Managing Risk How Analytics And Risk Information Can Infor

Experian Scottish Public Sector
Conference
Dr. Ged Mirfin, Chief Data Officer – Business Link Northwest

© Experian Limited 2009. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Limited.
Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work
may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Limited.

Introduction: Key objectives of presentation

Understanding Performance Gaps & Political Market
Understanding Performance Gaps & Political Market
 Failure in Public Sector Data (Non) Use & Abuse
Failure in Public Sector Data (Non) Use & Abuse

The use and application of data to inform and drive
The use and application of data to inform and drive
 effective evidence based policy
effective evidence based policy

How to improve the delivery of Business Support &
 How to improve the delivery of Business Support &
mitigate Commercial Risk through contextually
mitigate Commercial Risk through contextually
relevant data-driven marketing
relevant data-driven marketing

© Experian Limited 2009. All rights reserved. 2

Experience + Evidence = Intelligence

Experience- Intelligence
influenced based
Policy Making Experience

Aim: Move away
Aim: Move away
from Anecdotal &
from Anecdotal &
Judgmental to
Judgmental to
Evidence-based
Evidence-based
Policy formulation
Policy formulation

Opinion- Evidence-
based influenced

Policy Making Evidence


Context: Delivering support to businesses in the
recessionary and post recessionary economic climate

 Problem 1: Identifying Struggling Businesses
 Problem 2: Finding them early enough. There are
No Second Chances in a Recession!
 Problem 3: Economic Impact on Key Business
Segments. How badly have they been and what is
the likelihood of Commercial Failure? Can
Business Support can make a difference?
 Problem 4: Policy Makers don’t have context to
Make or Measure the Impact of Policy


The Public Sector’s Historical Problem: Push
marketing

The Business Link brand has historically had poor customer intelligence

The absence of sufficient quality data meant:
No holistic overview
Marketing efforts were supply-push
Generic marketing campaigns
Nationally driven campaigns lacked Impact and affected
brand awareness
Operational efficiency suffered


Truism number 1
Good decisions are impossible to make without
intelligent data


Business Link’s Data Strategy
“BLNW’s Key Strategic Objectives”

 Business Link North West Strategy
statement 2008/09 (Data Related)
“To be recognised as the leader on
regional business intelligence”
“To play a vital role in informing business
support policy making”


History of the BPI

Experian National Business
Business Link Database Entries for
Universe of North West
Company Data
536k
100k

Business Link had 100k company records in its  Experian profiled Business Link data and found 536k businesses (both Ltd. And
unincorporated) at location level in its National Business Database for the North West.
The companies had been assisted by Business Link  Business Link acquired the data from Experian. Each Experian record had in excess
of 150 data characteristics (appends)
The data captured was used to satisfy contract outputs  The extra data records allowed a significant level of analytics to be done. The data
had access to classification systems (Yell and Thompson Directories) and allowed
detailed segmentation
We needed to increase the data set both in terms of
 One of the Primary data attributes was “Risk Scores and Financial Performance data”


We incorporated Business Link universe and
Experian’s National Business Database into the BPI

Experian National Business
Business Link Database Entries for
Universe of North West
Company Data
536k
100k


We incorporated Business Link universe and
Experian’s National Business Database into the BPI

Section of database
Section of database
unique to Business
unique to Business
Link – Lifestyle and
Link – Lifestyle and
Grey economy
Grey economy
businesses
businesses
Consolidates North
West Business
Universe
15k 85k

436k


Key Data Attributes of BLNW’s Business
Performance Index

 Is “real time” data and is updated monthly

 Is the first (B2B) business profiling system in the public sector

 Offers real time intelligence to support our efforts to address the
current market conditions

 Data is very granular and can be segmented to very specific levels

 Key data segmentation is geographic (down to postcode) and
sectoral (RES, SIC group, Yell classification code, Thompson
directory classification code)


Business Support Criteria powered by
Experian’s National Business Database

Relevant
Shared Partner Sector &
Data Geography

Business
Commercial Financials
Classification
Business
Support
Criteria Size of
Business
Risk

Company Age of
Status Business


Commercial Delphi risk

Risk Category Description
Failed/serious
Administrator or receiver appointed, bankrupt proprietor, dissolved business
adverse info

High value of unsatisfied CCJs, accounts overdue, start-up business with adverse data,
Maximum risk proprietor with adverse data or maiden accounts show loss

