1. Futures studies involves predictive, explorative, and normative approaches to anticipate probable, possible, and desirable futures across various domains including policies, economy, society, technology, environment, and culture. 2. Futures studies is essential to urban planning due to increased complexity from many stakeholders, potential discontinuities in development, and redefining societal goals for post-materialistic, resource-constrained societies. 3. Futures studies can provide urban planning with a systemic approach, managing long timescales, systematically exploring alternatives, and engaging stakeholders through envisioning different ways to achieve broad goals.

1. On Futures studies
Aleksi Neuvonen
Demos Helsinki
aleksi.neuvonen@demos.fi
Twitter: Leksis

3. 1.Futures studies - what?

4. 1.Futures studies - what?
2.Futures studies - why?

5. 1.Futures studies - what?
2.Futures studies - why?
3.Futures studies - how?

6. 1.Futures studies - what?
2.Futures studies - why?
3.Futures studies - how?
4.Examples

7. What?

9. predictive (probable futures)

10. predictive (probable futures)
explorative (possible futures)

11. predictive (probable futures)
explorative (possible futures)
normative (desirable futures)

12. Policies
Economy
Social
Technology
Environment
Culture

13. Policies
Economy
Social Several domains,
Technology Systemic view
Environment
Culture

14. Scenarios are always part of a
strategic process.

15. "A hypothetical sequence of events
constructed for the purpose of
focusing attention on causal
processes and decision points ."
Herman Kahn & Antony Wiener: The Year 2000. A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years (1967, s. 6)

16. Why?

17. 1.Primary forecast (the trend);
2.Secondary forecasts (alternative reactions); and
3.Tertiary forecast (preferences of the decision-maker)
de Jouvenell

18. Congestion, current streets
100
75
Primary forecast 50
25
0
2000 2010 2020 2030

19. Current plan
New ring road
Undergroud
100
75
Secondary forecast 50
25
0
2000 2010 2020 2030

20. Current plan
New ring road
Congestion charge
100
75
Tertiary forecast 50
25
0
2000 2010 2020 2030

21. There are always ”black swans”
Scenarios help to take them into account.

22. We are capable of anticipating the future because of
the...

23. We are capable of anticipating the future because of
the...
1.investments we have agreed on

24. We are capable of anticipating the future because of
the...
1.investments we have agreed on
2.hopes and plans people individually and collectively have

25. We are capable of anticipating the future because of
the...
1.investments we have agreed on
2.hopes and plans people individually and collectively have
3.slow changing demographic structures

26. We are capable of anticipating the future because of
the...
1.investments we have agreed on
2.hopes and plans people individually and collectively have
3.slow changing demographic structures
4.persisting habits and traditions.

27. We are capable of anticipating the future because of
the...
1.investments we have agreed on
2.hopes and plans people individually and collectively have
3.slow changing demographic structures
4.persisting habits and traditions.
5.cyclical and linear processes in the nature.

28. However, future cannot be predicted, because of
the ...

29. However, future cannot be predicted, because of
the ...
1. pure chance

30. However, future cannot be predicted, because of
the ...
1. pure chance
2. chaotic processes

31. However, future cannot be predicted, because of
the ...
1. pure chance
2. chaotic processes
3. new information constantly shapes beliefs,
attitudes and behavior

32. However, future cannot be predicted, because of
the ...
1. pure chance
2. chaotic processes
3. new information constantly shapes beliefs,
attitudes and behavior
4. teknological innovation alters practices.

33. Therefore:

34. Therefore:
1.Lifestyles change

35. Therefore:
1.Lifestyles change
2.Viability of technologies change

36. Therefore:
1.Lifestyles change
2.Viability of technologies change
3.Strucutures of economy and business change

37. Therefore:
1.Lifestyles change
2.Viability of technologies change
3.Strucutures of economy and business change
4.Capability for investments change

38. Therefore:
1.Lifestyles change
2.Viability of technologies change
3.Strucutures of economy and business change
4.Capability for investments change
5.Political priorities change

39. How?

41. 1. Define the domain of the study

42. 1. Define the domain of the study
2. Define rigid factors and persisting structures

43. 1. Define the domain of the study
2. Define rigid factors and persisting structures
3. Understand mega-trends and long-lasting values

