Velocity is one of the most common metrics used-and one of the most commonly misused-on agile projects. Velocity is simply a measurement of speed in a given direction-the rate at which a team is delivering toward a product release. As with a vehicle en route to a particular destination, increasing the speed may appear to ensure a timely arrival. However, that assumption is dangerous because it ignores the risks with higher speeds. And while it’s easy to increase a vehicle’s speed, where exactly is the accelerator on a software team? Michael “Doc" Norton walks us through the Hawthorne Effect and Goodhart’s Law to explain why setting goals for velocity can actually hurt a project's chances. Take a look at what can negatively impact velocity, ways to stabilize fluctuating velocity, and methods to improve velocity without the risks. Leave with a toolkit of additional metrics that, coupled with velocity, give a better view of the project's overall health.

1. Velocity Is NOT
the Goal
Michael “Doc” Norton :: Groupon :: @DocOnDev
Agile Metrics

2. Velocity Is NOT the Goal
Agile Metrics
Doc Norton!
Global Director of Engineering Culture!
doc@groupon.com | @DocOnDev

3. Velocity Is NOT
the Goal
Michael “Doc” Norton :: Groupon :: @DocOnDev
Agile Metrics

4. Velocity Is NOT
the Goal

5. Velocity

6. Velocity

7. What’s Velocity?

8. Work Units / Time

9. Lagging Indicator

10. Measure of a Complex System

11. Lagging Indicator for a Complex System

12. A Tale of Two
Velocities

13. A
10, 11, 9, 10
B
7, 14, 6, 10
Disclaimer

14. A
10, 11, 9, 10
Yesterday’s Weather: 10
B
7, 14, 6, 10
Yesterday’s Weather: 10

15. A
10, 11, 9, 10
Yesterday’s Weather: 10
Rolling Average: 10
B
7, 14, 6, 10
Yesterday’s Weather: 10
Rolling Average: 10

16. A
10, 11, 9, 10
Yesterday’s Weather: 10
Rolling Average: 10
Std. Deviation: 0.7
B
7, 14, 6, 10
Yesterday’s Weather: 10
Rolling Average: 10
Std. Deviation: 3.1

17. A
10, 11, 9, 10
Yesterday’s Weather: 10
Rolling Average: 10
Std. Deviation: 0.7
Next: 9.3-10.7
B
7, 14, 6, 10
Yesterday’s Weather: 10
Rolling Average: 10
Std. Deviation: 3.1
Next: 6.9-13.1

18. The Need for Speed

20. The Hawthorn Effect

21. That which is measured,
will improve

22. That which is measured,
will improve
... at a cost

23. Goodhart’s Law

24. When a measure becomes a
target, it ceases to be a
good measure

25. Perverse Incentives

26. ... an unintended result,
contrary to interests of the
incentive makers

27. Dr. Deming
“What matters is not
setting quantitative
goals but fixing the
method by which
those goals are
attained”

28. What causes variable
Velocity?

29. Time Poorly Spent

30. Dependency on Other Teams

31. Poor Story Composition

32. Too Much Work In Progress

33. Scatter
Diagrams

34. 0
5000
10000
15000
20000
0 2 4 6 8
Scatter Diagrams
Auto Prices by Year

35. 0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0 25 50 75 100
Scatter Diagrams
Velocity by Complexity

36. 0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Scatter Diagrams
Velocity by Value

37. 0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0 22.5 45 67.5 90
Scatter Diagrams
Velocity by Coverage

38. “Friedman’s Thermostat”

39. Correlation is not causation

40. Correlation is not causation
but it sure is a hint

41. Cumulative
Flow Diagrams

42. Backlog

43. Cumulative Flow Diagram

45. 0
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Velocity Chart

46. Same
Different Perspective
Team
&
Data

47. CFD
0
25
50
75
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Deployed Ready for Approval In Testing In Progress Ready To Start

48. Measure
Many Things

49. Measure Many Things
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity

50. Measure Many Things
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity Quality

51. Measure Many Things
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity Quality Avg. Hours

52. Measure Many Things
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity Quality Avg. Hours Team Joy

53. Real World
Examples

54. Application Performance

55. Velocity w/Std. Deviation

56. Burn w/Std. Deviation

57. Cumulative Flow

58. Team Joy

59. Department Joy

60. One Last
Thing

61. Metrics
are not for
Managers

62. Metrics
are for
Teams

63. Velocity Is NOT the Goal
Agile Metrics
Doc Norton!
Global Director of Engineering Culture!
doc@groupon.com | @DocOnDev