Large company with weak balance sheet, medium sized firm with very weak balance sheet,
High risk
combination of above average risk features, start-up with adverse trading

Large company with very weak balance sheet, medium to small firms with (high levels of credit
Above average search, payment difficulty, weak balance sheets), start-up firm without adverse information

Large business with weaker balance sheet/modest loss, SMEs with steady trading, small firms
Below average with directors with good record, no adverse data

Well established, accounts filed, mid to large firms with £1m of assets and £5m of turnover,
Low risk good record, directors with strong records

Minimum risk Large well established firms, strong balance sheets, low value of public information


Business Link Northwest’s BPI (Business
Performance Index) Data Warehouse

Figure 1 Data Capture >20 Redundancies
within 90 days

CLUSTERS
& TRADE
ASSOCIATIONS NWDA
TUC / UNIONS HR1 to BERR

LOCAL JOB CENTRE
AUTHORITIES PLUS
BUSINESS LINK
DATA WAREHOUSE

SUB-
GOVERNMENT
REGIONAL
OFFICE NW
PARTNERS

RECORD BY COMPANY BUSINESS
CHAMBERS OF Company Name LINK NW
COMMERCE Registered Number
Company Address
Local Authority & Ward
Sector
Turnover & GVA Estimate
No. of Perm employees

Business Performance Index
No. of Jobs at Risk

ESTABLISH RAPID RESPONSE TEAM

(BPI)
DEVELOP STRATEGY/POLICY FOR
SUPPORTING COMPANIES IN CRISIS

COMMUNICATE STRATEGY/POLICY TO
PARTNERS (JCP, LSC, BLNW, TRADE
ASSOCIATIONS) & INTERNAL PARTNERS


What does the North West region look like?

Below Above Maximum Dissolved/Ser
Very Low Risk Low Risk High Risk
Average Risk Average Risk Risk ious Adverse
Info

North West 7.76% 11.62% 23.37% 22.88% 11.31% 20.16% 2.91%

Merseyside
7.50% 9.50% 20.03% 24.32% 12.11% 24.01% 2.53%

Warrington &
Cheshire 7.17% 10.62% 23.82% 20.80% 15.32% 20.79% 1.48%

Cumbria 11.67% 16.65% 29.24% 24.19% 6.80% 10.28% 1.18%

Lancashire 8.45% 14.20% 27.70% 24.77% 8.31% 14.24% 2.34%

Manchester 7.07% 10.74% 21.31% 21.94% 11.57% 23.06% 4.31%


This information is based on data provided by Experian. The data has been subject to further analysis by Business Link North West.

The Power of the BPI: Project Rapier – Liverpool Vision’s objective of
spending £10M to save 40 businesses in the retail sector by end Q1 2009

How do you Identify a…
£729.71
£729.71

 …company that is at least of
Liverpool (13,704) Above Average Risk
£48,309
£48,309  which is based in Liverpool
 which Employs 50 or more
Employs 50 or more (207) Employees at Site
£151,515
£151,515  specifically in the Central
Ward
Central Ward (66)
 which is in the Retail Sector
£2.5M
£2.5M In Retail
Sector (4)
 whose payment profile is
deteriorating.
Deteriorating
Payment Profile (1)
£10M
£10M



And that business was?

 Zavvi payment profile was 20 days
better than industry sector average
from Jan 2008 – June 2008
 In July Zavvi payment profile was in
line with sector average (20 days
beyond terms)
 By September the profile was 60 days
beyond terms, October was 80 days.
Zavvi went into receivership in
December
 What is the true cost of poor data -
£10m?


What does a Local Authority Look like when
compared to the North West Region?
North West
Dissolved / Serious
Very Low Risk Low Risk Below Average Risk Above Average Risk High Risk Maximum Risk Adverse
Information

7.76% 11.62% 23.37% 22.88% 11.31% 20.16% 2.91%

Merseyside
Dissolved / Serious
Information

7.50% 9.50% 20.03% 24.32% 12.11% 24.01% 2.53%

Sefton
Dissolved / Serious
Very Low Risk Low Risk Below Average Risk Above Average Risk High Risk Maximum Risk
Adverse Information

11.4% 11.0% 18.6% 8.9% 13.7% 27.0% 1.0%


This information is based on data provided by Experian and has been subject to further analysis by Business Link North West.

What does the risk profile look like for Sefton?