44. 1. Define the domain of the study
2. Define rigid factors and persisting structures
3. Understand mega-trends and long-lasting values
4. Define conflicting trends and their unexpected consequences

45. 1. Define the domain of the study
2. Define rigid factors and persisting structures
3. Understand mega-trends and long-lasting values
4. Define conflicting trends and their unexpected consequences
5. Check the issues you don’t know enough about that are usually
thought to be almost self-evident

46. 1. Define the domain of the study
2. Define rigid factors and persisting structures
3. Understand mega-trends and long-lasting values
4. Define conflicting trends and their unexpected consequences
5. Check the issues you don’t know enough about that are usually
thought to be almost self-evident
6. Trace early signs of change, evaluate their possible impact

47. 1. Define the domain of the study
2. Define rigid factors and persisting structures
3. Understand mega-trends and long-lasting values
4. Define conflicting trends and their unexpected consequences
5. Check the issues you don’t know enough about that are usually
thought to be almost self-evident
6. Trace early signs of change, evaluate their possible impact
7. Create coherent, logical and surprising scenarios or states of futures

49. Discuss:

50. Discuss:
1. What are the rigid factors and persisting structures that shape your
project assignment.

51. Discuss:
1. What are the rigid factors and persisting structures that shape your
project assignment.
2. What trends affecting your assignment could be conflicting with
each other or with rigid structures?

52. What futures bring to planning process?
Business
Lifestyles
Innovations

53. What futures bring to planning process?
Business
Define topics
Foqtv" qgu
g eckrt eu
e
Lifestyles
Innovations

54. What futures bring to planning process?
Business
Define topics
Foqtv" qgu
g eckrt eu
e
Lifestyles
Define norms &
Innovations goals
Planning

55. What futures bring to planning process?
Business
Define topics
Foqtv" qgu
g eckrt eu
e
Lifestyles
Define norms &
Innovations goals
Planning
Define tools &
measures
Infrastructure

56. What futures bring to planning process?
Business
Define topics
Foqtv" qgu
g eckrt eu
e
Lifestyles
Define norms &
Innovations goals
Planning
Define tools &
measures
Futures, foresight
Infrastructure

57. What futures bring to planning process?
Business
Define topics
Foqtv" qgu
g eckrt eu
e
Lifestyles
Define norms &
Innovations e: s
ng m goals
ch a dig
of pa ra
on etin
ti p g Planning
re ta om
ep bate,c
tr e
In Define tools &
bl ic d measures
pu
Futures, foresight
Infrastructure

58. Transition management
Normative vision
Experiments
2012 2032 2052

59. What futures bring planning process?
Business
Lifestyles
Innovations

60. What futures bring planning process?
Business
Define topics
Democratic
process
Lifestyles
Innovations

61. What futures bring planning process?
Business
Define topics
Democratic
process
Lifestyles
Define norms &
Innovations goals
Planning

62. What futures bring planning process?
Business
Define topics
Democratic
process
Lifestyles
Define norms &
Innovations goals
Planning
Define tools &
measures
Infrastructure

63. What futures bring planning process?
Business
Define topics
Democratic
process
Lifestyles
Define norms &
Innovations goals
Planning
Define tools &
measures
Futures, foresight
Infrastructure

64. What futures bring planning process?
Business
Define topics
Democratic
process
Lifestyles
Define norms &
Innovations goals
Planning
change es
ools for ng regim
New t s, emergi
Define tools &
promisin g practice measures
Futures, foresight
Infrastructure

65. Why is futures studies essential to urban planning?

66. Why is futures studies essential to urban planning?
1.From top-down planning to interaction of vast number of
stakeholders → facilitating communication

67. Why is futures studies essential to urban planning?
1.From top-down planning to interaction of vast number of
stakeholders → facilitating communication
2.Increased probability of dis-continuities in societal development →
visions of paradigm beyond transformation

68. Why is futures studies essential to urban planning?
1.From top-down planning to interaction of vast number of
stakeholders → facilitating communication
2.Increased probability of dis-continuities in societal development →
visions of paradigm beyond transformation
3.Re-definition of societal goals → what brings about happiness in
post-materialistic society with resource constrains

