1. Multiple Benefits of Short
Lived Climate Pollutant
Mitigation for Latin America
and the Caribbean
Johan C.I. Kuylenstierna
Director, Stockholm Environment Institute York Centre
johan.kuylenstiernaUK@sei-international.org

2. UNEP/WMO Integrated
Assessment of Black
Carbon and
Tropospheric Ozone
Johan Kuylenstierna, Stockholm
Environment Institute, SEI, Scientific
Coordinator and lead author
Drew Shindell, NASA-GISS, Chair;
Vice-Chairs: Frank Raes, Joint
Research Centre, EC; V. Ramanathan,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography;
Kim Oanh, AIT; Luis Cifuentes,
Catholic University of Chile
Coordinating lead authors: David
Streets, Argonne National Laboratory;
David Fowler, CEH; Lisa Emberson,
SEI; Martin Williams, Kings College
London
50 Contributors, over 100 reviewers
UNEP/WMO Coordinators: Volodymyr
Demkine, UNEP / Liisa Jalkanen, WMO

3. Climate and Clean Air Coalition to reduce
Short-Lived Climate Pollutants
There is a lot of scientific and political interest – Why?

4. What are short-lived climate pollutants?
Black carbon
Methane
Tropospheric ozone
some Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs )
• Relatively short-lived in the atmosphere
• Act as air pollutants (except HFCs)
• One of the causes of global warming
Multiple benefits of reducing SLCPs:
• Reduce air pollution - Protect health and crops
• Slow down near-term global warming, reduce
regional impacts of climate change

5. stratosphere Tropospheric Ozone – formed from precursor emissions
Stratospheric O3
8 – 15 km
chemical production chemical destruction
O3
troposphere
CH4 CO VOCs NOX
deposition

6. Lifetimes in the atmosphere
HFCs Average of mix: 15 years

7. Air pollution: unfinished business on the
sustainable development agenda
Outdoor air pollution
“Some progress” : Despite some
Progress towards global progress, outdoor air pollution
environmental goals continues to have serious impacts on
(UNEP GEO-5) the environment & human health.
About 1.2 –Urban (3.7 – urban plus rural) million premature
deaths each year due to outside air pollution.
Indoor air pollution
“little or no progress”
“Indoor air pollution from particulate matter continues to
have major health impacts, particularly on women and
children.”
• about3 billion people cook and heat using open fires
• around 2 million people die each year prematurely from
illness attributable to indoor air pollution
Source: WHO statistics

8. Ground level
ozone is
increasing
Due to methane
and other
precursors
Reducing ground level
ozone:
• protects public health
• reduces ozone damage
to crops
Source: UNEP GEO-5, HTAP

9. Impact of the Tropospheric Ozone on Crop yields
Exposure of wheat to ozone in Pakistan
Filtered „Clean‟ air
Air with
ambient
ozone

10. Global and regional temperature changes relative to
2009 projected under the Assessment reference
scenario for different global regions
LAC vulnerable to warming

11. A package of 16 measures can substantially reduce
emissions and achieve multiple benefits
• Mitigation measures ranked by net climate impact (using GWP) of emission
changes
• Considering CO, CH4, BC, OC, SO2, NOX, NMVOCs, and CO2
• Picked the top measures – about 90% of warming benefit
Black carbon measures
• addressing emissions from incomplete
combustion
- BC, OC, methane, CO, NMVOCs
Methane measures
• reducing methane emissions
• No technical breakthroughs
• These measures already implemented in many countries
• Cost-effective

12. The measures aiming at reducing methane emissions
Intermittent aeration -paddy Recovery from wastewater Recovery from oil and gas
Recovery from landfill Recovery from livestock manure /change feed
Coal mine methane capture Reducing pipeline leakage

13. The measures aiming to reduce black carbon
emissions
Improved biomass stoves Modern coke ovens Remove big smokers / DPF
Cooking with clean fuel
Improved brick kilns
Pellet biomass heating stoves
Coal briquettes replacing coal Reduce agricultural burning Reduce flaring

14. Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to
Reference emissions in 2030
9 BC measures fully implemented in 2030
7 Methane measures fully implemented in 2030

15. Result for Global Temperature Change:
CO2 and SLCP measures are complementary strategies
Source: UNEP/WMO (2011). Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and
Tropospheric Ozone. UNEP, Nairobi

16. The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures

17. The Impact of Methane measures implemented in LAC on global
temperatures

18. The share of global temperature reduction from black carbon measures

19. The Impact of BC measures implemented in LAC on global temperatures

20. Regional Warming Benefits
Comparison of regional mean warming over land (˚C) - change in 2070
compared with 2005 for the reference scenario and the SLCP
measures scenario.

21. Benefits of Reduced Warming rate in Latin America and
the Caribbean
Halving the rate of near term warming in LAC will:
- Reduce the melting rate of glaciers
- Reduce the change to agriculture implied by
increased temperature (e.g. coffee)
- Reduce changes in distribution of different
species, vegetation types, reducing biodiversity loss
- Allow more time for vulnerable communities to
adapt

22. Time series estimates of glacier mass balance in
different regions of the world (from Kaser et al., 2006).
Panel a. shows mass balance normalized to the glacierized area in each
region (specific mass balance), a measure of the relative response of
each region, while Panel b. shows change in total mass balance,
reported in millimetres of sea-level equivalent (SLE)

