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Workforce Labor Demands, Studies & Forecasts - PART 4
1.
2. 1.
Managing
your
workforce
with
data
2.
Quan7ta7vely
characterizing
your
skilled
workforce
3.
Selected
case
studies
Appendix
A
–
Further
case
studies
Appendix
B
–
About
Alvarez
&
Marsal
Appendix
C
–
Speaker
bio
3. Ongoing
data
capture
and
analysis
is
crucial
A
sound
approach
combines
demand
forecas7ng
with
the
talent
supply
chain
with
the
intent
of
allowing
companies
to
dynamically
align
talent
with
current
and
future
business
needs
3
Key
elements
of
a
sound
manpower
planning
approach
include:
1. Understanding
Demand
Pipeline
Characteris=cs:
Using
quan7ta7ve
and
qualita7ve
data
to
analyze
and
gain
insights
into
the
characteris7cs
of
the
demand
pipeline.
2. Quan=fying
Work/Project
Requirements:
Capturing,
qualifying
and
quan7fying
project
management
requirements
such
as
the
type
and
quan7ty
of
capabili7es
needed
and
the
7ming
needs
for
resources.
3. Understanding
Complex
Internal
Talent
Dynamics:
Using
available
data
to
build
a
picture
of
talent
dynamics
and
shine
a
light
on
areas
such
as
staff
availability,
under/over
u7liza7on
of
staff,
moves
between
projects
and
staff
turnover.
4. Quan=fying
the
Talent
Gap
and
Taking
Ac=on:
Assessing
both
sides
of
the
talent
supply
and
demand
equa7on
to
iden7fy
ac7ons
needed
to
close
gaps.
4. Managing
the
workforce
takes
a
structured
plan
A
best
prac7ce
is
to
work
closely
with
project
management
leaders
to
iden7fy
what
companies
do
well
and
combine
that
with
industry
standard
protocols
to
develop
a
solu7on
that
meets
their
long
term
needs
Startup
• Develop
project
plan
and
gather
data
• Develop
transforma7on
plan
Evaluate/
Document
Current
State
• Analyze
resource
porPolio,
pipeline
and
churn
for
roles,
skills
and
capabili7es
• Analyze
present
and
future
project
characteris7cs
• Document
current
state
• Evaluate
key
stakeholders
for
transforma7on
readiness
Define
Future
State
Requirements
and
Path
Forward
• Define
model
to
simulate
and
predict
talent
porPolio/
pipeline
demand
scenarios
• Priori7ze
opportuni7es
• Develop
future
requirements
Deliverables
• Project
plan
• Transforma7on
plan
• Key
inputs
to
planning
model
• Conceptual
design
and
roadmap
Build
Future
State
Process
• Develop
manpower
planning
model
and
standardized
processes
• Validate
new
model
and
processes
with
key
stakeholders
• Develop
communica7on
and
training
plan
• Prepare
for
pilot
Conduct
Pilot
and
Incorporate
Required
Changes
• Perform
pilot
and
document
key
findings
and
lessons
learned
• Adjust
model
and
process
to
incorporate
findings
and
lessons
learned
• Use
available
data
to
test
model
effec7veness
• Develop
implementa7on
plan
Deliverables
• Finalized
planning
model
• Documented
standardized
manpower
planning
process
• Implementa7on
plan:
training,
communica7ons,
transforma7on,
etc…
Train,
Deploy
and
Support
Solu=on
• Deploy
training
for
model
and
process
• Implement
standardized
approach
for
manpower
planning
model
and
process
• Implement
process
for
feedback
and
alignment
with
future
needs
Using
model
outputs,
develop
gap
analysis
• Assess
talent
shortage
and
surplus
to
project
pipeline
• Iden7fy
strategies
required
to
address
gaps
• Develop
manpower
plan
to
address
immediate
and
longer
term
needs
Deliverables
• Manpower
demand
forecast
• Finalized
list
of
key
demand
influencing
variables
• Manpower
plan
Phase
One
Assess
and
Define
Phase
Two
Build
and
Pilot
Phase
Three
Deploy
and
Sustain
Stakeholder
Engagement
and
Transforma=on
Management
4
5. Project
Prioritization
& Planning
Process
A
key
enabler
of
our
approach
–
Our
own
model
Our
model
integrates
availability
of
resources
with
an7cipated
demand
for
projects
and
addresses
numerous
other
factors
Pipeline
of
Projects
Available
Resources
Project
Type “A”
Project
Type “B”
Project
Type “C”
Project
Type “D”
Project
Type “E”
Resource
Type “5”
Resource
Type “4”
Resource
Type “3”
Resource
Type “2”
Resource
Type “1”
§ Different Resources may be grouped by Type, based on
skills, experience, etc.