69. Why is futures studies essential to urban planning?
1.From top-down planning to interaction of vast number of
stakeholders → facilitating communication
2.Increased probability of dis-continuities in societal development →
visions of paradigm beyond transformation
3.Re-definition of societal goals → what brings about happiness in
post-materialistic society with resource constrains
4.Need to conjoin different types of resources into planning process
(in addition to capital of municipalities and real-estate companies)

70. Why is futures studies essential to urban planning?
1.From top-down planning to interaction of vast number of
stakeholders → facilitating communication
2.Increased probability of dis-continuities in societal development →
visions of paradigm beyond transformation
3.Re-definition of societal goals → what brings about happiness in
post-materialistic society with resource constrains
4.Need to conjoin different types of resources into planning process
(in addition to capital of municipalities and real-estate companies)
Discuss: What is the relevance of these challenges to your project
assignment? Which are the most relevant ones?

72. Discuss:

73. Discuss:
1. What are the rigid factors and persisting structures that shape your
project assignment.

74. Discuss:
1. What are the rigid factors and persisting structures that shape your
project assignment.
2. What trends affecting your assignment could be conflicting with
each other or with rigid structures?

75. Example:
Greater Helsinki Vision 2050

77. What futures can offer for urban planning?

78. What futures can offer for urban planning?
1. Systemic approach on process of socio-technical change, including
social and economic drivers

79. What futures can offer for urban planning?
1. Systemic approach on process of socio-technical change, including
social and economic drivers
2. Way of managing parallel processes in long time-scales

80. What futures can offer for urban planning?
1. Systemic approach on process of socio-technical change, including
social and economic drivers
2. Way of managing parallel processes in long time-scales
3. Systematic exploration of alternatives → index of opportunities
discovered, available to be reconsidered

81. What futures can offer for urban planning?
1. Systemic approach on process of socio-technical change, including
social and economic drivers
2. Way of managing parallel processes in long time-scales
3. Systematic exploration of alternatives → index of opportunities
discovered, available to be reconsidered
4. Explication of broad societal goals → displaying different ways of
bringing about these goals

82. What futures can offer for urban planning?
1. Systemic approach on process of socio-technical change, including
social and economic drivers
2. Way of managing parallel processes in long time-scales
3. Systematic exploration of alternatives → index of opportunities
discovered, available to be reconsidered
4. Explication of broad societal goals → displaying different ways of
bringing about these goals
5. Tool for engaging different stakeholders to the planning process.

83. Decide on approach, define domains to be prioritized
and covered
Approach
Normative Normative
Predictive Explorative
preserving transformative
Domain of goals
Culture
Macro economy
Physical structures
Industries,
public organisations
Lifestyles,
households

84. Two approaches for creating
futures scenarios
1.Forecasting
2.Backcasting

85. Space of opportunities
Spa
ce of Core
opport
unities vision
Usual future
perspective
Carbon budget
Peak oil
Now
Now 2050
2050

86. ”The door is closing,” Fatih Birol,
chief economist at the
International Energy Agency,
said. ”I am very worried – if we
don't change direction now on
how we use energy, we will end up
beyond what scientists tell us is
the minimum [for safety]. The
door will be closed forever.”
9.11.2011

87. Space of opportunities
Usual future
perspective
Now 2050
Spa
ce of Core
Future opport
unities vision
perspective
with system
boundaries Carbon budget
Peak oil
Now 2050

88. Decisions
Future 1
Unexpected
events
Future 2
Drivers
Trends Scenarios
Future 3
Emerging
patterns
Future 4
2011 2020 2030 2050
Scenarios: forecasting

89. Goals,
Boundary
Unexpected
events
conditions
Decisions
Future 1
Future 2
Drivers
Scenarios Future 3
Promising
practices Future 4
2011 2020 2030 2050
Visions + backcasting process

90. Forecasting Backcasting
Context of justification Context of discovery
Philosophical view causality determinism Causality and intentions
Societal problem in need of a solution
Dominant trends
Desirable futures
Likely futures
Perspective Possible marginal adjustments
Scope of human choice
Streategic decisions
how to adapt to trends
Retain freedom of action
Define interesting futures
Extrapolate trends into the future
Approach Sensitivity analyses
Analyse consequences and conditions
for these futures to materialise
partial and conditional extrapolations
Methods and Various econometric models Normative models, system dynamics
techniques mathematical algorithms models, Delphi methods, expert
judgements

