Andrew Maynard: Where Do We Go From Here?

Small Gods...
...and the Art of Technology Innovation

Andrew D. Maynard
Director, Risk Science Center
University of Michigan School of Public Health

Cincinnati Contemporary Arts Center, December 11 2010

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

“The future's not set. There's no fate
but what we make for ourselves”


“The future's not set. There's no fate
but what we make for ourselves”
John Connor, Terminator 2: Judgement Day, 1991


!@#$


Risk


Risk:
The likelihood of adverse consequences
arising from actions or events


Risk:
Deconstructed


Risk:
Deconstructed

Cause


Risk:
Deconstructed

Cause Effect


Risk:
Deconstructed

Good
Cause Effect


Risk:
Deconstructed

Good
Cause Effect
Bad


Risk:
Deconstructed

Good
Cause Effect
Bad

Action


Risk:
Deconstructed

Good
Cause Effect
Bad

Action Consequences


Risk:
Deconstructed

Good
Cause Effect
Bad
Beneﬁcial
Action Consequences


Risk:
Deconstructed

Good
Cause Effect
Bad
Beneﬁcial
Action Consequences
Harmful


Risk:
Deconstructed

Good
Cause Effect
Bad
Beneﬁcial
Action Consequences
Harmful

Decision


Risk:
Deconstructed

Good
Cause Effect
Bad
Beneﬁcial
Action Consequences
Harmful

Decision Ramiﬁcations


Risk:
Deconstructed

Good
Cause Effect
Bad
Beneﬁcial
Action Consequences
Harmful

Constructive


Risk:
Deconstructed

Good
Cause Effect
Bad
Beneﬁcial
Action Consequences
Harmful

Constructive
Destructive


Risk:
Deconstructed

Good
Cause Effect
Bad
Beneﬁcial
Action Consequences
(Inaction)
Harmful

Constructive
Destructive


Risk:
Deconstructed

Good
Cause Effect
Bad
Beneﬁcial
Action Consequences
(Inaction)
Harmful

Constructive
(Indecision)
Destructive


The Eruption of Mt. Vesuvius. Pierre-Jacques Volaire, 1777


Sheffield, circa 1874. Source: LIFE


PRAKASH HATVALNE/AP

December 3, 1984: Victims on a Bhopal street


Felice C. Frankel and George M. Whitesides
No Small Matter: Science on the Nanoscale


Felice C. Frankel and George M. Whitesides
No Small Matter: Science on the Nanoscale

Phantoms
…Faced with something unfamiliar, we are simultaneously curious and afraid. To remind us to be
careful, we construct things that go bump in the night—phantoms, trolls, chain-saw movies.

This field of shimmering light, with unrecognizeable shapes inside, could be anything; best to assume
it’s dangerous! (It is, in fact, a fountain playing over rocks; but no matter.) We treat new technologies
in the same way. At the beginnig, they are all dangerous: fire, the book, steam engines, genetically
engineered bacteria, nanotechnology. But with enough familiarity, we ignore even truly dangerous
ones—nuclear weapons, ubiquitous surveillance, smoking, drinking, the sports channel on TV.

Last Century’s
Risk challenge:


Last Century’s
Risk challenge:

How do we prevent human instincts
causing more harm than good in a
technology-driven world?


Science:


Science:

on,
cti on
pr edi ati
n, evalu
tio e-
rva d r
O bse g an
te stin


Science:

on,
cti on
pr edi ati
n, evalu
tio e-
rva d r
O bse g an
te stin

Evidence-based
decisions and action
s


Science:

on,
cti on
pr edi ati
n, evalu
tio e-
rva d r
O bse g an
te stin
Inde
p en
self d en
-cor t an
rec t d
ing

Evidence-based
s


Science:

on,
cti on
pr edi ati
nct
n, evalu
tio e-
in
bse g an s ti
rva d r
O
es the
stin
nce tak
te
we do Inde
S cie f w hat self
p en
-cor
d en
t an
out o rec t
ing
d

Evidence-based
s


Risk Science:


Risk Science:

Science that supports evidence-
informed approaches to risk


Risk Science:


A systematic ap
proach to
evaluating and ad
dressing risk


Risk Science:


A systematic ap
proach to
evaluating and ad
dressing risk

A means of separating risk-related
decisions and actions from potentially
harmful instinctive responses


Risk Science:


A systemanop ug h?
is eh iatineatnc a proach to
tvalu s g i
But d addressing risk

A means of separating risk-related
decisions and actions from potentially
harmful instinctive responses


Risk Science:
In the 21st Century


Risk Science:
In the 21st Century

Coupling


Risk Science:
In the 21st Century

Coupling
Communication


Risk Science:
In the 21st Century

Coupling
Communication
Control


Coupling


Estimated change in sea surface acidity caused between the 1700s and the 1990s

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:WOA05_GLODAP_del_pH_AYool.png

Photo: Andy Gupta

The Colorado river running through Marble Canyon

http://www.flickr.com/photos/77145662@N00/5014081890/

Aitor Escauriaza
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rotia/619256949/sizes/o/in/photostream/

Communication


http://www.neuroproductions.be/

One week’s Twitter conversations initiated by @boraz (Bora Zivkovic)

http://socialcollider.net/

Last of 33 Chilean miners to be rescued. Washington Post


Control


Geoengineering
Reﬂected
sunlight

Al2O3
Al 50 nm

BaTiO3
10 µm
Gravitational
alignment

Photophoretic
levitation

Hypothetical material
Keith DW. 2010. Photophoretic levitation of engineered aerosols for geoengineering.
PNAS 107(38): 16429-31.

