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SOUTH AMERICA ENVIRONMENT, SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY,
                                   AND HEALTH NEWSLETTER
214 t h issue, January 2, 2012


    In this issue:
                                                ECUADOR: Galapagos Green Airport Started its Operations

 Ecuador: Galapagos                                                                         After a year of construction, the Ecological Airport started its
    Green Airport.                                                                           operations in the Galapagos Islands, which, it is estimated,
   Climate Change: Geo-                                                                     will receive between 800 and 1,000 passengers daily.
    Engineering Against
    Climate Change.
                                                                                             Despite that the last details aren’t finished yet; it is expected
   Science: Four Planets in
                                                                                             to use all excess material from the old airport as stone or
    ‘Habitable Zones’.
                                                                                             wood, and thereby reuse the existing material to maximum.
   Health: U.N.
    Contemplates Ban on
    Vaccine Preservative.                                                                    Ezequiel Barrenechea, Principal of the America Corporation
   Climate Change:                                                                          for Latin American and the Caribbean, and President of the
    Humans Changing                                                                          Galapagos’ Airport, said that with the use of solar energy,
    Saltiness of the Seas.                                                                   water reuse and the better use of winds, among other
   Science: Farm Soils                                                                      environmental innovations supported in technology,
    Determine Environmental                                                                  Galapagos will become the main place in the world where an
    Fate of Phosphorous
                                                                                             ecological airport operates.
   Peru: Will Send an
    Expedition to Antarctica.
   Climate Change: The                                                                      “It is the first and only, for now, truly green and certified by
    U.N.‘s Global Warming                                                                    the LEED Gold” confirmed Barrenechea, referring to the
    Forecasts Are Performing                                                                 rating system for sustainable buildings developed by the
                                     Photo by photographer23 (flickr user). Under Creative
    Badly                                                                                    Green Building Council of America.
    Next events:
                                     The building of the terminal will
                                                                                               “Walls are white and windows are
                                     be officially opened the first week
 February 1, 2013                                                                             huge. This way, we use a larger
    REO S&T School Contest
                                     of February 2013. The track and                           amount of natural light. The
    Launching                        the platform are expected to be                           building is located in a zone where
                                                                                               winds are predominant in order to
   February 4, 2013                 ready in August. Construction of
                                                                                               reduce interior temperature, and
    World Cancer Day                 this terminal will cost $24 million.
                                                                                               therefore the use of air
   March 22, 2013                   “(…) it’s a World Natural Heritage,                       conditioned” explained Ezequiel
    World Water Day                  and icon as far for the protection                        Barrenechea, President of the
   March 23, 2013                   of nature is concerned,” said                             Galapagos’ airport.
    Earth Hour                       Barrenechea.
   April17-19, 2013                                                                           Regarding water, as the airport is located in a zone where there is not
    IFT Energy                       Read       more    at:    http://                         potable water, a desalination plant has been installed in the airport to
    Santiago, Chile                  www.ecuadortimes.net/2012/12/21/                          recycle toilette water. The photovoltaic system is been designed to supply
   April 22, 2013                   galapagos-green-airport-started-its-                      13% of the electrical energy required, but it is expected to increase to
    Earth Day                        operations-2/                                             25%.
   June 5, 2013                                                                               Read more at: http://elcomercio.pe/actualidad/1512384/noticia-primer-
    World Environment Day                                                                      aeropuerto-ecologico-mundo-se-inaugurara-hoy-ecuador


          The information contained herein was gathered from news sources from across the region, and the views expressed below do not
                           necessarily reflect those of the Regional Environmental HUB Office or of our constituent posts.

                            Addressees interested in sharing any ESTH-related events of USG interest are welcome to do so.
                                        For questions or comments, please contact us at quevedoa@state.gov.

                                                            * Free translation prepared by REO staff.
CLIMATE CHANGE: Geo-Engineering Against Climate Change                                                                                       By Albert Ang

Seeding the oceans with iron may not address carbon emissions.