91. Backcasting process

92. Backcasting process
1. Define goals

93. Backcasting process
1. Define goals
2. Investigate the goal (is it really transformative)

94. Backcasting process
1. Define goals
2. Investigate the goal (is it really transformative)
3. Images of the future

95. Backcasting process
1. Define goals
2. Investigate the goal (is it really transformative)
3. Images of the future
4. Analyze the paths to futures, where are the trend breaks

96. Multilevel model of social innovation

97. Multilevel model of social innovation
Promising
Promising practice III
practice V Promising
practice VII
Promising Promising
practice IV practice II Promising
Promising
practice I
practice VI

98. Multilevel model of social innovation
Promising
Promising practice III
practice V Promising
practice VII
Promising Promising
practice IV practice II Promising
Promising
practice I
practice VI

99. Multilevel model of social innovation
Promising
s level
Promising practice III
Promising
Niche
practice V
practice VII
Promising Promising
practice IV practice II Promising
Promising
practice I
practice VI

100. Multilevel model of social innovation
Embedding Multiplying Up scaling
Promising
s level
Promising practice III
Promising
Niche
practice V
practice VII
Promising Promising
practice IV practice II Promising
Promising
practice I
practice VI

101. Multilevel model of social innovation
Markets, Science,
Policie Markets, Science,
Markets, Science, Policies
Policies
Embedding Multiplying Up scaling
Promising
s level
Promising practice III
Promising
Niche
practice V
practice VII
Promising Promising
practice IV practice II Promising
Promising
practice I
practice VI

102. Multilevel model of social innovation
Regim e level Markets, Science,
Policie Markets, Science,
Markets, Science, Policies
Policies
Embedding Multiplying Up scaling
Promising
s level
Promising practice III
Promising
Niche
practice V
practice VII
Promising Promising
practice IV practice II Promising
Promising
practice I
practice VI

103. Multilevel model of social innovation
e level
ndscap Societal values, overall paradigms, megatrends
La
Regim e level Markets, Science,
Policie Markets, Science,
Markets, Science, Policies
Policies
Embedding Multiplying Up scaling
Promising
s level
Promising practice III
Promising
Niche
practice V
practice VII
Promising Promising
practice IV practice II Promising
Promising
practice I
practice VI

104. How to use futures studies in urban planning?
1. Occasional backcasting exercises to test feasibility of existing plans
2. Participatory scenario processes for communicating and creating
discussion with stakeholders on strategic plans
3. Continuous collection of signals of change through Delphi surveys
and other forms of expert judgement studies

105. Examples of scenarios on
futures of urban areas and
lifestyles

106. The Metka model

107. Population,
housing, services
Transportation
Environment
Economics,
businesses,
employment

118. SCENARIOS ON
SUSTAINABLE
LIFESTYLES

119. within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-
sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out
how.
Pandemic
technology
Meritocracy Human-
centrism
Endemic
technology
| SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050

120. ratic
ciety
Local loops
Meritocracy The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Human-
Happy Communities
Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare
centrism
Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being
Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new
innovations just like anybody else.
Different areas command different economic and technological
systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar-
In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized
their own combination of influential professional groups. Local Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input.
professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People
agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then
is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources
Endemic
created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles.
Endemic
Endemic technology
READ Sustainable lifestyles 2050
technology
Technology
Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011
| SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050

121. Start here!
Starting point for your alternative futures
The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards These landscapes are based on two fundamental
workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on assumptions of variables that define societies.
future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these The assumptions are:
scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four
Technology is either pandemic or endemic.
future landscapes through which the scenarios are
constructed. The governing principle of the society is either
human-centric or meritocratic.
We believe that sustainable societies are achievable
within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-
sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out
how.
Pandemic
Pandemic
technology
Technology Pandemic
technology
The Singular Super Elite Governing the Commons
Human-
Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are
The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain-
formed based on personal interests, values, and motives.
Meritocracy
able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century.
Communities with a strong bond can shape society from
Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills,
centrism
unexpected angles and redefine their professional and
and solutions in society are globally applicable
leisure identities.
business models.
Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills
Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind
can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound-
operates within one techno-economic system, with highly
aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on
standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent
micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech-
and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open
nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of
and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies
interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social
Endemic
and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos-
and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles.
sible.
atic
iety