Sefton
Dissolved / Serious
Adverse Information

7.16% 9.99% 21.03% 23.12% 9.43% 27.52% 1.75%




Sefton
Dissolved / Serious
Adverse Information

7.16% 9.99% 21.03% 23.12% 9.43% 27.52% 1.75%

Sefton – Maximum Risk Businesses

Number of
Risk Micro Band Percentage
Companies

1 1,147 40.6%

2 329 11.6%

3 399 14.1%

4 576 20.4%

5 375 13.3%




Sefton
Dissolved / Serious
Adverse Information

7.16% 9.99% 21.03% 23.12% 9.43% 27.52% 1.75%


Number of
Companies

1 1,147 40.6%

2 329 11.6%
Drill into the highest of the high risk
3 399 14.1%
Businesses in Sefton
4 576 20.4%

5 375 13.3%




Sefton
Dissolved / Serious
Information

7.16% 9.99% 21.03% 23.12% 9.43% 27.52% 1.75%


Number of
Companies

1 1,147 40.6%

2 329 11.6%

3 399 14.1%

4 576 20.4%

5 375 13.3%



The top 25 businesses by headcount from the
highest Micro-Band of Sefton’s maximum risk band
by geographical location
Where are these Entities located?



Business Link approach
- The Rapid Response Framework 1

The Rapid
How Can We Help? Response Framework
Complex Data Analytics

to provide Partners with

very detailed information

Simple phone Hotline to

service requests for Data
Web Enabled multi partner
from Business Support
access to BLNW Database
Agencies
through Extranet facility



 Stratified response to the current economic
climate – 2 Activity Levels
 For light touch intervention activity targeted
marketing campaigns sensitive to the issues
a company with a worsening risk profiles
score. – specialist telephone advice, email
contact or web-based toolkits
 For companies / groups facing significant
problems more direct intervention activity
through Target Adviser Teams or through
Partner Organisation
 Each activity making best use of Business
Support products



-Business Performance Index - Partner Engagement Who have we worked with?
-Wave 3
-Wave 2

-Wave 1


“Understanding your customers improves
customer engagement”

Face 2
face Email

Call
centre Image
Overall
Your customers service You
quality
understand Internet
understand
you Value
for your customers
money

Overall
company Loyalty
rating

Don’t think about ‘what can you do for your customers’,

but ‘what can your customers do for you’

Contextual relevance

Relevance and engagement are
delivered via intelligent marketing
content to suit what we know
about end users


Contextual relevance

Contextually Relevant Marketing is highly Localised and Personal

This style of marketing is not possible without Exceptional Levels of
Customer Insight.

Ultimately this is about understanding your audience & then delivering
Messages that are Current and Relevant

Direct Marketing

Need: To Achieve High Levels of Solution: Maximising the Take-Up
Awareness and Developed of Product & Increasing Service
Understanding Consumption through Optimising
Lead Generation and Improved
Customer Targeting


Crunch time for Bolton Businesses

 Jointly branded campaign
with Business Bolton
 Key Messaging delivered to
businesses within the Bolton
area, about the kind of help
and support available to them
during the economic
downturn.
 Campaign delivered via a
combination of Direct Mail
and eComms Channels


Crunch time for Bolton Businesses


Brand Building &
Enhancement

Need: To Associate BLNW Solution: Evolving a Strong Local
Brand Locally Accessible Brand Identity focussed on
Service Offering which is Issues and Themes specific to
Focussed on Local Need North West Businesses
Supplier
Supplier
Brand Aware
Brand Aware


The BLNW Brand: Guiding you on your journey

 Email Marketing Campaign
designed to drive Traffic to New
BLNW Web-Site and Knowledge
Portals
 Tailored Advice on Cash-flow
Management and Late Payment.
 Campaign delivered via Highly
Targeted Email Broadcast and
Inserts in Subscription-Based
Electronic News Letter.


Beat the credit crunch – manage cash-flow


Manage cash-flow – understand the essentials


Prevent late payments


Events Marketing

Need: To Differentiate Product Solution: Expert Coaching
Offering from Other Players in through Educational Seminars at
the Marketplace Co-Branded Events. Delivered by
Acknowledged Specialists from
Market Leading Blue Chips
Associating Service Offering with
Other High Visibility Premium
Brands


Survive and thrive

 Objective to engage with SME community
demonstrating that BLNW is in a good
position to support business through the
‘credit crunch ”.
 Series of 11 events in Sub Regions to
inspire and motivate Businesses to take
action and encourage them to position
themselves to survive & improve!
 Held in partnership with Key Regional
Business Support Stakeholder
Organisations.
 Aim to strongly affirm Key Differentiator of
BLNW Quality Service Offering by
associating BLNW Brand with recognised
and respected Business Support Agencies.