§ Within each Type group the availability of resources will vary
based on factors such as current project workload and
timing, hiring plan, contractor availability, etc.
§ Specific Requirements for Types of Resources will likely
vary by Type of project
§ Different projects may have varying priorities based on
expected value, risks, and timing of related or dependent
projects and objectives
Strategic
Goals &
Priorities
Unscheduled
Events
Prioritized List of
Projects & Expected
Resourcing
Resource Utilization
Forecast
with Gaps & Constraints
Identified
5
6. Workforce
modeling
is
an
enabler
of
strategic
planning
Tradi7onally,
companies
in
the
oil
&
gas
industry
take
ac7on
reac7vely,
moving
quickly
to
cut
costs.
With
a
workforce
planning
model,
you
can
act
on
insights
that
take
into
account
the
long-‐term
view.
6
Model
Past
project
data
Compiling
past
project
data
offers
the
chance
to
revisit
lapses
and
capture
best
prac=ces
The
results
can
be
used
to
guide
your
organiza=on’s
strategy
The
model
then
lays
bare
both
shortages
and
surpluses
by
labor
type
Scenario
analysis
Strategic
hiring
Project
targe=ng
7. Tools
produced
to
support
workforce
planning
Workforce
management
requires
robust
documenta7on
Resource
Discipline
Defini/ons
&
Mapping
Project
Categoriza/on
&
Resource
Requirement
Modeling
Project
Staffing
and
Organiza/on
Structures
Resource
U/liza/on
Forecasts
&
Planning
Historical
Project
Performance
and
Demand
Forecas/ng
7
8. Background
• Client
is
a
leading
Engineering,
Procurement
&
Construc7on
firm
that
focuses
on
complex
systems
for
floa7ng
oil
&
gas
produc7on
vessels
in
all
water
depths
from
shallow
to
ultra
deep
water.
Individual
projects
can
take
years
to
design
and
build
and
can
be
valued
in
the
hundreds
of
millions
of
dollars.
• Client
needed
assistance
with
project
planning,
organiza7onal
design
and
manpower
planning
• This
represented
the
largest
and
most
complex
project
they
had
ever
undertaken
and
would
require
over
130
resources
that
would
func7on
as
a
team
for
approximately
three
years.
A&M
Role
• A&M’s
role
was
to
design
and
build
a
fully
capable
project
management
team,
organiza7on
structure
and
policies
&
procedures
that
would
enable
all
aspects
of
project
execu7on
and
organiza7on
setup.
• The
A&M
team
did
this
by:
– Analyzing
thousands
of
pages
of
contract
requirements
to
determine
all
that
were
applicable
to
the
project
management
effort
– Developing
an
organiza7on
structure,
roles
and
responsibili7es
and
procedures
for
the
overall
effort
including
project
management,
various
engineering
disciplines,
project
controls,
procurement,
document
control
,
IT
and
HR.
– Procurement
organiza7on
design
as
well
as
policy/procedure
crea7on
were
from
the
ground
up
and
assumed
no
legacy
capability.
– A
cri7cal
success
factor
in
this
effort
was
that
the
project
organiza7on
had
to
be
responsive
to
mul7ple
stakeholder
groups
including
the
state
owned
natural
gas
company,
the
European
E&P
operator
and
the
consor7um
construc7on
partners.
Complica7ng
factors
for
the
project
organiza7on
included
the
need
to
deal
with
stakeholder
groups
with
poten7ally
conflic7ng
interest,
challenging
consor7um
group
members
and
several
different
languages
and
cultures.