122. Meritocracy The Singular Super Elite Hum
cent
The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future se
able lifestyles as the market opportunity of t
Innovation is driven by the few with meritab
and solutions in society are globally applica
business models.
Everything has a price and a business model. Th
operates within one techno-economic system, w
Endemic
standardized meters of performance. Society is
and most things have become measurable and most things have a price.
and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading tec
and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable l
technology
sible.
Meritocratic
society
Local loops
The world is build bottom-up by the best engine
Global interaction between people is mediated, n
Some institutions – such as science – remain glo
Different areas command different economic and tech
8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 systems, but are only connected through elites and in
In addition, science dominates global structures. All a
their own combination of influential professional grou
professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the envir
agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most o
is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical con
created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles.

123. ritocracy
Governing the Commons Human-
Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are
formed based on personal interests, values, and motives.
Communities with a strong bond can shape society from
unexpected angles and redefine their professional and
centrism
leisure identities.
Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills
can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound-
Endemic
aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on
micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech-
nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of
interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social
technology
and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles.
Human-centrism
Happy Communities
Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare
state where everyone has a place and way of being
useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new
innovations just like anybody else.
nable lifestyles 2050 If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar-
ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized.
Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input.
There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People
rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then
share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources
form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles.

124. SINGULAR SUPER
CHAMPIONS

125. how.
Meritocracy Hu
A meritocratic society circles around profes- A hu
sional skills. The most commercially valu- ening
Pandemic Human-
able professional skills are engines of the Both
+ Meritocracy
economy. Holders of those professions are Every
being paid accordingly. Policies and struc- to do
technology centrism
tures of society are customized to facilitate
work of the leading industries and profes-
sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You
mem
famil
als. T
do only what you’re really good at. impro
appr
Human- Endemic
tion,
cy what
Pandemic
technology
centrism
The Singular Super Elite
The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain-
technologythe Commons Endemic technolog
Governing
Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are
formed based on personal interests, values, and motives.
able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. The tools, infrastructures, and solutions we
Communities with a strong bond can shape society from
Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills,
unexpected angles and redefine their professional and technology harnesses
and grown locally:
and solutions in society are globally applicable
tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local
Endemic
leisure identities.
business models.
tions rule technology. Where there is woo
Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills
Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind
can be used to kick start large scale globallogs – where days are extremely ho
built of projects. Clear bound-
8|
technology
operates within one techno-economic system, with highly
SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on
in tents. The corpus of global science an
standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent
micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech-
and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open
nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a applications are highly local.
is wide, yet wide array of
and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies
interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in efficiency and innovations ga
is driven by creating social
and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos-
and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles.
sible. thinking locally.
Meritocratic
society Human-centrism
Local loops Happy Communities Counting Backwards Workshop 24
The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare
Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being
Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new
innovations just like anybody else.
Different areas command different economic and technological
systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar-
In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized.
their own combination of influential professional groups. Local Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input.
professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People
agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then
is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources
created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles.
Endemic
technology
10 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 11

126. The Singular Super Elite
The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see s
able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this
Innovation is driven by the few with meritable s
and solutions in society are globally applicable
business models.
Everything has a price and a business model. The h
operates within one techno-economic system, with
standardized meters of performance. Society is tran
and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Dat
and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading techn
and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifes
sible.
c
y

127. KEY DRIVERS OF SINGULAR
SUPER ELITE
1. Major changes in production structures through EU
policy shift (policy)
Evidence based policy-making gains prominence after the political turbulence within the Euro area
which closes ties of politics and research in forming policies.
Remarkable boom in efficiency and renewables in China.Vitality of renewables is coming very largely
from the vibrant private sector and not from the state-owned enterprises.
2. Price mechanism, it works! (economy)
Pressure to run down technologically and ecologically outdated production processes and eliminate
expensive and harmful incentives through cutting economic subsidies (e.g. fuel subsidies) and
internalizing ecological costs in prices.
3. Sustainability makes money (technology)
Thanks to major leaps in technology, first cost-effective large scale upcycling processes are launched
in the global markets. Enterprises start develop around provision and distribution of resources.
Cradle to cradle is the fastest growing area of research.
4. Learning, not earning (values)
Education not only in classroom. Aims to provide the kids as early as possible with the cognitive
tools that will enable them to take more ethical decisions and think critically on subjects.
Competitiveness is nurtured as it’s seen as the only way to compete on global markets.
Self-mastery becomes the new sport and hobby. People’s freetime is spent in learning institutions.