23. Near-term framing
National action against air pollution
can slow down global warming
Slowing down near-term global warming is important – not just focus on end of
Century temperature
16 measures reduce global warming up to 2040  0.4/0.5oC relative to baseline
 almost halving of temperature rise; 0.7oC reduction in Arctic
Glacier lake
outburst floods
Why slow down near term global warming?
• Bursting glacier lakes;
• increasing heat waves
• Melting arctic land ice, ice caps,  sea level rise
• Allow vulnerable communities to adapt
• Reduce biodiversity impacts
Cannot replace CO2 reductions – we need both –
1. Reducing short-lived climate forcers: slow down near-term global warming
2. CO2 reductions for long term climate protection

24. HEALTH IMPACTS: Implementing the Black
Carbon measures avoids about 2.4 million
premature deaths globally each year
In Latin America and the Caribbean
about 39,000 premature deaths
would be avoided each year

25. CROP YIELD BENEFITS:
About 32 (range 21-57) million tonnes yield loss avoided
in 2030 A. Methane measures
reduces air pollution & saves lives P

26. CROP YIELD BENEFITS:
About 32 (range 21-57) million tonnes yield loss avoided
in 2030 B. Black Carbon measures
reduces air pollution & saves lives P

27. Crop Benefits in Different Countries

28. SLCPs as a way to achieve development
goals (MDGs and Beyond)
Issue of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is closely
linked to many MDGs - pressing needs in LAC:
• Health
• Sustainable energy access
• Food security
• Urban development: waste, sanitation/
sewerage, and sustainable transport
• Adverse climate change impacts

29. How much does it cost?
Costs of implementing 16 measures
GROUP 1: Cost Savings or Low Cost
e.g. Recovery and utilization of vented gas during oil production;
Replacement of traditional brick kilns with more efficient kilns
GROUP 2: Moderate Cost,
e.g. Coal mines: oxidation of ventilation methane
GROUP 3: High Cost,
e.g. Applying Euro VI/6 standards to vehicles

30. How much does it cost?
Costs of implementing 16 measures
50% of black carbon and methane emission reductions:
Low cost or no-cost  Recovery of methane, better fuel
efficiency
Black carbon measures
• Improved stoves
• Upgraded brick kilns
Methane measures
• Recovery from fossil fuel production
(coal mines; gas distribution)
• Waste / landfill management

31. Conclusions
• Addressing SLCPs is a development issue – countries reducing emissions
will benefit from improved health (avoid 2.4 million premature deaths; 40 000
in LAC+INDOOR!), crop yields (avoid > 30 million tonnes loss; approx. 5.5
million in LAC) every year
• 16 identified measures, implemented by 2030, would reduce global warming
by 0.5oC (0.2-0.7oC) in 2050 halving the rate of warming projected by the
Reference Scenario
• Substantial regional climate benefits: e.g. in the reduce warming by about
0.5 oC in LAC (range 0.2-0.7oC by 2050), reducing climate impacts over this
period
• Near-term measures would improve the chance of not exceeding 2oC
target, but only if CO2 is also addressed, starting now (complementary
strategies; not alternatives)
• The identified measures are all currently in use in different regions around
the world; much wider and more rapid implementation is required to achieve
the full benefits
• Many measures achieve cost savings over time.

32. ‘An Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and
Tropospheric Ozone’
http://www.unep.org/dewa/Portals/67/pdf/BlackCarbon_SDM.pdf
‘Near-term Climate and Clean Air Benefits: Actions for
Controlling Short-Lived Climate Forcers’
http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/SLCF/

33. The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures

34. The share of global temperature reduction from black carbon measures

35. Regional Climate Changes: Preventing Disturbance of
Rainfall Patterns
Change in atmospheric forcing at 2030 relative to the reference
case in the two models.
• Dark areas: where the biggest energy change to the
atmosphere occurs
• This drives regional weather pattern changes

36. Observed (left) and modelled (right) surface BC
concentrations (ng/m3) (Koch et al., 2009a).
• showing rather sparse measurements but reasonable Source: Koch et
correlation between model and measurement al., 2009a

37. Black carbon and ozone concentrations (daily averages)
measured from March 2006 to February 2008 at the GAW-
WMO Global station "Nepal Climate Observatory - Pyramid"
at 5 097 m above mean sea level near Mt. Everest
550 ng m-3
showing values comparable with polluted Source: Bonasoni et al.,
areas during several pre-monsoon day 2010

38. Impact of the Measures on Health and
Crop yields
• Models give PM2.5 and ozone concentrations for health and crop
yield impact assessment
• Concentration-response relationships from literature used to
evaluate global impacts
Exposure of wheat to ozone
in Pakistan
Clean air
Air with
ambient
ozone

39. Warming in different latitude bands due to O3 and
aerosols only following the reference scenario for
emission projections from 2010 to 2030 and then
assuming constant emissions at 2030 levels thereafter
• Largest projected increases in Arctic

40. Crop Benefits in Different Countries

41. Temperature changes over 20th Century
Source: NASA GISS

42. Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to 2005
9 BC measures
reduce
̴80% of BC
Reference: CH4 increases
7 CH4 measures reduce
̴25% of CH4 (2005); or
̴ 40% relative to 2030
BC measures
reduce
CO

43. Health Benefits by Country

44. Annual average surface temperature change (ºC) from
implementing all measures
• Dark areas: where the biggest temperature benefit occurs

45. Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to 2005
Relative to 2005 9 BC measures fully implemented in
2030 reduce approximately:
• 80% of BC emissions
•. 80% of OC emissions
• 65% of CO emissions
• 40% of NOx emissions
7 Methane measures fully implemented in 2030 reduce
approximately:
25% of methane relative to 2005 emissions or
40% of methane relative to projected 2030