Outcome
• A&M
successfully
compiled
project
management
requirements,
developed
a
unified
organiza7on
structure
that
equipped
the
client
to
ramp
up
quickly
and
immediately
begin
execu7ng
the
one
hundred
day
plan
followed
by
subsequent
plans
for
building
out
various
sub-‐teams
according
to
the
design
engineering
schedules.
• Key
learnings
from
this
exercise
served
as
a
basis
for
enhancing
client’s
exis7ng
project
management
structure
and
processes
for
other
projects.
Capital
project
design
and
staffing
EPC
Project
Management
Design
and
Manpower
Planning
8
9. Background
• Large
privately
owned
construc7on
company
that
offers
general
construc7on,
project
management
and
construc7on
management
services.
• Demand
for
skilled
crah
labor
across
the
Company’s
various
business
units
is
expected
to
increase,
while
the
market
availability
of
these
trades
con7nue
to
come
under
pressure.
In
2005,
the
company
processed
approximately
25,000-‐30,000
crah
posi7ons
and
the
specific
crah
posi7ons
and
needs
will
vary
from
job
to
job
as
well
as
across
the
Business
units
• A&M
was
asked
to
review
the
exis7ng
crah
employment
processes
and
iden7fy
issues
associated
with
current
prac7ces
and
develop
recommenda7ons
to
improve
the
crah
employment
processes
in
light
of
the
7ghtening
labor
market
and
forecast
increase
in
demand
for
these
skills.
A&M
Role
• Working
with
Employee
Rela7ons
and
the
Business
Units
to
assess
the
standard
business
processes
/
policies,
organiza7on
structure
and
suppor7ng
tools
• Developing
alterna7ves
and
recommenda7ons
for
improvement
across
the
following
crah
employment
ac7vi7es:
Resource
Planning,
Requisi7on,
Selec7on,
Hiring,
Reten7on,
Jobsite
Onboarding,
and
Termina7on
• Conduc7ng
over
100
interviews
with
client
personnel/execu7ves,
distribu7ng
an
employee
survey
to
2,000
crah
laborers,
and
analyzing
detailed
sta7s7cal
data
Outcome
• Developed
nearly
40
detailed
recommenda7ons
and
presented
them
to
the
Client’s
top
execu7ves
• Completely
redesigned
resource
planning,
recrui7ng/sourcing
process
• Implemented
a
global
real-‐7me
labor
forecast
of
supply/demand
of
crah
laborers
• Created
a
redeployment
process
designed
to
quickly
and
efficiently
move
crah
laborers
from
one
project
to
the
next
• Substan7ally
reduced
turnover
of
high
performing
crah
laborers
Resourcing
process
improvement
Large
engineering
and
construc7on
company
9
11. Project
demand
forecas7ng
Oilfield
services
technology,
manufacturing
and
administra7ve
facili7es
Background
• Client
is
a
global
oilfield
services
company,
and
provides
a
wide
range
of
services
to
oil
&
gas
developers
around
the
globe.
The
Client’s
real
estate
group
manages
facili7es
around
the
world,
including
dozens
of
facili7es
dedicated
to
manufacturing
and
technology
development.
• Iden7fying
and
execu7ng
new
projects
was
ohen
a
very
reac7ve
process,
with
key
stakeholders
only
iden7fying
the
need
for
addi7onal
capacity
or
loca7ons
once
facility
constraints
were
painfully
evident.
• Client
needed
to
develop
a
more
strategic
approach
to
assessing
current
capacity
against
projected
future
needs
of
the
business
in
order
to
beker
plan
for
real
estate
projects,
par7cularly
in
Manufacturing
and
Technology,
as
well
as
administra7ve
transac7on
facili7es
for
func7ons
such
as
finance,
HR,
and
procurement.
A&M
Role
• A&M’s
role
was
to
develop
a
more
proac7ve
and
strategic
approach
for
engaging
selected
func7onal
groups
in
order
to
beker
understand
their
current
and
future
needs,
and
to
become
a
more
strategic
partner
with
a
view
into
poten7al
needs
looking
out
3-‐5
years
in
the
future.