128. THESE DRIVERS RESULT SUCH
BITS OF LIFESTYLES AS...
Retail companies have personal balance sheet for customers
own natural resources in their possession. Extreme loyalty
schemes.
Everywhere in the city, you have diffused education. Not only
schools, but in society as whole. For instance, you can
educate yourself in shops, the shops enable you to learn by
providing information about the products and processes etc.
If you want to eat special things, you learn how to cook it.
Learning restaurants instead of consuming restaurants.
Micro-agriculture compact and densify cities. Evaluating all
built and unbuilt land based on their food production potential
is standard part of urban planning.Urban farmer is a common
profession.

129. GOVERNING THE
COMMONS

130. Pandemic + Human-
Meritocracy
technology centrism
Human-
Endemic
Pandemic
Meritocracy
technology
The Singular Super Elite Governing the Commons
The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain-
able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century.
Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills,
and solutions in society are globally applicable
centrism
technology Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are
formed based on personal interests, values, and motives.
Communities with a strong bond can shape society from
unexpected angles and redefine their professional and
leisure identities.
business models.
Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills
Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind
can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound-
operates within one techno-economic system, with highly
aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on
Endemic
standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent
micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech-
and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open
nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of
and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies
interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social
and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos-
8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050
and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles.
technology
sible.
Meritocratic
society Human-centrism
Local loops Happy Communities
The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare
Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being
Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new
innovations just like anybody else.
Different areas command different economic and technological
8|
systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions.
SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050
In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have
their own combination of influential professional groups. Local
If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar-
ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized.
Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input.
professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People
agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then
is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources
created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles.
Endemic
technology
10 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 11

131. Governing the Commons
Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are
formed based on personal interests, values, and motives.
Communities with a strong bond can shape society from
unexpected angles and redefine their professional and
leisure identities.
Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills
can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound-
aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on
micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech-
nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of
interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social
and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles.
Happy Communities

132. KEY DRIVERS OF DRIVERS OF
GOVERNING THE COMMONS
1. 3D printing changes the structures of production
and consumption (technology)
2. Ubiquitous society increases the amount of human
interaction through p2p-services and digital
environments (social, technology)
3. People want more meaningful jobs and welfare that
goes beyond 20th century welfare (values)
4. Overwhelming amount of scientific data translates
into decline popularity of religions (values)

133. THESE DRIVERS RESULT SUCH
BITS OF LIFESTYLES AS...
People learn various skills in order to be sure that they can do whatever tasks necessary and
thus guarantee their impact in building the society. (Source of human value)
Work week is 4 days and people can divide it however they please. (Leisure time)
Most of the day I offer my input to various processes of co-production (eg. when in bus I
answer few queries about my preferences and thus help the company). (Society, Time usage)
People are constantly linked to different institutes and people worldwide. This leads to active
ways of governance. (Political decision making)
A lot of effort to building personal virtual environment to be as pleasant as possible. Premium
services of FB, Twitter etc. become must haves. (Technology, Social Bonds)
Internet and web-based solutions in everyday-life arrangements will be growing in importance
leading to less need to leave home to take care of things. (Leisure time, Technology)
People actively shape their surroundings through action. Every morning I answer a question
that someone from my interest group has posted and those decision shape the surroundings.
(Living Environment)
Every action produces a counter-reaction and interest groups are formed by these contexts.
During a day I’m part of 9 different groups.