Numerous geo-engineering schemes have been suggested as possible ways to reduce levels of the
greenhouse gas carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and so reduce the risk of global warming and
climate change. One such technology involves dispersing large quantities of iron salts in the oceans
to fertilize otherwise barren parts of the sea and trigger the growth of algal blooms and other pho-
tosynthesizing marine life. Photosynthesis requires carbon dioxide as its feedstock and when the
algae die they will sink to the bottom of the sea taking the locked in carbon with them.

Unfortunately, present plans for seeding the oceans with iron fail to take into account several fac-
tors that could scupper those plans, according to Daniel Harrison of the University of Sydney Insti- Photo by Explain-that-stuff (flickr user). Under
tute of Marine Science, NSW. Writing in the International Journal of Global Warming, Harrison has Creative Commons License.
calculated the impact of iron seeding schemes in terms of the efficiency of spreading the iron, the
impact it will most likely have on algal growth the tonnage of carbon dioxide per square kilometer of ocean surface that will be
actually absorbed compared to the hypothetical figures suggested by advocates of the approach.

"If society wishes to limit the contribution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide to global warming then the need to find economical
methods of carbon dioxide sequestration is now urgent," Harrison's new calculations take into account not only the carbon diox-
ide that will be certainly be sequestered permanently to the deep ocean but also subtracts the many losses due to ventilation,
nutrient stealing, greenhouse gas production and the carbon dioxide emitted by the burning of fossil fuels to produce the iron
salts and to power their transportation and distribution at sea.

Read more at: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-12/ip-gac121912.php


SCIENCE: Four Planets in 'Habitable Zones' Spotted Within Spitting Distance of Earth
                                                                                                                                         By Pete Spotts

                                                                 Astronomers say they have uncovered evidence for what could be four super-
                                                                 Earth planets orbiting within the habitable zones of two stars within 22 light-
                                                                 years of Earth.

                                                                 Three of those candidate planets are among a tightly packed clutch of five
                                                                 that orbit Gliese 667C, part of a triple-star system 22 light-years away in the
                                                                 constellation Scorpius. The other possible planet is one of five orbiting tau
                                                                 Ceti, a sun-like star 12 light-years away in the constellation Cetus.

                                                           Taken together, the detections not only add to accumulating evidence that
                                                           planets look to be more common than stars – and that planets in habitable
                                                           zones could be more common than previously thought, some of researchers
This diagram shows an artist's rendering comparing our own
                                                           reporting the finds say.
solar system to Kepler-22, a star system containing the first
'habitable zone' planet discovered by NASA's Kepler mission.
The 'habitable zone' is a region where under the right           The finds also illustrate the power of improved statistical tools to boldly un-
conditions, liquid water can form stable pools on the surface.   cover candidate planets where no planet had been found before.
Credits: NASA /Ames/JPL-Caltech

                                                       The evidence for these candidate planets requires independent confirmation,
the researchers caution. Still, the tools represent "a real breakthrough," says Steven Vogt, an astronomer at the University of Cali-
fornia at Santa Cruz and a member of the team reporting the results for tau Ceti. The approach the team took leaves only about
one chance in 3 million that the detections could herald something other than a planet.

Read full article at: http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2012/1219/Four-planets-in-habitable-zones-spotted-within-spitting-distance-of-Earth
HEALTH: CHANGE: World Bank Unveils 10-Year Environmental Strategy
CLIMATE U.N. Contemplates Ban on Vaccine Preservative                                                                                        By Alison Bryant
                                                                                                                                               By Lisa Friedman


Concerns about a vaccine preservative long thought put to rest are roaring back to life as a
United Nations program considers a worldwide ban on the additive.