Nanomedicine

Martin Philbert and Raoul Kopelman


Synthetic biology
Mycoplasma mycoides JCVI-syn1

J. Craig Venter Institute

Gibson DG, Glass JI, Lartigue C, Noskov VN, Chuang R-Y, Algire MA, et al. 2010.
Creation of a Bacterial Cell Controlled by a Chemically Synthesized Genome.
Science 329(5987): 52-56.

Concept: Drew
Endy

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Concept: Drew
Endy

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Information
Flow Concept: Drew
Endy

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN
Natural Selection

Information
Flow Concept: Drew
Endy

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN
Natural Selection Breeding

Information
Flow Concept: Drew
Endy

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN
Natural Selection Breeding Biotechnology

Information
Flow Concept: Drew
Endy

DIGITAL CODE DIGITAL DOMAIN

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Information
Flow Concept: Drew
Endy


Sequencing

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Information
Flow Concept: Drew
Endy

Re-arrange


Sequencing

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Information
Flow Concept: Drew
Endy

Re-arrange Write


Sequencing

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Information
Flow Concept: Drew
Endy

Re-arrange Write Debug


Sequencing

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Information
Flow Concept: Drew
Endy

Re-arrange Write Debug


Sequencing Synthesis

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Information
Flow Concept: Drew
Endy

Bayley H. 2010. Nanotechnology: Holes with an edge. Nature 467(7312): 164-165.


Sequencing the Human Genome



Human Genome Project




1988 - 2001




1988 - 2001
13 years



Human Genome Project James Watson

1988 - 2001
13 years




1988 - 2001 2007
13 years




1988 - 2001 2007
13 years 2 months



Human Genome Project James Watson The near future?

1988 - 2001 2007
13 years 2 months




1988 - 2001 2007 2013
13 years 2 months




1988 - 2001 2007 2013
13 years 2 months 3 minutes

Science 291:5507, pp. 1304-1351, Nature, 1 June 2007. Nature, 6 February 2009.
2001. doi: 10.1126/science.1058040 doi:10.1038/news070528-10 doi:10.1038/news.2009.86


Communication

Coupling


Communication

Coupling

Control


Communication

Coupling

?
Control


Five Pressure-Point Technologies:



Bio-constr
Viruses pro
uction
g
rammed to
build new m
aterials


Synthetic biology
Digitally designing “life” an
d downloading it into real
ity

Bio-constr
Viruses pro
uction
g rammed to
build new m
aterials


Synthetic biology
ity

Geoengin
Planet-wid
eering
e climate
interventio
n

Bio-constr
Viruses pro
uction
g rammed to
build new m
aterials


Synthetic biology
ity

Geoengin
Planet-wid
eering
e climate
interventio
n

Bio-constr
Viruses pro
uction
g rammed to
build new m
aterials

Mac
hBett ine-h
er-t
han u ma
-hum
an?
n inte
r face
s


Synthetic biology
ity

Geoengin
Planet-wid
eering
e climate
interventio
n

Bio-constr
Viruses pro
uction
g rammed to
build new m
aterials

Mac
hBett ine-h
er-t
han u ma
-hum
an?
n inte
Cognitive enhancers r face
Designer drugs for aspiring high achievers
s


The 20th century
Risk challenge:

How do we prevent human instincts causing
more harm than good in a technologically
complex world?


The 21st century
Risk challenge:


The 21st century
Risk challenge:

How do we ensure evidence-informed,
socially-responsive and proactive risk-
decisions in a highly complex, interconnected
and interdependent world?


Drivers of change:


Drivers of change:
Complexity: Agents of harm are increasingly
complex, and innovation cycle so fast that
established linear, reactive approaches to
addressing risk are failing


Drivers of change:

Interconnectedness: Increasingly complex
local and global relationships between decisions
and their ramifications


Drivers of change:

Interconnectedness: Increasingly complex
local and global relationships between decisions
and their ramifications

Distributed decision-making: Non-traditional
decision-influencers and decision-makers are
becoming increasingly influential, including
citizens


The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. Douglas Adams. BBC, 1981


Andrew D. Maynard
Director, Risk Science Center
University of Michigan School of Public Health
1415 Washington Heights
SPH I Room 1792
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
Email: maynarda@umich.edu

Contact: Hilda McDonald, Tel: 734-615-3050, Email: hildiris@umich.edu

Risk Science Center: http://umriskcenter.org
Blog: http://2020science.org
Twitter: http://twitter.com/2020science


Andrew Maynard: Where Do We Go From Here?

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