• The
A&M
team
did
this
by:
– Interviewing
key
stakeholders
to
understand
the
underlying
drivers
of
their
resource
and
personnel
requirements,
and
ul7mately
their
need
for
facili7es.
– Analyzing
current
and
historical
data
for
real
estate
facili7es,
including
quan7ta7ve
and
qualita7ve
assessments
of
u7liza7on
and
the
overall
performance
of
facili7es
in
mee7ng
the
needs
of
stakeholders.
– Developing
and
tes7ng
a
methodology
for
modeling
personnel
and
space
requirements
for
different
func7onal
groups
in
order
to
assess
the
poten7al
need
for
new
facili7es
over
the
next
3-‐5
years.
– In
addi7on,
assisted
key
stakeholders
in
iden7fying
some
simplified
approaches
for
analyzing
and
forecas7ng
their
own
internal
resource
requirements
based
on
overall
strategic
forecasts
for
the
company.
Outcome
• Developing
and
pilo7ng
the
new
approach
to
engaging
key
stakeholders
helped
them
understand
their
own
role
in
assessing
the
longer
term
strategic
needs
in
terms
of
new
facili7es.
• Key
boklenecks
and
poten7al
capacity
constraints
were
iden7fied,
enabling
the
real
estate
group
to
proac7vely
engage
stakeholders
in
assessing
the
need
for
poten7al
projects
well
in
advance
of
when
projects
would
need
to
be
executed.
• Several
key
stakeholders
also
realized
that
they
could
use
these
tools
and
approaches
to
beker
forecast
their
own
internal
resource
needs.
11
12. Local
content
development
Large
upstream
oil
&
gas
operator
with
opera7ons
in
West
Africa
Background
• Client
is
an
oil
and
gas
company
building
opera7ons
in
West
Africa
A&M
Role
• A&M’s
role
was
to
develop
a
long-‐term
organiza7onal
structure
and
human
resource
development
strategy
and
plan
to
address
growth
goals
while
maintaining
compliance
with
local
needs
• The
A&M
team
did
this
by:
– Developing
and
execu7ng
viable
long-‐term
hiring/training
plan
and
organiza7onal
structure
to
meet
expanding
opera7onal
needs
in
Angola
– Integra7ng
compliance
and
“Angolaniza7on”
efforts
into
hiring
plan
and
long-‐term
business
strategy
– Building
near
and
long-‐term
resourcing
model
to
address
short
term
and
longer
term
recrui7ng
and
training
needs
– Assis7ng
client
with
recruitment
ini7a7ves
to
acquire
capable
resources
in
compe77ve
market
– Developed
professional
career
plans
for
18
Job
Families
and
over
70
W
Africa
job
descrip7ons
– Facilita7ng
crea7on
and
execu7on
of
training
and
development
plans
for
local
employees
to
promote
professional
growth
– Developing
key
processes
for
the
transfer
of
knowledge
from
supervisors
to
trainees
– Planned
/
coordinated
ELITE
Career
Fair
in
Angola
(designed
brochures,
graphics,
giveaways,
processed
resumes,
etc.)
– Began
local
training
vendor
research
–
related
to
Contract
Program
requirements
– Ensuring
compliance
of
client’s
HR
ac7vi7es
in
Luanda
with
all
regulatory
agencies
– Preparing
documents,
presenta7ons,
and
templates
outlining
client’s
current
and
future
state
objec7ves
for
submission
to
regulatory
bodies
Outcome
• A&M
successfully
completed
the
ac7vi7es
above
and
con7nues
to
manage
the
overall
resourcing
plans,
training
and
development
and
recrui7ng
strategies
in-‐country
to-‐date.
12
14. 14
About
Alvarez
&
Marsal
For
more
than
25
years,
Alvarez
&
Marsal
has
set
the
standard
for
working
with
organiza7ons
to
tackle
complex
business
issues,
boost
opera7ng
performance
and
maximize
stakeholder
value.
About A&M
Founded
in
1983
by
co-‐CEOs
Tony
Alvarez
II
and
Bryan
Marsal
2,300+
professionals
39
ci7es;
16
na7ons;
4
con7nents
300+
Managing
Directors
North
America
New
York
(Global
HQ)
Atlanta
Birmingham
Boston
Charlotte
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Detroit
Houston
Kansas City
Los Angeles
Miami
Nashville
Philadelphia
Phoenix
San
Antonio
San
Francisco
Seakle
Toronto
Vancouver
Washington,
D.C.
Europe and the Middle East
London (European HQ)
Amsterdam
Dubai
Madrid
Milan
Latin America
São Paulo (Latin American HQ)
Bogotá
Asia
Hong Kong (Asian HQ)
Beijing
Mumbai
Seoul
Shanghai
Mexico
City
Moscow
Munich
Paris
Warsaw
14
16. • David
Vaucher,
a
Director
with
Alvarez
&
Marsal
in
Houston,
specializes
in
upstream
opera7ons
and
opera7onal
costs.
Mr.
Vaucher’s
insights
on
costs
in
the
oil
&
gas
industry
and
opera7ons
to
support
shale
oil
&
gas
development
in
North
America
have
been
sought
out
and
published
by
global
news
organiza7ons
such
as
Thomson
Reuters,
The
Wall
Street
Journal
(La7n
America),
the
Financial
Times
and
The
Economist,
and
local
ones
such
as
the
Houston
Chronicle
and
the
San
Antonio
Express
News.
• Mr.
Vaucher
has
deep
technical
knowledge
of
oil
&
gas
workover
ac7vi7es,
and
has
published
and
presented
several
Society
of
Petroleum
Engineers
(SPE)
papers
on
this
topic.
He
has
years
of
hands-‐on
field
experience,
and
is
highly
knowledgeable
about
comple7on
tools
generally,
and
“thru-‐tubing”
interven7on
tools
specifically.
• Prior
to
joining
Alvarez
&
Marsal,
Mr.
Vaucher
worked
for
IHS
where
he
managed
the
Upstream
Opera7ng
Cost
Analysis
Service
and
was
instrumental
in
driving
the
product’s
growth,
whose
membership
more
than
doubled
during
his
tenure.
His
biggest
contribu7on
was
spearheading
the
year-‐long
effort
to
forecast
opera7ng
cost
escala7ons
for
every
single
market
in
the
cost
service
for
over
a
dozen
countries,
under
all
3
of
IHS’
global
energy
scenarios,
over
a
forecast
period
that
spanned
more
than
two
decades.
• He
began
his
oil
&
gas
career
as
an
engineer
at
Schlumberger
based
in
Texas,
focusing
on
cemen7ng
and
well
construc7on
opera7ons,
and
then
worked
for
TAM
Interna7onal
(a
maker
of
specialty
comple7on
tools)
as
a
Technical
Advisor
suppor7ng
the
company’s
global
field
opera7ons.
• Mr.
Vaucher
is
a
past
editor-‐in-‐chief
of
“The
Way
Ahead”
magazine,
the
SPE’s
official
publica7on
for
young
professionals.
In
this
role
he
managed
a
team
of
45
editors
located
around
the
world
to
deliver
a
publica7on
in
print
and
online
to
roughly
26,000
readers.
He
currently
writes
the
weekly
column
“Building
Hydrocarbon
Bonds”
for
the
Houston
Chronicle,
and
is
the
author
of
the
book
“Drilling
Ahead:
Your
Guide
to
Star7ng,
Building,
and
Securing
a
Career
in
the
Oil
&
Gas
Industry.”
• Mr.
Vaucher
speaks
French
fluently,
and
holds
a
Bachelor
of
Science
degree
in
mechanical
engineering
from
Rice
University,
an
MBA
from
the
University
of
Texas
at
Aus7n,
and
a
Master
of
Engineering
in
petroleum
engineering
from
Texas
A&M
University
at
College
Sta7on.
E-‐mail:
dvaucher@alvarezandmarsal.com
David
Vaucher,
MBA,
MEng
Director
in
Alvarez
&
Marsal’s
Energy
Prac7ce
16