The U.N. Environment Program is toiling with the idea of putting the kibosh on thimerosal, an
organic mercury compound widely used as a preservative in multidose vaccines since the 1930s.
More than a decade ago, a public scare that the additive could cause autism led to the eradica-
tion of the ingredient from most childhood vaccines in the U.S. and Europe. But a 2004 FDA re-
                                                                                                                        Photo by Thompson Rivers University (flickr user).
port quashed the argument, saying there's no link between thimerosal and autism.                                        Under Creative Commons License.



Now health officials and experts find themselves again quelling that same fear. Why put forth the effort? Thimerosal plays a vital
role in keeping vaccines fresh and ready to use in the developing world, where refrigeration and single-dose vials may not be an
option. If the preservative goes, some experts say, disease could resurge in areas where it has been tempered by vaccines.

Read more: http://www.fiercevaccines.com/story/un-contemplates-ban-vaccine-preservative/2012-12-18#ixzz2FWsTjZny


CLIMATE CHANGE: Humans Changing Saltiness of the Seas                                                                                    By Larry O’Hanlon
When you hear about climate change it's most often about melting glaciers and sea
ice, increasing frequency of heatwaves and powerful storms. Maybe, just maybe,
you'll hear about the acidification of the oceans too. What you don't hear about is the
saltiness of the seas. But that's changing too, according to a new piece of research just
published in Geophysical Research Letters.

The saltiness, or salinity, of the oceans is controlled by how much water is entering
the oceans from rivers and rain versus how much is evaporating; what my kids recog-
nize as “The Water Cycle.” The more sunshine and heat there is, the more water can
evaporate, leaving the salts behind in higher concentrations in some places. Over
time, those changes spread out as water moves, changing the salinity profiles of the                     Photo by Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory (flickr user). Under
                                                                                                         Creative Commons License.
oceans.

Oceanographers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory fingerprinted salinity
changes from 1955 to 2004 from 60 degrees south latitude to 60 degrees north latitude and down to the depth of 700 meters in
the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans. They found salinity changes that matched what they expected from such natural changes as
El Niño or volcanic eruptions (the latter can lower evaporation by shading and cooling the atmosphere).

Reat more about this topic at: http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate-change-and-sea-salt-121219.html



SCIENCE: Farm Soils Determine Environmental Fate of Phosphorous                                                                        By Brow University


Just 20 years ago, the soils of the Amazon basin were thought unsuitable for large-scale
agriculture, but then industrial agriculture — and the ability to fertilize on a massive scale
— came to the Amazon. What were once the poorest soils in the world now produce
crops at a rate that rivals that of global breadbaskets. Soils no longer seem to be the
driver — or the limiter — of agricultural productivity. But a new Brown University-led
study of three soybean growing regions, including Brazil, finds that soils have taken on a
new role: mediating the environmental consequences of modern farming.

Read more at: http://www.sciencenewsline.com/articles/2012121723290020.html


                                                                                                             Photo by openDemocracy (flickr user). Under Creative Commons
                                                                                                             License.
P E R U : W i l l Se n d a n E x p e d i t i o n t o t h e A n t a r c t i c A f t e r F i ve Y e a r s *

                                                              The Peruvian Government announced that next January 5, 2013, the Antar XXI Expedition
                                                              will depart from Callao-Lima to the Antarctic on board the Humboldt research ship.

                                                              Ambassador Nicolas Roncagliolo of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, provided details on the
                                                              expedition to Andina, the official news agency.

                                                              The official explained that the research expedition seeks to re-establish the presence of
                                                              Peru in the Antarctic, as these trips had been suspended during the last five years.
                                                              “Thanks to the support of other countries, we performed our maintenance duties on the
                                                              Machu Picchu Station and a few studies. This time, our country will count on its own re-
                                                              sources to strengthen scientific activities and, therefore, its permanence in the Antarctic.
Photo by Mark Brandon (flickr user). Under Creative Commons

                                          Discussing the Humboldt itinerary. Javier Gaviola, director of Hydrography and Navigation
of the Peruvian Army, explained that the Humboldt will stop at Punta Arenas, in the south of Chile, to finish logistic operations and
to wait for the best weather conditions to cross the Drake Passage. “If weather is too windy, crossing Drake Passage might take up
to four days. With regular conditions, however, it takes only two days” he explained.

