Irish TIMES Energy Model - Dr. Brian Ó Gallachóir - EPA/SEAI Future Energy Workshop June 2011
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Irish TIMES Energy Model - Dr. Brian Ó Gallachóir - EPA/SEAI Future Energy Workshop June 2011
- 1. Irish TIMES CCRP 2008 3.1 EPA Future Energy Workshop July 1 st 2011 B.P. Ó Gallachóir*, A. Chiodi*, D. Lavigne*, P. Deane*, H.E. Daly*, D. Doyle & M. Gargiulo** *Environmental Research Institute, UCC, Ireland ** e 4sma, Italy
- 3. UCC Energy Policy and Modelling Dr. Brian Ó Gallachóir Principal Investigator Post-Doctoral Researchers Dr. Denis Lavigne (TIMES Energy Modelling) Dr. Ullash Kumar Rout (TIMES Energy Modelling) Aoife Foley (Modelling GHG Impacts of EVs) PhD Students Caiman Cahill (Energy Efficiency Industry) Denis Dineen (Residential Sector) Emer Dennehy (Energy Efficiency Evaluation) Fionn Rogan (Modelling Future Gas Demand) Hannah Daly (Private Car Transport) Declan Doyle (Industry in TIMES) Alessandro Chiodi (2050 Scenarios TIMES) Paul Deane (Pumped hydro in PLEXOS) MEngSc Students Liam McLaughlin (Energy Efficiency Industry) Patrick Calnan (Modelling EVs within PLEXOS)
- 5. Context EU Proposed Pathway
- 6. Context - Ireland EPA. Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections 2010-2020 (2010) 1990 2005 2009 unit Total Emissions 55.6 69.0 62.3 [MtCO2eq] Increase - 24.1% 12.1% 2050 Target 11.1 [MtCO2eq] Reduction -80% -84% -82% 1990 2005 2009 unit Energy-related 30.2 45.0 39.4 [MtCO2eq] Increase - 49.0% 30.5% 2050 Target 6.0 [MtCO2eq] Reduction -80% -87% -85%
- 7. Context – Ireland 2009
- 10. Maximise net social surplus
- 11. TIMES model Remme U. 2007 Overview of TIMES: Parameters, Primal Variables & Equations. Proc. ETSAP Workshop November 2007 Brazil.
- 13. Ocean Energy Production Costs
- 14. Car Transport Activity Costs
- 18. Reference Energy System GNP growth +1.7% p.a.
- 19. REF - Energy CO 2 Emissions IE-REF -23.8% below 2005 +12.2% above 1990 34 Mt
- 20. EM2 -80% Energy CO 2 by 2050 IE-REF IE-80% 6 Mt 34 Mt
- 21. EMX -127% Energy CO 2 by 2050 IE-REF IE-80% IE-127% -8 Mt Food Harvest 2020 Agriculture projected to 2050
- 22. EM3 -95% Energy CO 2 by 2050 IE-REF IE-80% IE-95% 1.5 Mt ≈ -50% Expected reduction from Agriculture
- 24. Total Final Consumption 2050 (compared to 2005) IE-80% = -5.7% (-0.1% p.a.) IE-95% = -9.0% (-0.2% p.a.) GNP growth +1.7% p.a.
- 25. Residential
- 26. Residential
- 27. Transport
- 28. Electrification
- 29. Electrification
- 31. Renewable Energy EM2 73% RES EM3 92% RES
- 32. Marginal Cost of CO 2 Abatement EM2 -80% CO 2
- 33. What will it Cost?
- 34. Investment Costs / GDP
- 36. EN1 Results - RE Modal Split in 2020 RES-T 13% RES-H 20% RES-E 25%
- 37. EM1 – 2020 EU Target
- 38. EM1 – Ireland’s 2020 target
- 39. EM1 – Ireland 2009
- 40. EM1 Results – Electricity Demand
- 41. EM1 Results – RES RES-T 16% RES-H 19% RES-E 22%
- 42. EM1a (-31.5%) Results – Electricity
- 43. EM1a (-31.5%) Results – RES RES-T 22% RES-H 29% RES-E 20%
- 44. EM1a (-31.5%) Results – RES EM1 17% RES EM1a 22% RES
- 46. Marginal Cost of CO 2 abatement
- 47. EM2 & EM1a - Transport
- 48. EM2 & EM1a - Residential
- 49. Marginal Cost of CO 2 Abatement
- 51. Irish TIMES CCRP 2008 3.1 EPA Future Energy Workshop July 1 st 2011 B.P. Ó Gallachóir*, A. Chiodi*, D. Lavigne*, P. Deane*, H.E. Daly*, D. Doyle & M. Gargiulo** *Environmental Research Institute, UCC, Ireland ** e 4sma, Italy
Notas del editor
- Agriculture Combustion (energy) represnt only 2% of emissions Industry (Energy) 14% Non-ETS
- 3. Generates the car stock under different sales scenarios – this scenarios has 10% EVs and CNGVs each in the stock by 2020. TIMES can inform the sales assumptions 4. These lines represent energy demand in “cumulative” scenarios.. Each incorporates the savings of the above scenario.
- GNP + 1.7% p.a.
- -23.8% relative to 2005, +12.2% relative to 1990
- 4.5 Mt reduced by reinforced actions in Energy 9.5 Mt expected reduction from AGR by 2050 (–49% relative to 2005)
- Reduction in RSD (16.9%) and TRA (13.5%)
- Reduction in RSD (16.9%) and TRA (13.5%)
- Role of efficiency___80%: 40% ELC, 34% GAS, 25% RNW___95%: 78% ELC, 15% RNW
- Role of efficiency___80%: 40% ELC, 34% GAS, 25% RNW___95%: 78% ELC, 15% RNW
- Relatively to 2005: Almost doubled the elc use in -80%CO2 (73%), while 1,5 times in 95%CO2 (141%). Electrificarion also in REF (+40%) Relatively to REF increase Industry-RESIDENTIAL-Transport and in 95% also services
- Relatively to 2005: Almost doubled the elc use in -80%CO2 (73%), while 1,5 times in 95%CO2 (141%). Electrificarion also in REF (+40%) Relatively to REF increase Services-RESIDENTIAL-Transport (and Industry) and in 95% also services
- Have feedbacks on this graph and mostly on RES-T -80% RES: more than 70%; -95% RES: almost 90%
- Discuss if is better to leave ou some of the data