PR & Communications

Need: to Enhance BLNW Market Solution: Thought Leadership
Reputation Campaigns Delivered through PR
& Communication


United we stand

 Objective to Underpin BLNW’s positioning
as leader in Business Intelligence across
the region
 Demonstrate the expertise of BLNW
 Provide unique insights into the economic
health of the region
 BLNW and Lancashire Telegraph
campaign offers editorial, events,
workshops and podcasts/webchats


Graphic provided Courtesy of Lancashire Telegraph – part of the Newsquest Media Group


Lancashire Telegraph launches campaign to
support businesses
 “TODAY the Lancashire Telegraph launches a major campaign to help businesses fight back
against the recession” – BRAND ASSOCIATION
 “New figures reveal that almost 4,000 East Lancashire businesses are staring into the
financial abyss at a time of unprecedented economic hardship”. – TRUSTING OUR
MESSAGE
 “The campaign comes as figures from Business Link Northwest show that 14per cent of East
Lancashire companies – 3,977 – are at maximum risk of failure”. – POSITIONING
OURSELVES AS THE AUTHORITY ON THE SUBJECT
 With more than 28,000 firms across East Lancashire, The Lancashire Telegraph and
Business Link Northwest are looking to give them the help they need to ride out the
recession. – THE HOOK
 “Business Link research shows that…….” BRAND ASSOCIATION AND AWARENESS
Blackburn with Darwen has the highest number of businesses at maximum risk – 15 per cent
(1,198) of its 7,950 businesses. - GRANULAR DATA CONTEXT AND ENGAGEMENT
 “The figures have been compiled by global credit management company Experian and have
been built into an innovative Business Performance Index developed by the Business Link
data analysis team” – BRAND ASSOCIATION.


Feedback – brand awareness?

“It’s a great idea. We all have a responsibility
to the community at a time of recession and
newspapers have a great responsibility,
which you are showing, to try and help
businesses get all the help they need.”

David Cameron, Tory Leader



“Small and medium size businesses are
important because of the number of people they
employ. The Lancashire Telegraph’s campaign is
immensely important too because unless people
work together at a local and national level to do
the best for East Lancashire businesses, we will
not get through this recession.”

Nick Clegg, Liberal Democrat Leader



“The Lancashire Telegraph campaign is
vitally important. It remains a truth that too
many business people freeze when faced
with difficulties and getting them to ask for
help early is a must.”

Jack Straw, Blackburn MP


Viral Marketing, Advocacy &
Reference Management

Need: Build Customer Advocacy Solution: Building Stakeholder
Advocacy Networks through Viral
Marketing


Selling the vision

 Searching for Evangelists
 Delighting Stakeholders and
Customers with Insight
 Become the Primary Source of
Business Intelligence in the Region
 One Version of the Truth and One
Author of Widely Circulated Data
Assets
 Use of Self Replicating Viral
Marketing via Effective Working
Groups and Representation at
Critical Policy Forums
 Nudge the Change Architects
(Thaler & Sunnstein) and Be
Confident in the expansive
capabilities of B2B Mood Contagion


Conclusion: Benefits of using the BPI

The BPI system allowed us to “Flag” the companies we assist and
The BPI system allowed us to “Flag” the companies we assist and
 monitor their “improvement” over time
monitor their “improvement” over time

This monitoring allowed us to review the effectiveness of our
This monitoring allowed us to review the effectiveness of our
 activities and can be analysed regionally as well as by RES
activities and can be analysed regionally as well as by RES

Each product had a different flag which will allow us to record
Each product had a different flag which will allow us to record
 the respective effectiveness of the different products available
the respective effectiveness of the different products available

System allowed us to compare the performance of companies, that
System allowed us to compare the performance of companies, that
 have had our support, with the rest of the economy on a like-for-like basis
have had our support, with the rest of the economy on a like-for-like basis

It enabled us to develop our products using and evidence based
It enabled us to develop our products using and evidence based
 development framework
development framework


Questions?


Managing Risk How Analytics And Risk Information Can Infor

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