The next stop will be Frei Air Park, the Chilean Antarctic Base, where a Peruvian Air Force airplane will carry the rest of the team,
made up of researchers, military members and journalists. From there, the ship will go to Machu Picchu Station, where researchers
will work until the first week of March, when they will return to Lima.

The Humboldt belongs to the Institute of the Peruvian Sea (IMARPE according its initials in Spanish). It will carry 23 researchers. It
was upgraded with a 6.9 million dollar investment, according to IMARPE’s President German Vasquez.

Read more at: http://elcomercio.pe/actualidad/1511712/noticia-expedicion-peruana-volvera-antartida-despues-cinco-anos

C L IMA T E C H A N G E : The UN's Global Warming Forecasts Are Performing Very, Very Badly
                                                                                                                                              By Patrick Michaels
For nearly a week, a leaked draft of next year’s “Fifth Assessment Report” on
climate change, by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), has been burning up the blogosphere. Since it’s everywhere, I’ll
take my liberties and join the party. The most impressive figure shows how
badly one of their most-cited series of predictions is faring. Explanation follows.

The colored shading shows the projected range of global annual average surface
temperature change from 1990 to 2015 for models used in the succession of
IPCC assessment reports, labeled “FAR” (First Assessment Report, 1990), SAR
(1995), TAR (2001) and AR4 (Fourth, 2007). The “emissions scenarios” generally
cover the range from each report during the period from 1990 to 2015, and the
changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration that have been observed                            Photo by Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory (flickr user). Under Creative
                                                                                                       Commons License.
pretty much fall within this range. The very large grey zone is irrelevant to the
forecasts that were made.

The three small black rectangles each year are the observed global temperature histories in common use. For every year except
the last one (2011), the black “whiskers” are an estimate of the 90% confidence range for the observed temperature. Since the
three records pretty much use the same data, I wouldn’t have a lot of faith in the reality of those whiskers. Data were not fully
available for 2011, so any whiskers would not be comparable to the others. Quite obviously, for more than a decade, the observa-
tions have fallen near or below the lower end of the IPCC projected range. Houston, we have a problem.

Will this chart will be altered or disappear completely in the final IPCC report due in 2013? Consider what happened the last time
around, in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report.

Read more: http://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmichaels/2012/12/18/the-uns-global-warming-forecasts-are-performing-very-very-badly/