134. LOCAL LOOPS

135. Start here!
Starting point for your alternative futures
The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards These landscapes are based on two fundamental
workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on assumptions of variables that define societies.
StartSingular Super Elite
The here!
Pandemic
technology
future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these The assumptions are:
scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four Governing the Commons
Technology is either pandemic or endemic.
future landscapes through which the scenarios are Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are
constructed.
The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- The governing principle of the society is either personal interests, values, and motives.
formed based on
able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century.
human-centric or meritocratic.
Starting point for your alternative futures
Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills,
and solutions in society are globally applicable
Communities with a strong bond can shape society from
unexpected angles and redefine their professional and
business models. We believe that sustainable societies are achievable
leisure identities.
he goal of the SPREAD 2050Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind
Counting backwards These landscapes all the fouron two fundamental Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills
within are based alternative future landscapes (pre-
can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound-
workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on system, with highly
operates within one techno-economic assumptions of variables that define societies. task is of work andout have been replaced by spending time on
sented on the next opening). Your aries to find leisure
standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent
uture of sustainablethings have become measurable and most things have a price. The assumptions are:
and most lifestyles. In order to make these Data is open how. micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech-
nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of
cenarios differ from each every level we have defined four
other, increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos-
and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies
interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social A mer
and competition on Technology is either pandemic or endemic.innovations for sustainable lifestyles.
and technological sional
uture landscapes through which the scenarios are
sible.
Pandemic
onstructed.
Meritocratic The governing principle of the society is either able p
society Human-centrism
human-centric or meritocratic. econo
being
technology
We believe that sustainable societies are achievable
tures
Local loops Happy Communities
within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-
sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out
work
The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare sions.
how.
Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being
Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new A meritocratic onl do soc
innovations just like anybody else.
sional skills. The
Human-
Different areas command different economic and technological
Pandemic
systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- able professional
Meritocracy
In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized.
their own combination of influential professional groups. Local Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. economy. Holders
centrism
professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People
being paid accor
technology
agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then
is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources tures of society a
created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles.
Endemic work of the lead
technology
sions. Division of l
do only what you’r
10 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 11
Endemic
Human-
Meritocracy + technology
centrism

136. Local loops
Elderlyhouses turned into future "business parks". Workforce and expertice is
The world is build bottom-u
there, capital and business intelligence is only needed.
Microcurrencies shape to form microsocieties.interaction between p
Global
Old people want to remain active both sociallyinstitutions – and use the
Some and in terms of work such as
skills they have developed earlier.
a re-awakening of the desire for a sense of community.
Different areas command differ
The state is a less secure source of support, so elderly
are relying systems, butnot others.
on themselves and are only connecte
scarcity of resources, communities that grow their own food anddominates
In addition, science energy
their own combination of influe
End of the oil and coal era, big investments to local renewable energy resources.
Decentralised electricity production become cheaper and more secure than
centralized fossile-based production in therefore both the innovation
professional guilds are 2020.
Link to local/micro entrepreneurs ... Common and shared rarely to the wo
agent. Local material flows circulate goods owned by small
local communities: high efficiencylocal resources.on demand.
is produced through appliances. Production Understanding

137. KEY DRIVERS OF LOCAL LOOPS
1. Fierce global resource competition and peak oil
(environment)
2. Harnessing various kinds of local resources through
advanced technology (technology)
3. 90 degrees turn in value patterns towards localism
(values)
4. New notion of work (social)

138. THESE DRIVERS RESULT SUCH
BITS OF LIFESTYLES AS...
People form guilds with their professional peers.
Majority of population live in neighborhoods that are defined according their own profession
and guild. People spend great part of their leisure time within their neighborhood. However,
people work long hours and very often consider their fellow guild members as their closest
friends.
Extreme division of labour means that people don’t do very many things – cleaning,
maintaining of home devices, elderly care – themselves but instead rely very much on
professional services.
The concept of retiring has ceased to exist. The role of seniors is to transfer their
professional experience and tacit knowledge much more comprehensively than in 2012.
Efficient local resource and cradle-to-cradle thinking have led to highly diverse ways of
consumption. People want to be aware of the local life cycles of goods they consume. Global
franchices don’t exist any more.

139. EMPATHIC
COMMUNITIES

140. Happy Communities
Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare
state where everyone has a place and way of being
useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new
innovations just like anybody else.
If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar-
ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized.
Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input.
There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People
rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then
share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources
form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles.
Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuu