This document summarizes Sudhir Gota's presentation at the Transforming Transportation 2014 conference on crunching numbers for low carbon transport in Asia. It discusses challenges with bottom-up modeling of transportation emissions in countries like India and the Philippines due to limited data availability. It highlights the large mismatches between bottom-up and top-down estimates of emissions and fuel use in India and the Philippines. The presentation emphasizes the importance of improving data collection for developing more accurate bottom-up models and achieving countries' emissions reduction targets.

1. Crunching Numbers for Low Carbon Transport in Asia!
! Presented at Transforming Transportation 2014!
! Sudhir Gota!
! Lee Schipper Scholar (2013)!
Transforming Transportation 2014!

2. Crunching Numbers for Low
Carbon Transport in Asia
Sudhir Gota
Lee Schipper Scholar (2013)
Transforming Transportation
16 January 2014
Washington,D.C.
Lee
Schipper
1947-­‐2011

3. Common sense ?
Brazil = 40-50 million
vehicles
emits 148 MT of CO2
India = 90-100 million
vehicles
emits 145 MT of CO2
“Top-down is accurate while bottom-up estimates unreliable
especially in countries with limited data”
Research objective - How to improve credibility and consistency of
bottom-up modelling in Asia?

4. The Great Indian Mismatch
350
315
300
Bottom-­‐up
M Tons of CO2
250
200
161
150
145
Top-­‐down
100
50
0
1960
Gasoline
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020

5. The Great Indian ‘Diesel’ Mismatch
100
90
80
Bottom-­‐up
70
60
40
calibration
MTOE
50
30
20
Official
Data
10
0
1980
Revised
Official
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Poor data and insights cost - 3-10 billion USD diesel subsidy annually
‘low-hanging fruit’ : Prioritize data collection for Diesel vehicles
2010
2015

6. It’s more ‘efficiency’ in the Philippines?
250
GDP/Capita
200
Vehicles
150
Road
Transport
Fuel
Consumption
100
50
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Department of Energy claims ‘reduction’ due to “Impact of policies”

7. It’s more ‘efficiency’ in the Philippines?
140
120
100
CO2
2-3X
Increase
80
60
DOE 2030
Target
Bottom-up
40
20
Top Down
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
“33%” of fuel sold in the Philippines is smuggled costing 1 billion USD loss of revenues
Top Down estimates are not realistic with ground conditions and aggressive
policies are needed to reach 2030 goals.

8. Cost of “Doing Nothing” in Projects
Impact of the project is compared with a 'no build' / 'without project'/ 'doing nothing'
baseline.
Ahmedabad
Cebu
Guangzhou
Pimpri
2500
Chennai
Bangalore
Ho
Chi
Minh
Manila
2000
1500
1000
500
0
MRT
Costs
(million
USD)
Avoided
Infrastructure
Costs
(million
USD)
avoided road space for a BRT is 2 m2 per rider and Metro is 3 m2per rider.
Baseline - what would 'most likely' happen if this project is not executed

9. Thanks
to
Lee
Schipper,
Lee
Schipper
Memorial
Scholarship
for
Sustainable
Transport
and
Energy,Embarq
and
Clean
Air
Asia
Car
that
absorbs
its
own
carbon
does
not
need
oil
or
cause
congestion?