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Newsletter 214

  • 1. SOUTH AMERICA ENVIRONMENT, SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND HEALTH NEWSLETTER 214 t h issue, January 2, 2012 In this issue: ECUADOR: Galapagos Green Airport Started its Operations  Ecuador: Galapagos After a year of construction, the Ecological Airport started its Green Airport. operations in the Galapagos Islands, which, it is estimated,  Climate Change: Geo- will receive between 800 and 1,000 passengers daily. Engineering Against Climate Change. Despite that the last details aren’t finished yet; it is expected  Science: Four Planets in to use all excess material from the old airport as stone or ‘Habitable Zones’. wood, and thereby reuse the existing material to maximum.  Health: U.N. Contemplates Ban on Vaccine Preservative. Ezequiel Barrenechea, Principal of the America Corporation  Climate Change: for Latin American and the Caribbean, and President of the Humans Changing Galapagos’ Airport, said that with the use of solar energy, Saltiness of the Seas. water reuse and the better use of winds, among other  Science: Farm Soils environmental innovations supported in technology, Determine Environmental Galapagos will become the main place in the world where an Fate of Phosphorous ecological airport operates.  Peru: Will Send an Expedition to Antarctica.  Climate Change: The “It is the first and only, for now, truly green and certified by U.N.‘s Global Warming the LEED Gold” confirmed Barrenechea, referring to the Forecasts Are Performing rating system for sustainable buildings developed by the Photo by photographer23 (flickr user). Under Creative Badly Green Building Council of America. Next events: The building of the terminal will “Walls are white and windows are be officially opened the first week  February 1, 2013 huge. This way, we use a larger REO S&T School Contest of February 2013. The track and amount of natural light. The Launching the platform are expected to be building is located in a zone where winds are predominant in order to  February 4, 2013 ready in August. Construction of reduce interior temperature, and World Cancer Day this terminal will cost $24 million. therefore the use of air  March 22, 2013 “(…) it’s a World Natural Heritage, conditioned” explained Ezequiel World Water Day and icon as far for the protection Barrenechea, President of the  March 23, 2013 of nature is concerned,” said Galapagos’ airport. Earth Hour Barrenechea.  April17-19, 2013 Regarding water, as the airport is located in a zone where there is not IFT Energy Read more at: http:// potable water, a desalination plant has been installed in the airport to Santiago, Chile www.ecuadortimes.net/2012/12/21/ recycle toilette water. The photovoltaic system is been designed to supply  April 22, 2013 galapagos-green-airport-started-its- 13% of the electrical energy required, but it is expected to increase to Earth Day operations-2/ 25%.  June 5, 2013 Read more at: http://elcomercio.pe/actualidad/1512384/noticia-primer- World Environment Day aeropuerto-ecologico-mundo-se-inaugurara-hoy-ecuador The information contained herein was gathered from news sources from across the region, and the views expressed below do not necessarily reflect those of the Regional Environmental HUB Office or of our constituent posts. Addressees interested in sharing any ESTH-related events of USG interest are welcome to do so. For questions or comments, please contact us at quevedoa@state.gov. * Free translation prepared by REO staff.
  • 2. CLIMATE CHANGE: Geo-Engineering Against Climate Change By Albert Ang Seeding the oceans with iron may not address carbon emissions. Numerous geo-engineering schemes have been suggested as possible ways to reduce levels of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and so reduce the risk of global warming and climate change. One such technology involves dispersing large quantities of iron salts in the oceans to fertilize otherwise barren parts of the sea and trigger the growth of algal blooms and other pho- tosynthesizing marine life. Photosynthesis requires carbon dioxide as its feedstock and when the algae die they will sink to the bottom of the sea taking the locked in carbon with them. Unfortunately, present plans for seeding the oceans with iron fail to take into account several fac- tors that could scupper those plans, according to Daniel Harrison of the University of Sydney Insti- Photo by Explain-that-stuff (flickr user). Under tute of Marine Science, NSW. Writing in the International Journal of Global Warming, Harrison has Creative Commons License. calculated the impact of iron seeding schemes in terms of the efficiency of spreading the iron, the impact it will most likely have on algal growth the tonnage of carbon dioxide per square kilometer of ocean surface that will be actually absorbed compared to the hypothetical figures suggested by advocates of the approach. "If society wishes to limit the contribution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide to global warming then the need to find economical methods of carbon dioxide sequestration is now