14. Recent Observations
Past 20 years extreme winds increased ~10% and
extreme wave height increased average of 7%
Longer lasting storms with higher wind velocities
inflict greater damage - function of (wind speed)3
Surface warming of 20C would intensify hurricane
wind speeds by 3-7 m/s or 5-13 %.
Global Water Cycle – recently doubled re models
16. • Average increase of 2mm per year until 1993 – now 3 mm per year
•Coastal areas less than 10 m above sea level account for 2% of all land
and 10% of world population (about 700 million people)
17.
18. NASA Image, Cindy Starr
Illulisat (Western Greenland) – largest single glacier in the North Atlantic
19. 1.5 m SL rise
Dhaka People affected
17 million
(15%)
Land affected:
Calcutta
22,000 km2
(16%)
Bangladesh, Bay of Bengal - 1970 Bhola cyclone claimed 500,000 lives
21. Maldives
•1200 coral atolls
•2.5 m above S. L.
•300,000 people
•Seriously threatened,
few options
•Plan: turn off lights
lock up and leave
22. Male, Capital of Maldives
Population: 80,000 Protective wall:
10% of GDP
23. Shaw, J. et al. 1998. Geological Survey of Canada, Bulletin 505.
Natural Resources Canada
Maritime Provinces - highly vulnerable with potentially greatest social disruption
24.
25. The number of people at risk from flooding by coastal
storm surges is projected to increase from the current 75
million to 200 million....in which a rise in sea level of 40 cm
is envisaged by the 2080s
(from Patz et al 2006 after McCarthy et al 2001)
31. What is the Impact of Acidification?
•Ocean food chain threatened by loss of
small plankton organisms
• Corals (surface and deep), upon which
many people depend, for:
-food
-raw materials
-recreation
-water purification
-tourism
-storm impact reduction
• Economic hit to the global economy
will fall between $30-170 billion per yr
• Displacement of millions of people
32. Common to Three Examples
(ocean warming, sea level rise, acidification)
World ocean issues
Linked to CO2 increase
Accelerating ?
Profound socio-economic
implications
Canada will be impacted
Approaching tipping point?
34. Environmental Refugees
Hundreds of millions of
people on the move over
next few decades
10 million refugees last year
& UN claims 50 million by
end of next decade
Red Cross: “environmental
disasters already displace
more than war” In addition to 3 examples:
drought
Expected to become one of the soil moisture
foremost crises of our time intense precipitation
desertification
42. • 25X more effective as
GHG than CO2
• Vast untapped deposits
in cold seas
• Exit into atmosphere
accelerates warming
which accelerates
methane release
which accelerates....
Frozen Sea-Bed Methane (Hydrates)
44. Large scale, deliberate intervention in earth’s climate
Choices: solar radiation management or removal of CO2
45. “When you start to reflect light
away from the planet, you can
easily imagine a chain of events
that would extinguish life on
earth”
Dr. David Keith
Prof. of Engineering
and Public Policy
Harvard University