13. Increasing groundwater usage is a water time bomb

14. Source: Tushaar Shah. 2009 Distribution of Groundwater Units in South Asia

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

20. Hotspots of Climatic Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Asia

21.

22.

23.

24. A Range of Ag Water Management Options Agenda 1 – Think differently about water

25.

26.

27.

28.

29.

30.

31.

32.

33. Thank You

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