1) Life expectancy is often misunderstood and misused in clinical practice, as it does not guarantee how long a particular patient will live and is actually a median, not a mean or individual prediction. 2) Clinician estimates of patient life expectancy tend to be overly optimistic and inaccurate compared to statistical models. 3) The document recommends using models built on clinical data that adjust life expectancy based on early mortality risks and comorbidities, such as the MSKCC nomogram, rather than relying solely on clinician guesses.

2. Peter Bach

11. Median: 78 Mean: 75

12. Probability of survival of men at age 70 (life expectancy of 13 years)

13. Which is why you shouldn’t use life expectancy

25. . Walz J et al. JCO 2007;25:3576-3581 ©2007 by American Society of Clinical Oncology

26. . Walz J et al. JCO 2007;25:3576-3581 ©2007 by American Society of Clinical Oncology

27. . Walz J et al. JCO 2007;25:3576-3581 ©2007 by American Society of Clinical Oncology

28. . Walz J et al. JCO 2007;25:3576-3581 ©2007 by American Society of Clinical Oncology

29. . Walz J et al. JCO 2007;25:3576-3581 ©2007 by American Society of Clinical Oncology 70% if RP 30% if RP

31. MSKCC nomogram?

33. MSKCC system Doctor assesses comorbidities using an IPad Data sent to CAISIS database Life expectancy algorithm applied Results returned to IPad for patient counseling