urgent," Harrison's new calculations take into account not only the carbon diox- ide that will be certainly be sequestered permanently to the deep ocean but also subtracts the many losses due to ventilation, nutrient stealing, greenhouse gas production and the carbon dioxide emitted by the burning of fossil fuels to produce the iron salts and to power their transportation and distribution at sea. Read more at: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-12/ip-gac121912.php SCIENCE: Four Planets in 'Habitable Zones' Spotted Within Spitting Distance of Earth By Pete Spotts Astronomers say they have uncovered evidence for what could be four super- Earth planets orbiting within the habitable zones of two stars within 22 light- years of Earth. Three of those candidate planets are among a tightly packed clutch of five that orbit Gliese 667C, part of a triple-star system 22 light-years away in the constellation Scorpius. The other possible planet is one of five orbiting tau Ceti, a sun-like star 12 light-years away in the constellation Cetus. Taken together, the detections not only add to accumulating evidence that planets look to be more common than stars – and that planets in habitable zones could be more common than previously thought, some of researchers This diagram shows an artist's rendering comparing our own reporting the finds say. solar system to Kepler-22, a star system containing the first 'habitable zone' planet discovered by NASA's Kepler mission. The 'habitable zone' is a region where under the right The finds also illustrate the power of improved statistical tools to boldly un- conditions, liquid water can form stable pools on the surface. cover candidate planets where no planet had been found before. Credits: NASA /Ames/JPL-Caltech The evidence for these candidate planets requires independent confirmation, the researchers caution. Still, the tools represent "a real breakthrough," says Steven Vogt, an astronomer at the University of Cali- fornia at Santa Cruz and a member of the team reporting the results for tau Ceti. The approach the team took leaves only about one chance in 3 million that the detections could herald something other than a planet. Read full article at: http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2012/1219/Four-planets-in-habitable-zones-spotted-within-spitting-distance-of-Earth
  • 3. HEALTH: CHANGE: World Bank Unveils 10-Year Environmental Strategy CLIMATE U.N. Contemplates Ban on Vaccine Preservative By Alison Bryant By Lisa Friedman Concerns about a vaccine preservative long thought put to rest are roaring back to life as a United Nations program considers a worldwide ban on the additive. The U.N. Environment Program is toiling with the idea of putting the kibosh on thimerosal, an organic mercury compound widely used as a preservative in multidose vaccines since the 1930s. More than a decade ago, a public scare that the additive could cause autism led to the eradica- tion of the ingredient from most childhood vaccines in the U.S. and Europe. But a 2004 FDA re- Photo by Thompson Rivers University (flickr user). port quashed the argument, saying there's no link between thimerosal and autism. Under Creative Commons License. Now health officials and experts find themselves again quelling that same fear. Why put forth the effort? Thimerosal plays a vital role in keeping vaccines fresh and ready to use in the developing world, where refrigeration and single-dose vials may not be an option. If the preservative goes, some experts say, disease could resurge in areas where it has been tempered by vaccines. Read more: http://www.fiercevaccines.com/story/un-contemplates-ban-vaccine-preservative/2012-12-18#ixzz2FWsTjZny CLIMATE CHANGE: Humans Changing Saltiness of the Seas By Larry O’Hanlon When you hear about climate change it's most often about melting glaciers and sea ice, increasing frequency of heatwaves and powerful storms. Maybe, just maybe, you'll hear about the acidification of the oceans too. What you don't hear about is the saltiness of the seas. But that's changing too, according to a new piece of research just published in Geophysical Research Letters. The saltiness, or salinity, of the oceans is controlled by how much water is entering the oceans from rivers and rain versus how much is evaporating; what my kids recog- nize as “The Water Cycle.” The more sunshine and heat there is, the more water can evaporate, leaving the salts behind in higher concentrations in some places. Over time, those changes spread out as water moves, changing the salinity profiles of the Photo by Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory (flickr user). Under Creative Commons License. oceans. Oceanographers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory fingerprinted salinity changes from 1955 to 2004 from 60 degrees south latitude to 60 degrees north latitude and down to the depth of 700 meters in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans. They found salinity changes that matched what they expected from such natural changes as El Niño or volcanic eruptions (the latter can lower evaporation by shading and cooling the atmosphere). Reat more about this topic at: http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate-change-and-sea-salt-121219.html SCIENCE: Farm Soils Determine Environmental Fate of Phosphorous By Brow University Just 20 years ago, the soils of the Amazon basin were thought unsuitable for large-scale agriculture, but then industrial agriculture — and the ability to fertilize on a massive scale — came to the Amazon. What were once the poorest soils in the world now produce crops at a rate that rivals that of global breadbaskets. Soils no longer seem to be the driver — or the limiter — of agricultural productivity. But a new Brown University-led study of three soybean growing regions, including Brazil, finds that soils have taken on a new role: mediating the environmental consequences of modern farming. Read more at: http://www.sciencenewsline.com/articles/2012121723290020.html Photo by openDemocracy (flickr user). Under Creative Commons License.
  • 4. P E R U : W i l l Se n d a n E x p e d i t i o n t o t h e A n t a r c t i c A f t e r F i ve Y e a r s * The Peruvian Government announced that next January 5, 2013, the Antar XXI Expedition will depart from Callao-Lima to the Antarctic on board the Humboldt research ship. Ambassador Nicolas Roncagliolo of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, provided details on the expedition to Andina, the official news agency. The official explained that the research expedition seeks to re-establish the presence of Peru in the Antarctic, as these trips had been suspended during the last five years. “Thanks to the support of other countries, we performed our maintenance duties on the Machu Picchu Station and a few studies. This time, our country will count on its own re- sources to strengthen scientific activities and, therefore, its permanence in the Antarctic. Photo by Mark Brandon (flickr user). Under Creative Commons Discussing the Humboldt itinerary. Javier Gaviola, director of Hydrography and Navigation of the Peruvian Army, explained that the Humboldt will stop at Punta Arenas, in the south of Chile, to finish logistic operations and to wait for the best weather conditions to cross the Drake Passage. “If weather is too windy, crossing Drake Passage might take up to four days. With regular conditions, however, it takes only two days” he explained. The next stop will be Frei Air Park, the Chilean Antarctic Base, where a Peruvian Air Force airplane will carry the rest of the team, made up of researchers, military members and journalists. From there, the ship will go to Machu Picchu Station, where researchers will work until the first week of March, when they will return to Lima. The Humboldt belongs to the Institute of the Peruvian Sea (IMARPE according its initials in Spanish). It will carry 23 researchers. It was upgraded with a 6.9 million dollar investment, according to IMARPE’s President German Vasquez. Read more at: http://elcomercio.pe/actualidad/1511712/noticia-expedicion-peruana-volvera-antartida-despues-cinco-anos C L IMA T E C H A N G E : The UN's Global Warming Forecasts Are Performing Very, Very Badly By Patrick Michaels For nearly a week, a leaked draft of next year’s “Fifth Assessment Report” on climate change, by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has been burning up the blogosphere. Since it’s everywhere, I’ll take my liberties and join the party. The most impressive figure shows how badly one of their most-cited series of predictions is faring. Explanation follows. The colored shading shows the projected range of global annual average surface temperature change from 1990 to 2015 for models used in the succession of IPCC assessment reports, labeled “FAR” (First Assessment Report, 1990), SAR (1995), TAR (2001) and AR4 (Fourth, 2007). The “emissions scenarios” generally cover the range from each report during the period from 1990 to 2015, and the changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration that have been observed Photo by Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory (flickr user). Under Creative Commons License. pretty much fall within this range. The very large grey zone is irrelevant to the forecasts that were made. The three small black rectangles each year are the observed global temperature histories in common use. For every year except the last one (2011), the black “whiskers” are an estimate of the 90% confidence range for the observed temperature. Since the three records pretty much use the same data, I wouldn’t have a lot of faith in the reality of those whiskers. Data were not fully available for 2011, so any whiskers would not be comparable to the others. Quite obviously, for more than a decade, the observa- tions have fallen near or below the lower end of the IPCC projected range. Houston, we have a problem. Will this chart will be altered or disappear completely in the final IPCC report due in 2013? Consider what happened the last time around, in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report. Read more: http://www.forbes.com/sites/patrickmichaels/2012/12/18/the-uns-global-warming-forecasts-are-performing-very-very-badly/